[terribad]

Originally Posted by Tenzen12

Can't sales be result of episode. 5? I mean it was pretty much most epic episode so far (last 2 minutes at least) and caught many people off guard. I were going myself ask about sales (and thus for chance for 2ndyou season/ova)on after that...

On the chance your responding to me. I didn't say that sales can't be; I said that it was unlikely if you believe my evidence. I really liked the end too if that's worth anything. Anyway I think the problem here is people are very bad at intuitively understanding probability - at least according to Cracked. What is a 1/256 chance, can you imagine it? We learn best by using a combination our right and left sides of our brains. Sure we can logically understand it but visually (naturally) it's difficult for me at least. Following that what we don't understand we tend to "forget" - questionable source is Derren Brown. As anecdotal evidence, if I were to repeat a sentence after reading it once, the first word I would likely forget would have a chance connotation. [Cracked is pretty popular so if I'm wrong; I hope people will correct me on that article.] Anyway I try to keep all possibilities open so I force myself to write "perhaps", "maybe" and "most likely" for most things. I think much of the above is scientific fact so I'll spare myself from littering my argument. Perhaps I should have wrote if I'm correct....

Originally Posted by larethian

You've heard the anime was rated average by Japanese? I'm not doubting what you heard, but just wondering where you heard it from or are you alluding to the preorder sales of the BD/DVDs of this series, and using it as a correlation to decide what the Japanese think of the anime? If it's the former, I will be interested to know where you hear it from. If it's the later, then it's a mistake to use that as a correlation, since anime buyers are anime collectors (not necessarily LN readers), and moreover Oregairu is competing with a large number of great titles this season for the limited resources of the anime collectors.

Anime market is larger than the LN market? What figures are you basing this on? Right now, since you had mentioned 'anime market', I'm more convinced that you are trying to make correlations between anime sales and LN sales, which does not make sense to me at all. Firstly, for the record, anime sales are usually in the 4-figure arena and only the really big hits make it into the 5-figures (>10k), while average book sales will easily go into 5 (lower end) to 6 (higher end) figures (though anything doing above 200k copies per year is considered well above average and can be considered a hit series though stuff like SAO hit an insane 2 million last year) a year. Maybe, the market value of anime might be higher with better margins (I'm not sure), but counting the numbers, it's obvious 'more' people buy cheaper LNs than buy expensive anime.

One of the reasons why sales of Oregairu LN has increaseed is probably as per what Chaos2Frozen once alluded to. Oregairu LN ranked no. 6 in "This Light Novel is Amazing 2013" (among LN readers, this is the currently perceived authority in ranking LNs in terms of content quality, not popularity/sales). This would have brought LN readers attention to the title. After watching the anime, some of them might have decided to buy the LNs (since they are primarily LN readers). So this is not really surprising. Of course, if the anime was very badly made, this might not have happened, so I would consider that the anime has achieved some degree of success despite its bleak anime preorders.

While the LN sales have apparently increased, the significance of the increase is still questionable. This is because even though Tsutaya is huge, it is but one among a number of other large, popular book retailers. If you want a more accurate picture in terms of 'significance' and how it stands among other titles, Oricon is a better measure. If you look at this page, Tsutaya is actually just one of the cooperating stores for the compiled figures published by Oricon: http://www.oricon.co.jp/rank/index4.html

And ever since volume 7 was released, Oregairu has yet to break into top 30 for the 2nd time in the weekly rankings (of course this doesn't mean it is doing badly, as there are a large number of titles and even the worse ranked - no. 30 - is doing more than 5k in the week). Just that, in RELATIVE terms, it's far from stellar compared to other titles. But I think we can get more conclusive figures after the anime ends and if the publisher is willing to give actual figures. OVerall, I would say the LN sales boost is not surprising, but I'm not sure whether they are actually significant enough. To make a comparison, one of the series I love, Densetsu Yuusha no Densetsu, has pathetic BD/DVD sales, but received almost a 500k copies boost in LN sales (from 3.8 million to about 4.3 million). Now, that's what I would call significant (even though it already has over 20 volumes in the series). Of course I don't even want to talk about the LN boost for SAO and AW (and they even have superb BD/DVD sales).

As for the publish dates, dates are set by publishers and each publisher usually has a set date every month and adheres to it. All titles released by the same publisher are usually published on the very same date each month.

This is the post I wanted to see and why I said I know little about business. As an overall impression what you said didn't seem obvious to me. What's obvious depends on the person although there is often a great overlap. Sometimes the greatest discoveries are from questioning common knowledge. Furthermore this is why I posted my interpretation so someone can correct me and I can expand my knowledge or at least perspective. I read that people learn easier from corrections than just being told. Also I'm not saying that all the posts other than yours weren't useful but yours is the most comprehensive and backed by plausible evidence. If nothing else I believe in: Ask stupid questions, get smart answers depending on the person.

