2008-03-15, 13:40 | Link #301 |
Not Enough Sleep
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: R'lyeh
Age: 48
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With the recent controversy in regard to Obama's pastor as one example. i believed that if Obama wins the democratic nomination he will lose the general election to McCain.
Another reason i don't think Obama will beat McCain is that the US won't vote for a Blackman for President (and yes i know his mother is white). i found this on youtube, it is a Political ad form 2006 on a senate race in Tennese. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UZBZ...eature=related
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2008-04-23, 00:22 | Link #302 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2003
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Clinton has taken PA with a 10 point margin after doing considerably better among undecideds than Obama. (60/40).
She has gained almost nothing except cut the overall popular vote lead by a 1/3rd... for now. Some anti-spin tracking:
Some bad exit polls for the democratic party: 47% of clinton voters will not vote for obama in the general election. 29% of obama voters will not vote for clinton in the general election. Of these two numbers, a large number of Clinton voters will break for McCain. The democratic party is really getting in danger of being in real trouble come August. And for some amusement, the fark headline for this: Quote:
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2008-04-23, 00:42 | Link #303 | ||
Obey the Darkly Cute ...
Author
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: On the whole, I'd rather be in Kyoto ...
Age: 67
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2008-04-23, 01:12 | Link #304 | |
ISML Technical Staff
Graphic Designer
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And yes, I'm very worried for the democratic party. For the people who support Obama, do you really think McCain is better than Clinton, and vice versa?
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2008-04-23, 01:41 | Link #305 |
Obey the Darkly Cute ...
Author
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: On the whole, I'd rather be in Kyoto ...
Age: 67
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Well.. personally I'd vote for an ashtray if the Dems ran it for President because I'm so annoyed at the thugs masquerading as Republicans -- they need a huge timeout.
I *really* don't understand any Clinton supporter that would sit out or "go McCain". That's just irrational freaking insanity of shooting yourself in the foot.
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2008-04-23, 01:47 | Link #306 |
Retired
Graphic Designer
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Princeton University
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Agreed, we had a discussion about this in our AP stats class once and we didnt understand why people would just go over to McCain because the ideology of Obama and Clinton are virtually the same except some minute differences.
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2008-04-23, 02:05 | Link #307 |
Moving in circles
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Singapore
Age: 49
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Out of curiosity, what's wrong with McCain? I don't like the Republicans in general, but McCain seems like an ok guy. I, for one, prefer his straight talking to Obama's feel-good speeches.
As for the Democrats, I think they need to settle the tussle between Clinton and Obama as soon as possible. As much as I support Clinton over Obama, I am disappointed by the negative turn of Clinton's recent campaign. It does Obama more good than harm, I reckon. |
2008-04-23, 02:14 | Link #308 | |
Banned
Join Date: Dec 2006
Age: 38
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But honestly, why would you want an "ok guy" running your country? You're not picking bowling partners after all. |
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2008-04-23, 02:19 | Link #309 |
Obey the Darkly Cute ...
Author
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: On the whole, I'd rather be in Kyoto ...
Age: 67
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I guess I should say I do understand those supporters of Clinton or Obama who would sit out or cross and I have no respect for them at all. They're fools of the worst sort -- because the policy platforms of both Clinton and Obama are basically identical.
McCain is committed to carrying the Bush policies forward for 4 more years.... the rest of this rant is minor compared to that one. He has demonstrated he can't keep the factions straight in his head about Iraq - an area he's *supposed* to have huge expertise. He has made mistake after mistake in discussing Iraq, way past the "brain fart" apology. He has admitted no clue about economic issues, which he seems to consider "small stuff not to sweat" yet wants to make permanent the tax cuts during a very expensive military operation that should never have been retained. He completely rolled over on the Geneva Convention issues -- it makes you wonder if anyone supporting him has any long-term memory. No one apparently remembers a certain banking scandal he was immersed in.... I could dribble on.... but keep in mind I've been a registered Republican of the "old school" for decades ... but I dropped after Bush was elected a second time. We need a new party.... that doesn't have the "usual players" from the old party.
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Last edited by Vexx; 2008-04-23 at 02:36. |
2008-04-23, 02:23 | Link #310 | ||
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2003
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Just another statistic from the exit polls to throw out:
20% of the people in the rural areas of PA said that race mattered in their vote vs 10% in the cities. In those 20% areas, 75% of them voted for Clinton. Quote:
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One of them is that Clinton has repeatedly said that McCain would make a better president than Obama. Supposedly her supporters are really taking this to heart. The second is that Clinton has a lot of Jewish backing. I found out recently that the more Zionistic Jews believe that Obama would be a disaster for Israel if elected and that McCain's policies would not be. (I heard this from one at dinner a few days ago.) Third is part a Rovian theory and part truth. The Rovian theory part is that, since she cannot win legitimately, Clinton is trying to destroy the Dem ticket for this year without destroying her hopes for 2012 by weakening Obama in the primary and getting McCain elected. The truth part to this is there are women who believe that there should be a woman in the oval office now. And if not now, they should set it up so they can try again in 4 years. They really couldn't care when the race comes down to between two men and will likely sit it out or help set it up. |
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2008-04-23, 02:34 | Link #311 | |
Moving in circles
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Singapore
Age: 49
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In short, I find McCain to be a man of integrity well-suited for the role of a president that needs to be actively involved in foreign affairs. I'm not sure about what he can offer domestic policies though, especially with regards to the economy. That said, the best thing a president can do for an economy is to probably stay out of it. |
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2008-04-23, 02:41 | Link #312 | |
Translator, Producer
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Age: 44
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Well if that's all that's needed to fix the economy, McCain's perfect! He's been "Out of it" for years!
