Quote:
Originally Posted by Vexx
You are watching Libya collapse... as word of this spreads, it will split unit cohesion, more of the professional and technical classes will revolt... the army leaders are cutting their own throats in the end.
There was a point where I thought they might have worked it out ... but you kill enough cousins and uncles and aunts and friends -- and you piss *everyone* off.
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The problem is that Libya is an oil-exporting country. I don't really care if Gaddafi gets waxed the way Park Chung Hee does, but if he steps down it would be a whole lot easier on everyone's pockets for the rest of this year due to inflating oil prices. The King of Bahrain did it the smart way so he doesn't further the angst and dire economic conditions on his people due to withdrawing investments and hiking costs around the world.
Everyone is scared stiff and buying out all the oil in the market to hoard, forcing oil prices to rise. Soon more speculators will jump in to call longs and the price of oil is going to hit $2.50 at the pump ($1.97 now). This will result in increased transport costs, which then leads to increased logistical expenditure around the world, and the follow up will be rising prices of anything that can be shipped.
This includes food. Get ready to turn that lawn into a small potato garden.
P.S And if the state breaks down into a civil war, it is going to become another Afghanistan. It is a place where the rural and urban areas are very socially divided.