Fansub hits, dvd flops? I'm curious.

[guest]

Originally Posted by Aoie_Emesai

Wasn't there a research, well not a research but studies that say companies are more likely to choose more popular series of anime just because of its popularity on the net?

I hear that fansubs are like the test stages/beta for animes for the widespread uses after it's shown in Japan?? ^_^

the source, please.

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

Companies generally deny this. Not to mention, I don't really see much evidence of it in titles that get picked up. There are a lot of popular titles sitting out there unlicensed, and there have been some that were unpopular as fansubs that have been licensed. There are only a few that seem to be licensed because of fansub popularity, such as Kiminozo, but ACDragonMaster debunked that assertion before.

the source, please?

[Vexx]

The real answer is that different companies use a variety of means to determine popularity and chances in R1-land: some official and some unofficial.

Regardless of their means of "sniffing the winds" they're going to have a public policy stance of some sort that may or may not reflect what they actually do. This is true of almost any corporation.

So its unwise to make sweeping generalizations when the "target population" won't tell what they really do.

@guest:
Though people should generally provide their sources, there's not a lot of incentive to waste their time when you have no other contribution to the discussion, eh?

random aside: I will say Geneon lost an opportunity by not doing their own version of the bonus feature "guide to Shinto" that one of the fansub groups provided for Kamichu!

[Mentar]

Originally Posted by bayoab

Completely incorrect. Companies have explicity said multiple times that fansubs have killed sales of some series.

*lol*

They said it, so it must be true ... gawd, what a crock.

Look at it this way: If a series has NO fansubs, it has no customer base and thus no chance in the market at all. Please give an example of a show WITHOUT fansubs which sold well.

Quoth Industry Rep: We look and see it got 50k bittorent downloads and we look at the sales and there is definitely a gap. (This is paraphrased of an exact quote with some editing, he did not explicity mention bittorrent.)

If anyone seriously believes that if 50.000 people are downloading something for free they'd also shell out 25$ per DVD, he needs to have his head examined. And deserves to be put out of business.

Bittorrent numbers give labels some invaluable data about the popularity and market potential of a show. Not a number of people they lost DVD sales of.

Quoth Geneon(Otakon 03, (and 04?)): "Fansubs help sales of good series, fansubs hurt sales of bad series".

And that's a VERY GOOD THING about fansubs. Consequentially, it's stupid to licence fringe titles because the licence is relatively cheap. Rather, labels should strive to raise the bar and only invest in the cherries.

Geneon has actually spit out a list of underpreformers multiple times, but I never really take a note.

Overall, Geneon has the highest-quality lineup of all major labels. Nearly all of their shows have been good performers in the fansub time. That's the main reason why Geneon isn't in trouble.

[Kamui4356]

Originally Posted by guest

the source, please?

One of the sources is a link in this very thread. You can check animenewsnetwork for old press releases and con reports. I'm not about to look through them and provide you a link. As for popular vs unpopular, my source is the download statistics from various trackers. To clarify my definitions, an average of <15k per episode = unpopular, >35k = fairly popular, >50k = very popular. *Note that batches throw this off, as they don't count the people who downloaded the episodes individually.*

Originally Posted by Vexx

The real answer is that different companies use a variety of means to determine popularity and chances in R1-land: some official and some unofficial.

Regardless of their means of "sniffing the winds" they're going to have a public policy stance of some sort that may or may not reflect what they actually do. This is true of almost any corporation.

So its unwise to make sweeping generalizations when the "target population" won't tell what they really do.

I didn't say none of the companies did, only that they generally deny it, and I really don't see much evidence that would suggest it. If companies do regularly use download statistics in their decison process for aquiring a title, I don't think it's a major factor. There are a few exceptions though, I doubt Kodocha would have been licensed if not for popularity from fansubs.

[DaFool]

I trust that what DLW says here can be trusted, at least from his perspective:

http://www.animeondvd.com/blog/?cat=9

Now I am a fan of these 'B' and 'C' titles. I am not talking Green Green Erolutions here, but Windy Tales. Stuff that doesn't speak to the masses ('A' titles) but instead speaks personally.

