2009-06-11, 05:25 | Link #1201 |
Senior Member
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It might be hard for Kasumi to keep up the act, but I think she had enough hatred to do it. Plus, when she's not being bad-mouthed, or angered, she is really calm. Kyrie only very rarely speaks during the Family Conference, anyway.
It's a bit farfetched, perhaps, but I think Kasumi's determination could do it. This part isn't logical evidence of any sort, it's just something interesting to think about: Spoiler for Episode 4:
However, I feel that most other explanations are also a low probability, mostly George's death. I can understand why someone who wasn't truly dead would kill Nanjo, since he claimed they were dead, but they weren't. But I cannot think of a good reason to not only kill George, but also inscribe that number on the door also. Considering that they must have lost a lot of blood and was on the verge of death (assumption), I don't see how they could have gotten the energy to do it. Then of course, you could say Eva killed George. This is possible, but I find it really hard to believe Eva would kill George, with how much she dotes on him. |
2009-06-11, 06:56 | Link #1202 | |
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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As for the news and the police report, we are not told what is the official story. There's a big hole here. You cannot say that a Volcano's eruption was not reported, maybe it was, we simply aren't told anything about that.
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2009-06-11, 07:14 | Link #1203 |
Senior Member
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My point wasn't that we hadn't heard about it, it was that Ange and every person wondering about the Rokkenjima incident didn't hear of it.
If a volcano went off near the island, then the most logical explanation would be that the volcano was the cause of the deaths. However, you have things like the Witch Hunters, and people who believe it's a conspiracy. What I mean is much like this: You hear that a house was set on fire. At this point, you can think of many ways to explain it. Someone burned it. A witch used magic to burn it. A residence of the house accidentally left the stove on. Now, you hear that this house had a gas leak in the pipes. That certainly doesn't mean it was because of the gas leak that the house set on fire, but the probability is high, and most people would think it was because of this. There would be very very few people who would believe otherwise. In this situation, people hear about how 17 people on Rokkenjima died. However, they also hear that a nearby volcano erupted. While the volcano wasn't necessarily the reason they died, the probability is high, and I doubt there would be a bunch of media attention and a whole group dedicated to proving a witch did it. |
2009-06-11, 07:25 | Link #1204 |
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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My assumption is that Ange and everyone knows more than what we are told.
I've just replayed the part when Ange goes to Rokkenjima. The Captain says: "that's where the harbor used to be". Why "used to be"? It looks like no one is surprised to know that the harbor doesn't exist anymore. After that it is written that the boat is rounding the island. It isn't clear where they are going it only says after a while that they reach the shore. The the most important part. Ange says: "Today, our main goal is Kuwadorian. after I deliver this, I'll come right back." Why she doesn't even want to go to the old mansion? That doesn't make sense. Yes it is said that there's been a landslide, but how Ange was supposed to know? I can only conclude that the Mansion doesn't exist anymore, neither does the chapel the guesthouse and the harbor, and that is common knowledge. Ange knew that already, and probably Juuza knows that too. No one is surprised. It is a know fact.
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2009-06-11, 08:00 | Link #1205 | ||
阿賀野型3番艦、矢矧 Lv180
Graphic Designer
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".........Can you see it?`@` Over there's where the harbor was at the time." If so, remember this line: After that incident, the island was sealed off and left to the wild. Sealing the island would mean that to prevent anyone to set a foot there. So the harbor no longer there doesn't exactly need a natural catastrophe. Quote:
First, remember that none of the siblings could reach kuwadorian except Rosa (if she can be trusted) by foot. It is public knowledge that Kuwadorian is at least 2km afar of the Mansion, and that it wasn't exactly found that easily. Therefore, it is not really logical to expect Ange to be able to do the other way (and nothing prevent her to do another trip and reach the mansion from the other side, and she wouldn't mind jumping off of the boat, if you think about it). Also, remember that the whole odd point was Eva being alone in Kuwadorian. If the police didn't find anything in the main Mansion, why would Ange bother with it anyway? The whole idea of this trip was to pay a visit to Maria (though originally, ending her own life there). Ange has absolutely no other goal than this one considering the context, so checking the Ushiromiya Mansion is moot (for the moment).
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Last edited by Klashikari; 2009-06-11 at 08:11. |
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2009-06-11, 09:02 | Link #1206 | |
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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I don't get your point. If it was simply sealed off, the harbor would still be there. Actually how can you seal off an harbor? Even if it was sealed off, we are talking about a girl that threw herself from a skyscraper. Would a police seal stop her? There's no way I'm going to believe that.