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2008-04-23, 02:53 | Link #313 | |
Aria Company
Join Date: Nov 2003
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As for democrats saying they won't vote for the other candidate if they win, I doubt that will last. Once the general election rolls around and they start getting a better idea of McCain's policies on Iraq and the economy, the democratic candidate will probably start looking much more appealing. There isn't much difference between Clinton and Obama on those issues. Let's not forget we don't know who McCain is going to pick as a running mate yet. If he picks someone from the far right to sure up support among conservatives, there go even more potential democratic votes he could have picked up. If he picks someone more moderate though, it is concievable that he'll be able to get a sizable minority of democrats to vote for him, enough to tip the election in his favor. It's probably still unlikely though. In my opinion the real threat to the democratic party in the general election is if it's still close with neither candidate conceeding and the super delegates go against the popular vote and pick the one they think is more likely to win. The McCain campaign adds practically write themselves if that happens. It's probably unlikely, but it's still possible.
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2008-04-23, 10:09 | Link #314 |
Bittersweet Distractor
Join Date: Nov 2007
Age: 32
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If I was able to vote I would sit out if Clinton lost the nomination because personally, I'm freaked out by Obama. Mccain, although I disagree with him on many policies, comes to me as someone I can respect a lot. It's not insanity really, I think the idea of Obama's campaign is what is insane. Getting all the states that would never go Democratic anyways and winning all these caucuses, while Clinton has won all the large states except Illinoise.
Obama is clearly not getting the elderly vote, which will be very important n Florida.
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2008-04-23, 12:50 | Link #315 | |
Love Yourself
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Northeast USA
Age: 38
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I can respect all three candidates, but of the three only Obama seems to get the big picture - we want change. It's more than wanting change in our Iraq policies, change in oil prices, or any one thing. It's change in the overall direction of the government. For the past seven years (perhaps even before then) the government has increasingly been moving us toward the so-called "nanny state." Our privacy and freedoms are being devalued in the face of "terrorism" and government corruption isn't being held in check. What needs to be changed is the field of politics itself - politicians should be working for us and our interests, rather than their own. Even if Obama can't do it, he represents a point of singularity for all of us to express our dissatisfaction with the system that's supposed to represent us! That isn't the only reason to vote for him, of course. I think it's a bit of an overlooked aspect.
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2008-04-23, 13:15 | Link #316 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
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The problem with the campaign on the Democratic side is that there is too much of this petty "who said what", "who close to whichever candidate made what mistakes" stuff, and the issues aren't even being talked about. And rather than strengthen the party, their attacks against eachother only end up splitting the party. All this mess because someone just doesn't want to wake up, smell the coffee, and drop out of the race. So yes, I would rather die than have another Clinton as president. Frankly I don't think they have anyones interests in mind other than their own, and they are willing to do whatever it takes to make those interests happen. |
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2008-04-23, 13:38 | Link #317 | |
Le fou, c'est moi
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Las Vegas, NV, USA
Age: 35
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Not that I mind; I'm pro-Obama anyway. |
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2008-04-23, 14:27 | Link #318 | |
Banned
Join Date: May 2006
Age: 39
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2008-04-23, 14:46 | Link #319 | |||
Not Enough Sleep
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: R'lyeh
Age: 48
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Most of the states Obama has been winning are red states. The majority of which he won't win in the General Election. Clinton has winning in the States that Democratic needs to win to win the general election. Right now unless the issue with Florida and Michigan gets resolve sitting thier delegates as it is. Obama has real good chance of losing both states to the McCain over this issue of not counting thier delegates. Quote:
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2008-04-23, 15:26 | Link #320 | |||
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2003
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D1>D2 => R>D1 and R>D2 (when traditionally R>D) D2>D1 => D2>R and R>D1 (when traditionally D>R)" I have bolded both of the logical errors. You cannot conclude that anything about R and D1,D2 by comparing D1 and D2. This is the question of "Do you prefer empire or macintosh apples?" Not "Do you prefer apples or oranges?" You cannot conclude people's preferences between apples and oranges from asking what kind of apple they want. Quote:
Edit: Democrats should take Michigan no matter who they run. However, Clinton is in even more danger against McCain in Michigan. "She originally said she wasn't going to count you. She only decided to count you because she won here. Look at all the other states she discounted because she lost. Do you really want someone who only supports you when it is favorable to them?" Last edited by bayoab; 2008-04-23 at 15:39. Reason: Formatting, typo... |
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