Half way point, according to the tracker, with the exception of Toyone, I'm voting for girls ranking 1st-9th (Toyone is 12th right now)...
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Looking at the later groups, Saki probably won't win any of 14-16, so getting half of all first places should require Ryuuka, Nodoka, and Momo/Kirame to sweep 11-13. I think they're on pace to break Negima's record by the end of the second preliminaries.
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Let see...
Group 12 - It's between Nodoka and Niku from Day 1...
Group 13 - Nadeko is there to stop the Saki madness. Will she be strong enough is another thing (Nisemonogatari is underperforming...)
Group 14 - Izumi is the only notable Saki girl. With Mio and Hina in this group, though, she has no chance.
Group 15 - Arata is here. Komaki didn't appear long enough in anime, so she'll only get the votes from people that had read the manga. Kobato and Shirakiin should be competing for 1-2, though.
Group 16 - No one notable at all.