2010-04-07, 10:13 | Link #7741 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
|
I've had my own two cents on Rules X Y Z, though mostly I agree with Judoh and Chrono. With the exception of Z, I think I'm pretty confident with my theory on them.
Rule X in Higurashi was the skeleton for the murder scenario, if I remember correctly. Tomitake and Takano died and disappeared respectively, someone became disillusioned and paranoid, and ended up murdering the others. If Rika was not included in the muder, she gets killed at a shortly later date, and the Disaster happens. So the skeleton for Umineko is that six people pretend to kill themselves in an attempt to accomplish something (my best theory is that they're trying to force Kinzo to come out of the study), but the actual culprit, accompanied by a few assistants, kills them and begins the resemblance to the epitaph. At the end, regardless of whether the true culprit survives, some sort of explosion kills any survivors. Rule Y seemed really easy to me. We know that Rule Y is the source of magic in Umineko. It's something Bern has never touched, but Beato is quite skilled in and Lambda has dabbled in. Now I'm going back to my favourite line from Virgillia in Episode 5: The line on what magic really is. She tells Battler bluntly, that magic is an embellishment, or as Battler says, a lie. So Rule Y is the creative embellishment on the story. For more proof, remember back to Higurashi. If the link between Lambda and Takano is actual, think about Takano's actions. She manipulated the Oyashirosama's Curse to her advantage, making her actions seem like the act of a supernatural being. Bern says Lambda's dabbled in Rule Y, and this seems like a pretty good example of Umineko's Rule Y in Higurashi. As I said before, Rule Z is a little shaky for me. It's something that leaves Bern hopeless, so it's something that can make the a chance of near-zero completely zero-percent. Bernkastel's ability, in magic terms, is to search tirelessly through kakera until she finds the one with the outcome she wants. In other words, whatever Rule Z is, it can create an infinite amount of kakera, so that she can't find the kakera with the outcome she wants. |
2010-04-07, 10:24 | Link #7742 | |
Kupo
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Sleeping
Age: 32
|
Quote:
__________________
|
|
2010-04-07, 11:15 | Link #7743 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Buffer overflow
|
@Raiza Sunozaki:
Spoiler for Higurashi spoilers, why not...:
__________________
|
2010-04-07, 12:29 | Link #7744 |
Junior Member
Join Date: Jan 2010
|
thios is an interesting point so let me share my thoughts about this to you:
Rule x: just like the story that always starts from june 20... this story is bound to an unavoidable faith that is fueled by a strong will Rule y: nowadays, the words magician and illusionist are just like synonnyms, the magic that we see are just ilusions created by a lie or a misunderstanding. the very existance of the witch is an ilusion rule z: the culprit doesn't follow any pre-prepared plan, she may have some guidelines but most of it depends on how the pieces move and adapt to this kind of changes |
2010-04-07, 12:35 | Link #7745 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Buffer overflow
|
Yes, that's what I thought this rule was for a long time, but if that is the case, then the culprit should respond in a more or less predictable way depending on how the pieces move. And even if the culprit chooses something completely at random, there are limits to what they would be physically capable of. So, all this means is that the maze Bern has to trek through is massively huge, but not actually changing all the time. If she plays enough games, she should eventually be able to figure out what the culprit is physically capable of, which should give enough clues to show who the culprit is.
__________________
|
2010-04-07, 13:23 | Link #7746 |
Junior Member
Join Date: Jan 2010
|
that makes sense, but you know starting from the discovery of the first murder, the movement of the pieces is extremely predictible and it's easy to start planning several steps ahead, for example in episode 2 beatrice it's said to be a guest and after discovering the first twilight she will become the prime suspect so it's obvious that some reckless idiot will just separate from the rest and leave himself wide open or how in other episodes they all lock themselves in one room while holding some kind of weapon, this is the very start of the game, and the moves the culprit can do are almost endless
|
2010-04-08, 14:47 | Link #7747 |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Just to toss a stone into the thread to see the ripples.
There is a way to bypass the red text in the end of EP6 which states that Erika both is the 18th person on the island and that there are no more than 17 people even counting Erika, which I don't seem to have seen while throughly reading this thread. It does not involve assuming any variation of Shkanon or Erika Ball. Nowhere it is said which number base is used when stating numbers in red! We were obviously assuming the numbers to be decimal, however, any base could concievably be used. So when saying "17", if number base 11 was employed, it converts to 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-A-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17 => 18 decimal! This way both seemingly contradictory statements in red do not contradict at all! Obviously it could not be that, as this destroys the usefullness of red text for any numbers longer than one digit, (incidentally, allowing one to place the 1967 Beatrice in XV or XXIII century if so desired) but this dirty trick amused me so much that I just had to share. Two plus two is... ten... in base four I'M FINE! |
2010-04-08, 15:23 | Link #7748 |
The Great Dine
Join Date: Feb 2009
|
Yeah I heard about this theory - starting with 0 rather than 1, etc.
But you're still going to get 18 people no matter what. If you start from 100 and go to 118 it's still 18 people you're counting. It's a rather lame trick to use I have to honestly say. Besides, how can you have a 9.5th person? |
2010-04-08, 15:39 | Link #7749 | |
BUY MY BOOK!!!
