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We'll have to sit through the movie first and foremost. By the time that is released on Blu-Ray, we're looking at mid-2012 before KyoAni could decide to make a third season.
I too think it's only a matter of time, but they also don't want to hasten it, because otherwise, it won't last long enough to be remembered. So, late 2012/early 2013 is when I would expect a third season.
As for how they'd adapt the manga, I'm pretty sure the manga will be bundled into one once all the chapters for this volume have been released, so it would make sense if they did that with the anime as well.
Of course, first, we'll have to see if we'll ever get a third season.
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