Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (March 11, 2011)

[NameGoesHere]

50Hz supply in the east
Fitch estimating 11GW. Also, nuclear energy may become a political taboo. TEPCO is probably bankrupt after this from disassembly costs alone (assuming no national bailout). Either way costs get dumped on the citizens.

Puddle results

Well, this is the TEPCO site so, it's not a useful link. Rather, just that it needs to be taken into consideration how mistakes can be made. Ex. Isotope emits multiple cascade gamma rays in prompt coincidence (no isometric states involved, intermediate state extremely short - true coincidence). Basically, all of the energy in the cascade can end up being absorbed and recorded by the detector as a single event. This produces a sum peak. As a result of the summation process, the events that would have appeared as separate peaks are removed. Summation also occur from chance coincidence events caused by independent decays. There should be no surprise that the occurrence of chance coincidences go up when the count rate increases (Fukushima)...it is important to carefully consider data...

Weather Patterns (German)

Google translate for German is surprisingly decent. I think there are people who disagree with the analysis on this site, but still it is useful.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110327/...pan_earthquake

But he ruled out having an independent monitor oversee the various checks despite the errors.

While the media hype over criticality and the hydrogen explosions were rather unwarranted, with the power back on it's becoming clear that it is not going to be a quick fix. Sand and concrete is not a realistic answer by any stretch of the imagination. I think it's important to remember that the truth is most often between two extremes.

I know the discussion of Chernobyl was OT, but from a safety perspective...yes, wildlife has returned, however it is undisputed that the radiation does cause abnormal mutations. What is disputed is the damage done over the course of a lifetime (wildlife returning really just says that the populations live long enough to reproduce). Personally, I wouldn't raise kids in a fall-out zone...

[Decagon]

Originally Posted by Random32

How long will the shortage last?

It seems that all the nuclear plants in the region are in cold shutdown. Are there efforts going on to start them back up in the near future? Will the plants in the region be enough to stop the power shortage or is the loss of the 4 Fukushima Daiichi reactors too much and there will be shortage until Units 7 and 8 come online in what seems to be 2012, probably later due to this incident.

Sorry, I know a fair bit about the technology, but I'm clueless about the big picture of the Kanto region electrical grid.

"Rolling blackouts unlikely to end soon."

I read somewhere that TEPCO lost almost as much capacity in thermal (burning stuff) power plants to tsunami/earthquake damage as they did to nuclear reactors going offline. This article describes this problem somewhat: "Some Coal-Fired Plants Brought Back Online." and if you want to see TEPCO's own press release, this is one they put out a few days ago about the status of all their power stations http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp...1032608-e.html
Fukushima I and II are about 9 GW of output out of TEPCO's 52GW maximum capacity prior to the earthquake, and at least right after the earthquake they had around 9 GW of non nuclear power plants out of operation too IIRC.

I recall reading somewhere that other power companies are seeing trouble restarting shut down reactors and transporting fuel to operating nuclear reactors because they are going over their own safety response training, or because there has been some opposition from communities or local government. It's a real pain in the ass to find these articles after the workers stepping in highly radioactive puddles clogged the newsstreams.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Eventually there will have to be more fission plants going on line, one way or another.

Rolling blackouts is not what a first-world nation would be able to sustain long term. To have a reliable electric supply is more important than even oil.

Anti-nuclear people can complain all they like, but the electrons must flow.

[Haak]

This guy is awesome:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12860842

[Tri-ring]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Eventually there will have to be more fission plants going on line, one way or another.

Rolling blackouts is not what a first-world nation would be able to sustain long term. To have a reliable electric supply is more important than even oil.

Anti-nuclear people can complain all they like, but the electrons must flow.

There are other routes although TEPCO and/or other electric power companies would not like it.
Tokyo Gas has developed a household micro fuel cell cogeneration system called Enefarm(link only in Japanese) that generates heat and electricity to power your home. The excess electricity can be fed back into the grid.
If this is introduced more widely(30~50% of all households) then the electricity shortage can become a thing of the past without constructing new atomic power plants.
This can be achieved if Tokyo Gas and TEPCO merge to become an integrated energy company which mission is to oversee all of energy usage. This will get rid of turf war and streamline the introduction of the system by providing incentives to homes introducing the system instead of constructing large centralized power plants.

From all this I believe that Japan will become more energy efficient with newer electronic appliances that are even more power efficient than they are today.

[Jeffry2009]

http://kotaku.com/#!5786242

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Tri-ring

There are other routes although TEPCO and/or other electric power companies would not like it.
Tokyo Gas has developed a household micro fuel cell cogeneration system called Enefarm(link only in Japanese) that generates heat and electricity to power your home. The excess electricity can be fed back into the grid.
If this is introduced more widely(30~50% of all households) then the electricity shortage can become a thing of the past without constructing new atomic power plants.
This can be achieved if Tokyo Gas and TEPCO merge to become an integrated energy company which mission is to oversee all of energy usage. This will get rid of turf war and streamline the introduction of the system by providing incentives to homes introducing the system instead of constructing large centralized power plants.

