2011-11-21, 15:33 | Link #25822 | |||||||||
Goat
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
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ShKanon, up until its complete confirmation in episode 6, was very easy to find ways to invalidate. Quote:
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Plus 'Touya'=18 and 'Ikuko'=19... that's no accident and, I believe, quite a far cry from "absolutely no comparison to ShKanon". It obviously points at Ikuko=Yasu. Quote:
Spoiler for Higurashi:
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Spoiler for we just need love:
Last edited by Wanderer; 2011-11-21 at 15:55. |
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2011-11-21, 15:57 | Link #25823 | |
BUY MY BOOK!!!
Join Date: May 2009
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The distinction between the sheep and goats in the parable is that, faced with the opportunity to do certain small kindnesses for "the least of my brothers" (i.e. the sick, the imprisoned, etc.), the sheep did those things and the goats did not. Both the sheep and goats of the parable express surprise when the Son of Man equivocates doing or not doing these things with directly doing help or harm to him. The point Jesus is making in the parable, of course, being that doing virtuous things for other human beings is itself glorifying God and failing to do virtuous things is sinful even if the person is not directly acting against God. Okay, so how does this come back on Umineko? Well, if you want my personal opinion it probably doesn't, at least inasmuch as Ryukishi put much thought into it, but if you look at the "goats" of Umineko a prevailing theme of their existence is that they want to be right about theories and speculation and are failing to consider the whole thing where people actually died in their world (as opposed to our own, where R-Prime is a fiction) and treat it with the appropriate degree of respect and upset. We're never shown a "sheep," but one could imagine that a crusader for justice or a person seeking truth for truth's own sake who refuses to impugn the memory of the dead just to be right would qualify. Or even just a person asking that people outside of law enforcement stop with the rampant speculation and allow those tasked with finding the truth to do their job (even though they probably never will). Of course, as I've stressed, I really don't think RK07 put that level of thought into it (else he'd have played up the whole dichotomy). If anything I think the meaning of the goat motif in the story is their omnivorous nature and ability to deconstruct anything to feed themselves. Still, it's an interesting idea to make use of in a fan writing if you were so inclined, just not something I think he really ever intended to be a prevailing theme of the original work.I actually don't have a problem with a (bastardization of) "Death is the great equalizer" as a red statement. It's certainly factually true... once dead, rich man and pauper exist in the same state. Indeed, the Golden Land is a sort of dans macabre in a way. A bit more ghoulish than Beatrice intended, perhaps, but...
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2011-11-21, 16:41 | Link #25824 | |
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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Granted those who believed in shkanon simply by that ended up being correct, but no one in his right mind thought it was conclusive proof, and only a few considered it more than a joke theory. Things changed drastically with EP6 because we had characters quite evidently hinting at shkanon with their own words. And there were a lot of them. I'm talking about entire dialogues, and whole scenes all centered around Shkanon. We don't have that for Ikuko = Yasu. In order to seriously believe it I'd need to see a character whose words or actions or reactions make me think that he knows or believes that Ikuko is Yasu. Spoiler for Higurashi:
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2011-11-21, 16:44 | Link #25825 | ||||
The True Culprit
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Also he has a motive: fat fat fat fat. Quote:
Bur I don't believe Yasu is the murderer, so I don't have to justify that, heehee. Quote:
Also @Yasu!Ikuko theory: Man, fuck logistics. Personally believing that Yasu was innocent, let her have a happy ending. Jeeze. Also, Lyrical's argument is convincing.
