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So it would be too tragic for Shizu to break Himeko's key.
See Himeko's expression here? Too tragic.
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Since I don't see any way for Shindouji to win the finals, we will see more more of Himeko's heartbreaking expressions when Shindouji loses, whether it is in the finals or semi-finals. It is tragic, but it is also unvoidable.
However, Shindouji does have a realistic chance to make it to the finals.
Achita is the only school that I think has a guarranteed ticket to the finals at this point. Shiraitodai losing is very realistic for two reasons:
1) It would be a very interesting plot twist which I is why I can see it happening (the Saki VS Teru will happen in the individuals anyway)
2) All of Shiraitodai's players have had their abilities throughly explored and then defeated:
A) Teru's rampage was stopped
B) Sumire's "Piercing Arrows" were defeated
C) Shibuya Takami's ability wasn't interesting enough to be worth seing again
D) Matano Seiko was completely dominated
E) Oohoshi Awai has already had her ability defeated by all three of her opponents.
So I'd say the odds of Shiraitodai making the finals are less than 50% at this point.
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Shindouji is basically in last place for all 5 matches and if you guys remember, Shindouji is a school that consistently do badly in the finals.
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Actually, for a brief momment Shindouji was in the lead:
http://www.mangahere.com/manga/saki_...a/c018/27.html