[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[Wanderer]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Anyway I don't think we should really overthink that, he might have wrote that at the moment, but he might have had a completely different approach for Umineko. In Keia's interview he basically said that there's only one possible solution.

I dunno. He did say clearly that there is a single answer, but he also said that he presented it in such a way that there is space for different interpretations. He contradicts himself both in his works and in real life.

-------------

I think that Fictional-Yasu's motive has been very clearly exposed as love-insanity. Episode 7 is it; there's really nothing "deeper" to find about it.

Didn't RK07 say the mystery was over with episode 7? I mean we got Fictional-Yasu's woe-is-me motive and Will's deconstruction of most of the "how"dunnits. Umineko really is at least partially answered. The biggest questions that remain are about R-Prime.

And regarding those, I still think that Yasu is innocent, that Ikuko is Yasu, and that the bottle-stories were written after the incident.

[Kylon99]

Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma

Later Rosa shoots Battler in the face, takes Maria outside and starts to go insane calling out Beatrice, telling her that she completed her side of the deal. Nobody responds and Rosa says something like "So this is how it is... You've betrayed me as well...Maria run , run and dont stop " and then ends with a big "BEATORIIICHIIIEEEEE!"

This ending is very plausible, I would say. Rosa and Eva as keys would definitely get suspicious of Battler, I guess. Kyrie wouldn't if she realized he was her son and Natsuhi seems to be too naive in Yasu's view. Of course that's why we all love her... 8)

Originally Posted by Wanderer

Didn't RK07 say the mystery was over with episode 7? I mean we got Fictional-Yasu's woe-is-me motive and Will's deconstruction of most of the "how"dunnits. Umineko really is at least partially answered. The biggest questions that remain are about R-Prime.

To clarify what I think you're saying: I think Ryukishi meant that the generation of mysteries was over as of EP7. If you look at EP8, it didn't really dig up any new mysteries about the story for you to try and solve. There was a puzzle but the solution was right there anyways.

I'm thinking this because in his interviews he still talks about wanting to protect something; and that there are still lines of questioning where he doesn't want to answer yet. Mostly to do with Yasu, I think? This is in the March interview that Lyrical is still translating, I believe. Unless I missed the posting... 8)

So there's still some stuff left over, as you say.

[Thanatos of Crows]

What happened in Rokkenjima Prime was never meant to be revealed in the story, I think. This, however, does not mean the story can't also be played as a mystery. This very thread should be a clear indicator of that. We got the love story Ryukishi intended to tell and seven episodes worth of mysteries which can all be solved with the knowledge Battler acquired before becoming a sorcerer. The mystery was to be solvable based on the first four episodes, remember? I understand you people feel cheated but this continued discussion has misdirected people a lot and calling Ryukishi a bad writer based on your weekly changing interpretations. As stated some time ago, I'd like to hear some theories and interpretations on the series.

I'm sorry for the rant. I just felt people were getting stuck on saying Ryukihi's stupid so there's no reason to reason, as the writer is just a stupid cheat. Gather yourselves

[Cao Ni Ma]

We've already gone trough that and we basically feel that if thats the case then RK07 is just a lazy writer. There's no reason to not create an adequate and satisfying interpretation of prime, if he isn''t capable its more likely that he's just a lazy writer, which would put him in the category of "bad" in my book.

We've already reached the point of getting "stuck" with our current theories, we just cant come up with more with the current information. We can wait till comiket and get a copy of Our Confession or wait till Lyrical finishes his translation of the last interview so we can have more to work with. If you want to read the other theories you can always jump 200 pages back and work yourself up.

[jjblue1]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Yeah that one is also interesting, because it tells that he sees the game between the author and the reader not as a fight where the latter tries to understand the plot conceived by the former, but where both compete to find the better explanation to the mysteries. This is completely different from what Van Dine wrote in his essay.

However "better" here is quite arbitrary. How do you define "better"?

