[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Well, definitely not impossible, but we've been shown that Kyrie is extremely ruthless when it comes to money. That doesn't disprove anything, but it makes it less likely that she would do something like that out of the goodness of her heart. In Sayo's case, on the other hand, you clearly have a very conflicted person with a serious grudge.

Also, are you suggesting that Kyrie is Beatrice? The letters sending that money had Beatrice's handwriting on them. If that's the case, Kyrie must also be the one what met with Maria several times and did magic tricks, among other things. Do you know of any reason Kyrie might have had for doing that?

Well, if you ask me why. Then, it got more complicated and I had to state out my complete theory.

I speculated that the real Beatrice (Kyrie) was the daughter of 1952 Beatrice (a foreigner, Italian I guess, that's why Kyrie's name was so westernized inside the traditional Sumadera family ), who had ran away from her family to Kinzo. What Kyrie had about her mother was only how she taught her about magic and witch.
And she was in lack of mother's love from a very young age.

Maria was in a similar situation, who was also yearning for mother's love, while believing in magic and witch, like when Kyrie was in her childhood. She taught her magic so that she could honour her mother in a way.

Kyrie was the troll Beatrice (EP6) who made all the pranks on Ushiromiya family, while she was searching for Kinzo's gold (1952 Beatrice leaked the location of the gold to Kinzo, so the gold initially belonged to Sumadera family, and it was her gold. She wanted to reclaim it because she wanted to get it back to Sumadera family's hand, not because she really needed it, but because she wanted to clear up her mother's name of being a traitor)

She thought that Kinzo was a liar to her mother who only yearned after her mother's fortunate. She confronted with Kinzo, Kinzo showed her the epitaph to test her. She solved it and claimed the status of the head of the Ushiromiya family as well.

She also located Kwadorian as well, and from there, she knew that she had a sister (1967 Beatrice, the moeBeatrice). She witnessed the efforts Kinzo had been putting in reviving the initial Beatrice. She realized that Kinzo's love to her mother was real and also knew that her sister's love towards Kinzo (moeBeatrice's love towards Battler).

Knowing that none of his offspring was really doing a good job but fights among themselves, Kinzo's last wish was to test them whether they were qualified to acquire his fortune (deeply in the heart, he wanted to reunite the family), but he knew that he would not do it before he died.

Around these time, Kyrie knew from Maria that Rosa abandoned her at home most of the time. Kyrie had no choice but to urge Maria to believe in Rosa's well being. However, the destruction of Sakutarou triggered the complete collapse of Maria's hope on Rosa. Kyrie then concluded that this Ushiromiya family was rigged and only after this she agreed to Kinzo's request to test the whole family, even if it meant to use death to test them.

Battler's sin was his departure and forgot about his promise to Maria that he could come to see her every year. Seeing that Maria was really enjoying with Battler, Kyrie knew that if Battler upheld his promise then Maria could never turn into a dark witch, or at least so quickly. If Maria did not lose all her hope, Kyrie would never agreed to stage such a test for the whole Ushiromiya family.

The disregard of his influence and importance to the Ushiromiya family was Battler's sin.

Kyrie recruited Genji and Shannon to her side. Genji just obeyed his old master's order, while Shannon understood Kyrie's intention and agreed to help her.

------------

Quite a complete theory, I guess.

[Kitsu]

In other words, Sayo always chooses the first twilight completely at random. when she kills Shannon or Kanon, she continues on as the other, and whenever both die, she continues on as Beatrice. For now, let's just say that Kanon and Shannon were both chosen for the first twilight and that this somehow led to Sayo dying as Kanon (there is always a Shannon corpse lying around, so it might be a fake...maybe even Erika's)

As I find this a very interesting thought (especially the thing about Erika's corpse) there is a little problem there. Both Kanon and Shannon once stated that the sacrifices aren't't choose at random. That was of course a magic scene but I would find it a bit stupid to let the characters say that just to mislead.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Kitsu

As I find this a very interesting thought (especially the thing about Erika's corpse) there is a little problem there. Both Kanon and Shannon once stated that the sacrifices aren't't choose at random. That was of course a magic scene but I would find it a bit stupid to let the characters say that just to mislead.

Could you point out the scene? Depending on how "magic" it was, may refer to the fact that meta-Beatrice is the Game Master and can choose whichever world she wants. It could still be random for the piece Sayo.

Have I missed anyone's points?

[Kitsu]

Could you point out the scene? Depending on how "magic" it was, may refer to the fact that meta-Beatrice is the Game Master and can choose whichever world she wants. It could still be random for the piece Sayo.

It was the dungeon scene. You know the very suspicious and stange magic talk Shannon and Kanon had. The one in which Shannon said that it was very strange for both of them to survive and talking about how Beatrice like to give them hope etc. During that talk they also mentioned that even if she says the sacrifices are choosen at random they aren't

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Kitsu

It was the dungeon scene. You know the very suspicious and stange magic talk Shannon and Kanon had. The one in which Shannon said that it was very strange for both of them to survive and talking about how Beatrice like to give them hope etc. During that talk they also mentioned that even if she says the sacrifices are choosen at random they aren't

Ah, perfect. That's the scene where they also talk about previous games, right? So they are talking about meta-Beatrice, not Sayo or the Beatrice personality that Sayo has.

[Kaiba]

Okay, too much person counting discussion. Let's try something new.
Who is the final culprit? Even if Shkanontrice is true and Sayo committed all of the magic murders, that doesn't explain the man from 19 years ago or EP3.

So before I give my theory, I'll name the culprit.

I'll admit I have three things I hate in Umineko theories:
1. Theories which go "Oh, but the red truth really meant this completely different thing so this works blah blah." (A corollary of this is I really hate any theories which target Battler, Krauss, Natushi, and Erika, due to their red truths.)
2. Theories which rely on Unknown Person X, or which attempt to make the culprit anyone but the 17 people we've been dealing with.
3. The Shkannon theory.