The ironic thing is that back before The Flood, the anime market staple was precisely 'B' and 'C' titles (and often 'D' too)

[bluemist]

You know the very problem I have with this anime DVD industry?

They don't bring out their sales numbers.

Rarely do newspapers or news sites count them, rarely do companies release their stats, and we only see a glimpse of it whenever it is a monster hit and it rises up along with mainstream DVDs in mainstream DVD sales charts.

Without any "anime-specific" DVD sales figures, we cannot relatively "quantify" the impact of fansub downloads on it. Hence we can never factor in that specific anime's 'quality' as well.

[raphaël]

Originally Posted by Mentar

Look at it this way: If a series has NO fansubs, it has no customer base and thus no chance in the market at all. Please give an example of a show WITHOUT fansubs which sold well.

Porn?
Hentai?
Tentacles?

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by raphaël

Porn?
Hentai?
Tentacles?

And thats a completely different industry with a c ompletely different set of standards to measure sales.

[DaFool]

Before there was anime, porn was the #1 non-mainstream home video market in North America.

I wouldn't be surprised if the average hentai outsells the average anime, though seeded hentai torrents should be easier to find with a search engine.

[bayoab]

Originally Posted by Mentar

*lol*

They said it, so it must be true ... gawd, what a crock.

Look at it this way: If a series has NO fansubs, it has no customer base and thus no chance in the market at all. Please give an example of a show WITHOUT fansubs which sold well.

You are talking about an industry which refuses to disclose its sales figures. The same evidence that fansubs helps sales is equally circumstantial. (Infact, I have never heard a company say "fansubs have increased the number of sales" beside Geneon's line.) So if they don't say it, they must be hiding it right? Also, read my post above for the definition of bad series.

As I said long ago, finding a series which had no fansubs is VERY hard. Because at some point in time, someone has fansubbed at least an episode of everything. I actually believe Tactics which Manga just picked up had almost no fansubs and will therefore be interesting. Actually, I have given an example where the fansubs only got a handful of downloads and the series is now the #2 show on Toonami: Gash Bell. There is more than one way to create a fanbase you know. People who watch fansubs are less likely to buy a DVD in overall proportion to the people who watch the dubs. Anyway, you are talking about getting an actual number from a industry that doesnt hand out numbers. Infact... one of the time they have leads me into my next argument.

If anyone seriously believes that if 50.000 people are downloading something for free they'd also shell out 25$ per DVD, he needs to have his head examined. And deserves to be put out of business.

Bittorrent numbers give labels some invaluable data about the popularity and market potential of a show. Not a number of people they lost DVD sales of.

Inuyasha got ~33k sales per dvd. The fansubs had over 100k downloads. The show also appeared on CN. This is a huge discrepency. It gets even larger when you add in the people who watch [AS]. Also, bittorrent numbers mean absolutely nothing. As I have said before, 50k can download a series and still claim it sucks and they would never buy it. Example: Gundam Seed Destiny. Bittorrent numbers do not give you any information unless they are like Bleach or Naruto's. People will only watch these series cause they are free. I would bet people would not watch many of these series if they had to pay to watch them.

Also, your argument is self defeating. You claim they give invaluable data, and yet they are not to be judged for the number of sales. What if all 50k who download a show would never buy it ever?

Originally Posted by bluemist

Without any "anime-specific" DVD sales figures, we cannot relatively "quantify" the impact of fansub downloads on it. Hence we can never factor in that specific anime's 'quality' as well.

Correct, and because every series is fansubbed, the actual effect of fansubs on that series is competely unknown. It is impossible to actually study this.

[Vexx]

There's also a lot of contamination because most fansubs are those of shows that are *broadcast* on the air in Japan and therefore *free* to the viewing audience anyway (sharing the monitoring of signals without profit makes some corporate brains spin in confusion though). If airing these shows impacted DVD sales, you'd see lamentations to that effect within Japan - but they're a tool for upping the DVD sales. In effect (ignoring other legal quibbles), fansubs are the equivalent of broadcast airing in the states --- something that would never happen because the audience is too small for the networks to attract advertising and it saves the studio a lot of advertising dollars (any real argument against fansubs would have to factor that in).
Now... fansubbing of *DVDs* --- I readily concede might have an impact on potential sales of R1 DVDs and I try to avoid those unless I'm damn positive we'll never see them in R1 land.

