the whole jack about him "confessing to her killing" could just be jack about him being on a guilt trip for dropping his guard and failing brother and his friends.
I don't see why he would kill her. He liked the whole school, not just Lelouch. He want to keep Ashford intact and protect it because it felt like home. I don't see why he would kill Shirley. I just think that assassins came in and took a shot but we all know his power have limitations. He stopped time for everyone but it couldn't stop the bullet or attack which killed Shirley. Lelouch could then find a sobbing Rollo somewhere over the assassins body blaming himself.
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