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 AnimeSuki Forum [Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

 2010-09-10, 11:53 Link #17561 Jan-Poo 別にいいけど     Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: forever lost inside a logic error No a tonne is 1000 kg basically 900 tonnes are more or less like 1000 "short tons". Since in japan they use the metric system "tons" means "tonnes". __________________
 2010-09-10, 11:57 Link #17562 cmos Senior Member   Join Date: Jan 2010 It's そしてそこには、９００ｔの爆薬も眠っているのです。 The explosion effects and crater are hardly influenced by the location of explosives, how and where the power is directed and so on. It's not like they are just dumped in one pile. They were set up by the bomb technicians during the war to cause the maximum damage.
Jan-Poo

Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
Quote:
 Originally Posted by cmos They were set up by the bomb technicians during the war to cause the maximum damage.
Absolutely no. What kind of interest would have japan to blow up an island?
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cmos
Senior Member

Join Date: Jan 2010
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Jan-Poo Absolutely no. What kind of interest would have japan to blow up an island?
Well, maybe the same they had with their other suicidal stuff - to kill as many invading enemies as possible and destroy the ammunition, so it won't fall to enemy hands.

ijriims
Senior Member

Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: HK, China
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Jan-Poo No a tonne is 1000 kg basically 900 tonnes are more or less like 1000 "short tons". Since in japan they use the metric system "tons" means "tonnes".
Yes, my mistake. tonne=ton

Quote:
 Originally Posted by cmos It's そしてそこには、９００ｔの爆薬も眠っているのです。 The explosion effects and crater are hardly influenced by the location of explosives, how and where the power is directed and so on.
Are you sure? For the depth of explosive located has a significant effect on the size of the crater, at least from the website I linked.
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cmos
Senior Member

Join Date: Jan 2010
Quote:
 Originally Posted by ijriims Are you sure? For the depth of explosive located has a significant effect on the size of the crater, at least from the website I linked.
I'm sure in the quote and the fact that the bomb technicians, by setting up the (small) bombs in certain places, could destroy something or produce other effects with a much less amount of explosives, than you'll need if you just explode one big bomb. I'm not the one, though, so I can't say for sure about our crater.
And I think in the end it won't matter and will become just a useless nit-picking, just like many other things.

erneiz_hyde
18782+18782=37564

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: InterWebs
Quote:
 Originally Posted by LyricalAura For comparison, the largest man-made crater in the United States is Sedan Crater in Nevada, created by a buried nuclear weapon with a yield equivalent to 104 kilotons of TNT. That crater has a diameter of 0.39 kilometers. Are we supposed to believe that less than a hundredth of the TNT produced a crater over twice as large? For that matter, why wasn't Kuwadorian razed by ejecta in the process?
104 kilotons=104000 tons= roughly 115 times larger than total Rokkenjima bomb.

Unless the island is hollow in the first place, I find it difficult, even nigh impossible for the Rokkenjima bomb to be able to create a 1km wide crater.

OR

The crater is the existing evidence, and "900 tons explosives" is just an understatement of what actually blew up.

OR

The crater was nowhere near 1km wide, but an uncertain huge amount explosives did created that crater in the first place.

edit: WAAAIT, that Nevada bomb was detonated under a desert! And it was a controlled explosion to test weapons! The terrain should absorb a lot of the shock force of the actual explosions. Rokkenjima, on the other hand, is a small island in the middle of the sea and should be full of igneous rocks or calcareous rocks, which are extremely brittle. Not to mention the speculated depth of the bomb isn't too deep underground, which actually is perfect to create craters.

Yep, I stand corrected. I don't know if 900 tons of explosives can leave behind 1km crater behind, but I am not denying the possibility.
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Last edited by erneiz_hyde; 2010-09-10 at 15:51.

 2010-09-10, 14:09 Link #17568 hilly hilly   Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: M Well,doesn't the island have a underground cave that can keep as big as submarine? maybe there got some natural gas or oil or something would be burst out with little explosion?just speculate...
Renall

Join Date: May 2009
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Jan-Poo That of course makes Genji equally questionable, but that Genji is a robot who consider obeying his master a priority over any kind of moral issue was already ascertained.
I object. This calls for speculation; Genji demonstrates enough hints of emotional complexity that we cannot assume this was his motive in any given case.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by LyricalAura Are we supposed to believe that less than a hundredth of the TNT produced a crater over twice as large? For that matter, why wasn't Kuwadorian razed by ejecta in the process?
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Jan-Poo Absolutely no. What kind of interest would have japan to blow up an island?
Maximum love for Kinzo time!