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2011-11-21, 16:48 | Link #25826 | |||||||||
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
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In real life I personally don't even care if you've another purpose. It's forbidden, that's the end of it. But we're talking about a fictional story and we're trying to figure out the character of a guy and his intentions and Umineko showed many characters don't act according to the MOST obvious explanation. Kinzo is expecially defined as a weird guy. Yes, I know. Problem is there's a definite truth for him, who knows all the answers but what about us? We don't have a definite truth, just theories. Unless you've way to prove with certain one is exact, you don't have a definite truth in your hands. Quote:
Let's agree we don't know what he would do, okay? Quote:
Have you considered I might have been using the same method as you but merely came to different conclusions and you reject my idea because it doesn't fit your theory or because you don't like it? Quote:
Also, in case you don't remember, the gun thing was an example. I agree she might have done it in the games. I think I already said many times I don't think she did so in Rokkenjima Prime. But weren't we comparing the idea she did so with the idea Kinzo did the same? Quote:
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We can't prove it though. Even assuming he really did play russian roulette (and we can't prove if he did it), we can't know if he did when people was there or if he temporally sent them off the island for his own reasons. In the games Yasu surely set off the bomb. In game 2 & 4 she surely killed herself without stopping the bomb. I tend to assume in R Prime Yasu didn't set the bomb and merely played a murder game, however, if I'm wrong, she set off the bomb with the idea of letting it explode and assuming the people had really low chances to solve the epitaph and stop the murders. She technically believed she was playing Russian Roulette with a six shot gun that had 5 bullets in, in fact she was hoping for a miracle. Hell, from how she describe things she might have been even believing she was playing Russian Roulette with a fully charged gun and the miracle would be that despite pointing it at your head the bullet would miss anyway (which had happen in real life by the way. In some cases trembling hands are your best friend). Quote:
No, I'm assuming Battler couldn't know the cave was a safe place so he couldn't be sure it wouldn't crumble. Since for me dying buried alive would be a worse death than drowning and I see more chances for the tunnel to crumble than for him to drown I would go for the sea. You think risking to drown would be worse and that he has more chances to be safe in the tunnel so you think he would stay there. Truth is it's up to Battler to decide which option would look less risky/scary to him. We don't know what he actually did or could do, we're merely assuming he did this or that because to us it looks more logic. If, for example, he fainted, it wasn't a matter of choices anymore. Quote:
Anyway if he was following a logic that was... well, logic not just to him but to external observers as well, he was acting logically. If he was following a logic that was logic for him only, well he wasn't acting randomly on purpose but, for an external observer, it would be the same as he acting randomly because, since he's not in Battler's mind and can't follow his mind process, he can't find a logic pattern in his actions. Quote:
Now, according to you Battler was capable to decide that staying there was less dangerous than leaving but that after the island exploded he wasn't capable to realize that waiting on the island after the explosion occurred was safer than trying to reach a 'nearby' island on his own, that he wanted to be found but not that getting far from the island would make harder for others to find him. Logically speaking I can see the danger of being on the island BEFORE the explosion, not afterward and one of the basic rules for being found is to stay where others can find you. |
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2011-11-21, 16:58 | Link #25827 | |
Thought Being
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Canada
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This is what I think Ryukishi is building up for Rokkenjima Prime, where if the 'truth' ever came out it would be too heavily colored by whoever is telling it to really be 'true'. This is what seems to have happened in the EP7 Tea Party, if that is Eva's perspective. And the series gives ton of information to support this kind of idea. The illusion of Kinzo makes tension high. Almost everyone on the island is capable of murder, either in defense or for gain. Perhaps no one person had a chance to go on a rampage once shit hit the fan because everyone started fighting and taking sides. And even if we named a 'culprit', how can all the people telling various sorts of lies be not guilty? People involved with the various illusons on the island (Beatrice's game and keeping Kinzo alive being the biggest) are the ones that created the environment for all the adults to be in such high stress. These things are a necessary part of what caused the incident. And this includes Maria in the guilty grouping. I parallel this to Higurashi's Rule Z for what the Sonozaki family did, creating an 'environment' or atmosphere resulting in murder. Under this kind of idea, no one is mastermind guilty. Rather everyone is guilty, so the incident should stay as an 'accident'. And if Ryuukishi tells us what happened in Rokkenjima Prime, then it'll have to be from someone's perspective. And since it can't be unbiased, there is no objective telling of events. It makes complete sense with why Ryuukishi said EP7 was the end of the mystery part of the series. Is this an unsatisfying answer for people?
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2011-11-21, 17:27 | Link #25830 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
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Let's pick EP 7. It says that Eva and Hideyoshi were the first to push the trigger and that killed two people. But we overlook this because we believe it happened by accident as it was told. Now... it's hard to think that EVERYONE died by accident however people might have shot other people believing they were a threat... in fact in EP 2 Rosa wanted to shoot Battler because she believed he was the culprit. My guess is that is possible there's a 'multiple culprit' answer with each culprit acting for a reason he believed 'acceptable' (in short he didn't kill due to greed or hate or cruelty but by mistake, in self defence, believing he was protecting someone, out of paranoia). However I couldn't work up yet a theory that would allow multiple culprits to kill so many people without generating a scenery in which people are shooting randomly at each other... We've to assume only 2, at best 3 people (if you want to assume Shannon survived as well) out of 16 people survived if we want to assume the bomb exploded to cover it and not to kill the survivors. It means 'at best' 13 people were killed. Unless someone had a machine gun or went paranoid and started shooting like a madman it's really hard to find a way to make this fit. For example: Krauss and Natsuhi were killed by mistake by Hideyoshi and Eva like in EP 7. The siblings hid their death but their death cause Rosa to go paranoid. She kills Maria in a fit of rage without meaning to (it's what Battler suggested in EP 3) which doesn't help her to calm down, then