2011-09-26, 19:29 | Link #24621 | |||
Dea ex Kakera
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
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Almost certainly false. While she was on the phone, Natsuhi stated that the current time was 12:07am.
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This kind of argument came out for the EP4 calls from Kyrie and Jessica as well, and it didn't make any sense then either. Maybe people just don't understand how a circa-1980 analog tape recorder works? Even supposing the caller could magically predict the future and know what kinds of things the other person might say, navigating the voice clips fluidly would be impossible. Quote:
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None of the people in the dining room left the dining room until 1am. Furthermore, no one besides Krauss, Natsuhi, Genji, and the people in the dining room existed in the mansion at midnight, and it was impossible for anyone else to enter the mansion after midnight. Genji went directly back to the waiting room after informing Natsuhi of the phone call. Who are you saying attacked him?
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2011-09-26, 19:43 | Link #24622 |
Dea ex Kakera
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
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Here's another relevant question: is there any evidence that a phone exists in the dining room?
EDIT: Okay, yes, there is a phone in there. Rosa uses it to call the servants' room in EP3.
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Last edited by LyricalAura; 2011-09-26 at 20:15. |
2011-09-26, 20:17 | Link #24623 | ||||
The True Culprit
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2011-09-26, 20:18 | Link #24624 | |||||||
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
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At 24:00 in the guesthouse, George, Jessica, and Maria were alive and in the second floor cousins' room. Nanjo, Gohda, and Kumasawa were on the first floor. Natsuhi, Krauss, and Genji were still in a corridor on the second floor of the mansion. All the remaining people were at the family conference in the dining hall. Of course, at that point in time, no murder had occurred. Genji was also alive. Ergo, unless Genji is lying, there was a call when Krauss still wasn't in the dining room. Natsuhi left him in the corridor and picked up the receiver short after. I don't know how exactly the Ushiromiya house is done but at best Krauss might have reached the sibling while they were in the middle of the call, not at the beginning of it. This if he didn't stop to talk with Genji but immediately went back to the dining room. Quote:
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That's why I know it's possible but I deem hard to manage to keep up such a long conversation and to perfectly respect the times so that kanon and Gohda would show up at the right point. Quote:
Of course it might be that the 3 phone calls were done by just a person that's not Yasu but then how this person did found out about Natsuhi's baby? The only ones aware of it should be Natsuhi, Krauss, Genji, Nanjo and Kumasawa (Kinzo too but he's dead so he doesn't count...) and they're all apparently on Natsuhi's side. Are there clues there's someone else who knows? [I'm curious if there are because I've been searching them but I couldn't find them.] Why should Krauss make the phone calls? Genji, Kumasawa and Nanjo might be acting due to Yasu's request but still I've hard time beliving that's the case. Quote:
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She has no reason to think they were lying. Quote:
They can't really go to the police to have their little gold problem solved and they can't really prove Kinzo is dead without going to the police. Warning the police about Kinzo's disappearance might cause the police to discover the gold and they would be back to square 1. So they need Krauss to be more compliant. Or his wife for the matter. Though evidently the plan of scarying Krauss and Natsuhi was hijacked by someone who started killing people instead than letting them merely fake their dead. |
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2011-09-26, 21:06 | Link #24625 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2010
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Example at the very start of Jessica's conversation she goes " Hehehe...they...got me" Battler would immediately know she's hurt, and knowing his personality they can construct a response to his most likely answer. Which will be most likely be "Are you hurt?!","Where are you!? and/or "Ill come help!" She ignores Battler trough most of the call again till this moment " I...Wonder if your test will be the same as ours...be careful...... and dont get the wrong idea." Talking about the test and getting the wrong idea will most certainly lead to a response like " Wrong idea about what?! The test?! " It relies on chance, but you can coax replies rather easily if you are controlling the conversation and you know the person you are talking to. Last edited by Cao Ni Ma; 2011-09-26 at 21:22. |
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2011-09-26, 21:43 | Link #24626 | ||
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
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I noticed that how the other siblings basically co-operated as a couple. Eva and Hideyoshi, Kyrie and Rudolf. Rosa and... um.... herself. But with Krauss and Natsuhi they never really seemed to co-operate. It's as if they had their own two factions. Quote:
I wasn't going to admit it, but I swear EP8 Kinzo seemed the most realistic to me too. 8) I mean, what kind of grandparent wouldn't love to spoil their grandkids? Especially one loaded with money... |
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2011-09-26, 21:47 | Link #24627 | ||||
The True Culprit
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Either way, the narrative is that someone is trying to kill her right then, so there's no way to make it look realistic without her saying "stfu I need to talk." Quote:
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2011-09-26, 21:58 | Link #24628 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2010
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Yeah, the Kyrie convo is definitely harder to pull out but I still sensed manipulation in it. Things like asking for George and Jessica is easy enough, the person playing the tapes knew he heard the Jessica one first and Jessica clearly told Battler. There is no reason for Battler to lie to Kyrie in this situation.
