Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood
OK, that's one down.
However, the fact that SDO makes results easily manipulated still hasn't changed.
For this, I propose that we bring back VD and VF — but with a twist.
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I don't quite understand the reasoning for this. Whatever the mean you use, VD and VF are MUCH easier to manipulate compared to SDO. To effect SDO, you have to make your girl win somehow. This means only the matches where the the winner is expected to get less than 54% of the votes are susceptible to any manipulation. For VD or VF, you don't have to change the winner to manipulate the results. All you have to do is to keep stuffing the votes for your faction's choice. If you consistently bring in 100 additional votes for your faction's choice, no matter which mean you use, you will raise your character's chance by 100/(average voter size) . In using VD and VF, what would be as important as winning,, perhaps even more important when you consider the ease to bring this about, would be to make sure you pile on your votes in matches your character is likely to win = Making sure your character wins the match by margin of 80 to 20 instead of 70 to 30. Again check the records. Our data from 2008 shows how easily group of merely 50 voters can manipulate the necklace standing in simple VD or VF scheme. Even now, if you can reliably control mere 5% of the voters, you can easily make any tier 1 girl of your choice win the necklace, since who your choice faces won't matter at all. With SDO scheme, even controlling 10% of the voters won't be enough to let your Tier 1 girl win the necklace for sure. 2009 Rozen Meister had to get 20+% voters to cooperate with him to control the necklace in SDO scheme. This means 2000+ voters now days, and even if you can get this many people to work with you, with current SDO + Necklace group round ( where we may get more than 14,000 voters ) you still aren't guaranteed your girl can win barring some luck.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple_R
I agree. Rewarding girls for crushing victories would also encourage more voters to show up even for predictably lop-sided matches favoring their girl. If the aim is to get voters to vote as often as possible, then your idea is a very good one, in my opinion.
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I think records from many professional sports disputes your idea. Having some dominant teams display their dominance do boost ticket sales and TV ratings in the short run, but the overall sales and ratings number for the entire league usually decline if this dominance is kept up for more than a month. Parity among league teams usually results in steady growth of revenues for most of the teams in the league, thus much better in the long run. It also makes occasional flashes of dominance to be much bigger sale, provided that this dominance don't last too long. Translating this to ISML, I believe we are much better served when even the weakest contestant enjoys sizable fan base.
Right now, I think biggest problem ISML has is the dominance of class of 2011 = those who were in 2011 ISML post season. All but one of ISML tiara winner can be found in 2011 ISML post season list. When you have small number of characters dominating the league, you make it very susceptible for all kinds of manipulation. One of my aim when designing a system for ISML is how much it can promote diversity. If we have very diverse groups of voters, and if we have many groups for many different characters, it becomes hard for any single group to taint the record, and we would be less susceptible for a deflation, like the one we saw when Rozen faction left in 2009 postseason . Therefore, I see much more reason to encourage the weaker character's fan base to come out and vote compared to stronger character's fan base. The long term health of ISML depends little bit more on what the losing side's voters will do, compared to what the winning side may do. ( The actions of winning side's voters are important as well. It just is that losing side voters are more likely to react in negative way, which often is of greater concern for the league, overall. ) In these aspects, rewarding a girl for crushing victory more than normal victory is likely to be more harmful than good.
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Most important of all,
let's see what will happen in male+Touhou tournament where we don't have to worry about SDO nor VD. The first day match has been posted. ( http://internationalsaimoe.com/voting/ ) I'm sure all of you concerned with SDO can think up good tests to prove your point on what the results will be. I encourage any models and analysis strategy, provided that these models and analysis scheme is made known before the match starts. True test of models and hypothesis is to make verifiable quantitative predictions. I will accept submission of models or hypothesis until Nov. 24th. If your model and hypothesis succeed in predicting some important numbers ( it is up to you to tell me why a certain number or formula is important ) , I will give your proposal for necklace scoring system revision much greater attention.