begin threatening everyone with a gun (EP 2). Maybe she shot someone (Let's say Gohda, Kumasawa and Nanjo). In fear she'll shot someone else, someone (let's say Kirye) shot her (EP 7 again, only this time there's self defence as motive to kill her). She dies. Meanwhile Krauss and Natsuhi are nowhere to be found. Jessica becomes suspicious of Eva and attacks her (EP 3). George gets in between. Now I'm not sure Jessica can kill George with a fist of hers but George might accidentally kill her with a kick of his. Jessica dies. In shock George runs to Shannon but something goes wrong, he seems crazy and dangerous. Battler gets in between the two have a scuffle and believing he's protecting Battler Rudolf kill George. Hideyoshi comes and kills Rudolf for Killing George. Kirye comes and kill Hideyoshi for killing Rudolf and/or threatening Battler. Eva joins, she'd like to kill everyone else for killing her husband and son but Battler managed to escape. Kirye has no such luck. Genji commits suicide since he believes the Ushiromiya are dead and feels responsible for it. Eva sets the bomb and escape to Kuwadorian. Battler also escaped but, by mistake (or in order to avoid Eva) takes a wrong turn. Everything goes KABOOM. Theoretically a possible scenery (likely with some revision) but, after a while with so many people killing other people by mistake or because they went insane it gets RIDICULE. An evil culprit is probably more depressing and is a story with less love but sounds more rational as explanation. |
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2011-11-21, 17:39 | Link #25831 | ||||||||
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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Think it like the problem of the three boxes in EP8. After only two remains if you use your logic correctly you'll know that the prize has more probabilities to be on the other box and not on the one you chose. You still don't know where the prize is it might be on the box you own. But if you know that the higher probability is in the other, WHY you'd want to stick with the one you chose randomly? Asking me to acknowledge that I don't know the truth is as pointless as asking me to acknowlede that I don't know in which box the prize is, as if the logic that led me to conclude which is more probable didn't mean a thing. Quote:
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Don't you realize that you are playing the part of the witch as soon as you need to resort to "you can't prove it!" to defend your argument? I can't prove you that devils don't exist, but that doesn't change the fact that it's illogic to assume they exist. Try to show faults in my logic, show me why your pov is more logical. Stop talking about proving stuff. Quote:
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No actually in the first place I'm only assuming that he wasn't thinking straight after the explosion already occured and at that time the water was already calm. I never said he wasn't thinking straight before the explosion. Quote:
People in confusional state do reason that way, and they are known for roaming aimlessly.
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2011-11-21, 17:44 | Link #25832 | ||
Mystery buff
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
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But I think we arrive to the same problem as all the other theories. What about GOHDA? Forget intentionally murdering him why would anyone accidentally kill him? Gohda couldn't hurt a fly there's no way he could scare people! Although if you can find a reason for that maybe it'd be more satisfying than 'screw him!'? |
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2011-11-21, 18:16 | Link #25833 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
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In order to kill them you have to: - be paranoic and think that anyone is a threat - think they are accomplices of someone dangerous (you're being a bit more logical in your paranoia as 3 of them were accomplice of Krauss and Natsuhi and of Shannon... it's up to depate if Krauss, Natsuhi and Shannon were 'dangerous') - be responsible of a murder and fear they would testify against you (the same can apply if someone you care is responsible for a murder and you fear they would testify against him) - be trying to shot at someone for some reason and have one of them end up on your line of shooting - have them go paranoid and become dangerous (possibly Gohda... I doubt the other 3 would go paranoid) - mistake them for one of the murder (you find them near to a corpse and with a gun in their hands and think they killed him when they just find him and picked up the gun... they think it was you who killed him as you've the gun... gunshots ensue and we say bye to one of the servants.) Note that I use 'they' but the motive might apply also for one of them only (actually in many cases it would be better if it applied for one of them only). Also there's the chance Genji committed suicide. In EP 2 he likely knows about the bomb but does nothing to stop it. I'll say if he were to believe his masters died he might consider not surviving to the tragedy. Here's an interesting thought. What if it was Genji who caused the island to blow up? |
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2011-11-21, 18:21 | Link #25834 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
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Yes, although it's real that greed is the motive for many crimes somehow having Kirye and Rudolf to kill so many people in cold blood just for the money doesn't sound like a motive good enough. When it was said that Ange was left in the Sumadera care I thought it could have been possible the Sumadera were blackmailing her and Rudolf so that if they weren't to pay Ange would die or something, giving them a more personal reason to be in need of money and be ready to do everything to get it but there's no evidence they were blackmailed. (and still, murdering everyone is a big hard to swallow) |
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2011-11-21, 18:23 | Link #25835 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
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2011-11-21, 18:44 | Link #25836 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
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Funny enough from the way they are described I can bet they're member of the 'X' Mas, an Italian unit of the Regia Marina (Royal Navvy). The X in their name is supposed to mean 10th, so yes, there's a number in their name (they were supposed to have the same name as Giulio Cesare's fave divison). Spoiler for Info about the Xª MAS you might or not might care to read:
However, apart from being named after a number and... well, being the only ones who had APPARENTLY the fitting characteristics to do the job (carrying the gold and Beatrice to Rokkenjima and being patriotic and good enough to stand against the soldiers in a Japanese military base)... I can't see any other reason for Ryukishi to involve them. |
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2011-11-21, 18:59 | Link #25837 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
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Yes, but I saw no evidence you accepted that the same premise could lead me to a different logic conclusion. Even your example about chosing boxes implies you're doing the logic choice while I'm merely picking up at random or stubbornly insisting on a box that I've picked up at random when I could reason think over and agree with you.