Or you mean the harbor was destroyed? That would be a pointless waste of money. You don't really need a harbor to reach an island and the event shown prove that. About the kuwadorian. It is illogical to think it wouldn't be easily found from the hidden harbor. Captain Kawabata shipped goods there for 20 years. A path must exists, and it must have been in good enough condition to carry various stuff. After 12 years you can assume the conditions deteriorated but not as much to completely erase any trace. And then again the kuwadorian can't be that distant from the harbor, certainly not 2 kilometers. I also really do not understand how can you say: Quote:
If the whole idea of going to Rokkenjima was only to pay a visit to Maria and then die, it was because there was really nothing else to do on Rokkenjima (i.e. everything was destroyed). You can't say that Ange has no interest in knowing the truth by herself, it doesn't match with all the investigations she has done before that.
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2009-06-11, 09:31 | Link #1207 | |||
阿賀野型3番艦、矢矧 Lv180
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Before even Ange was trying to do that, probably countless of reckless mystery freaks tried to do so (the game implied many witch hunters tried to get in Rokkenjima). However they weren't able to do so due to the whole "cursed island", so they could only have a trip. Now, how is it possible to call that a "cursed island", but without even mentioning a volcanic activity? That would be the very first thing to be mentioned. Quote:
What I posted previously was that Krauss and the siblings weren't able to find Kuwadorian, except Rosa by chance, from the mainland. That means: unless you get access from the Hidden Harbor, the chances you find the kuwadorian mansion are extremely slim. To prove it, Krauss wasn't able to locate it, despite tailing Kinzo, or when he was planning his resort project. Furthermore, if we consider that only a few people knew about the hidden harbor, and that Krauss didn't find anything for several years, it is plainly difficult. Now the true point of my post is: Ange didn't go to the old mansion because accessing from Kuwadorian to the Mansion (and vice versa) is extremely difficult without the underground passage. As explained above, Krauss didn't find anything despite he had the time for this ordeal. Therefore, for her to access the Mansion from the other side of the island is very unlikely. That was the whole point. And like I said: it is NOT the distance between the harbor and Kuwadorian that is 2km. It is between the MANSION and Kuwadorian that it is 2km. And that distance with cliffs, forest and the like is certainly not practicable. Quote:
2) Like I said: I never said she "never wanted" to check the mansion, but her primary first goal was to settle things with Maria, no more no less. There was no guarantee she will leave Rokkenjima past this point (she said: go back, in the sense of joining back Amakusa and the captain). If you link the fact it would take ages to reach the Mansion from Kuwadorian, it would be more logical to go around with the boat instead. 3) And I never said that Ange has no interest into finding the truth. You are jumping on conclusions for words I never wrote. Given what she said during the trip, the ACTUAL context of her ordeal at the Kuwadorian rest would be to settle things with Maria. No bothering to check the Mansion doesn't mean she doesn't want to know the truth. And if you consider the possible SHOCK of it, certainly it wouldn't be a merry round. Afterwards, it is up to Ange to continue her investigation that seems to be extremely hard to resolve. But that is another story.
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2009-06-11, 09:32 | Link #1208 |
The Great Dine
Join Date: Feb 2009
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She might not want to go because it brings up bad memories. You have to remember in EP 3 Battler is confirmed definietly dead. The only person that went 'missing' was Jessica.
Ange's entire journey was self-satisfaction. She wanted to know about the murders and everything, but then she realized it was impossible. So she went to the island to say farewell to Maria, the sister she upsetted and to give back Sakutaro and revive him. She also apparently wanted to revive Battler and her family as well. You can't say "Ange would go to the mansion if she could" because we really don't know whether or not she would want to. As far as the volcano theory or what not I think that would be silly. Wouldn't the police know if a volcano erupted on the island - I think Ange might mention that she wouldn't go to the mansion because of a volcano in the narration. It just seems too easy. And once again - if there's an active volcano on the island there is no way the police or the government would let the Ushiromiya family stay on an island that could be wiped out by an eruption because it's a safety hazard. |
2009-06-11, 10:27 | Link #1209 | |||||||||
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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We know that neither Kawabata neither Kasumi had any major problem reaching the island. How do you explain that? To me the only reason why the various mystery freaks couldn't do the same it's because they didn't find anyone that would bring them there. Simply as that. Quote:
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That would never cross my mind in a million of years. Quote:
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It is a fact that the players are kept on the dark about what the police has found, and what was the official reconstruction of the events. About the second part. The volcano wasn't active, it only awoke on October 5. No one knew about it before this tragic event... except Kinzo and maybe a few others...
