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Originally Posted by Skane
Hmm... I am not very good at explaining theories, but here I go.
Haruhi desires to pair up with Kyon, but there exists an element of doubt within her. At this point of the timeline, Haruhi's feelings towards Kyon has not solidified into anything substantial yet. So... one could say that she is still insecure?
This insecurity probably led her into thinking about what if Kyon paired up with Mikuru instead, since Mikuru can be considered to be her main competitor. By thinking so much about it, she made it come true.
Now that the first blow has been dealt, her insecurities caused her to ponder the possibility of somebody else getting it, and voila, Yuki gets paired with Kyon in the second round.
One could say... Haruhi defeated herself?
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Were there other things from the novels that made you come up with such a conclusion? Cause I still don't quite understand. The first seating plan change occured way before this toothpick incident, before the SOS dan was even made. If Haruhi already wanted to sit behind Kyon back then, she surely would have wanted very much to find mysteries together with Kyon by now, and she was visibly very pissed after missing them, showing that she wanted to be with him very much. It wouldn't make sense, to me, for her to miss the draws both times because of her doubts, and yet successfully sat behind Kyon when the latter incident occured way before the toothpick incident.