Anyway I don't think we should really overthink that, he might have wrote that at the moment, but he might have had a completely different approach for Umineko. In Keia's interview he basically said that there's only one possible solution.

I think the duel in Higurashi is a playful one whose answer is totally subjective and in which the challenge can be read more as an 'Are you satisfied with the ending I created or did you come up with one that FOR YOU would have looked better?'.

In might seems a pretty meaningless challenge if it wasn't for the fact there's people who say 'I'm not satisfied with the ending you created but I couldn't come up with anything better'. Challenging readers in this way people who couldn't come up with anything better can't really complain.

Also if Higurashi's novel ending is the same as the anime... well, in my opinion the reader can come up with everything. Ryukishi's solution included making Hanyu part of the group and allowing her to use magic powers to stop Takano's bullet... or so it looked. Plus later we see Takano's past was changed so that her parents didn't die in the incident.

If doing this is allowed... then everything can be allowed.

The problem with Umineko is that the setting seems to be much more strict.
Ange goes back in time? Cool but she can't stop the tragedy or influence it in any way.
Magic is used? Cool but it's actually all a trick.
New characters are added? Also cool but it's all a lie. In truth those guys never went on Rokenjima and never influenced anything.

Umineko denies any chance at reaching a good ending that includes 'The Rokkenjima tragedy never took place'.
The best we can get is 'someone survived to it' and 'Ange dealed with the tragedy in a way that didn't lead her to die or to kill people'.

In short, if there's a duel between the writer and the reader, it's not a duel about who can think at the better ending but if either the reader can figure out what lead the characters to such ending or can't.
Due to this we have a single answer that, due to lack of details can be interpretated in different ways, sort of like saying that:

Single answer: the culprit is X
Different interpretations: he did it for this reason or this other or this other.

Or there could have been something else that will be subjected to different interpetation that's not the reason.

[jjblue1]

I generally don't think of George as the main possible culprit.
At best I think he might have had a scuffle with Battler... however I saw some pics of Cross that made me suspect there could be something more in him.

One was the pic with him and the money someone showed in the forum (I can't remember if in this discussion thread or in the one for Ougon), the other has him sitting on a throne like chair and it's on the main page of the Cross game.

They seem to imply George has a craving for money and power... when in the visual novel he looked like he was ready to give up everything and try to rebuilt his life on his own for Shannon...

Of course I could only see the pics out of contest so maybe I'm mistaken but... anyone has thoughts about this?

Is George deep down greedy and ambitious?
Has he found out that Shannon is the real heir to Kinzo and wants to marry her just for this?
Did he murder someone on Rokkenjima Prime and Eva took the blame to cover up her son's sin?

[Cao Ni Ma]

George has been like that since X, the xbox game. I still havent seen any of his endings though so I cant really comment if it plays into it or if its just a joke by the developers.

And there was a point where he was misogynistic egotistical bastard but we dont really see it in the novel. He just kinda explains it that he used to be like that before he met Shannon.Whether or not he's still like that and is just using Shannon for gain is up to our interpretation. Either way he does have a tendency of getting shot in the face in the stories, then again this could be said of all the characters

[jjblue1]

Originally Posted by Wanderer

Exactly. Fictional culprit-Yasu is fully aware that she's only killing fictional people; to her it's not even murder. So even within the context of the fictions it still comes down to: Why is she writing about killing her friends and even that guy Gohda?. And that's the "heart" of the murderer that Will was seeking.

Although your explanation is logical (and makes it look like Umineko is a huge RPG in which Shannon and Kannon picked up the mission that says 'kill a bunch of people and then yourself') then it implies Yasu is writing stories in which the culprit kills for no reason at all or for the insane reason that she's playing a game.

You might be right but, if you are, I'm going to be disappointed since I don't find this solution really satisfing... -_-

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Wanderer

I think that Fictional-Yasu's motive has been very clearly exposed as love-insanity. Episode 7 is it; there's really nothing "deeper" to find about it.