To be frank, this theory makes no sense at all from my perspective unless you're only explaining Episode 3, to which I'm completely confused at why you need to needlessly confuse things with Nanjo's granddaughter and not just Nanjo himself. At best, you have the culprit of Episode 3 (whom as most people have observed was probably different than the culprit of the other Episodes), at worst, you have nothing, as as far as we know, all the surviving relatives of the people who were on the island got money, so no one's really suspicious then. Furthermore, you state that Nanjo is nothing like Gaap, so it can't be Nanjo but 1. We know nothing, absolute nothing about the granddaughter and 2. I don't think the same person who is Gaap is Beatrice, so if anything, this rules out Nanjo.

So yeah, I'm completely confused and have no idea how the money can be used to deduce a culprit.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

I'll admit I have three things I hate in Umineko theories:
1. Theories which go "Oh, but the red truth really meant this completely different thing so this works blah blah." (A corollary of this is I really hate any theories which target Battler, Krauss, Natushi, and Erika, due to their red truths.)
2. Theories which rely on Unknown Person X, or which attempt to make the culprit anyone but the 17 people we've been dealing with.
3. The Shkannon theory.

To be frank, this theory makes no sense at all from my perspective unless you're only explaining Episode 3, to which I'm completely confused at why you need to needlessly confuse things with Nanjo's granddaughter and not just Nanjo himself. At best, you have the culprit of Episode 3 (whom as most people have observed was probably different than the culprit of the other Episodes), at worst, you have nothing, as as far as we know, all the surviving relatives of the people who were on the island got money, so no one's really suspicious then. Furthermore, you state that Nanjo is nothing like Gaap, so it can't be Nanjo but 1. We know nothing, absolute nothing about the granddaughter and 2. I don't think the same person who is Gaap is Beatrice, so if anything, this rules out Nanjo.

So yeah, I'm completely confused and have no idea how the money can be used to deduce a culprit.

Umm, did you read my whole theory? ^^

[Kaiba]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Umm, did you read my whole theory? ^^

As far as I can tell, yeah, but I don't get it. As far as I can tell, it's:
In Episode 3, Nanjo's granddaughter disguised herself as Nanjo, ran around and killed everyone. and possibly in the other Episodes.
But yeah, your writing in general doesn't make any sense as I don't understand it.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

As far as I can tell, yeah, but I don't get it. As far as I can tell, it's:
In Episode 3, Nanjo's granddaughter disguised herself as Nanjo, ran around and killed everyone. and possibly in the other Episodes.
But yeah, your writing in general doesn't make any sense as I don't understand it.

It's based on the Shkanontrice theory. Sayo was the killer, but Nanjo takes over when Sayo dies or can't finish. I think I made that pretty clear:

The most simple answer is that there is an entirely different culprit who is using Sayo's actions to his/her advantage.

[Renall]

Alright, I'll bite. Here's an alternative non-shkanon theory. This is going to be 1-5 though, as I haven't read enough of 6 to coherently integrate it. There are a few notions taken from 6, but only the ones I've heard about. The theory is not dependent on shkanon, although it can work with or without it. More or less.

And this is just a guess, or an alternative.

Spoiler for Wild Speculation Ensues:

Spoiler for The Identity of the Mastermind:

George.

George has been shown to have a ruthless personality percolating under his marshmallow exterior. He is willing to sacrifice everyone else for Shannon, albeit as a bluff in a magic scene. Through his parents and Shannon he potentially has access to knowledge about the past and future of the Ushiromiya family. He has the positioning and training to become the next head, but realizes there may well be nothing left of it by the time he gets his hands on it.

I am making the leap of faith to believe he is willing to kill for it, and potentially kill most of the family - at the very least, the entire "adult" generation.

George's role is to coordinate the murders, choose or potentially even perpetrate the First Twilight, make threatening calls and formulate (but not write in his own hand) the letters. He avoids getting his hands dirty once bodies start piling up, and in fact tries to formulate alibis and prod the survivors to act in certain ways.

Spoiler for The Willing Accomplices:

Shannon and Kanon (or shkanon if they are the same), Nanjo, Kumasawa. Shannon and Kanon (or shkanon) are the killers. Nanjo is there to confirm alibis, cover up fake deaths if necessary, and may be the one who set up the bomb. He may also be a backup killer if something should happen to Shannon/Kanon.

Kumasawa is not a direct accomplice to George, but she is a direct accomplice to "Beatrice," aka Shannon. She is quite literally Virgilia; she taught "magic," trickery, and the Beatrice legend to Shannon. If Kumasawa is involved, it's for Shannon or Kinzo's sake, or out of intimidation.

Shannon and Kumasawa may have their own plans. One of Shannon's plans is to spare Battler; George does not desire or intend this but he also doesn't care if Battler is left alive for a while. If Kanon is not Shannon, he may also have his own plans, or may at certain times decide to go against the plan because he loses his nerve, finds it distasteful, or thinks it endangers Jessica (George may have promised to spare the cousins, and Kanon may come to doubt this in some episodes).

Spoiler for The Unwilling Accomplices:

Gohda, Rosa, Jessica, Maria, and Genji. These people help the killers without realizing they're doing it, or they realize it but don't intend to stick with the plan. Gohda, Maria, and possibly Jessica are unwittingly manipulated. They don't kill, but they are useful for the plans. Maria's connection to "Beatrice" makes her easy to control. Rosa and Genji may be recruited into the plans or threatened, but they have no intention of going along with them and are disposed of if they do not prove amenable.

The rough plan is to commit a mysterious serial murder following the epitaph, which the mastermind does not know refers to the actual gold. The cousins are promised to be spared, although the mastermind may not be sincere. The primary targets are the adults and servants who do not go along with the plan, in order to keep the survivors easily controllable. The plan goes right in ep1, but in subsequent episodes always breaks down:

Spoiler for Episode 1's Plan:

Shannon and/or George perpetrate the First Twilight, taking as targets of opportunity everyone in the mansion at the time. For whatever reason, they are not able to get Natsuhi, so they decide to spare her, believing she is weak-willed. The Second Twilight finishes off Eva and Hideyoshi. The death of Kanon is faked, or else he is badly wounded by Shannon (if no shkanon) but does not die, or fakes his own death to try to track down the killer after breaking from the plan. Natsuhi proves unexpectedly strong in a crisis, and Maria or Kumasawa is needed to sow discord and get people separated. George uses the "man from 19 years ago" ploy via a letter to attract Natsuhi to the foyer where Shannon can kill her. The plan is about to be revealed to the surviving cousins when the bomb goes off and everyone is killed.