From all this I believe that Japan will become more energy efficient with newer electronic appliances that are even more power efficient than they are today.

Err... Just to make sure I got it right, the Enefarm is just a mini home power and heat generator that runs on coal-gas.

That's not renewable though. This means you are just burning coal gas at home. And that means as soon as enough people raise demand for coal gas, the price would go up. And eventually supply would exceed demand because Japan doesn't have enough coal to make coal gas that can run the whole country.

You are still stuck with an external powersource. Based on fossil fuels no less. How is that going to be able to supply power in any serious way?

[Tri-ring]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Err... Just to make sure I got it right, the Enefarm is just a mini home power and heat generator that runs on coal-gas.

That's not renewable though. This means you are just burning coal gas at home. And that means as soon as enough people raise demand for coal gas, the price would go up. And eventually supply would exceed demand because Japan doesn't have enough coal to make coal gas that can run the whole country.

You are still stuck with an external powersource. Based on fossil fuels no less. How is that going to be able to supply power in any serious way?

First of all it is not burning fuel it is a fuel cell.
The system is more efficient than centralized power plants because it virtually eliminate power loss through transfer(63% is lost through electricity power lines). It also reduces overall energy consumption per household since 30% of total energy consumption is utilized for heating(water and room) offsetting total power consumption and reducing need for electricity.
Methane gas is also collected from various sources like water reclaiming facilities so source is not completely dependent on fossil fuel.

In the future with development combining the system with photovoltaic cells and fuel cell converted to accept pure hydrogen then it will truly be a system for the future.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Tri-ring

First of all it is not burning fuel it is a fuel cell.
The system is more efficient than centralized power plants because it virtually eliminate power loss through transfer(63% is lost through electricity power lines). It also reduces overall energy consumption per household since 30% of total energy consumption is utilized for heating(water and room) offsetting total power consumption and reducing need for electricity.
Methane gas is also collected from various sources like water reclaiming facilities so source is not completely dependent on fossil fuel.

In the future with development combining the system with photovoltaic cells and fuel cell converted to accept pure hydrogen then it will truly be a system for the future.

Fuel Cells are just more efficient means of oxidation. The result is the same, the benefit is that the power generation is more efficient.
And the amount of sunlight you get in your average Japanese home, consider the scarcity of land, means it is extremely unlikely you can live off them without self-restricting electricity use.

I am quite supportive of things like home solar panels. However, no matter how much power you make in your house, and how much savings you made, it wouldn't be enough unless you seriously cut back total consumption.
Same applies with methane supply.

Japan as a nation is supposedly already extremely energy efficient. And I am sure there are always room for improvement. But that doesn't solve the issue that in the end, you still need more power.


The question is, can you make the amount of electricity generated by a fission powerplant, in a different way, that is still affordable? And can you actually expand that alternative source over time? You can build more nuclear reactors, but there is an upper limit to how many solar panels can fit in your house.

[Tri-ring]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Fuel Cells are just more efficient means of oxidation. The result is the same, the benefit is that the power generation is more efficient.
And the amount of sunlight you get in your average Japanese home, consider the scarcity of land, means it is extremely unlikely you can live off them without self-restricting electricity use.

I am quite supportive of things like home solar panels. However, no matter how much power you make in your house, and how much savings you made, it wouldn't be enough unless you seriously cut back total consumption.
Same applies with methane supply.

Japan as a nation is supposedly already extremely energy efficient. And I am sure there are always room for improvement. But that doesn't solve the issue that in the end, you still need more power.


The question is, can you make the amount of electricity generated by a fission powerplant, in a different way, that is still affordable? And can you actually expand that alternative source over time? You can build more nuclear reactors, but there is an upper limit to how many solar panels can fit in your house.

You still don't get it.
With high household utilization you are taking a huge chunk out from the electric consumption meaning less stress to the grid as a whole which means less need for power plants.
From the link Tokyo Gas promotes that a single Ene-farm unit can generate 1Kw of electricity. As I have posted in my original post if 30~50% of the households were to introduce this system I assume it will be equivalent to constructing couple of Fukushima Dai-ichi atomic power plant.

[Zetsubo]

Originally Posted by Tri-ring

You still don't get it.
With high household utilization you are taking a huge chunk out from the electric consumption meaning less stress to the grid as a whole which means less need for power plants.
From the link Tokyo Gas promotes that a single Ene-farm unit can generate 1Kw of electricity. As I have posted in my original post if 30~50% of the households were to introduce this system I assume it will be equivalent to constructing couple of Fukushima Dai-ichi atomic power plant.

How do you solve the logistics of fuel delivery, system maintenance and safety inspections ?

[Tri-ring]

Originally Posted by Zetsubo

How do you solve the logistics of fuel delivery, system maintenance and safety inspections ?

Natural gas is already delivered to homes through underground pipes and maintenance can be done during the monthly meter inspection.
Fuel cell system has very little moving parts so down time through mechanical failure is greatly reduced.