1st paragraph. Honestly I'm not sure and I said "heard" because I don't remember. If I knew I likely would have referenced the source like I do for my LN comments but of course you didn't know that. I've had another quick look and no luck. I might have seen it on myanimelist or 4chan. It was more along the lines of: "Japanese viewers find it OK overall" or "It's not very popular because of the lack of fan made content for the anime in comparison to stuff like SnK , Gargantia or pretty much any anime of the season". I don't really believe it either but that was best info I had at the time so I assumed it was true. Anyway most of my arguments (def is in accordance to critical thinking; my Dad has a problem with the word "argument") for other members assumed that was true.

2nd Paragraph. What figures I'm basing it on? None, I was just trying to reconcile things. Here's my line reasoning with the info I had. Oregairu was rated an average anime. Oregairu's first volume was number 1 on the list. I guessed that means only anime-first watchers brought the volume since it was pretty popular as a LN already. But how did a small fraction of the anime- first watchers, who enjoyed it and decided to buy Vol 1, result in it being number 1 on the list? [I just speculated that it could be a LN dry season perhaps but that besides the point]. An answer could be that anime market is much larger than the LN market and notably mutually exclusive. Following that even a small fraction of the anime market will produce good sales. The anime market being bigger than the LN market was again just me trying to connect the dots.

3rd paragraph. I always wondered how important that ranking system was. I just assumed it was since most of the Light Novels on the top 10 get an anime adaptation. However you describe it as a "top authority", is there any basis for that apart from what I said. Maybe that guide book is a monopoly concerning official LN ranking. Average can mean " I don't like it but I don't dislike it either", "sure it's good but it balanced out by the bad" or "compared to sales of other anime this season, it's in the average range". The point there being that I didn't mean to imply that the anime had no success. English is my first language but it seems that "words fail me". [Okay I'm desperate that someone gets that quote from a certain magical abridged series].

4th paragraph. That's precisely why I said I don't know how much of the market the chain takes so I don't how relevant it is for the reasons you said. What I meant to say was: Given the information I think the following is a reasonable assumption but bear in mind I don't know how much of the market the chain takes. Although I didn't consider what sales mean in a more absolute sense even if it was first. For the sake of simplicity I assumed it was a monopoly hoping someone like yourself would do the work for me. It follows then that I thank you for the link.

5th paragraph. Ah good old relativity it makes arguments so much easier; it doesn't look bad as a theory either. I really enjoy "The legend of the legendary heroes" as well despite its redundant English title. I watched the anime first and I've started with the Light Novels but I think they're incomplete. In order to avoid another Oregairu where I had to wait three - four months everyday for more, I stopped at a complete volume which is 1 or 2.

6th paragraph. You say the "very same date". Here I was with impression that Wataru was a punctual writer but now the opposite may be more correct. On the other hand how does he measure up against other LN writers? In fact you don't have to answer because I'm just being lazy again.

Originally Posted by csuree

Hi terri.... I think you were referring to the quotes above when replying to me.
I am very sorry if I gave you a bad impression. or something like that....It was never intended to be that way. I'm having trouble with communicating and social relationships so I might have made some blunders......I apologize for them.

Anyway you can write it down exactly what was my offense, I will read it, analyze it, but I'm not the kind of person who holds a grudge because someone told me something unpleasant that was also a truth. I wanna reflect on what I did.

Well also economics is for those who are inside it. I as a consumer am happy that many like the series but that is all I need to know....the rest is the accountants, managers, and marketing people's duty.

as for the TV series.... they might just go 13 episodes given the summer season kicks off July 1st, Monday. If they go 12 episodes 1 week will be empty.
This is just my speculation, I have no proof......maybe I'm right maybe not; We'll see.

I was really explaining myself to the guests mostly. It's that whole unknown factor again. If you get the wrong impression you can just correct me. As for the guests they can just quietly seethe or whatever bad thing my mind cooks up.

I have no problems with you because I don't know you. Consider all the differing and conflicting opinions over relatively simple fictional characters. Here we also have much more intimate window into their lives than most real people would in casual, familial or even, I'm talking out of my ass here, romantic relationships. Furthermore there's a lot of cognitive bias that goes into human relationships if so how accurate can I say any analysis was of you? I don't even remember a fraction of the cognitive biases so I can't even attempt to calibrate myself. The point there is, for me now, human psychology is way too complex for me to make a judgement on. As I like accuracy and I'm lazy, I endeavour to take the neutral perspective for everyone that is, I tend to not like or dislike people. Although what people do can irritate me but reason is a way of dealing with that emotion.

I like your reaction to criticism. I would explain why but this is probably the post the size of Everest by now - okay I can't be bothered.

Finally, Economics are for those who are inside it? Where's the fun or learning in that?