Anime Saimoe Tournament 2011 (Japan)

[Kyuu]

Originally Posted by zato_1one

Erica is leading now.

OMG, noooooooooooooooo. XD

That'd mean my turn to show some butthurt and tears.

XD

Actually, I feared this scenario when Yoshika was taken out. Not underestimating Strike Witches at all.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by zato_1one

Erica is leading now.

with a suspicious looking spike,

[wontaek]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

with a suspicious looking spike,

uh, I don't think it it is that suspicious, YET. Sure, there are likely to be many fake votes, probably for both side, but my bet is that Erica really is leading right now for the moment, maybe by very small margin.

[Micchi]

Pick: 1-0 (1-0, 78-67)
Prediction: 0-1 (0-1, 111-34)

A bit of a disappointing result due to the low vote totals, but happy that Lotte is through.

Pick: Erica
Prediction: Kanade

I don't really have a preference between these two.

[anisu]

Haha, wow. That was a shocking turn of events. Unfortunately, this means the harsh restrictions aren't going anywhere this year, and any loosening next year would have to be accompanied by new protections. Complaints about low turnout become pretty trivial in the face of such heavy cheating. So much for the group finals being uneventful.

Charts of all of Misaka's matches:

Spoiler for Misaka chart:

Vote volume, with vertical gray lines separating the second, third, and group final rounds:

Spoiler for Volume chart:

Naturally, both of the over-1000 spikes were Misaka's contested matches.

As for today's match, clearly we have shenanigans in play.

Spoiler for graph:

Does anybody know if 2ch or the code genereator is having technical difficulties? Or can anybody confirm whether at least one of the 2ch Erica votes after the flatlining is real?

[ion475]

So much for "People will go 8-0 in Group Final prediction". The almighty IP block is definitely in place to push Biribiri back to her normal level...

Oh well, start with 0-1 in Round 4, 105-38 Overall.

As for Group B - It's Kanade's to lose, as much as haters / trolls want to get a witch into QF just so the Magis get zero competitions...

Erica is leading now.

Meh, last 2 matches (Hoki v. Aria & Biribiri v. Rotte) the loser lead basically the whole way. All hail fake votes!

[Chaos2Frozen]

Originally Posted by Tainaka

I wonder who else is being made out to be a cheater.... somehow I really don't think Madoka girls have been, considering it's hype at the moment. I feel that the rest of the votes may be real.

But nobody suspected Misaka until this because she has a reason to be strong, in that case there's no reason why Madoka girls' strength isn't an illusion either especially with a hugh fanbase there's bound to be one or two idiots.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by Chaos2Frozen

But nobody suspected Misaka until this because she has a reason to be strong,

Did Misaka have reason to be this strong? Clearly, she's never won it all before, yet her performance against Homura (not just the fact she won, but also the sheer vote totals involved in that) suggested she was the favorite by a large margin to win it all this year.

in that case there's no reason why Madoka girls' strength isn't an illusion either

Madoka Magica is clearly very popular in Japan. Blu-Ray sales, NewType awards, etc... point towards that. There's no reason to think that the Madoka girls' strength isn't for real.

especially with a hugh fanbase there's bound to be one or two idiots.

With a huge fanbase, you don't necessarily need fake votes to win.

Besides, how often has a Madoka girl been in a tight match, and didn't lose, but needed suspicious vote spikes to win? Keep in mind that Misaka was in two tight contests.

The larger the margin of victory, the less likely I find the idea that (decisive) cheating may have been at play.


The Madoka Magica girls may simply be this strong, this year.

[anisu]

But nobody suspected Misaka until this because she has a reason to be strong, in that case there's no reason why Madoka girls' strength isn't an illusion either especially with a hugh fanbase there's bound to be one or two idiots.

There was a lot of surprise over her performance against Victorique, though. A lot of people thought her 3rd in prelims/450 votes in round 2 results were real and the win over Homura was due to sniping until she broke 600 again.

Homura went directly against this cheater, so bans targetted at him won't hit her voters. In addition, the Madoka match vote volume spikes are about the same size as unrelated contests like Tenshi/Mugi and Kuroneko/Sher, so even if there is cheating going on, it will be on a smaller scale than the Misaka scandal.

[Aya Reiko]

Isn't the old adage "It's not who's the most liked, but the least hated wins"?

Considering Biribiri made enemies of PMMM fans, Vicky fans, and Rie/Lotte fans, her defeat should not have been totally unexpected.

edit

Wow... that horizontal line from 4 til 6 is something that can't be faked, though CT's will definitely be out in force...

[Team Rocket Elite]

Yesterday's match:

Misaka Mikoto - 327
Astarotte Ygvar - 446

Well I can't say I would have ever expected a result like this. Even if Misaka voters were cheating to inflate her power level, I would have guessed someone who was almost on par with Azusa last year would still be strong enough to beat Lotte. I guess there may have been a larger backlash from the controversy than I thought there would be. Whatever the reason, one of the biggest threats to the Puella Magi has now been eliminated.

