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My sense is that they are siblings. There's no reason for the Yotsuba to lie within their clan about their familial standing. Tats is reviled by most of the clan, it would make more sense for the clan's "reputation" if he wasn't labeled as Mayo's son (Miyuki's mom - I get confused between the sister's names).And why hide it if he's really the current head's son (though he isn't since she can't have children)? There's no advantage since they treat him like experimental material anyway.
Which makes me wonder... When can it be determined that a child is a magician? If it's in infancy, then it makes sense that Mayo would have another child right away since Tatsuya would have been declared a failure soon after birth. I remember reading somewhere that Mayo's marriage was made because of a perceived genetic advantage, regardless of the fact that the father was in a relationship with another woman. (And perhaps why she was tolerated as his mistress.) So Mayo's marriage, and thus children, was solely for producing a magician heir (because the current head couldn't have kids). Since Tatsuya was a failure, Miyuki was conceived and born right afterwards and since she was a success, no more kids were needed??? Sound like something the Yotsuba would do.
Plus, the world they inhabit isn't so "perfect" that Miyuki will get everything she wants. She's achingly beautiful, extremely talented, has power and influence as a Yatsubo head candidate... As a reader, it'd break my "suspension of disbelief" if she got her forbidden love too. A tad over the top and melodramatic in my opinion. I think it'd ruin the structure of the story. It seems to me like the author is setting Miyuki up to be a tragic heroine. And wouldn't that thrill the reqdership more? we love a tragic hero/heroine. And the perfect "riding into the sunset" moment would be that somehow, she's the one that gives Tats his freedom and a respected place in their world, though it may not be what he wants. And his take on her heroic sacrifice would be interesting. That plot point, to me, is what the story is ultimately moving toward.
Finally, Tatsuya doesn't have a drop of romantic interest in Miyuki. She's his little sister who he pampers and who is very important to him. It seems like he thinks she makes him human due to the singular, sibling love he has for her. Romantic love is completely out of Tatsuya's understanding. There's numerous examples of this.
Miyuki will have an arranged marriage with Masaki precisely because it's a good genetic match for powerful children for the Yotsuba and because Masaki would want it.
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