2010-01-17, 12:50 | Link #2241 |
Junior Member
Join Date: Dec 2009
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Since it wasn't told or foreshadowed or given hints on, doesn't the fact that Erika sealed the rooms/windows violate Knox's 8? Also, the fact that she used duct tape should also violate Knox's 8. I mean, it just feels so cheap, you trying to hard to figure it out, then at the end, BOOM!
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2010-01-17, 12:54 | Link #2242 |
阿賀野型3番艦、矢矧 Lv180
Graphic Designer
Moderator Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Belgium, Brussels
Age: 38
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Actually, that's incorrect.
First, it is "quite obvious" that you can expect people dying when such inheritance is at stake. Everyone knows about the typhoon to boot, so it makes the whole murder scheme even more plausible than anything else. Furthermore, seals are NOT the detective conclusions: these are actually in range of "clues", or more precisely: evidences. By this definition, they actually help Erika to avoid Knox 8th. If you meant about 6th, like I explained above, you don't need to have "mere intuition" to figure that possibility. In fact, it is very likely that Erika was certain something would have happened, and claimed she "just had a hunch". The seals and the other elements are evidence that were used to "solve" the said case. These aren't the conclusion that popped out of nowhere. Knox 8th forbids that "you are the culprit!" declaration can be announced without clues. And these clues are the seals and other ridiciulous detective methods Erika used.
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2010-01-17, 12:55 | Link #2243 | |
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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It looks like knox rules only works in Erika's favor.
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Let's say it's true, the point is that the most guarded room was the cousin's room one of like 100+ possible murder scenes, and that conveniently happened to be the crime scene
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2010-01-17, 12:58 | Link #2244 | ||
阿賀野型3番艦、矢矧 Lv180
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Moderator Join Date: Mar 2006
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That was basically the same as the red truth for Beato and Battler back in Episode 2, but that changed quickly during the said episode.
Likewise, the knox rules were a big hinderance for Battler, but it became a force of reckoning afterwards. Quote:
We are talking about a piece that knows the setup, thanks to a witch. If she were one of the original pieces, it is also natural to think that "expecting a murder" wouldn't be as obvious or instantaneous afterwards. That is to say, I really can't see how it isn't predictable. Quote:
Conveniently? I personally don't even want to debate about this, considering the circumstances (like Battler being the man of the show after all the crap during that day). We know that "nothing happened there", but that is to say, it isn't like you can start expecting another room for such instance. Not in term of predictable thing (that and the possibility that Erika was just pretending, in order to show off, cornering a false culprit). I personally wish if you could at least bring your points, instead of implying derision (I mean, it is the same as when you were ridiculing me about Erika being washed ashore, despite there was nothing that was against this possibility, nor the fact that the story never implied she swimmed and so forth). In a way, I think Erika's existence shouldn't be taken as literally as if she was one of the original characters, but a stretch of "possible events, even if they would normally not have taken place in usual circumstances".
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2010-01-17, 13:11 | Link #2245 | ||
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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If you agree with the fiction theory then there's no problem. Quote:
My point is being helped by luck is not allowed by knox rules. Erika's reasoning was about Battler being a most probable target of a homicide, and for some reasons she thought the cousin's room would be the most probable place where he would be killed. However Battler wasn't killed, Battler wasn't the target at all, and yet the cousin's room really happened to be the crime scene. Getting to the right spot because of a completely wrong reasoning is what I expect from the pink panther not a real detective. In other words this is just mere luck.
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2010-01-17, 13:15 | Link #2246 |
French Maid
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Poitiers; France
Age: 32
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I agree with Klash on this point.
We are not talking about some millions: We are talking about 20 Billion Yen, plus the headship of the Ushiromyia Family, which was disputed since long ago. To compare, it is comparable to the inheritance of Alexander: There was more than a small chance that it would be scathered. yeah it was, I remember you that Battler was the new head, the one who has the most chances to be targeted if you think about interrest. |
2010-01-17, 13:19 | Link #2247 | |
French Maid
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Poitiers; France
Age: 32
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Even if one of them would like to kill him, they couldn't because they would be prevented for doing so by the others. Actually, when you think about it, what is strange is that the adults let him go without anyone accompanying him. And if he was killed there, the culprits would be obvious. |
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2010-01-17, 13:20 | Link #2248 | |
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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how many people here would kill their whole family for ten tons of gold? And among them how many would do that in a secluded island where they'd have a lot of trouble proving they have an alibi or that it was some stranger? Wait let me rephrase. How many would kill because they wouldn't be satisfied with just 12.5% of ten tons of gold?
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2010-01-17, 13:25 | Link #2249 | |
French Maid
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Poitiers; France
Age: 32
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Actually, I hated the conclusion of the Ferry scene in the Dark Knight because of course if people had to choose, they would blow up for sure the other boat, moreover if the other only contain prisonner. The adult would lost everything they have done for years, all their plan would be gone: Krauss couldn't repay his debts, so the others. People do not kill for money? 1/3 of the crimes, if not 1/2 are commited with this as the mobile. People kill for 500$ in a convini. |
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2010-01-17, 13:34 | Link #2250 |
Junior Member
Join Date: Dec 2009
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This is the way I am looking at it:
Erika sealing the rooms and windows is a CLUE. As is using the duct tape. These two are CLUES. These CLUES were not presented during the story. Knox's 8 states: It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with CLUES that are not presented. Hence, the case cannot be resolved with those CLUES.