Spoiler for Episode 2's Plan:

Shannon poses as "Beatrice" and is able to get the adults to yield to some plan (perhaps an alternative plan where no one needs to die; she may know about the epitaph); George or Kanon or someone kills the adults anyway. Rosa is left alive as either a scapegoat or an intimidated accomplice. Jessica and Kanon are killed to keep the plan from collapsing. Rosa decides to fight back and enlists Genji's help. Either they or Gohda (in self-defense) kill George and Shannon. Rosa uses the letter as a ploy to isolate Battler and see how he acts, as if to test him and see whose side he is on. Before the matter can be properly resolved, the bomb kills everyone.

Spoiler for Episode 3's Derail:

Kanon and Shannon (or shkanon, whatever) is killed for some reason. Either Genji kills them when they come after him, George kills them because they were backing out, or Nanjo breaks from the plan and arranges his own First Twilight. Either way, their bodies are used in the First Twilight. George's plans are largely neutered without his agents, and to make matters worse, Eva solves the epitaph and finds the gold. Eva and Rosa get into an argument and Eva kills Rosa in an accident and Maria in a panic. Kyrie and Rudolf become suspicious of Hideyoshi and Eva and go to the mansion where they shoot each other. Nanjo stakes the victims, though Kyrie is still alive. Krauss and Natsuhi become suspicious of the increasingly-unstable Eva, who strangles them. George slips out (I guess he could perhaps also be the staker) and either finds the numbers on the door (put there by Nanjo) or writes them himself for Nanjo. Kyrie thinks he is part of an Eva/Hideyoshi plot and kills him, and later kills Nanjo before dying. Jessica is blinded and sneaks off on her own, eventually dying to the bomb. Eva gets into a heated argument with Battler and shoots him out of paranoia, then flees to Kuwadorian wracked with guilt. The bomb explodes and Eva is spared.

Spoiler for Episode 4's Plan:

The plan here is accelerated due to the pressure to produce Kinzo. Krauss may be planning to confess to the scheme. The servants are to hold hostages, including Krauss. Either a gunfight breaks out before this can happen or some of the hostages are executed after being separated into two groups. Krauss, Kyrie, and Nanjo at the very least are held. Krauss and Kyrie are able to deduce that the servants are being used, and wrangle the truth out of them. They decide to betray the plan, and George is killed when he goes to the arbor to meet with his accomplices. Alternately, Jessica kills George and knows she will be made to pay for it. I'm not yet sure why Kyrie dies, although if Jessica killed George of her own volition then Shannon may have tried to kill some of the other hostages, or Kyrie escaped and was hunted down later. Kyrie's telephone call is a gentle lie told to Battler, exhorting him to believe in ridiculous magic so he doesn't have to face the truth.

Either way, with George out of the picture, Shannon as "Beatrice" can test Battelr directly about his sin, the only reason she was willing to go along with the plan in the first place. When Battler fails, she goes inside, poisons Maria (or has already done so), and kills Krauss and Nanjo who were trying to flee to the well (possibly at her request). She commits suicide at the well such that the head-smashing weapon will fall into the grate.

Battler is left alone, as Shannon intended should he fail to remember his sin. She expects him to live, but the bomb kills him.

Spoiler for Episode 5's Plan:

Battler solves the epitaph. This aborts the murder plan. A series of fake murders are constructed either to test Erika, reward Erika, or pressure Natsuhi. George may have come up with the ideas for some of the murders, or maybe he didn't. Someone else takes the opportunity to kidnap and murder Krauss, and may have murdered the First Twilight victims (or not). Possibly Kanon (only if he isn't Shannon) or Nanjo.

Either way, everyone dies in the bomb blast. Whoops!

So this raises the obvious question: If the mastermind didn't come up with the bomb, who did?

Spoiler for Bomb Suspects:

1) Kinzo: He always loved his "family" with Beatrice more than he loved his real family. The bomb is the witch of the epitaph. Even if you find the gold, you can't pass the ninth twilight (where the "witch" is revived) unless you disarm the device. Genji may be aware of the device, but he is often killed before he can do anything to stop it. In ep2, where he survives, he may have warned Rosa and Maria too late to get away, although they nearly did.

2) Krauss: He is prone to overreacting, after all. He also dies guaranteed in 1-5, so he'd never be alive to warn anyone.

3) Nanjo: Although he plays the part of the patsy and accomplice to the schemes of whoever threatens him, he has closer connections to Kinzo than most people on the island. As his friend, there may be some testament he is acting out that he knows, or at least believes, is Kinzo's last will. Alternately, since he knows he'll be getting compensated whether or not he survives, why not make it a sure thing?

4) George: Or whoever the mastermind is. In this case, the mastermind knows about the bomb, but doesn't tell anyone else. However, I get the sense the main murderer probably doesn't know about the bomb, because why even have the bomb there? Insurance? If so, shouldn't George have been getting antsy in ep1 as the clock ticked closer to midnight and he didn't have time to disarm? Of course, if George isn't the mastermind, and the mastermind is often killed before he can warn anyone, this isn't a problem for ep1.

Really, there is only one thing out of this theory that I believe is probably true:

Kinzo's children and their spouses are generally innocent of any murders.

[Arkwright]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

@arkwright:

Spoiler for size:

Originally Posted by chronotrig

I think that red text applies to the events on the island itself. It's very possible that Nanjo didn't actually kill anyone on the island in EP1. Remember that it was Lambda who used this red even though Beato refused to, so it could easily be worded in that way. In addition, since Lambda is talking after the game is over, it's possible that she's referring to Doctor Nanjo. A nasty trick that Beato would never use. Also, it's perfectly possible that Nanjo GD didn't actually kill her grandfather, but made a cast of his face or something.

For the time being, I'll put my one biggest flaw "disguising Nanjo's face" aside and see if I can make a theory that explains everything else satisfactorily.

The voice and mannerisms are the biggest issues I have with the idea, personally (as... disturbingly fitting as a morbid parody of Detective Conan might be.) Nevertheless, putting that aside...