Didn't RK07 say the mystery was over with episode 7? I mean we got Fictional-Yasu's woe-is-me motive and Will's deconstruction of most of the "how"dunnits. Umineko really is at least partially answered. The biggest questions that remain are about R-Prime.

And at least to this point we agree. That's not a meta-motive though. The Yasu inside the games feels like she's been on a pinch. She has basically two problems: the first is that she doesn't know who should she\he be with and consequently which of her personalities kill off. The second is that she doesn't know how to explain (primarily to George) about her true self and her physical condition. Incidentally those are problems that the "real" Yasu is facing as well at least to some degree.
Unable to make a final decision she decides to create a "Kinzo-gamble". She creates a situation with a very low probability to give a positive outcome with a huge threat in case of failure as incentive. The system of the "bomb" already existed and she only needed to use that. The improbable positive outcome is supposedly Battler remembering the promise and\or finding the whodunit, whydunit, howdunit of Yasu's serial murder scenario.
Clair's attitude however makes me think that she didn't really believe that such a "miracle" would happen, and if the stories were written before (as I believe) then definitely she didn't believe so, since in at least two of them Battler fails (and I think "Land" is no exception).
The epitaph challenge was probably meant for the adults, to give them a condition to win and adding to herself a condition to lose. Albeit if we can trust EP7 tea party to some degree she planned a secondary trap even in that case, by creating the condition to make them kill each other (that's still her loss though).


So far I think this reconstruction is pretty solid. However a few pages before we were discussing about how very little sympathy we can feel for the Yasu of this scenario. The fact that it's a "fictional Yasu" and not "real Yasu" to me bear little importance. In fact there's no real Yasu in the end, they are both fictionals. I see no reason why should I use different standards to judge them.

Originally Posted by Wanderer

And regarding those, I still think that Yasu is innocent, that Ikuko is Yasu, and that the bottle-stories were written after the incident.

Yes I know. And my opinion is that in Rokkenjima prime Yasu wrote those stories partly as a sketchbook to devise her real scenario she was planning and partly as a way to entertain herself. Throwing them in the sea inside message bottles was also part of her fickle nature.
The final plan involved several accomplices in a fake murder scenario. It had to be fake until the end because 1) she couldn't get many accomplices otherwise. 2) she couldn't really hope in a "good outcome" if she actually killed someone, and the gamble would have been pointless.
I think however that she planned to let the bomb go off in case of failure. So therefore she still planned to kill everyone if worse came to worst (albeit not directly).

Th problem here is that something had to have gone wrong to make the pieces of the puzzle fit.
The first element we have is the head's ring which is said to be in Eva's possession in EP4 and confirmed to be authentic. While it's not impossible that someone pried that ring from Yasu's cold hands, I believe it's very unlikely. Yasu probably never carried that ring with herself and I don't think she would tell where it is so easily. So the easiest explanation is that someone, if not Eva herself, solved the epitaph, causing Yasu to relinquish her head's status as per her plan.

The second important element is the fact that both Battler and Eva survived the explosion. As long as it was Eva alone I could still think she happened to be there by chance, but Battler too makes it too much of a coincidence. So the only explanation is that they knew the bomb was about to explode and they escape to safety.
This has important implications, because Eva wouldn't escape without George and Hideyoshi, and Battler wouldn't escape so easily without his cousins and his parents. Yeah... unless he's the culprit! But I don't really buy that.
Anyway all these facts strongly suggest that people already died before the explosion, which in my opinion isn't something that was supposed to happen according to Yasu's plan.
I also thought about the possibility that Eva and Battler were fooled so much by the fake murder scenario that they thought everyone died while they didn't. But I don't think it's very likely because the fact they knew about the bomb and the fact Eva has the ring shows that Yasu's identity and plan was already exposed. So they'd know about the fake murder plan too.