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2009-06-11, 10:34 | Link #1210 |
Junior Member
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Sweden
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I find the volcanic theory to be pretty interesting.
If you look up the Izu islands on wikipedia you find this: "The Izu Islands (伊豆諸島, Izu-shotō?) are a group of volcanic islands stretching south and east from the Izu Peninsula of Honshū, Japan. " - Wikipedia and "Volcanic activity is frequent in the area. The Eruption of Myōjin-shō in 1953 killed 31 people when the research vessel Kaiyō Maru no 5 was destroyed. Volcanic activity, including the release of harmful gases, forced the evacuation of Miyake-jima in 2000. In February 2005, residents were allowed to return permanently to the island but were required to carry gas masks in case of future volcanic emissions." - Wikipedia Wouldn't that kind of explain why they were trying to keep people from going to the island after the massacre? And I am not aware of how trusty the seismographic machines used at the time were, it might be a bit of Devils Proof, but maybe the machine used were broken or not used to its' full potential and therefore no one mentioned that Rokkenjima was an unstable area. No one told the Ushiromyia family that the storm was going to keep them on the island for two days, didn't they? Point 2, about the lava not reaching the Kuwadorian: There are different types of volcanoes, what most people come to think of when they hear "volcano" is the stratavolcano, however there are others. I am no expert, but I would guess the Izu islands are like the Hawaiian islands, hot spots, and smong them there might be so called shield volcanoes. Shield volcanoes are formed from fluid lava that can travel long distances across slight inclines, resulting in their relatively flat, broad profile. |
2009-06-11, 11:04 | Link #1211 |
Naysayer?Fanboy?Wiseacre?
Join Date: Dec 2005
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Personally I would be very disappointed if a volcano turns out to have killed anyone. First, this would be either totally random disaster or soem extremely lame way of "making" a volcano erupt will be concocted. Secondly, so much about the incident and no one bothers to mention that it was a volcano eruption? I call cheating from the writer.
But yes, the ship docking at the hidden port instead of the main one is certainly fishy. Something befell the main mansion that we are not supposed to see, I reckon.
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2009-06-11, 11:06 | Link #1212 | |||||||||
阿賀野型3番艦、矢矧 Lv180
Graphic Designer
Moderator Join Date: Mar 2006
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And as for the second point: you are now telling me that they weren't warned about the volcano activity? Not pointing a major obstacle of investigating just like that is beyond convenient. Quote:
Furhtermore, why krauss is unaware of that mansion? Why the captain didn't list Krauss among those who know this? And if you tell me that "episode 4 scenes cannot be trusted", we cannot trust either the lack of information regarding the sealing of the island and whatnot. Kinzo had an immense fortune and could OWN an island. That would certainly not prevent him to make sure his second mansion and harbor wouldn't be found unless with great efforts. Not only krauss didn't find it, but neither Eva or Rudolf. Quote:
Since Eva was found in that mansion, it wouldn't be surprising for Ange to investigate there first, though unfortunately, there were landslides. Quote:
Now if you believe that she wouldn't be stopped at all, why wouldn't she have a look at the mainland, despite there was lava or whatnot? (and 2km is not a distance great enough to put the other mansion in a safe place). Quote:
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I can't think of a valid excuse for characters not to report the volcanic activity. Quote:
How could they find the pieces of jaw? The ending scroll could even state the police found the "unimaginable gruesome crime scene".
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Last edited by Klashikari; 2009-06-11 at 11:25. |
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2009-06-11, 11:38 | Link #1213 |
Senior Member
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I would also like to point out that if the police did conclude that it was a volcano, then there would be no reason for them to seal the island up.
The police seal places up for ongoing investigations, however, if they already know a volcano erupted, then the investigation would be over, and they would unseal Rokkenjima. Plus, you're saying that everyone in the game knows it was a volcano, but haven't answered me; why are there so many people who are "looking for the truth"? |
2009-06-11, 11:58 | Link #1214 | |
Naysayer?Fanboy?Wiseacre?