Rokkenjima was not a submarine base. It is a secret gallery designed to house art and cultural artifacts acquired by the Japanese government from China and Taiwan during WW2. A wealthy man with ties to Taiwan, Kinzo was taken on as a structural engineer to design and operate the storage galleries in underground tunnels beneath a deserted Izu island which would be officially called a submarine rearming station. The actual storage was hidden deep in the bowels of the Rokkenjima cave system, at the "back" of the island, where the mansion would eventually be built. Kinzo was one of only a handful of personnel aware of the nature of this structure.

The Italians were arriving specifically because the Rokkenjima base was designed for Axis art and artifact storage; the gold was intended for storage there, and HQ was not notified for this reason. Beatrice Castiglioni was either an art expert, the daughter of the same, or an object of art herself (such as a portrait). She inspired Kinzo to engineer the deaths of any witnesses and, eventually, to utilize the gold to build his empire.

However, Kinzo eventually realized that all the objects stored in the caverns beneath the island carried far too much political and moral baggage to ever be revealed to anyone. If it was known that Japan was in possession of missing Taiwanese and Axis European artifacts, it could cause an international incident.
(a threat to "world peace")

Japan wired the island caverns for self-destruction in the event the Allied forces discovered it. They never did, but Kinzo left the explosives intact to protect them under similar auspices. The explosives are set up in such a way as to cause a full collapse of the underlying caverns, disrupting and destroying a huge land area 1km in size in a massive chained explosion and landslide. This would also bury or destroy the missing objects, so that they would never be located or uncovered.

After the Rokkenjima Incident, it was discovered by a select few people or by Eva that the island stored massive numbers of cultural and political artifacts, now completely destroyed. Revealing this destruction would be disastrous to Japan's reputation and spark tensions with China. The matter was covered up and declared a huge accidental explosion (which was partially true) of unknown origin. Okonogi eventually found out about this, and worried that Ange might accidentally discover something at Kuwadorian which would lead to this truth being revealed.

What? It's no crazier than any other insane theory.
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Jan-Poo

Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
Quote:
 She inspired Kinzo to engineer the deaths of any witnesses and, eventually, to utilize the gold to build his empire.
Indeed 100% love for Kinzo and Beatrice1. I totally have another opinion of them now, it was for art!!! I totally understand why he would go as far as to kill his family to protect that!
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Renall

Join Date: May 2009
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Jan-Poo Indeed 100% love for Kinzo and Beatrice1. I totally have another opinion of them now, it was for art!!! I totally understand why he would go as far as to kill his family to protect that!
He knew he was wrong after the fact. Or it wasn't his real responsibility, or an accident.

People can change their minds and recognize they're wrong. Kinzo shows a lot of remorse throughout the story! You can't prove he's not regretting all the things he's done to get where he is!

EDIT: Also, Kinzo is dead, so we can't prove he ever wanted to blow up 17 people and all the objects. He never actually did, after all, somebody else did.
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This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

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 2010-09-10, 23:22 Link #17572 Insalubrious Junior Member   Join Date: Jun 2009 While reading about the double-Shkannon theory and everything else posted over the last 10-20 pages, a thought came to me. What if the reason Natsuhi didn't reject Lion in the particular universe of Ep 7 is because in that universe, Lion was born male. I don't know that it has many huge implications, but it makes sense. We know from previous episodes that Kinzo is a bit misogynistic, and I think it was even said that he would give the headship to a male over a female, regardless of seniority. Natsuhi and Krauss were already troubled by her inability to give birth, and with Eva/Hideyoshi sneaking up on them, if she wanted to produce an heir, it would need to be male to prevent Eva's and Hideyoshi's child from usurping her dream. In that situation, why would Natsuhi accept a stranger's daughter and claim her as her own? It puts her no closer to securing the headship than before, because Eva can still give birth to a boy, and then Natsuhi's not only lost, she's stuck with someone else's kid. Of course, we know that Kinzo would have gladly given the headship to Beatrice's offspring, gender be damned, but Natsuhi doesn't know that the child she's being offered is Kinzo's and Beatrice's. Without that knowledge, she has no reason to accept the child. And so we have the story as told in those two million (or whatever the number was) worlds where Natsuhi rejects Lion/Yasu. As a consequence, the issue of Lion's breasts flies out the window. I imagine this idea has other benefits, though I can't think of them just now. I've only recently been introduced to the double-Shkannon theory, and I like it much more than basic Shkannon, though I'm not as familiar with the details as I would like to be. As further evidence, we have the scene where Will asks about Lion's gender. He/she dances around it for a while, but in the end we don't get an answer. I don't remember precisely where it is in the chronology of the episode, but if it happens after Will proposes Lion = Beatrice, Lion might be suffering a bit of a gender crisis in addition to his identity crisis, which would explain his reluctance to reveal his gender. Also, my memory could be faulty regarding Kinzo's stance on the headship's inheritance, as it's been a while since I read the other episodes, but I don't think I'm too far off base here. Last edited by Insalubrious; 2010-09-10 at 23:43. Reason: Just saw the official spellings...
 2010-09-11, 00:11 Link #17573 k//eternal do you know ベアトリーチェ様?     Join Date: Dec 2003 Age: 28 Feels like it's an inconsistency with EP5 if she threw away the child because it was female, but fails to catch this when the caller claiming to be the same person is male. Neat idea otherwise, though.
LyricalAura
Dea ex Kakera

Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
Quote:
 Originally Posted by erneiz_hyde edit: WAAAIT, that Nevada bomb was detonated under a desert! And it was a controlled explosion to test weapons! The terrain should absorb a lot of the shock force of the actual explosions. Rokkenjima, on the other hand, is a small island in the middle of the sea and should be full of igneous rocks or calcareous rocks, which are extremely brittle. Not to mention the speculated depth of the bomb isn't too deep underground, which actually is perfect to create craters. Yep, I stand corrected. I don't know if 900 tons of explosives can leave behind 1km crater behind, but I am not denying the possibility.
This still doesn't explain the lack of ejecta damage to Kuwadorian though. Whether or not the terrain would have protected it from the shockwave itself, wouldn't there still have been a rain of burning shrapnel in a significant radius around the blast site?

...I wonder if we should take that as evidence of a collapse after a deep underground explosion, rather than a near-surface blast. On the other hand, I don't actually know anything about explosives. Anybody else know whether that makes sense or not? Oliver?
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 2010-09-11, 00:56 Link #17575 Renall BUY MY BOOK!!!     Join Date: May 2009 I joked about that in that crackpot theory, but I think it's not unlikely. A 1km crater is not necessarily caused exclusively by an explosion. Explosions that collapsed ground could produce a crater too. __________________ Redaction of the Golden Witch I submit that a murder was committed in 1996. This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986. This story is a redacted confession. Blog (VN DL) - YouTube Playlists Battler Solves The Logic Error
Used Can
Senior Member

Join Date: Feb 2008
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Jan-Poo Anyway even if there is an exploiter, all evidence says that Beatrice wanted to kill everyone. If you think that the 900tons of explosive existed, then Beatrice knew about them.
I agree, but as I pointed out before, the murders also took place in Lion's world. There's no Beatrice in that world. Lion never had a reason to kill anyone. The murders took place because of the Epitaph (apparently).

In Lion's world, the one who had the family give the Epitaph a try was Kinzo. Whereas, in Yasu's world, the one who instigated it was Yasu/Beatrice. This makes me wonder how does Battler fit into all of this, since he made no sin against Lion in his/her world, yet the murders took place. The idea I've arrived at is, as long as there's an incentive big enough to solve the Epitaph, it will be solved, and the murders will happen. In Lion's world, the incentive was becoming the new head (because, otherwise, Lion would). Of course, Battler has got nothing to do in that world.

However, in Yasu's world Battler is one of the reasons behind the tragedy. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, because chances are high I may be, but I have the impression every single time a letter has been found, Battler has been there, hasn't he? So, as it has been proposed before, I believe the Epitaph and all these mysteries are just a challenge to Battler as a hint on Beatrice's true identity. Had Battler not being there, Yasu wouldn't have sent those letters, and the people in the island wouldn't have tried to solve the Epitaph, and no major incident would have happened.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Jan-Poo If it were me, I'd make disarming such a monstrous device my priority. At the very least I would destroy the trigger (disposing of the explosive would be quite problematic... but not something impossible to do in two years).
Indeed, that's what common sense would dictate? But well, what is common sense? Or, how does it work on different situations? I've also heard geniuses do not always seem to follow common sense. Of course, nor do mentally unstable people.

But I wonder, though, what if the bomb (during EP7's Tea Party) is an illusion? I'm not saying it's not there, just that the illusion of a soon-to-explode bomb was used to get some reaction from the siblings. Of course, it's been confirmed there's been an explosion, and a large one to boot. So, this idea may not hold. Unless we say Yasu/Beatrice never planned on activating a bomb, just relying on the illusion, but then someone else activated it.