So some kind of murder happened, probably after the discovery of the gold, probably because of the discovery of the gold. Needless to say it, but Kyrie is a prime suspect here. I just hope the scenario Ryuukishi imagined isn't as retarded as what was shown in EP7 tea party.

The last element we need to consider is Eva's decision to not disclose any information about what happened on those two days.
If the culprit was someone she didn't care about or she even hated, she probably wouldn't have any reason to hide it. Another explanation would be that she decided to protect Ange from a harsh truth (which was more than hinted), however that points directly to Rudolf, Kyrie and Battler.
Her behaviour could be also explained if George and Hideyoshi were involved. To a minor degree in case it was one of her other close relatives, you know, to protect the family name.
It could even work if it was Yasu. Because Eva at that point would probably know enough to realize that Yasu is family as well. Not only that... she'd have to explain all that Kinzo did, and she probably wouldn't want to do that.
Telling to the world that her father was a psycho who prepared a kiloton bomb in the basement and was ready to blow it up any moment is also something that she wouldn't want to tell.

So there are several explanations for her silence in the end. But if we put everything together the Rudolf family murder theory is indeed the most probable. I guess the "goats" aren't so irrational in the end.

[jjblue1]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

So far I think this reconstruction is pretty solid. However a few pages before we were discussing about how very little sympathy we can feel for the Yasu of this scenario. The fact that it's a "fictional Yasu" and not "real Yasu" to me bear little importance. In fact there's no real Yasu in the end, they are both fictionals. I see no reason why should I use different standards to judge them.

Exactly. The only way to feel sympathy for Yasu are:

- loving Yasu to the point you'll forgive her for committing a mass murder (which, I fear, is asking too much to the readers)

- beliving her situation was so dramatic that killing everyone was the only plan that would make sense to her (and we already discussed how that's not the case as she wasn't in a dangerous situation or mistreated so horribly that killing those people was her only way out, etc, etc...)

- not killing anyone but merely planning a game in which people would fake their murder and then see this game going hijacked as someone else started killing people

So if the motive we're given in EP 7 is the one that pushed her to commit murders in fiction or reality or both it draws no sympathy.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Yes I know. And my opinion is that in Rokkenjima prime Yasu wrote those stories partly as a sketchbook to devise her real scenario she was planning and partly as a way to entertain herself. Throwing them in the sea inside message bottles was also part of her fickle nature.
The final plan involved several accomplices in a fake murder scenario. It had to be fake until the end because 1) she couldn't get many accomplices otherwise. 2) she couldn't really hope in a "good outcome" if she actually killed someone, and the gamble would have been pointless.

I agree on this!

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I think however that she planned to let the bomb go off in case of failure. So therefore she still planned to kill everyone if worse came to worst (albeit not directly).

I'm not sure she planned to set off the bomb.
If the bomb works like in EP 7 she should have set it after midnight of the first day but all the games seem to imply the game started prior to it.
I think the bomb was set when the real murders started by someone who thought he would escape from the island, either the culprit or someone who wanted to get rid of the culprit. If that person wasn't the culprit she might have thought he would have the time to save the others or that the others were already dead so there was no one to save.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Th problem here is that something had to have gone wrong to make the pieces of the puzzle fit.
The first element we have is the head's ring which is said to be in Eva's possession in EP4 and confirmed to be authentic. While it's not impossible that someone pried that ring from Yasu's cold hands, I believe it's very unlikely. Yasu probably never carried that ring with herself and I don't think she would tell where it is so easily. So the easiest explanation is that someone, if not Eva herself, solved the epitaph, causing Yasu to relinquish her head's status as per her plan.

Yes, in the reconstruction I posted time ago I also supposed the gold had been found and the leadership passed over along with the ring.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

The second important element is the fact that both Battler and Eva survived the explosion. As long as it was Eva alone I could still think she happened to be there by chance, but Battler too makes it too much of a coincidence. So the only explanation is that they knew the bomb was about to explode and they escape to safety.