Today's match:

Tachibana Kanade vs Erica Hartmann

I don't think Kanade will have too much trouble with this match. She beat Gertrud without too much trouble last round and I don't think Erica will be that much stronger than Gertrud. Erica did beat Huang Lingyin but I think Kanade will be tougher to beat than that.

Vote:
Tachibana Kanade

Prediction:
Tachibana Kanade

[Ichuki]

Because of the cheating I wish they do a rematch from round 2 or 3 again with that Mikasa vs Homura match too or look them over carefully, and it seems like Erica and Kanade both flatlined

[Kyuu]

Originally Posted by Ichuki

Because of the cheating I wish they do a rematch from round 2 or 3 again with that Mikasa vs Homura match too or look them over carefully, and it seems like Erica and Kanade both flatlined

Even if Kanade loses (my fav) -- no. Don't even think about "redo" here.

[broken270]

So, either Misaka was not as strong as presumed, or anti-voting occurred to kick her out and make sure PMMM girls get a smooth ride in. If Erica defeats Kanade, I side on the fact that PMMM supporters want a smooth ride for their girls. Until then, I do not know what to think.

[Ithekro]

Iit will look really weird if all the girls that got to the finals with higher votes lose to those that didn't have higher votes (the 400/500+ girls losing to the 200/300+ girls).

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by broken270

So, either Misaka was not as strong as presumed, or anti-voting occurred to kick her out and make sure PMMM girls get a smooth ride in.

Lotte only had 26 more votes against Misaka than she did against Kurisu. If you want to chalk those 26 votes up to strategic Madoka Magica voters, so be it, but it was hardly a difference maker.

No, Misaka's vote simply collapsed. Her previous lowest showing was 450, which would have given her a narrow victory against Lotte. However, that previous low dropped to a new low of 327, a massive plummet of 123 fewer votes.

Truth be told, I'm actually a bit disappointed that Madoka Magica voters didn't show up in big numbers to snipe Misaka (if they did, Lotte should have easily topped 500 votes, given the vote totals that Homura, Sayaka, Mami, and Kyouko are all pulling down). Either there isn't a true Madoka Magica voting block (i.e. a voting block dedicated to seeing PMMM girls win as much as possible, no matter which PMMM girl it is), or they're not bothering with strategic voting against the strongest threats out there.

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Iit will look really weird if all the girls that got to the finals with higher votes lose to those that didn't have higher votes (the 400/500+ girls losing to the 200/300+ girls).

This I agree with. If that happens, it'll either have to be due to sniping or cheating (either in that finals match, or in the previous matches were some girls picked up 400/500 plus).

[Tainaka]

Originally Posted by broken270

So, either Misaka was not as strong as presumed, or anti-voting occurred to kick her out and make sure PMMM girls get a smooth ride in. If Erica defeats Kanade, I side on the fact that PMMM supporters want a smooth ride for their girls. Until then, I do not know what to think.

Honestly, I didn't understand why Mikoto was getting so much support.. she's really just "average" in my opinion... but now that this all had happened, I guess she really was only average... (still gets flamed by Mikoto fans even though it's my opinion :P)

I don't really see how Erica beating Kanade will suddenly prove your idea. They've been neck and neck this whole time.. granted Kanade has had more votes than Erica in the past rounds-- but not by too much. They're a pretty even match (honestly I think it's great Kanade got this far but I don't see her being strong enough to take out a puella magi)
But, like I keep saying: we'll find out for sure in the finals who's stronger than who.

[Chaos2Frozen]

I admit, my impressions and expectations are mostly influenced by how the characters have been doing on the International Saimoe contest where both Kanade and Mikoto are the strongest contestants, but I guess the Japanese have their own set of laws

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by Chaos2Frozen

I admit, my impressions and expectations are mostly influenced by how the characters have been doing on the International Saimoe contest where both Kanade and Mikoto are the strongest contestants, but I guess the Japanese have their own set of laws

What's considered "most moe" internationally isn't necessarily considered "most moe" in Japan (mind you, it's hard to find which particular character traits determine the difference).

Just compare how Saki characters did in J-SaiMoe 2009 to how Saki characters did in ISML 2009.

In fact, this is probably a big part of the reason why J-SaiMoe has strict geographical limits in who can vote in it.

Being a big Madoka Magica and Saki fan, I have to admit that my own tastes in moe align more with the Japanese than with my own countrymen it seems.

[anisu]

Truth be told, I'm actually a bit disappointed that Madoka Magica voters didn't show up in big numbers to snipe Misaka

Some probably gave up after Victorique didn't work out. Misaka had a clear lead in fake votes, and Astarotte isn't stronger than Victorique was. I didn't bother anti-voting this time because I have to use "that" to work around the foreigner ban. Then there's the expansion of bans removing a few legit votes from both sides.

but I guess the Japanese have their own set of laws

More like most of us foreigners have awful taste.