The hardest part would have been the moment she went something like "Run where?" But even that was set up so it could be replied by something like "Get away from there!" "Move!" "Hide!" "Run!" It could all far apart of course, If Battler was some sort of super detective that couldn't be deceived he might willfully lie in the conversation to see Kyrie's response. Something like "Dont Worry Kyrie, Jessica and George are fine" then the conversation would go "With me that makes 13" and Battler would certainly figure it out. Another issue with the call, Maria knew some of the conversation. Specifically that Kyrie told him to believe in the Witch. I guess she's smart enough to infer what the conversation was about despite the little Battler contribute to. e- Its actually much easier than I remembered. The phone starts with her responding with "Battler" and him talking back. This isnt hard to predict, if you just finished the call with Jessica you'll know Battler will be by the phone answering this one as well. She then says "Its aim is getting more and more accurate. Looks like It'll go right between my eyes next" This creates a sense of panic, its easy to see Battler responding with "Get away from there!" "Move!" "Hide!" or "Run!". Her response is "Where to?" The next part is Kyrie saying the George/Jessica thing which I already answered. The part after that is "There...Is only one thing... I can advice you on" Theres very few ways you can respond to this, basically "Yes?" "What is it Kyrie?" . The next part is just Kyrie telling him to believe in the fantasies. Knowing Battler you'll have a pretty good idea that he'll go "I dont believe that Kyrie" "Thats a lie" "That doesnt make sense" that happens twice in succession. The next time Battler responds is to this "Ah!" after telling him that she wouldn't survive the next shot its pretty clear that he'll scream "Kyrie! Are you alright!?". Last edited by Cao Ni Ma; 2011-09-27 at 06:29. |
2011-09-26, 22:08 | Link #24629 | |||
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
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#2 is what I believe happened, though I have no opinion on the finances. Rather than guarantee non-investigation, it could be merely that Yasu promised him money in return for co-operation. Anyways, Yasu was the recognized solver of Kinzo's epitaph by GENSAWAJO. Even if he did try to solve it it's not like he gets anything for coming in second. In addition, it was shown that no one else really bothered challenging the Epitaph anymore seriously. Not until Beatrice sent the letter again. Quote:
Either way, it's kinda useless to ask, "Hey, why didn't this happen?" or "If it goes the way you said, it should've happened like this!" It's best to look at the clues from the story and compile the theory from them. If the story mentions the hotel, or a island survey or just that Krauss knew about the gold, then there is some indication that Krauss really knew more than the other siblings. Basically it's not like coming up with an alternate scenario can really allow us to dismiss what was presented in the story. If we could, then when Yasu inherited the gold she should've left the island and retired somewhere only to write obscure mystery fan fiction and possibly save Battler from... wait.. nevermind. 8) |
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2011-09-26, 22:52 | Link #24630 | ||||||||
Goat
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
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Wow. The board is quite active today.
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It's also a very simple answer, which I like. The logistics of getting people to behave in a certain precise way (specifically Kyrie and Jessica making their respective phone calls) that matches a pre-concieved crime-scene are exceedingly complicated. Fake voices really makes things much, much simpler, because it means that the murders could have in fact happened before the phone calls, and it's actually the fantasy story being made to match murders that already happened. Yeah. The more I think about it, the more obvious it is. What else could "Silent corpses, adorned with fiction" even mean other than "They were already dead before their fictional story was told"? The only question that remains is whether they were impersonated voices or pre-recorded voices (and I strongly lean towards the former). I think killing Jessica would. Beatrice can cheat such that Kanon and Shannon can die and revive at her whim as long as their respective love-interest is alive. Quote:
Ikuko: As thanks for the considerable time you have given to me, .........I will someday write your tale. Ange: Am I going to appear in another of your forgeries? ...I hope you kill me in a slightly better way this time. Ikuko: ......Do you...like miracles? Ange: Are you talking about opportunism? ......I used to hate it, but recently I've become a big fan. Still, I'm picky about what I'll accept, and falling from a skyscraper and ending up unharmed isn't what I'd call a miracle. Ikuko: Then, one day, perhaps, I will write you a tale that you consider a miracle...... Actually thinking about it it's pretty neat that Ange complains about being burgered to Featherine, but complains about being killed on Rokkenjima to Hachijou. Quote:
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Yasu had already retired and become Ikuko long before the incident; she wasn't even on the island when it happened. |
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2011-09-26, 23:29 | Link #24632 |
Dea ex Kakera
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
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Here's a hypothetical question, which maybe speaks to mystery construction in general. Is it cheating if she could potentially do it according to her rules, but she never actually does it in a story because it would make reasoning too difficult?