I already told you why I disagree with you, why I don't think your point of view is more logical than mine but we're merely bouncing the ball back and forth. You don't persuade me, I don't persuade you. End of the story. Since we can't find an agreement on our theories let's at least agree we disagree and get done with this. |
2011-11-21, 19:21 | Link #25838 | |||
Goat
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
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On the other hand, it's a hard sell to claim that "everyone is equally guilty". I have to think that some people are more responsible for it than others, but I definitively agree that it's not black and white with completely evil villains and perfectly innocent victims (Gohda and a few others arguably notwithstanding). I mean, Kyrie loves Ange; how can anyone doubt that? Quote:
Honestly, I find Maria being killed to be the hardest to swallow. And jjblue1's idea that Rosa killed her just makes me want to cry. |
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2011-11-21, 19:32 | Link #25839 | |
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Join Date: May 2009
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If everyone is partially guilty, than more than anything else it should not be viewed as an accident! Besides, it's highly unlikely that absolutely everyone was equally guilty. Under a circumstance where tragedy unfolds from greed, how are Gohda and Kumasawa going to be even remotely as culpable as Kyrie or Rosa? The truth - and justice - demand knowledge be shared. That this knowledge may be biased is understandable. However, we cannot analyze testimony and determine bias or truth if that testimony has never been given. And to spread the guilt evenly when it is impossible that it was actually evenly distributed is an injustice to those who are "less guilty," even if we accept the premise that everyone is somehow partially responsible.
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2011-11-21, 19:34 | Link #25840 | |||
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
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You're right about Ange, she may not have done all the things that were written of her throughout the episodes. In general the stuff that has her doing two different things or where she experiences magical things like 'out of order' meetings with Featherine are probably not real. But there is the ending of EP8. It seems to me that that scene validated her leaving the world as Ange and becoming a novelist. I think we shouldn't approach Umineko like it's finished, basically. So yeah, we can't confirm anything (other than what's been exposed in the stories), but it's basically like we're still in the middle of waiting for a new episode. And actually, there's more information coming out. There's that "Warewa no kokuhaku" booklet that's coming out this December, although I think it will have more solutions for the individual episodes 1-6 instead. I've made plans to get a hold of it (Merchandise thread) and I was thinking of summarizing it here when I do. Quote:
My main point is that this is the Spoilers, Theories and Interpretations thread, not the Present Blanket Statements, Swear at Ryukishi and Make an Asshole Of Myself thread. There are quite a few things we can criticise Ryukishi for of course. And those things should be discussed, although, I'm saying, that maybe we shouldn't be doing this on the Spoilers, Theories and Interpretation thread for pages and pages non-stop. By saying 'go elsewhere,' I mean maybe you should be doing this on the Overall Impressions thread. I am no moderator though, and until we get some real confirmation, go ahead, do as you please. Quote:
From a detective mystery point of view, this is probably a big no-no. But then, the main point of this whole 6, possibly 7 or 8 episodes was to try and understand what Yasu is going through. And the main point to all of this is that she has these false lives she's been living that she has to give up now. And once they've been given up she has nothing left except to kill herself. This stuff is outside the detective novel fiction, but it can still fit into the genre of 'mystery.' (i.e. say, a Steven King style mystery or other works of 'mystery' that aren't necessarily detective stories.) Anyways, this sort of revival kept happening in every episode, mostly for Kanon. I remember asking on here time and time again about how it is that Kanon could be walking again after he was dead. Let's see.. EP2, he revives for revenge and murder. EP3 he revives to save Jessica. I don't remember him reviving in EP1, but we've kinda figured out now that he didn't really die. As for Shannon, she has less revivals per se; but in EP3, her revivals were shown as being caused by George. That fits in with what Ryukishi has said so far that the culmination of her life is receiving acknowledgement of her love with George. But anything afterwards is death to Shannon (as Yasu has it stuck in her head that they can't actually be together.) Shannon however seems to be the one most likely to be in possession of a gun. Or Yasu. And a pistol no less, since she did the suicide-string-gun-behind-wardrobe trick in EP2. So, EP3 makes sense where she hugs George and shoots them both with one shot from his back. EP4 makes sense where she just starts shooting people at random. And then did the suicide-string trick on top of the grate. Anyways, is this what you meant? |
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