I agree on this too.

A thing I pontered about though was that Battler reached the 'exit' by mistake, or so he said. He actually planned to reach Kuwadorian so it's possible he planned to meet Eva (or someone else) there.
However, since he didn't return back and searched for the right path to Kuwadorian either he was escaping and realized there was no more time or someone hit him in the head, caused him to go unconscious and put him on the vehicle that lead him away from Rokkenjima (which would explain how he hadn't started screaming while being on it).

If he planned to go on Kuwadorian we've to wonder if he was merely escaping there or he knew that Eva was there (or believed that someone else was waiting him there). If he wanted to join Eva... why didn't they escape together?
If he wanted to join someone else... who that person was? If he was escaping... either he was the culprit or managed to escape/kill the culprit.

If instead he didn't know about the bom, wanted to go on Kuwadorian and ended in the tunnel by mistake... who hit him on the head?

And if he was escaping... how did he manage to travel on that vehicle while the sea wasn't calm when we all know he tended to panic and scream like a banshee?

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I also thought about the possibility that Eva and Battler were fooled so much by the fake murder scenario that they thought everyone died while they didn't. But I don't think it's very likely because the fact they knew about the bomb and the fact Eva has the ring shows that Yasu's identity and plan was already exposed. So they'd know about the fake murder plan too.

I considered that too in a previous post but I also think it has low chances to be the right scenario... though it would have been dramatically funny if someone set the bomb believing everyone was dead when they were merely playing dead...

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

So some kind of murder happened, probably after the discovery of the gold, probably because of the discovery of the gold. Needless to say it, but Kyrie is a prime suspect here. I just hope the scenario Ryuukishi imagined isn't as retarded as what was shown in EP7 tea party.

My hope is that the scenario we were shown in EP 7 is from Eva's perspective in fact it justifies as incident the murders of Natsuhi and Krauss that happened due to Eva and Hideyoshi's fault but depict Rosa, Kirye and Rudulf as complete villains.

Kirye is the worst (note that she's not related to Eva), Rudolf is bad but got dragged into it by Kirye and he wanted at least to save Battler and Rosa is just a jerk who cares only for her own gain. George's death is highly dramatic while Jessica's pretty fast and the servants are only mentioned in passing. No one notices there's no sign of Shannon or Kanon and we're not told what happened to Battler.

It's possible if the same scenario were to be told from... let's say Kirye's perspective, we would have a less horrible portrait of Kirye and a less good portrait of Eva.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

The last element we need to consider is Eva's decision to not disclose any information about what happened on those two days.
If the culprit was someone she didn't care about or she even hated, she probably wouldn't have any reason to hide it. Another explanation would be that she decided to protect Ange from a harsh truth (which was more than hinted), however that points directly to Rudolf, Kyrie and Battler.
Her behaviour could be also explained if George and Hideyoshi were involved. To a minor degree in case it was one of her other close relatives, you know, to protect the family name.
It could even work if it was Yasu. Because Eva at that point would probably know enough to realize that Yasu is family as well. Not only that... she'd have to explain all that Kinzo did, and she probably wouldn't want to do that.
Telling to the world that her father was a psycho who prepared a megaton bomb in the basement and was ready to blow it up any moment is also something that she wouldn't want to tell.

So there are several explanations for her silence in the end. But if we put everything together the Rudolf family murder theory is indeed the most probable. I guess the "goats" aren't so irrational in the end.

*nods* I agree

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by jjblue1

I'm not sure she planned to set off the bomb.
If the bomb works like in EP 7 she should have set it after midnight of the first day but all the games seem to imply the game started prior to it.

It doesn't make any sense for Yasu to set the bomb on the 4th October. In all the games she wrote, the murders start at the beginning of the 5th, why would she make the island explode before the unfolding of her mystery? She needs to give Battler a chance. Only the 4th game shows murders happening before, but Yasu didn't write that and she never planned that.

