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I'll second Higurashi being a different beast than Umineko. I think Umineko is strong enough to get a fair number of characters into the main tournament, but most of them will be gone by the end of Round 1.
I haven't personally gotten around to watching Bakemonogatari, but from what I've heard it's going to be a strong force next year.
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A miracle that you believe in when you know it won't happen......... is hope.
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