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The additional envelope is really irrelevant to the chapel. It just provides a motive and possibly means. It makes the most sense to me that Rosa is being manipulated in game 2 and it fits with several scenes that hint at such.
Later in game 2, we have the scene where Rosa, Maria, and Battler are returning to the parlor while it was locked the whole time and only Rosa has all the keys. How does the letter appear on the table? Rosa placing it there is the most likely scenario. She says Maria didn't do it. Genji couldn't have gotten in the locked room. The only other option is that someone is hiding in the room.
The problem with hiding is that people are the most dead in game 2 out of any other game. The only deaths that are maybe questionable are Jessica (though Battler checks her out some), Kanon (via his furniture-self dying and him assuming his real name), and... that's it. Even if others were faking death, they still couldn't get in the room.
The likeliest scenario to me is that Rosa placed the letter. But why did she do it? Probably because she was trying to get something out of Battler. After she fails and they split up, she is in the chapel asking for Beatrice.
I think the events of Natsuhi's room give us a big hint. First, the door and windows were locked from the inside. This means only George, Shannon, Gohda, and possibly hidden person X (even though there is no hidden place in red).
I can imagine a couple ways it could play out, but the situation seems to point to Gohda being stabbed to death, George being stabbed, and then him shooting Shannon. It ends with George locking the door and waiting for help (Genji heard the gunshot and finds him and goes looking for Nanjo?), but he bleeds out.
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