Anyway consider that I take in account the letters she sent with the bank account information, as I refuse to believe Ryuukishi went on a great length to explain that if it hadn't any relation to the real world.

Originally Posted by jjblue1

And if he was escaping... how did he manage to travel on that vehicle while the sea wasn't calm when we all know he tended to panic and scream like a banshee?

What do you mean? The sea was calm when he jumped on the boat. It is confirmed that by the 6th the typhoon had already subsided on Rokkenjima and surroundings.

Anyway in the end he really DID fall...

[jjblue1]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

It doesn't make any sense for Yasu to set the bomb on the 4th October. In all the games she wrote, the murders start at the beginning of the 5th, why would she make the island explode before the unfolding of her mystery? She needs to give Battler a chance. Only the 4th game shows murders happening before, but Yasu didn't write that and she never planned that.

Anyway consider that I take in account the letters she sent with the bank account information, as I refuse to believe Ryuukishi went on a great length to explain that if it hadn't any relation to the real world.

If she didn't set the bomb prior to the start of the game someone could have noticed her disappearing in order to set it (also it becomes again murder and not just a murder game who went wrong).

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

What do you mean? The sea was calm when he jumped on the boat. It is confirmed that by the 6th the typhoon had already subsided on Rokkenjima and surroundings.

Anyway in the end he really DID fall...

The bomb should have gone off before the morning of the 6th, or Kuwabata might have been caught up in the explosion since he was going to retrieve the Ushiromiya. Battler should have left before the explosion... early enough to avoid being caught up in the waves that the explosion would generate and so as not being seen by Kuwabata or by anyone else who went to investigate. Note he should have been close enough to the coast so that even if he were to fall from the ship he could be washed ashore before drowing. Also Ep 7 implied the bomb would give off at midnight. This means Battler should have left Rokkenjima during the 5th and reached the coast before people realized what had happened in Rokkenjima.

During the 5th the weather was still bad.

[Cao Ni Ma]

In the late hours of the 5th the storm had already begin to subside. At least thats how I remember it. Rosa's and Maria's chase scene in EP2 was before midnight and it had stopped raining by then right?

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by jjblue1

If she didn't set the bomb prior to the start of the game someone could have noticed her disappearing in order to set it (also it becomes again murder and not just a murder game who went wrong).

I don't see any problem with that. In the first place servants are for the most part outside of anyone's watch. She could also have set the bomb anytime after midnight when most people were sleeping. She wouldn't have "disappeared" anymore than anyone else at around that time.

And yes it becomes murder, but that my whole point. Do not forget however that if what was told was true, Kinzo set the bomb on "on" several times before. If that simple action alone made her a mass murderer then Kinzo has been a mass murderer several times long before her.
There is still the chance that she might have found the urge to turn the trigger off before it was too late despite what she was planning.

Originally Posted by jjblue1

The bomb should have gone off before the morning of the 6th, or Kuwabata might have been caught up in the explosion since he was going to retrieve the Ushiromiya. Battler should have left before the explosion... early enough to avoid being caught up in the waves that the explosion would generate and so as not being seen by Kuwabata or by anyone else who went to investigate. Note he should have been close enough to the coast so that even if he were to fall from the ship he could be washed ashore before drowing. Also Ep 7 implied the bomb would give off at midnight. This means Battler should have left Rokkenjima during the 5th and reached the coast before people realized what had happened in Rokkenjima.

During the 5th the weather was still bad.

No it's all wrong. The scene where you see Battler waking up and then taking the boat happens on the 6th. This was written on clear letters and it was daytime. So it was at least 6 hours after the explosion.

Why do you think Battler had to have left the island before that? Eva didn't either. The explosion didn't engulf the whole island, the Kuwadorian and the submarine base were safe.

also EP8 confirms that the explosion happened exactly at midnight. There might be an error of a few seconds but not minutes.