[Malkuth]

Either ignore Alchemist007 or counter-troll, but please stop stating the obvious

On somewhat relevant news, Fukushima + modern journalism won Greens second place (and their alliance with Social-Democrats first) in the state where Stuttgart is, the second most Conservative state in Germany (after Bayern)

And what the fuck is going on with those shenanigans from TEPCo and IAEA on the radiation monitoring? Now with the focus shifting to Libya, I have a hard time to follow news in Japanese only.

I was wondering in general, does the Japanese government have some public and/or independent organization monitoring the situation, or does it rely on the private company that clearly messed up the accident management? in addition to having all rational (but unethical) interests in covering up

[sneaker]

Originally Posted by Malkuth

On somewhat relevant news, Fukushima + modern journalism won Greens second place (and their alliance with Social-Democrats first) in the state where Stuttgart is, the second most Conservative state in Germany (after Bayern)

Yeah, German journalism is a real pain in the ass. Just read this rant about it and the misbehavior of the German public, helpers and officials. Hope this goes unnoticed in Japan.

[Malkuth]

Originally Posted by sneaker

Yeah, German journalism is a real pain in the ass. Just read this rant about it and the misbehavior of the German public, helpers and officials. Hope this goes unnoticed in Japan.

In between, I'm not German, just living there for some time now, and I can tell you, that journalists suck* in most countries (having in mind in addition Italy, Greece, France, England, and US)... what I found surprising recently was the responsibility that some (not all) Japanese ones showed

* in this context

[Tsuyoshi]

Originally Posted by Malkuth

In between, I'm not German, just living there for some time now, and I can tell you, that journalists suck* in most countries (having in mind in addition Italy, Greece, France, England, and US)... what I found surprising recently was the responsibility that some (not all) Japanese ones showed

* in this context

Italy's pretty horrible when it comes to international news in general. Quite a lot of the news related to Japan was about the nuclear scare and how there was going to be a radioactive cloud that would pass over Europe (and apparently has ) with little concern for the people who really suffered due to the Tsunami.

[Dhomochevsky]

Originally Posted by sneaker

Yeah, German journalism is a real pain in the ass. Just read this rant about it and the misbehavior of the German public, helpers and officials. Hope this goes unnoticed in Japan.

On the other hand you linked to yet another german news site to point this out.
I would not completely believe any german news site on this topic, as this is loaded with so much political tension. Heck the nuclear power debate just handed over power to the green party in one country.
You will not get an unbiased coverage out of any german news site, as they themselves are all biased to one site or the other. "Welt" is on the conservative side in this regard, so this article is exactly what I'd expect from them in this situation. Damage control and all that.
Really hard to get the facts, as everyone seems to have an expert that tells us exactly what they want us to believe.

[Malkuth]

Originally Posted by Dhomochevsky

On the other hand you linked to yet another german news site to point this out.
I would not completely believe any german news site on this topic, as this is loaded with so much political tension. Heck it just handed over power to the green party in one country.
You will not get an unbiased coverage out of any german news site, as they themselves are all biased to one site or the other. "Welt" is on the conservative side in this regard, so this article is exactly what I'd expect from them in this situation. Damage control and all that.
Really hard to get the facts, as everyone seems to have an expert that tells us exactly what they want us to believe.

It's not like germany has any kind of progressive or liberal mainstream media (by greek (not immigrant) standards), just a poser political magazine (named after an english tabloid)

@whoever neg-rep'ed me one page back: Bring what back

[sneaker]

Originally Posted by Dhomochevsky

On the other hand you linked to yet another german news site to point this out.

I know I know - oh, the irony.

I agree that you cannot trust any German news site - nor any other.

Although I would not overestimate the influence of the fukushima incident on the elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate. The impact was only so big because the race was very close to begin with:
http://www.infratest-dimap.de/umfrag...sonntagsfrage/
http://www.infratest-dimap.de/umfrag...sonntagsfrage/

This is yet another misinformation on part of the German media. Just like they announced prime minister Koch lost the Hesse elections because of his "anti immigrant campaign" (that's what the media called it) after a senior was hospitalized by two immigrants in a subway station just for asking them to stop smoking. But if you look at the surveys you can see that he was already losing before the incident.

[Guardian Enzo]

From Japan Times:

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government said its test showed radioactive iodine was undetectable Sunday in water at the Kanamachi purification plant in Katsushika Ward, Tokyo, where water with radiation considered unsafe for infants was found March 22.

Another government survey over the weekend showed that radiation levels in Yamagata Prefecture had returned to normal.

The maximum radiation level in Yamagata was 0.074 microsievert from 5 p.m. Saturday to 9 a.m. Sunday, down from 0.089 observed between Friday and Saturday. A human is exposed to radiation of 50 microsieverts in one chest X-ray.

The maximum radiation level detected in Tokyo, Tochigi and Ibaraki prefectures also continued to fall.