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2011-09-27, 00:02 | Link #24633 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Feb 2010
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Majorly off-topic, but I found this and couldn't bear to let it stay overlooked.
Umineko Mental Health Hotline http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nA4qHo8SR1w It's pretty funny.
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2011-09-27, 00:13 | Link #24634 | |
BUY MY BOOK!!!
Join Date: May 2009
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But I'd still argue that yes, it is cheating because it's not really a rule at all. "I can do whatever I want and undermine the validity of another mechanic introduced in the story" is basically the absence of appreciable rules. That and the vast unintended consequences of it, which have been touched upon at various times.
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2011-09-27, 05:30 | Link #24636 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2010
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Battler never once mentioned that their voices sounded different. Second, we personally have never heard Kyrie or Jessica so for all we know Jessica has a shrill squeaky voice and Kyrie has a deep seductive voice. So whoever did the mimicry must be a master at it! Third, any case of voice alteration came in the form of just hiding your voice which is completely different than imitating somebodies. I'd be ok with this theory if there where some concrete evidence of it, right now its in the realm of devils proof. Basically, "Prove to me that Kyrie or anyone else couldn't have done this" because for all I know their voices could very similar. The phone could be totally shitty. Battler could be tricked easily. e- Also, If Yasu was such a masterful voice actress/mimic then she didn't need to record Maria singing at one point. She could have just acted her out. Last edited by Cao Ni Ma; 2011-09-27 at 07:29. |
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2011-09-27, 08:21 | Link #24639 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2010
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Thats my point, I edited my previous post with more information and I deconstructed the scene. Its very plausible to make it, but there is still some doubt. I'd think the hardest part to predict now was the "second believe" segment. The one that she goes "Probably" at the start, but its still very vague and could worked with Battler saying anything like "really?" "Thats not possible" "You expect me to believe this?"
I personally like the idea because you can get the people to actually say this as part of the game to trick and have fun with Battler. The culprit then carries out the crimes according to the original design. e- Renall, what it gets you is some leeway to carry out the scenes. Having the coordination to hold up 2 people in 2 different areas to coerce them to say lies has a chance of not going the way you expect. Kyrie and Jessica both felt like they where going to die, so its easy to think "This bastard is going to kill me!" and tell Battler, "Its X, Run!" Also, for the most part, I dont like the idea of duress being used. That and dragging corpses around. Its easier to move people when they themselves do it for you, its easier to set up a party in a church when everyone pitches in, its easier for people to lie if they think its a joke. Last edited by Cao Ni Ma; 2011-09-27 at 08:37. |
2011-09-27, 09:52 | Link #24640 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
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Since Jessica is in her own house, once she calm down she can find her way. Sure, she'll likely stumble and knock on doors and will have to walk slowly but she 's the one with the best chances to make it among the survivors. Nanjo and Eva, although regular guests, would have a much harder time. As for Battler he would probably be completely lost. Jessica instead, once she calm down, would remember were things are and manage to move around. That's why Kanon's calming presence (or her persuading herself Kanon's spirit is with her) would be important for her to move around. She needs to calm down to move in the dark. Also as said before, the thing wouldn't be smooth but EP 5 showed Battler smoothly jumping down a window... to later admit his jump actually wasn't that smooth. Kanon carried her to a place in which she was used to hide or so she said so, even if left on her own devices, she could have thought up by herself to hide there. However, on the other side, I like the idea of Yasu faking being Kanon to drag Jessica away for his own ends as it was one of my first theories... so I think I'll keep on thinking it over some more. |
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