In the late hours of the 5th the storm had already begin to subside. At least thats how I remember it. Rosa's and Maria's chase scene in EP2 was before midnight and it had stopped raining by then right?

That is also correct as much as we know. In the end if the seagulls are supposed to cry at the dawn of the 6th the typhoon must have been gone for a while.

[haguruma]

Originally Posted by jjblue1

Although your explanation is logical (and makes it look like Umineko is a huge RPG in which Shannon and Kannon picked up the mission that says 'kill a bunch of people and then yourself') then it implies Yasu is writing stories in which the culprit kills for no reason at all or for the insane reason that she's playing a game.

You might be right but, if you are, I'm going to be disappointed since I don't find this solution really satisfing... -_-

Well, actually the games are RPGs if you consider the terminology...even some of the names are references to Online RPGs (like Kyrie). Gamemaster is one of those terms which is taken right from tabletop RPG lingo, though it was transferred to narrative construction in a very popular Japanese theory in the early 2000's but still referring back to it's RPG roots and Ryûkishi could hint at both.

We basically have different characters who have different classes and different strengths. Then we have some overarching roles that can basically be applied to any character at whim based on the authors knowledge of the actuall truth. Those roles are The Detective, The Accomplice, The Culprit, Beatrice and basically also the two "species" of the game "The Wolves" and "The Sheep".
Those roles are placed on the different characters at the start of each game session, but it does not have to be the actuall truth, rather it's a test wether it would make sense if certain characters had accquired those roles and what the consequences are if certain characters had those roles.

The fact that the culprit in case for Kanon-culprit for example is killing without reason reveals that it cannot be a sufficient answer.

Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma

In the late hours of the 5th the storm had already begin to subside. At least thats how I remember it. Rosa's and Maria's chase scene in EP2 was before midnight and it had stopped raining by then right?

This. And the way it was depicted in EP8 it was already morning when Battler entered the boat. It is not unlikely that he had escaped the explosion during the night of the 5th and it took him a while to actually reach the decision to leave. For that we'd have to know the impact of the actual explosion, but the way it is treated in 1998 and considering Ange's reaction (including how it is depcited in the anime and the manga) it was probably an smaller size explosion which made the ground beneath the mansions sorroundings collapse and cave in. It could have taken the mansion right with it, but taking the rest of the area in form of a landslide...considering the explosives were underground, sorrounded probably by at least some form of construction, this is not that impossible.

The problem we encounter is that it would either make Beatrice accompanying Battler completely fictional or we'd have to assume that she (or Yasu for that matter) did not die before or in the explosion.
For me though, Battlers confusion about wether he was accompanied or not at that time stemmed from submerged guilt about the fact that he let Yasu kill herself to hide the crime.

Let's assume the murders or at least some of the events actually continued until the late hours of the 5th. Battler, Yasu or Eva is finally able to stop the culprit(s).
Now they encounter a problem. On the morning of the 6th Kawabata will arrive to pick them up and will definitely want to see the island if only 2 people are at the shore. They have only little time left to set off the bomb so that it destroys the evidence on October 5th and prevents anybody from knowing.
So Yasu, Battler and Eva (in case Battler is the culprit he may be excluded, but I'd doubt that) form a pact which will make Eva the legal guardian of Ange and provide her with the legal rights to Rokkenjima but makes her give up the money that was sent to the relatives. Battler was supposed to accompany her, but something went wrong which Eva blamed herself for (that would explain why Eva "killed " Battler in the end of EP3 if we consider part of that scenario to be her feelings of guilt). Yasu decided to stay on the island and set off the bomb with not enough time to escape the radius, because she was never actually "alive" anyway and wouldn't be missed...instead it would have created more of an impact had she suddenly turned up.

So BATTLER jumping in the ocean in the scene during EP8 could also show what happened to him. That basically Battler tried to commit suicide, knowing that somebody actually killed herself to absolve his family of their sins.