Join Date: May 2009
|
Quote:
For instance, in Hexadecimal numerals go from 0-9, then A-F (representing 10-16). So "17" in Hexadecimal is 23 in standard (Base 10) counting. His joke is a bit more complex, which is that in Base 11, 17 = 18 (in Base 10). Of course as he said himself, he's not being serious. It is a correct answer, though... just probably not the one ryukishi meant. |
|
2010-04-08, 16:03 | Link #7750 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Quote:
That creates problems very similar to Erika Ball or "Kinzo is a title", though smaller in magnitude and less critical -- assuming that names can be reassigned at all, we do not have information allowing us to determine when this actually happens, and therefore cannot determine which label is correct at any given point. |
|
2010-04-08, 16:09 | Link #7751 |
BUY MY BOOK!!!
Join Date: May 2009
|
The obvious difference - and obvious problem - is that Beatrice already did this with "Ushiromiya Battler," so in all fairness it becomes not just fair game to speculate on, but outright assumed, because we know for a fact that Beatrice manipulated the red in that manner.
Which is really kind of a problem, now that I think about it. |
2010-04-08, 16:15 | Link #7752 |
Dea ex Kakera
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
|
The way I see it, although name games are semantically possible, because of Knox 8, it shouldn't be allowed unless there was a clue to the specific case in question. Kanon = Kinzo is a possible theory because of various clues that point toward it, but you probably couldn't make a case for Hideyoshi = Kinzo, for instance.
|
2010-04-08, 16:17 | Link #7753 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Quote:
Come to think of it, did anybody seriously analyse those yet? There's several of them. |
|
2010-04-08, 16:20 | Link #7754 | |
BUY MY BOOK!!!
Join Date: May 2009
|
Quote:
The case for someone counting as Kinzo definitely has been raised by Battler in the first four episodes, and it wasn't directly countered. However, seems a little fishy to me to "exclude" Kinzo from a count, declare "all other people" in a certain room, then admit one of those other people wasn't there. It's possible but pretty dirty. Honestly, we only have any plausible evidence of four substitutions: 1) Someone is "Beatrice" of course (maybe multiple people). Lots of evidence for a "human" Beatrice. 2) There are or at one point were two "Ushiromiya Battlers," one was born from Asumu, and the one we know specifically was not that one. Nothing says the other Battler is alive, but this is a mystery. 3) Battler posited "Kinzo" was a title which was not itself directly countered, nor was it ever really addressed. This opens the possibility, but it does little else. 4) Someone could claim to be Natsuhi's baby from 19 years ago, assuming such a child really existed. The person claiming this need not actually be the child, but they can claim to be. |
|
2010-04-08, 16:33 | Link #7755 |
Dea ex Kakera
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
|
Right, right. I was just using it as an example. My point was that just because name substitutions are fair game doesn't mean you're lost in the wilderness. Blue theories still have to be supported with evidence.
Regarding 3), Beato's red opened the door to pretty much any theory involving an extra "Kinzo", so you shouldn't limit yourself just to Battler's variation. For instance, if you meet Bob and his son Bob Junior, you don't conclude that "Bob" is title. Of course, it would still be a flimsy theory without additional support. As for 4), I don't think we ever got a name for Natsuhi's baby, so I can't think of any name shenanigans that would work there. |
2010-04-08, 16:36 | Link #7756 | ||
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Quote:
Quote:
Throughout the red text, 'sonzai' seems to be used to denote living people whenever applied to a name and not a "name's corpse", but if they were demonstrated an object that they believed could only come from a living Kinzo or heard his voice on the phone in some fashion, they need not even have been collectively lying. |
||
2010-04-08, 16:37 | Link #7757 | |
BUY MY BOOK!!!
Join Date: May 2009
|
Well, yes, but it would lead us to ask why this person was also named or entitled "Kinzo." Battler's theory was simple enough: If Kinzo passed his name down to someone by deliberate intent before he died, a person could then claim to be him somehow.
For someone to be "Kinzo" as well without that, they would either need some legitimate cause to believe they had the right to call themselves that, or it would have to actually be their name. Both of these things are possible, but I don't know how plausible they are. Unless the baby Natsuhi was given was a boy named Kinzo. But then you start reaching. Quote:
EDIT: Now that I think about it though, if a person is actually named "Kinzo," aren't they a "living Kinzo?" How would that square with ep5? They would have been in Natsuhi's bed that night. Creepy! Last edited by Renall; 2010-04-08 at 16:48. |
|
2010-04-08, 16:48 | Link #7758 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Quote:
What if the name games are allowed if the person in question is on the game board but dead before the game starts? This way, both "Kinzo as a movable label" and "Erika as a movable label" are possible. Then again, that would legitimize certain versions of Shkanon, which I doubt is a good thing, and most importantly, it raises the question of multiple Battlers. |
|
2010-04-08, 16:53 | Link #7759 | |
Dea ex Kakera
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
|
Quote:
Here's what I have as supporting evidence for Kanon and Shannon being Kinzo's adopted children:
|
|
2010-04-08, 16:56 | Link #7760 | ||
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
|
Quote:
Quote:
|
||
|
|