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Originally Posted by GenjiChan
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The link to Reuter's own site over
here.
The thread topic is too narrow to begin with and should be broadened to include the entire spectrum of Chinese foreign policy.
On that note, I highlight the salient points from Reuter's analysis which cover the messy state of Chinese foreign policy:
Quote:
(1)
The fact that a provincial government can unilaterally worsen one of China's most sensitive diplomatic problems highlights the dysfunctionality, and potential danger, of policymaking in this arena, analysts say. "It shows what a mess Chinese foreign policy is when it comes to the South China Sea," said a Western diplomat in China, speaking on condition of anonymity.
(2)
According to a report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) earlier this year, no fewer than 11 government entities — from the tourism administration to the navy — play a role in the South China Sea. All, the ICG said, have the potential to take action that could cause diplomatic fallout.
(3)
The Foreign Ministry has a mandate to coordinate among the various players, but it doesn't have the bureaucratic clout to do so effectively. "The Foreign Ministry is low down on the pecking order and there are competing departments making different decisions. It's not joined up at all," said a diplomat.
(4)
Another complicating factor in the competing territorial claims in the South China Sea is that Beijing itself has left ambiguous exactly what the "nine-dash line" on Chinese maps of the region implies. The line, which loops south along Vietnam and back up by the Philippines, appears to delineate China's territorial claims.
But it's not so simple. Mr Carlyle Thayer, a South China Sea specialist at the University of New South Wales in Australia, said in 26 academic conferences he has attended in the past two years, repeated questions to multiple Chinese scholars about just what the line means yielded no clear answer.
"No one in China can tell you what that means," he said. "You have competing actors all backing Chinese sovereignty in an area where no one knows where it is, so it's inherently ambiguous."
REUTERS
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I have ignored most of this thread, so I don't know if this point has already been brought up. Even if it had been, it bears repeating. China has recently undergone a once-in-a-decade leadership change which leaves party cadres and local politicians in a state of flux. Everyone is struggling to figure out where they stand and how they can benefit from the new status quo.
Beijing no longer has a strongman capable of imposing his will on competing factions within the Communist Party. We see signs of increasing factionalism, as each group jockeys for positions within the Politburo Standing Committee. If a senior China correspondent of a Singapore newspaper is to be believed, the party has also been severely rocked by a barely averted coup attempt by Bo Xilai. Basically, this means that central power is starting to fragment, with possibly dire consequences for China and its neighbours.
We are in a situation now where ambitious local politicians and party cadres are raring to assert their patriotic credentials through provocative actions that the central government is barely aware of, let alone control.
This is a worrying trend and further reinforces my belief that strident Chinese nationalism is on an inevitable rise. Not because Beijing wills it, but because it is unable to keep a lid on it, due to the inherent problems of an undemocratic political system weakened further by politicians' almost complete disregard for the law. (To quote the senior correspondent of the Singapore paper: "The law serves politics in China." Which is to say, the people in power follow the law only when it suits them.)
In a situation such as this, it becomes important for the rest of the region to work harder to contain China. When it comes to realpolitik, smaller powers have no choice but to prepare for the worst even as they hope for the best. And if the worst does happen, it's going to be very, very ugly indeed. All the more reason to be well-prepared.