[UsagiTenpura]

There is a reason to do the murders.
Make an interesting "puzzle" to solve.
*shrugs* I know most of you don't like that way of thinking at all, but I'm fairly certain this was Ryuukishi's intent.
No matter what "reason", what "why dunnit" a writer gives to their "culprit" character, ultimately even these reasons exists only to suits the writer's own reasons. I think Umineko was his attempt to make us see beyond "Takano" and into "Ryuukishi's own intents", to use a Higurashi comparison.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by haguruma

Well, actually the games are RPGs if you consider the terminology...even some of the names are references to Online RPGs (like Kyrie). Gamemaster is one of those terms which is taken right from tabletop RPG lingo, though it was transferred to narrative construction in a very popular Japanese theory in the early 2000's but still referring back to it's RPG roots and Ryûkishi could hint at both.

We basically have different characters who have different classes and different strengths. Then we have some overarching roles that can basically be applied to any character at whim based on the authors knowledge of the actuall truth. Those roles are The Detective, The Accomplice, The Culprit, Beatrice and basically also the two "species" of the game "The Wolves" and "The Sheep".
Those roles are placed on the different characters at the start of each game session, but it does not have to be the actuall truth, rather it's a test wether it would make sense if certain characters had accquired those roles and what the consequences are if certain characters had those roles.

The fact that the culprit in case for Kanon-culprit for example is killing without reason reveals that it cannot be a sufficient answer.

That's correct. Usually when you say RPG people think about D&D and a fantasy setting, but there are several kind of RPG in the tabletop universe. Yes there can be detective RPG as well.

But the problem I have with the "meta-movent" interpretation is that, in my opinion, ignores what is a requirement of the game. In cluedo you can only win if you tell who is the culprit, the weapon and the room where the crime occurred. In Umineko you need to tell who is the culprit, how he performed the murder and why. For the game to be fair, all of these must have a human explanation, and metalogic is not a human explanation.

That's why I don't believe it is possible to explain the movent of fictional Yasu that way.

Originally Posted by haguruma

This. And the way it was depicted in EP8 it was already morning when Battler entered the boat. It is not unlikely that he had escaped the explosion during the night of the 5th and it took him a while to actually reach the decision to leave.

I like to believe the explosion caused some lose rock to hit Battler in the head, which in turn caused him to stay asleep for a few hours and then he woke up in a state of totally confusion.

I can hardly explain elseway how he could be so euphoric after that tragedy. Not to mention he was talking to an imaginary Beatrice.

[UsagiTenpura]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

But the problem I have with the "meta-movent" interpretation is that, in my opinion, ignores what is a requirement of the game. In cluedo you can only win if you tell who is the culprit, the weapon and the room where the crime occurred. In Umineko you need to tell who is the culprit, how he performed the murder and why. For the game to be fair, all of these must have a human explanation, and metalogic is not a human explanation.

That's why I don't believe it is possible to explain the movent of fictional Yasu that way.

I think the gameboard is sorta a giant metaphor in itself so any meta motivation has to be somehow "translated" on the gameboard. As far as the gameboard is concerned it should be "standalone" in logic, but that would simply lead to solving a puzzle. To solve the whole story and understand it as it is would be where the metalogic is needed.

Surely you can device a sort of reason as to why Erika on the gameboard would've killed everyone in arc 6, but it doesn't change that the "point of origin" is metalogic.

[Jan-Poo]

It doesn't matter, that could be said of any mystery novel. The culprit of novel X killed victim Y because if he didn't then there wouldn't be an interesting story for the author to narrate.

[UsagiTenpura]

Well that'd be fair if in Umineko the "message bottle and forgeries" authors wouldn't be characters in the story themselves.
But they are.
The reader/writer relationship is true of any given story that has readers (even tho some writers are seemingly entirely unaware of it...).
Usually however it's not the emphasis of most stories.
If you say that it's not an emphasis of Umineko I guess we got 100% different feelings while reading the story so I can't really add to that.