I think if she killed her grandfather Lambda would have had to say "culprit" instead. But that's not the only problem with that red - if you are trying to make Nanjo responsible for a bomb that goes off at midnight, then she kills quite a few people in episode 1. Granted, the Doctor Nanjo trick would get around it if we assume Lambda is capable of saying it, and has reason to say that to Bernkastel.

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Why not Kanon?

Well, this is how I imagine that explanation if I lay out the scene as it happens. I hope you will understand how I find it hard to accept, and correct any misunderstandings I have of your theory.

Spoiler for space:

1. Everyone except the "victims" thus far is gathered together in the same room. Kumasawa and Kanon go off together towards the boiler room. In the hall, they hear a door slam. Kanon runs ahead supposedly because he thinks the culprit is in the boiler room. (Who slammed the door? Or was it fake and a useless clue?)

2. Kanon "discovers the culprit" in the boiler room. He runs out the door in a hurry, but instead of just using that as his opportunity to disappear, he walks back inside for some reason, leaving the door open a crack. Then he takes out the stake, soaks it in fake blood, spilling some on the floor, and lays face down in the fake blood so that people don't see the "chest wound."

2b. Kanon "discovers the culprit" in the boiler room. He runs out the door in a hurry, but instead of just using that as his opportunity to disappear, he walks back inside for some reason, leaving the door open a crack. Then he takes out the stake and stabs himself in the chest to make a believable chest wound.

3. Kumasawa, Natsuhi, Genji, and Battler walk in shortly afterwards and notice Kanon lying on the floor. It is actually the real Kanon, as no body double tricks exist! Battler pulls out a flashlight and notices nothing special in the dark but pipes and a door, and falls for Kanon's attempt to make it look like someone ran out the door in a hurry. He races out the door.

4. Battler looks around frantically in the courtyard with Natsuhi behind him, but sees no one else. In the meantime, Kumasawa and Genji let Kanon lie on the floor and never check for his "chest wound" or attempt to stop the bleeding.

5. Nanjo, George, and Jessica arrive, and along with Kumasawa, they carry Kanon out of the boiler room, towards the servants room. None of them notices that he is not bleeding anymore and the chest wound is fake. Maria also arrives at some point.

6. Battler comes back into the boiler room and finds out that those 4 have brought Kanon to the servants' room. They later find out he "died," but everyone including the children either never noticed the lack of chest wound (and Kanon's true gender, and life or death status) or chose to hide it from Battler.

0. Since Nanjo was the one to burn Kinzo's corpse to hide the smell of gas leaking from the boiler, and Shannon/Kanon didn't know the boiler was going to explode, Shannon never knew there was going to be a suspicious smell coming from the boiler room. She improvised the whole thing as she went along.

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Let me add onto my theory to explain these two points:

Spoiler for Nanjo culprit theory:

Spoiler for Sayo culprit theory:

First off, I think that all the "roulette" references actually have some basis, and these references almost always refer to the first twilight. Furthermore, we hear that some risk must be present in all magic, so it isn't strange that the person responsible would put themselves on the line as well.

In other words, Sayo always chooses the first twilight completely at random. When she kills Shannon or Kanon, she continues on as the other, and whenever both die, she continues on as Beatrice. For now, let's just say that Kanon and Shannon were both chosen for the first twilight and that this somehow led to Sayo dying as Kanon (there is always a Shannon corpse lying around, so it might be a fake...maybe even Erika's)

Spoiler for Why does Nanjo help?:

First off, if Nanjo knows the whole story, she also realizes that Sayo is planning to stop the murders as long as Battler remembers his sin. That's why the letters with the money wouldn't arrive until after the crime was finished. Nanjo goes there to make absolutely sure that Sayo goes through with her plan, but also to plant the bomb and remove all the evidence. If the event were investigated as a crime instead of an accident, there's a greater chance that something might be discovered. Also, the explosion would remove most of the evidence itself. This ensures that the money Sayo sent wouldn't be found and that Nanjo herself wouldn't be implicated.

And, if Nanjo is the child from 19 years ago, it's possible that she wants to take revenge personally.

I suppose disregarding my narrative complaints, that can work, although I've already stated the problems with the bomb. Really I think episode 1 is as much of a problem for Shannon = Kanon as episode 3 is... Pretty much everything is an obstacle. Shannon's death, the magic circle on Natsuhi's door, Eva/Hideyoshi (was she hiding under the bed? Or did Kumasawa watch her kill them after they forced their way in?), Kanon's death, the letter in Kinzo's study, the bomb. I would have imagined Nanjo would lend considerably more of a hand here if not for the red (which can admittedly be questionably weaseled around.)

One more note:

Originally Posted by chronotrig

@Marion:
2. If Shkanontrice is true, there can be no accomplice. Who else would willingly go along with the magic side of the murders? And would Sayo really trust anyone with that?

In addition to some points mentioned above, did she break herself out of the shed?

[rogerpepitone]

@chronotrig:

Spoiler:

Under your hypothesis, Nanjo's granddaughter plants the bomb. Why doesn't she (say) set it to go off on October 4 at 1 AM, then carry out whatever escape plan she had prepared?

Also, how far in advance had Sayo been planning? What would she have done if there hadn't been a typhoon to cut them off?

[chronotrig]

First off, sorry if I've misunderstood your arguments here. I'll try to address them as I understand them.

Originally Posted by Arkwright

Spoiler for size:

I think if she killed her grandfather Lambda would have had to say "culprit" instead. But that's not the only problem with that red - if you are trying to make Nanjo responsible for a bomb that goes off at midnight, then she kills quite a few people in episode 1. Granted, the Doctor Nanjo trick would get around it if we assume Lambda is capable of saying it, and has reason to say that to Bernkastel.

The explosion itself doesn't happen until after the game. I don't think red referring to the game can apply to things outside the game board. Or, you could argue that since the game ends at midnight and the bomb goes off shortly after that, then at the time Lambda says the red, the bomb hasn't yet killed anyone and Nanjo "is not a murderer" (yet).

So there are a few ways to get around this problem.

