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Old 2011-09-03, 15:49   Link #16257
Aria Company
Join Date: Nov 2003
Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
Material for up to six nuclear warheads doesn't seem like a lot when the historical value of such a weapon is as a deterrent factor against other nuclear powers and non-nuclear powers. A deterrent factor they have not really had up to this point against several nuclear powers that can be sometimes cross with Iran.

Add to this that their missile technology does not have the range to act as a deterrent against the United States (principle nuclear power that has been cross with Iran), I don't see the value of a small nuclear program other than to ge everyone around you even more cross with Iran. They do have the range to hit Israel, US bases in the Middle East, and maybe some parts of Eastern Europe, Russia, and China. Hitting Israel sounds like the worst mistake they could make honestly. No only will that make several countries cross with Iran, but I would not put it pastIsrael to have something just in case someone tried to nuke them. And whatever it is will not be pretty.

However, no one believes that they are doing this for fuel...which would be a logical reason for tis that no one believes the Iranian government to be entirely the mental sense of the word. Too much bad blood from 1979 onwards for the Americans to trust Iran at this stage of the game.
Iran does have a strong conventional deterrent in being able to shut down the Straits of Hormuz though. The US can forcibly reopen them, but that would take at least a few weeks, probably cost us a carrier group if it can't get out of the gulf in time, and in the time it takes to reopen the strait and convince ship owners it's safe to traverse, the world's economy would collapse as oil would soar to hundreds of dollars a barrel. They don't really need nuclear weapons. Unless we get another bush type in the white house.
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