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I tried to analyze Ep1 assuming the following things:
- There is only one murderer (though there can be a different mastermind and different accomplices)
- Beatrice didn't use any cheap trick or red herring, she wants Battler to find the truth
- Battler is a reliable witness
If the above statements are true then we can remove from our list the persons who died in the first twilight
Kyrie X
Rudolf X
Shannon X
Gohda X
Rosa X
Krauss X
Then we have the red truth:
Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not murderers.
there is no better alibi than this.
Genji X
Kumasawa X
Nanjo X
But from Episode5 we have also
o Battler-kun is not the culprit.
o Battler-kun has not killed anyone.
o This applies to all games.
that's another perfect alibi. Not to mention the Knox rule, but these red truths are even more clear.
Battler X
Then there's Maria who is physically unable to perform such murders
Maria X
Of course Kinzo has a perfect alibi as well
At the start of all games, Kinzo is already dead!
Kinzo X
So we are left with 6 people:
Natsuhi
Eva
Hideyoshi
Kanon
Jessica
George
If we assume there is only one murderer then George, Jessica and Natsuhi have an alibi.
The same applies for Hideyoshi and Eva since:
The two were killed by other people
Natsuhi X
Eva X
Hideyoshi X
Kanon X
Jessica X
The only one that's left is Kanon.
There isn't any red truth that covers him.
Of all the "dead" he's the one who is most likely to have faked his own.
Red truths seem to confirm he didn't die
Battler doesn't see his dead body
The only problem with this is that you'd have to think that Jessica and Nanjo lied about his death. However this is something that can have and explanation and that's a trick that has been used already in famous mystery novels.
In case the "single murderer" theory isn't true, Kanon still needs to be one of the murderers, and there's no need to imagine multiple murderers if you can explain a mystery with a single one.
Any murder can be explained easily with Kanon except the case with Eva and Hideyoshi. This might be explained if Kumasawa or Genji are accomplices, but I hope there's a better explanation.
Occam's razor dictates that Kanon is the murderer, now the question is if Ryukishi planned a complicated murder for Episode1 or a simple one. We know that Onikakushi didn't really have a surprise assassin, so it is totally possible that Episode1 won't have a plot twist.
If Kanon is not the murderer, then it can only be one of the first six.
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