Under your hypothesis, Nanjo's granddaughter plants the bomb. Why doesn't she (say) set it to go off on October 4 at 1 AM, then carry out whatever escape plan she had prepared?

Because she couldn't actually sneak a bomb onto the island. The explosion was caused by gas leaking from the boiler.


And to answer the other questions, give me a day or so. I'll try to make a full theory for EP1.
I do have ideas for all of them.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Spoiler for size:

1. We only hear about the illness from Nanjo's son's TIPs and from Nanjo herself. There's no proof that it was the kind that would leave her bedridden or something.
2. If Shkanontrice is true, there can be no accomplice. Who else would willingly go along with the magic side of the murders? And would Sayo really trust anyone with that?
3. Sure, Kinzo has an orphanage, but he employs them as servants. Would he really want one of them as his successor?
4. It never said when Nanjo's granddaughter died.
5. Nanjo was introduced in the beginning, so rule #1 doesn't apply. If Shkanontrice is true, someone on the island must have been in disguise, and Nanjo's granddaughter is the only one who fits the profile.
6. Well, I never said Gaap has to be Nanjo, but remember that Nanjo's granddaughter isn't a servant either.

Spoiler for response (EP 6 spoilers):

1. Why would he lie about that though?
2. Why can there be no accomplice? You do realize how perfectly coordinated everything would need to be for no accomplice. Not to mention Shannon doesn't look like a strong person physically at all - how could she carry bodies away when the time is needed or go against people who are probably bigger than she is in size, like Hideyoshi or Krauss.
3. At the time Kinzo gave the baby to Natsuhi he just looked fed up at everything and just wanted there to be a successor, rather than keep waiting for Natsuhi and Krauss. Then at the time of the baby's death he was yelling around about Beatrice again. And again I can't imagine Nanjo just giving away his granddaughter away like that. Her very existence is only first time mentioned in EP 3 and we get some info on her in EP 4. To be honest if Ryukishi just sprung that on us as a second culprit I would be major pissed. Shkannon I can handle and Shkannontrice is ridiculous in many respects, but Nanjo = Nanjo's sick granddaughter, who we are only introduced to in terms of her existence in EP 3 for one moment, is just going too far.
4. It says that in Masayuki's TIPs that she had an incurable disease and couldn't live out her normal lifespan. Unless you want to think TIPs are unreliable.
5. Now this is confusing. Isn't the point of Shkannontrice coming back from the grave because of the red Battler and Beatrice stated at the cathedral? Why would we need another disguised person exactly. And what prevents the disguised person being Kyrie=Kasumi, since your interpretation of Knox #1 means that Kasumi can look like Kyrie and everything would be fine.
6. Fair point. I just don't see why a random girl disguising as her elderly grandfather would be alluded to as Gaap.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Marion

Spoiler for response (EP 6 spoilers):

1. Why would he lie about that though?
2. Why can there be no accomplice? You do realize how perfectly coordinated everything would need to be for no accomplice. Not to mention Shannon doesn't look like a strong person physically at all - how could she carry bodies away when the time is needed or go against people who are probably bigger than she is in size, like Hideyoshi or Krauss.
3. At the time Kinzo gave the baby to Natsuhi he just looked fed up at everything and just wanted there to be a successor, rather than keep waiting for Natsuhi and Krauss. Then at the time of the baby's death he was yelling around about Beatrice again. And again I can't imagine Nanjo just giving away his granddaughter away like that. Her very existence is only first time mentioned in EP 3 and we get some info on her in EP 4. To be honest if Ryukishi just sprung that on us as a second culprit I would be major pissed. Shkannon I can handle and Shkannontrice is ridiculous in many respects, but Nanjo = Nanjo's sick granddaughter, who we are only introduced to in terms of her existence in EP 3 for one moment, is just going too far.
4. It says that in Masayuki's TIPs that she had an incurable disease and couldn't live out her normal lifespan. Unless you want to think TIPs are unreliable.
5. Now this is confusing. Isn't the point of Shkannontrice coming back from the grave because of the red Battler and Beatrice stated at the cathedral? Why would we need another disguised person exactly. And what prevents the disguised person being Kyrie=Kasumi, since your interpretation of Knox #1 means that Kasumi can look like Kyrie and everything would be fine.
6. Fair point. I just don't see why a random girl disguising as her elderly grandfather would be alluded to as Gaap.

Spoiler for size:

1. Umm, Nanjo is the second culprit in my theory, right? So it makes sense that she'd say that as she's about to be killed by one of those she tried to murder.
2. Given all night to do it, anyone could carry those corpses. There's even wheelbarrow lying around somewhere, right? I say that if it is at all possible for the murders to be carried out without an accomplice, Ryuukishi would do it.
3. Remember, Nanjo being the child from 19 years ago is only a second reason supporting this theory. It is not needed and I have laid out the evidence pointing to her without it.
4. An incurable disease doesn't mean the same thing as bedridden. And yes, that might be a lie. "Nanjo" said he had a sick grandchild in EP3, right? This might be Beatrice playing on that to provide an excuse when announcing the important info: the granddaughter died sometime after Nanjo left home.
5. Kyrie/Kasumi is impossible to fit in with this theory. Kyrie herself was alive on the island, stated in red: Kyrie was thinking that food was unnecessary. She claimed that they should not leave the guesthouse.

As for point six, I've changed my mind. Let's say Gaap is Jessica, not Nanjo. There's someone else who holds giving it your all against impossible odds as the highest ideal, who knows all about the truth of the crime, and who is capable of faking the voice of the man from 19 years ago. By the way, whoever is behind the bomb, it seems that their plan succeeds with absolute certainty every time we see it.

[Used Can]

Hmm... I've been thinking. What if Kanon and Shannon did exist as their own entities before the incidents in 1986? However, say, 1 or 2 weeks before the conference one of them died, and for some unknown reason X, the one that was alive was made to also play the other's role. I think that'd make Shkanon slightly less shitty.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Used Can

Hmm... I've been thinking. What if Kanon and Shannon did exist as their own entities before the incidents in 1986? However, say, 1 or 2 weeks before the conference one of them died, and for some unknown reason X, the one that was alive was made to also play the other's role. I think that'd make Shkanon slightly less shitty.