I'll happily watch the fansub hobby vanish once there's:
1) a dropping of region codes for complete market transparency (you know.. that globalization chant? It should be balanced for consumers too)
2) incorporation of multi-lingual subtitles in all initial releases of media (part of globalz internationalization)

The only concern I have is that many countries think they have to "americanize" stuff for release here which is a shame because some of the attraction of certain properties is their cultural charm. I much prefer BBC series to most of the "americanized" reworks. Das Boot and Stalingrad (movies) worked so well *because* it had a German perspective (rather than having american/english actors). The recent Chinese films (Flying Daggers, Crouching Tiger..., Hero) are other examples. Hell, foreign *commercials* are damn funny... I wish they'd leave those in the fansubs.

[LytHka]

Originally Posted by Vexx

I'll happily watch the fansub hobby vanish once there's:
1) a dropping of region codes for complete market transparency (you know.. that globalization chant? It should be balanced for consumers too)
2) incorporation of multi-lingual subtitles in all initial releases of media (part of globalz internationalization)

Stop using phrases like "I will" when you're giving irrational conditions. It's fact that the current business model "works" for the industry. We're seeing that studios are bringing out more and more titles per season which tells us that they're not really running out of money. But to think that you're contributing something to the industry with watching fansubs is just bogus crap. The ones in Japan, watching their TV sets do to some extent. They help raise TV audience when the commercials are on (ads = money). Most commercials you don't see in fansubs and they're not meant for anyone else except the Japanese market anyway. So, please, stop pretending that you're contributing something to the industry because you're being granted the privilege to watch fan translated TV rips. Your spent hours watching fansubs and feelings you got when watching them mean a rats ass to the industry. What counts the most is DVD sales and licences. Period.

lol, but this post is so~ offtopic and so is yours.

[Mentar]

Originally Posted by bayoab

You are talking about an industry which refuses to disclose its sales figures.

And you never wondered why?

The same evidence that fansubs helps sales is equally circumstantial. (Infact, I have never heard a company say "fansubs have increased the number of sales" beside Geneon's line.) So if they don't say it, they must be hiding it right? Also, read my post above for the definition of bad series.

My point is that most of the R1 labels are ridiculously dishonest indeed, Geneon being one of the few exceptions from the rule (which is one of the reasons why most of my R1 sales go to Geneon).

And my main point is that publicity of a show is the key to DVD sales. Contrary to what ADV tries to make people believe with their propaganda I think it's evident that DVDs sell well when the show is KNOWN to people. Anime fans usually don't buy DVDs blindly anymore. R1 releases aren't "enablers" anymore which people use to watch an anime for the first time. No, in general, people buy R1 DVDs of shows they've seen before, and which they like so much that they want to own them. Preferably in a quality which is superior to the fansubs (or DVDrips) they've seen them before in. R1 DVDs are primarily _archive_ material nowadays. Of the last 10 R1 purchases I made, 6 are still shrinkwrapped. Only one of the "opened" ones was to really watch it. And I know that most of my anime friends do the very same things for the very same reasons.

This is why I consider the ADV crocodile tears so hypocritical (or, if they're indeed genuine, a sign of their horrible lack of understanding of the anime scene - which I don't believe). Pointing to bittorrent download numbers and then saying "hey, so much more people downloaded it without buying it, and that's the evil fansubbers' fault" is idiotic. Out of 10 shows I watch on fansubs, I tend to buy 1-2 maximum, and I'm fulltime employed (and so, financially potent). I'd never dream of purchasing several shows - fansubs only help me select what I like. Now think of some schoolkids who wouldn't have the funds in the first place. Are all those "sales lost to fansubs"? Gimme a break.