Naturally, there's also the option Yasu/Beatrice kept the bomb active as the risk factor to enhance his/her magic.

There may also be other reasons behind it.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Jan-Poo That of course makes Genji equally questionable, but that Genji is a robot who consider obeying his master a priority over any kind of moral issue was already ascertained.
Well, I'd say Kumasawa is as questionable as Genji. And, of course, so is Nanjo.
All of them were covering for Yasu.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by k//eternal Feels like it's an inconsistency with EP5 if she threw away the child because it was female, but fails to catch this when the caller claiming to be the same person is male.
I think a possibility would be Natsuhi assumed the child was a boy, because Kinzo gave it to her so that that child would become the new head of the family. We know Natsuhi never really took care of that child, and that the maids were the ones who did that. So, I wouldn't be surprised if Natsuhi never saw that child's naked body.
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Insalubrious
Junior Member

Join Date: Jun 2009
Quote:
 Originally Posted by k//eternal Feels like it's an inconsistency with EP5 if she threw away the child because it was female, but fails to catch this when the caller claiming to be the same person is male. Neat idea otherwise, though.
That's a good point. I hadn't considered that. I wonder if there's something to that though. Other than that point, it really clicks for me, even though it's a minor detail.

Jan-Poo

Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Renall I joked about that in that crackpot theory, but I think it's not unlikely. A 1km crater is not necessarily caused exclusively by an explosion. Explosions that collapsed ground could produce a crater too.
But they don't pulverize human beings. The explosion we are dealing with is causing massive damage on the surface. As for the ejecta, it really depends on how big are the fragments thrown. If the explosion is concentrated enough the ejecta would be just dust.
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 2010-09-11, 04:16 Link #17579 Renall BUY MY BOOK!!!     Join Date: May 2009 The explosion only needs to kill the people near it that way. And if the victims are localized to the primary blast area (wherever that is), it's possible that they were blown up while the external radius just collapsed. It's not clear how many victims there were, and there was only one identification of any kind made. This opens up a few prospects:Only a few people exploded; the rest died in the collapse and were buried. Some people were already underground for whatever reason, so their bodies would never be located after a collapse. The explosives were distributed in such a fashion that likely refuge sites would have been fatal. Certain individuals survived the explosion(s) and collapse, but avoided or escaped notice of the searchers (due to being trapped, unconscious, conscious desire to not be found, etc.). Also, let's not forget that we're having it alleged that Kinzo was a construction engineer with the backing of the IJN and later, the Americans. I believe it is entirely plausible such a person would have the knowledge (and possibly the resources) to engineer a controlled demolition, which would leave Kuwadorian intact short of a lot of dust. This is, of course, dependent on the existence of underground tunnels, but if we're willing to believe the rest of this I don't see why we'd consider those unconfirmed at this point. __________________ Redaction of the Golden Witch I submit that a murder was committed in 1996. This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986. This story is a redacted confession. Blog (VN DL) - YouTube Playlists Battler Solves The Logic Error
erneiz_hyde
18782+18782=37564

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: InterWebs
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Used Can I agree, but as I pointed out before, the murders also took place in Lion's world. There's no Beatrice in that world. Lion never had a reason to kill anyone. The murders took place because of the Epitaph (apparently). In Lion's world, the one who had the family give the Epitaph a try was Kinzo. Whereas, in Yasu's world, the one who instigated it was Yasu/Beatrice. This makes me wonder how does Battler fit into all of this, since he made no sin against Lion in his/her world, yet the murders took place. The idea I've arrived at is, as long as there's an incentive big enough to solve the Epitaph, it will be solved, and the murders will happen. In Lion's world, the incentive was becoming the new head (because, otherwise, Lion would). Of course, Battler has got nothing to do in that world. However, in Yasu's world Battler is one of the reasons behind the tragedy. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, because chances are high I may be, but I have the impression every single time a letter has been found, Battler has been there, hasn't he? So, as it has been proposed before, I believe the Epitaph and all these mysteries are just a challenge to Battler as a hint on Beatrice's true identity. Had Battler not being there, Yasu wouldn't have sent those letters, and the people in the island wouldn't have tried to solve the Epitaph, and no major incident would have happened.
In Lion's world, the epitaph doen't exist in the first place.

The killing happening in Lion's world so far was only shown by the bully Bernkastel so I would doubt it's truth.
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