AnimeSuki Forum - View Single Post - US Elections 2012 Part II: The Conventions, Debates and Election results

Mentar · 2012-11-06, 04:57

flying: That's a pure opinion piece pretty much devoid of any relevant facts.

That Rasmussen is - to put it lightly - GOP-leaning is a simple undisputable fact. His polls are almost consistently the right outlier, plain to see for everyone involved. What's worse: There's enough empirical evidence that he is purposely skewing his results towards his GOP clients all the time, and in the last 2 days before the election "jumping back into the pack" (to protect his reputation).

Now the problem is that if you feed data which you know is skewed by an unknown amount into what's supposed to be an objective statistical model, it's getting diluted. By refusing to add Rasmussen, Nate Silver essentially says "I don't trust your numbers to be genuine". I understand very well why Silver would think so (nobody but the GOP believes Rasmussen to be genuine).

I think we should just wait and see tomorrow. By raising the Obama probability above 90%, he essentially said "Obama will win".

2012-11-06, 04:57	Link #2146
Mentar Banned Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Hamburg Age: 54	flying: That's a pure opinion piece pretty much devoid of any relevant facts. That Rasmussen is - to put it lightly - GOP-leaning is a simple undisputable fact. His polls are almost consistently the right outlier, plain to see for everyone involved. What's worse: There's enough empirical evidence that he is purposely skewing his results towards his GOP clients all the time, and in the last 2 days before the election "jumping back into the pack" (to protect his reputation). Now the problem is that if you feed data which you know is skewed by an unknown amount into what's supposed to be an objective statistical model, it's getting diluted. By refusing to add Rasmussen, Nate Silver essentially says "I don't trust your numbers to be genuine". I understand very well why Silver would think so (nobody but the GOP believes Rasmussen to be genuine). I think we should just wait and see tomorrow. By raising the Obama probability above 90%, he essentially said "Obama will win".