Join Date: Dec 2005
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2009-06-11, 11:59 | Link #1215 | |||||||
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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Anyway it seems that Eva did find the kuwadorian in the end, and it looks that whoever rescued her, didn't incurred in such problems either. Quote:
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And I turn to you even the pieces of jaw. Why would they found only the bones? How is that possible? I can answer with my theory, Maria's body was completely burned, only some pieces of her jaws survived the extreme heat. Quote:
Even those that believed in the authorities they still questioned Eva. Why she was the only one to survive? Why she didn't bring with her the other family members? So people speculated she took advantage of the situation to let everyone die
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2009-06-11, 12:16 | Link #1216 | ||||
阿賀野型3番艦、矢矧 Lv180
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If Episode 3 is trustworthy enough regarding how Eva found Kuwadorian, a specific path is certainly established (though an underground tunnel). Quote:
As shown at the start of ep4, regardless where Ange is, Kasumi wanted to abduct her. But then, she mentioned she just has to kill Ange as they were on Rokkenjima. This situation was favorable just because it is a secluded island. As for the rest of it, it is undeniable that Kasumi was after her. Quote:
Now, willing to find the truth doesn't mean you don't trust the police. The investigation was put on a halt because there were no substancial proofs or clues regarding "what happened". This is the reason why Rokkenjima became a topic filled of mysteries and whatnot. There HAS to be more, but physical proofs on Rokkenjima are unlikely to be around. Quote:
Then, they DID found corpses, in fact, pieces of them. And you obviously cannot find pieces of corpses after these were plunged in lava or whatnot. Episode 1 was shown as the following way: Battler, George, Jessica and Maria's corpses where nowhere to be found. However, the investigators found pieces of corpses from the other Ushiromiya. Only after they found the letter YEARS after, they found the jaw fragment, which certainly can explain why they found bones only for the second investigation.
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2009-06-11, 12:28 | Link #1217 | |||
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Witch hunters, Ange, journalist, TV station directors. The fact that the police questioned Eva is pretty much proof that they suspected her, also. And furthermore, the survivor's family and the captain don't seem to know what happened either. So many people came to Nanjo's son that he become slightly pessimistic at them, as seen with Ange. It was even said, if I recall correctly, that many people would question why Eva wasn't in jail yet. It is true that, as you say, people will take events and look at them differently, however, it is not normally so large an amount of people in such a small area and in such extreme ways. Quote:
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Spoiler for Higurashi:
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2009-06-11, 12:43 | Link #1218 |
Umineko and Mabinogi fan~
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Florida
Age: 42
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Regarding Battler's fate at the end. My thoughts, to fit the red truth,
Spoiler for Epi 4~:
.........I'm just throwing thoughts out there. ^^; . Feel free to disregad. EDIT- Oh yeah, and about Sakutaro. My guess was that Rosa, after the ripping incident, felt guilty about it and made another Sakutaro doll. She might have been planning to give the toy to Maria on Rokenjiima, but lost/ left it somewhere on the way. Remember, though Rosa is painted in an especially bad light in this episode, deed down, she really does love her daughter. (Rosa just needs a lot of therapy. ...or meds.) Last edited by lovelysan; 2009-06-11 at 13:01. |
2009-06-11, 13:07 | Link #1219 | |||||||
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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and imho this is absolutely wrong. Quote:
And not just to find clues or such, but to see the place once more. If I was her I would definitely do that. Quote:
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2009-06-11, 13:31 | Link #1220 | |||||
阿賀野型3番艦、矢矧 Lv180
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And peaking of Kuwadorian, on the other hand, it is even more suspicious that the witch side shows Nanjo knowing this location (more than a mere rumor) and the fact he already wandered in the corridor. Quote:
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Episode 4 proved that Episode 1 endingscroll was arguably real, especially Maria's letter. Do you expect me to believe that "conveniently, only the police finding the corpses" portion is a lie, among the text explaining the whole aftermath, the fisherman finding the letter years afterwards etc? The presence of the witch's record doesn't represent the whole ending scroll, otherwise, it doesn't make sense that only the record is in the TIPS. Quote:
To begin with, the volcanic eruption was primarily speculated so Battler can die without any other survivor around. If the eruption was so focalised, how can battler be killed like this? If you invoke the Devil's proof that there is no way to contradict both statement, how about flipping the same loophole with Ange first checking Kuwadorian before the Mansion? (ak... turning into wits? no thanks). There is no checkmate for any side, but I certainly cannot buy so many convenient points from an eruption: 1) no mention with the massive media information 2) that corpses pieces could be found 3) that suddenly, only 1 part of the endinscroll is a lie.
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Last edited by Klashikari; 2009-06-11 at 14:00. |
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