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In the fourth timeline, Mami could be killed by Charlotte or by Walpurgis early on, as in the first timeline. We know she doesn't do well against Walpurgis, even with Madoka by her side.
If Kyubei kept trying and failing to contract Madoka, it's possible he never even noticed Sayaka. If Mami survived until Walpurgis Night arrived, then Kyoko has no reason to be in Mitakihara.
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