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2010-01-17, 13:41 | Link #2251 | |
French Maid
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Poitiers; France
Age: 32
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2010-01-17, 13:48 | Link #2253 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: HK, China
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Erika predicted the occurance of murder not because of her hunch, it was because of her EXPERIENCE.
Whenever she travelled everywhere and then a murder would happen. She came to an island, isolated because of the typhoon, and there was an extremely wealthy family living there (well not so wealthy anymore), and they were talking about inheritance. And just that Battler was chosen to be the next head but someone opposed. If I was Erika and had her experience, I would predict some murder must happen that night and the highest probability of victim went to our Battler.
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2010-01-17, 13:51 | Link #2254 | ||||
阿賀野型3番艦、矢矧 Lv180
Graphic Designer
Moderator Join Date: Mar 2006
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Do people usually steal for the heck of it? No they usually steal in order to substain themselves, or some deviant reasons (impulsive kleptoman etc). No matter how taboo murder is, if your existence or very reason of life is threatened, anyone can kill. (That's the general idea I have, not exactly for Umineko) Quote:
But as readers, we know that it is nlikely the culprit is doing that for the gold. Quote:
If you want my opinion, there is also a factor of irrationality: why would Krauss and Natsuhi be so opposed to Battler's headship, for example? Krauss could simply accept, pay back the debt before handing stuff to Battler, thus being left "innocent". Yet, He jumped on the gun like Natsuhi, claiming there was no clause regarding the headship with the riddle gold. So you can also factor plain human stupidity or mistake. Quote:
Furthermore, the rule would "prevent that conclusion to be valid" unless clues are presented. And this is what Erika did: she presented her clues to the court. Furthermore, there was some foreshadowing points: Erika being late to the whole thing, some instances were she was wandering around. And also at some point, Kanon and Kumasawa noticing some duct tape on Genji's room door.
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2010-01-17, 13:51 | Link #2255 |
French Maid
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Poitiers; France
Age: 32
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I think this part was more a pinch to Battler, because of the stereotype on Detective.
It is well known, if there is a detective, there is always a crime (I think it was a direct reference to Detective Conan as well^^) |
2010-01-17, 14:32 | Link #2256 | |||||
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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Just for the record on a sample of 100 random people how many do you think would kill for money? Let's say you answer 1 which is incredibly ridiculous that would still be a 0,18% chance in a sample of 18 persons, how is that obvious? Quote:
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The chance of a person that would kill for money in a sample of 18 people doesn't even reach the 0,001%. To act on the basis of such a slim probability is absolutely preposterous. Quote:
No, I'm very positive that the clues need to be presented before the trial. That would be absolutely futile if it wasn't so.
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2010-01-17, 14:43 | Link #2257 | ||||
阿賀野型3番艦、矢矧 Lv180
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Furthermore, as readers, we know that the murder motive(s) is really very obscure, so trying to probe it with such theorycraft doesn't help at all, especially we are discussing about the possible reason of a "murder speculation" from a fictional detective. Quote:
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I mean, let's take higurashi for example: what was then the probability for the culprit to be avenging their family about a thesis about a virus? Quote:
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2010-01-17, 14:51 | Link #2258 | |
French Maid
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Poitiers; France
Age: 32
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We are talking about a woman who would give all she got in order to protect her family honor (Natsuhi). About a women we know she is capable of killing in order to keep everything for her (Eva in Ep3). We are talking about businessman and women who are not only gaining money for themselve but also in th best case for their employees which they are responsible of, and we know how this value is important in Japan! Businessman which like Krauss made unorthodoxical things to gain money and would be in great trouble, sometime risking more prison than for a murder. You say that people "would say" that they wouldn't kill for money, but of course, people will not say, "I would kill someone" for any reason. And even if we trust trust them, the chances are slim but they still exist, and this is enough for a girl which could only be playing detective. Ninja Klash^^ |
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2010-01-17, 15:01 | Link #2259 | |
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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Now you ask for numbers, I'll give you numbers http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder search for japan. In Japan there is only 1 murder over 200.000 persons per year. Since the family meetings happens only once time per year I can agree that the 4 october represents this 1 per year chance of a murder occurring. this basically means that on a randomly selected sample of 100 japanese people you'd have a 0.0005% of probability to get one that committed a murder that year. On 18 people that would become 0.00009% this is how much probable this would be in a realistic case scenario. Of course now you can abandon the "it is obvious that people would kill for 20 tons of gold" and pass to a more logic "it was very probable that Natsuhi or Krauss would try to kill Battler considering their personalities and the situation". This is a completely different matter. EDIT for anthera. The answer I gave to Klash work for you as well. but more specifically I'm not talking about what people would say I'm talking about real statistical facts. The probability that people would kill is incredibly low despite popular belief warped by movies and the news. Of course the probability that people would kill for money is even lower. Half the amount according to you.
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2010-01-17, 15:11 | Link #2260 |
French Maid
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Poitiers; France
Age: 32
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You can give all number you can, you can't deny that this case cannot apply to any statistic.
If we consider the "real world" POV, then Erika is a mystery maniac. An isolated island, business man and servants, an incredible amount of gold... The fact that this is a "Real World" point of view doesn't mean that Erika cannot be a "Mystery Novel" POV, after all, even if she is well-behaved, she's still a middle-schooler |
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