[Xacual]

Yeah I think it was poor information gathering on Lawrence's part. He was so sure that armor would be a good thing to take because in all the time he has been working as a merchant it has probably always been a sure thing to make a decent profit. Remember Lawrence has only been working for 7 years right, with maybe a few years before that apprenticing or just observing people in the field. If you've watched a town and see that a certain product is always sold and used there during those years you'd be kind of lazy to keep checking on it after a while.

Of course that doesn't change the fact that no one outside of Rubinhaigen was talking about it even though it should have been a big deal in the area. So maybe a possible plot hole though I could see how it might have been kept out of the public ear by the church up until an announcement.

That's my thought on how Lawrence got into the mess. Like the Guild guy said, he got greedy and didn't stop to think about it.