Let's stop with the personal attacks, shall we? Unless you know all possible Shkanon theories, you can't deny the possibility that a good one exists.

And "no one can take Kanon's name", so it'd have to be Kanon playing as Shannon.

[Used Can]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Let's stop with the personal attacks, shall we?

What? I'm not attacking any theory, mate...

Originally Posted by chronotrig

And "no one can take Kanon's name", so it'd have to be Kanon playing as Shannon.

Hmm... I forgot about that. Additionally, it'd be easy for him to use pads, rather than having Shannon hide her tits (unless those were fake).

[Megaolix]

Originally Posted by Renall

Alright, I'll bite. Here's an alternative non-shkanon theory. This is going to be 1-5 though, as I haven't read enough of 6 to coherently integrate it. There are a few notions taken from 6, but only the ones I've heard about. The theory is not dependent on shkanon, although it can work with or without it. More or less.

And this is just a guess, or an alternative.

Spoiler for Wild Speculation Ensues:

Spoiler for The Identity of the Mastermind:

George.

George has been shown to have a ruthless personality percolating under his marshmallow exterior. He is willing to sacrifice everyone else for Shannon, albeit as a bluff in a magic scene. Through his parents and Shannon he potentially has access to knowledge about the past and future of the Ushiromiya family. He has the positioning and training to become the next head, but realizes there may well be nothing left of it by the time he gets his hands on it.

I am making the leap of faith to believe he is willing to kill for it, and potentially kill most of the family - at the very least, the entire "adult" generation.

George's role is to coordinate the murders, choose or potentially even perpetrate the First Twilight, make threatening calls and formulate (but not write in his own hand) the letters. He avoids getting his hands dirty once bodies start piling up, and in fact tries to formulate alibis and prod the survivors to act in certain ways.

Spoiler for The Willing Accomplices:

Shannon and Kanon (or shkanon if they are the same), Nanjo, Kumasawa. Shannon and Kanon (or shkanon) are the killers. Nanjo is there to confirm alibis, cover up fake deaths if necessary, and may be the one who set up the bomb. He may also be a backup killer if something should happen to Shannon/Kanon.

Kumasawa is not a direct accomplice to George, but she is a direct accomplice to "Beatrice," aka Shannon. She is quite literally Virgilia; she taught "magic," trickery, and the Beatrice legend to Shannon. If Kumasawa is involved, it's for Shannon or Kinzo's sake, or out of intimidation.

Shannon and Kumasawa may have their own plans. One of Shannon's plans is to spare Battler; George does not desire or intend this but he also doesn't care if Battler is left alive for a while. If Kanon is not Shannon, he may also have his own plans, or may at certain times decide to go against the plan because he loses his nerve, finds it distasteful, or thinks it endangers Jessica (George may have promised to spare the cousins, and Kanon may come to doubt this in some episodes).

Spoiler for The Unwilling Accomplices:

Gohda, Rosa, Jessica, Maria, and Genji. These people help the killers without realizing they're doing it, or they realize it but don't intend to stick with the plan. Gohda, Maria, and possibly Jessica are unwittingly manipulated. They don't kill, but they are useful for the plans. Maria's connection to "Beatrice" makes her easy to control. Rosa and Genji may be recruited into the plans or threatened, but they have no intention of going along with them and are disposed of if they do not prove amenable.

The rough plan is to commit a mysterious serial murder following the epitaph, which the mastermind does not know refers to the actual gold. The cousins are promised to be spared, although the mastermind may not be sincere. The primary targets are the adults and servants who do not go along with the plan, in order to keep the survivors easily controllable. The plan goes right in ep1, but in subsequent episodes always breaks down:

Spoiler for Episode 1's Plan:

Shannon and/or George perpetrate the First Twilight, taking as targets of opportunity everyone in the mansion at the time. For whatever reason, they are not able to get Natsuhi, so they decide to spare her, believing she is weak-willed. The Second Twilight finishes off Eva and Hideyoshi. The death of Kanon is faked, or else he is badly wounded by Shannon (if no shkanon) but does not die, or fakes his own death to try to track down the killer after breaking from the plan. Natsuhi proves unexpectedly strong in a crisis, and Maria or Kumasawa is needed to sow discord and get people separated. George uses the "man from 19 years ago" ploy via a letter to attract Natsuhi to the foyer where Shannon can kill her. The plan is about to be revealed to the surviving cousins when the bomb goes off and everyone is killed.

Spoiler for Episode 2's Plan:

Shannon poses as "Beatrice" and is able to get the adults to yield to some plan (perhaps an alternative plan where no one needs to die; she may know about the epitaph); George or Kanon or someone kills the adults anyway. Rosa is left alive as either a scapegoat or an intimidated accomplice. Jessica and Kanon are killed to keep the plan from collapsing. Rosa decides to fight back and enlists Genji's help. Either they or Gohda (in self-defense) kill George and Shannon. Rosa uses the letter as a ploy to isolate Battler and see how he acts, as if to test him and see whose side he is on. Before the matter can be properly resolved, the bomb kills everyone.

Spoiler for Episode 3's Derail:

Kanon and Shannon (or shkanon, whatever) is killed for some reason. Either Genji kills them when they come after him, George kills them because they were backing out, or Nanjo breaks from the plan and arranges his own First Twilight. Either way, their bodies are used in the First Twilight. George's plans are largely neutered without his agents, and to make matters worse, Eva solves the epitaph and finds the gold. Eva and Rosa get into an argument and Eva kills Rosa in an accident and Maria in a panic. Kyrie and Rudolf become suspicious of Hideyoshi and Eva and go to the mansion where they shoot each other. Nanjo stakes the victims, though Kyrie is still alive. Krauss and Natsuhi become suspicious of the increasingly-unstable Eva, who strangles them. George slips out (I guess he could perhaps also be the staker) and either finds the numbers on the door (put there by Nanjo) or writes them himself for Nanjo. Kyrie thinks he is part of an Eva/Hideyoshi plot and kills him, and later kills Nanjo before dying. Jessica is blinded and sneaks off on her own, eventually dying to the bomb. Eva gets into a heated argument with Battler and shoots him out of paranoia, then flees to Kuwadorian wracked with guilt. The bomb explodes and Eva is spared.

Spoiler for Episode 4's Plan:

The plan here is accelerated due to the pressure to produce Kinzo. Krauss may be planning to confess to the scheme. The servants are to hold hostages, including Krauss. Either a gunfight breaks out before this can happen or some of the hostages are executed after being separated into two groups. Krauss, Kyrie, and Nanjo at the very least are held. Krauss and Kyrie are able to deduce that the servants are being used, and wrangle the truth out of them. They decide to betray the plan, and George is killed when he goes to the arbor to meet with his accomplices. Alternately, Jessica kills George and knows she will be made to pay for it. I'm not yet sure why Kyrie dies, although if Jessica killed George of her own volition then Shannon may have tried to kill some of the other hostages, or Kyrie escaped and was hunted down later. Kyrie's telephone call is a gentle lie told to Battler, exhorting him to believe in ridiculous magic so he doesn't have to face the truth.

Either way, with George out of the picture, Shannon as "Beatrice" can test Battelr directly about his sin, the only reason she was willing to go along with the plan in the first place. When Battler fails, she goes inside, poisons Maria (or has already done so), and kills Krauss and Nanjo who were trying to flee to the well (possibly at her request). She commits suicide at the well such that the head-smashing weapon will fall into the grate.

Battler is left alone, as Shannon intended should he fail to remember his sin. She expects him to live, but the bomb kills him.

Spoiler for Episode 5's Plan:

Battler solves the epitaph. This aborts the murder plan. A series of fake murders are constructed either to test Erika, reward Erika, or pressure Natsuhi. George may have come up with the ideas for some of the murders, or maybe he didn't. Someone else takes the opportunity to kidnap and murder Krauss, and may have murdered the First Twilight victims (or not). Possibly Kanon (only if he isn't Shannon) or Nanjo.

Either way, everyone dies in the bomb blast. Whoops!

So this raises the obvious question: If the mastermind didn't come up with the bomb, who did?

Spoiler for Bomb Suspects:

1) Kinzo: He always loved his "family" with Beatrice more than he loved his real family. The bomb is the witch of the epitaph. Even if you find the gold, you can't pass the ninth twilight (where the "witch" is revived) unless you disarm the device. Genji may be aware of the device, but he is often killed before he can do anything to stop it. In ep2, where he survives, he may have warned Rosa and Maria too late to get away, although they nearly did.

2) Krauss: He is prone to overreacting, after all. He also dies guaranteed in 1-5, so he'd never be alive to warn anyone.

3) Nanjo: Although he plays the part of the patsy and accomplice to the schemes of whoever threatens him, he has closer connections to Kinzo than most people on the island. As his friend, there may be some testament he is acting out that he knows, or at least believes, is Kinzo's last will. Alternately, since he knows he'll be getting compensated whether or not he survives, why not make it a sure thing?

4) George: Or whoever the mastermind is. In this case, the mastermind knows about the bomb, but doesn't tell anyone else. However, I get the sense the main murderer probably doesn't know about the bomb, because why even have the bomb there? Insurance? If so, shouldn't George have been getting antsy in ep1 as the clock ticked closer to midnight and he didn't have time to disarm? Of course, if George isn't the mastermind, and the mastermind is often killed before he can warn anyone, this isn't a problem for ep1.

Really, there is only one thing out of this theory that I believe is probably true:

Kinzo's children and their spouses are generally innocent of any murders.

Spoiler for Speculation discussion:

I would like to propose an alternative of your theory to Episode 2 end. How about Shannon and George kills Gohda, but Shannon have enough, resulting in a fight where they kill each other? The rest would go about how it ended, with Battler and Genji going boom and Rosa, in a panic to get away from the island, drown with Maria.

And I like the idea of running to the well. What if they were never in a jail in the first place and actually ran to it, instead of away from it?

Still doesn't help about Kanon's missing corpse... Especially since he died first in Kyrie's group. Maybe he tried to go disarm the device and Shannon got him first? (And since Battler doesn't find it, that's why he can't find Kanon either).

As for Kinzo setting up the device, there's something lacking in the theory: the trigger. There's no way he would have put so much time on the timer himself. Someone else or something needs to activate it if Kinzo really is the one who brought it.

All in all, it sounds very solid. Since Jessica also participated in the gentle lie, saying 'they got me', I have no doubt about Shannon's or Kanon's or both's implication in this since she probably wouldn't cover someone other than them. But it does make sure that there is more than one person in this.

[chronotrig]

EDITED: 2:00 1-6-10

Okay, here's how you can solve all of EP1 realistically with Shkanontrice + Nanjo's granddaughter as the second culprit (from here)...at least I hope so Sayo isn't aware that Nanjo is the granddaughter in disguise in this theory.

Forgive me for being a bit wordy, but I've included all of my evidence as well. I believe every single point follows naturally from the facts and the assumptions of my overall theory.

Spoiler for EP1 Theory with Shkanontrice/Nanjo:

Spoiler for The first twilight: The Failed Body Double:

For the first twilight, Sayo has access to a gun and a wheelbarrow and all night to move the 6 bodies including Erika's corpse to the shed. Of course, Sayo has enough tools to make a fairly flat-chested girl look like Shannon, so dressing up Erika's corpse isn't impossible.

**It doesn't have to be Erika's corpse, or even a corpse at all for this to work. Using Erika's corpse modifies the argument to fit the new red text introduced in EP5. EP5 is a different game than EP1-4, so this doesn't violate the text about Erika being involved in the previous games.

**Originally, Natsuhi was supposed to be one of the victims, but Sayo noticed the charm on the inside of her door. Instead of ignoring it, Sayo made bloody marks on the door to make it seem like the charm actually had power and further support the Illusion of the Witch. Doing this might have delayed her and forced her to rush to prepare the final corpse.

However, there's a problem. Three people see Shannon's corpse, and one of those--Hideyoshi--doesn't have a reason to keep quiet. It's impossible to misidentify a corpse in EP1, so all three of these people must recognize that this is not Shannon, but someone dressed up in Shannon's clothes. Maybe Sayo was trying to get away with a fake body, but it didn't work.

What would any sensible person do in this scene? Obviously, "Nanjo" and Hideyoshi suspect that Shannon is the culprit, but don't want to risk mentioning it in case she has an accomplice. Even more obviously, Hideyoshi wouldn't expect that Shannon killed all of these people on her own, so in his eyes, she must have an accomplice.

Sayo is right next to them as Kanon, and she probably realizes that they've caught on. She knows that Hideyoshi will tell Eva as soon as they are alone, and makes plans to silence them both. Don't worry, she has a plan for Nanjo as well later on...

Spoiler for The second twilight: Silencing Witness #1:

For the second twilight, Kanon leaves the parlor, cuts the chain on the guest room door, then murders Eva and Hideyoshi. He then uses enough duct tape (hey, why not?) to reset the chain. Before he goes, he paints the magic circle on the door so that Genji won't notice it.

Spoiler for door tricks:

There are a few ways to do this(thanks to ktern for some):
Cover the paint with paper or something and remove the paper later.
Use a type of paint that changes color as it sets. Most likely, Genji wouldn't be on the lookout for brown paint on the door.
Put some kind of clear glue over most of the door (except where Genji is likely to knock). Then, throw some red powder or dye over the whole door when you want to make the marks appear.

When he and Genji come by later, Genji tries the door chain, but it's mentioned that he opens the door slowly. Opening it like that won't break the duct tape easily, and it never mentions that he wiggled it around very much. Then, Kanon and Genji both head to the kitchen to meet Kumasawa. It is not clear which one of them left the front of the door first, but since they both arrive at the kitchen at about the same time, Kanon couldn't have had more than a minute or two to himself. However, this is enough time for him to use one of the methods listed above to make the marks appear on the door.

Later, Kanon returns with Kumasawa to cut the chain. Not only does Kanon cut the chain himself, he also enters the room first, giving him plenty of opportunity to pick up the duct tape while Kumasawa totally freaks out.

Spoiler for The "death" of Kanon: Silencing Witness #2:

Later, Kanon and Kumasawa go to check the smell coming from the boiler room. At this point, Sayo realizes that Kinzo's burnt corpse is in this room. This tells her that someone else has been meddling on this island, and she doesn't know who. Whoever the person was, they must have known how to find Kinzo's corpse, which would probably unsettle Sayo.

The best course of action for Sayo to take is to let Kanon "die" and go searching for this new meddler without being restricted. She fakes her own death and convinces Nanjo to hide her wounds. The boiler room is dark even with the lights on, and since Nanjo is the "medical expert", she can protect Kanon's secret. Sayo must have taken a risk here, hoping that her faked death wouldn't be discovered by anyone. However, since Nanjo is actually the second culprit, she was in less danger than she could have known. Nanjo would do anything to prevent Sayo from being discovered (that would end the crime and people would stop hiding from the culprit. Plus, who knows what Sayo might say).

Once she and Nanjo are in a room to themselves (and Jessica, who would never leave Kanon's side), Kanon explains that to catch the culprit, the best plan would be to fake Kanon's own death and thereby allow Kanon to act from the shadows. Jessica obviously agrees because she trusts Kanon. Nanjo agrees because she's done with her mission in setting the bomb (turning the gas on in the boiler room and leaving some alarm clock attached to a match or whatever delayed release device you want). All Nanjo has to do now is keep everyone confused for a little while longer and find a chance to dash into the forest. Having Sayo on the loose should make for many more impossible closed room murders to distract the others and keep them holed up indoors.

By the way, this might also be Sayo's way of keeping Nanjo quiet about Shannon's corpse. If Kanon says "I saw that it wasn't Shannon's corpse, so I faked my death back there. Don't worry about chasing her down. Don't tell anyone because she probably has an accomplice. She's like a sister to me, so I am responsible for stopping her, and I can move more freely through the shadows now that I'm dead."...then Nanjo would no longer have any reason to tell and Shannon's secret would be safe. Of course, Sayo knew that Nanjo would be the one to take care of her if she was mortally wounded, and since they had both seen Shannon's corpse together, it's possible that the two of them discussed this idea beforehand.

**If they did discuss this plan beforehand, it's unlikely that they decided on a specific time. The only reason the "death" was staged in that particular room was because Sayo saw Kinzo's corpse and became uneasy. It was probably Sayo who staked that corpse.

Spoiler for Escaping the study:

...However, Nanjo does need to slip outside herself eventually, without looking suspicious. Of course, anyone could have predicted that the survivors would eventually crowd together in some room. So Nanjo took the envelope from Maria's first letter (no one knows where it went, right?) and scribbled down some random stuff about them not having time yet. Then, she stuck in the magic circle about discord to freak the others out even more. Maria never got to look at that magic circle, so it's possible that someone other than Beatrice drew it.

After everyone crowds into the study, Nanjo just waits until they're distracted and places the letter, making sure that she does it in a way that implicates multiple people. If she made herself the only suspicious one, she might get shot dead on the spot.

Spoiler for The finale:

Before Nanjo can find an excuse to sneak out of the parlor, however, Sayo catches up to her and the others and kills them, making Maria face the wall to create a witness but hide her own identity. Of course, the phone call is used to lure the others out of the study.

**Sayo leaves a letter telling everyone that the sacrifices are over, and that they should gather in front of the portrait for the 10th twilight, but Natsuhi is the first to find it. Natsuhi decides to face off against the culprit on her own and blocks the door behind her to keep the cousins from following. Natsuhi and Sayo face off in the hallway and both shoot. Natsuhi, having no experience with guns, misses, but Sayo hits Natsuhi. Then, Sayo reveals herself to the three survivors at midnight before the bomb explodes and everyone dies. Funnily enough, the characters who appear at the tea party are exactly the same characters who met in this final scene.

Spoiler for **General Points:

The gold butterflies viewed by Shannon, Kanon, and Natsuhi right before their deaths can be explained using the Battler perspective theory. Beatrice doesn't have time before midnight to describe how the actual murders were carried out, but she is able to convince Battler that magic probably does exist. However, the form that magic takes is always vague in EP1 because Battler isn't certain and hasn't had it described to him by Beatrice.