As I said long ago, finding a series which had no fansubs is VERY hard. Because at some point in time, someone has fansubbed at least an episode of everything. I actually believe Tactics which Manga just picked up had almost no fansubs and will therefore be interesting.

Okay. Go to your local anime shopowner and ask him if a run is setting in on Tactics (which was a mediocre show at best with a few fansubs). By ADV's logic, it should be a hit. I predict a dud.

Actually, I have given an example where the fansubs only got a handful of downloads and the series is now the #2 show on Toonami: Gash Bell. There is more than one way to create a fanbase you know.

Here you're undermining your own logic perfectly: I'm no American, but isn't Gash Bell running on CN? Just like Inuyasha (see below). Of course TV airings have tremendous media reach and create publicity like nuts. They're like fansubs on steroids. If "free" exposure through fansubs would be harmful for sales, then all shows which air on American TV should be the complete death of the DVD sales.

And guess what? It's the OPPOSITE! The DVD sales of shows on TV are among the BEST and HIGHEST. Which is one of the strongest bits of evidence in _my_ favor. These shows sell well BECAUSE people learned to love the shows, and REGARDLESS of the fact that they've seen it for free on TV before. Because it's a purchase out of love, for ARCHIVE reasons. They want to OWN the show they've seen before.

If ADV's (and obviously your) reasoning was correct, the DVD sales of American TV shows should be in the crapper. Alas, that's not how it is.

People who watch fansubs are less likely to buy a DVD in overall proportion to the people who watch the dubs.

That's making no sense whatsoever. You CANNOT watch the dubs unless you have purchased the DVD first (or watched it on TV). And you'll hardly contest the fact that the TV shows have extremely high sales.

Inuyasha got ~33k sales per dvd. The fansubs had over 100k downloads. The show also appeared on CN. This is a huge discrepency.

Thanks for proving my point.

Also, bittorrent numbers mean absolutely nothing. As I have said before, 50k can download a series and still claim it sucks and they would never buy it. Example: Gundam Seed Destiny. Bittorrent numbers do not give you any information unless they are like Bleach or Naruto's.

Of course they do. They let us gauge how big the market potential is. Huge download numbers don't automatically mean huge sales (the show must be good too). But bad download numbers almost irreversibly doom a show to commercial failure.

People will only watch these series cause they are free. I would bet people would not watch many of these series if they had to pay to watch them.

Most definitely. So you'd prefer to let customers purchase crap blindly? In other words, it's the fansub's fault that crap shows can't be sold anymore by flashy covers and positive pseudo-reviews? My heart is bleeding for the poor R1 labels.

It's exactly as Geneon said. Fansubs help good shows and hurt bad ones. And _both_ of these effects are beneficial for the anime community.

[zalas]

Originally Posted by Vexx

There's also a lot of contamination because most fansubs are those of shows that are *broadcast* on the air in Japan and therefore *free* to the viewing audience anyway (sharing the monitoring of signals without profit makes some corporate brains spin in confusion though).

Yes, they are free provided:
1) It's not aired on a cable/satellite network with a subscription program
2) You live in Japan and may buy products advertised during the airing (outside of channels like NHK which broadcast overseas as well)

Originally Posted by Vexx

If airing these shows impacted DVD sales, you'd see lamentations to that effect within Japan - but they're a tool for upping the DVD sales. In effect (ignoring other legal quibbles), fansubs are the equivalent of broadcast airing in the states --- something that would never happen because the audience is too small for the networks to attract advertising and it saves the studio a lot of advertising dollars (any real argument against fansubs would have to factor that in).

Well, while people can record the aired TV shows onto their set top boxes, it's extra effort in order to *preserve* shows for multiple viewings at a later time. It is trivial to do this with fansubs, since once you've downloaded the file, you have the file. Furthermore, TV probably hits a lot more people than fansubs. Thus, while fansubs may have similar effects in advertisement, the actual amount is probably not comparable to TV airings in my opinion. Furthermore, it sounds like we're going to get even more anime channels, as FUNimation had just announced their FUNimation channel which would be broadcast for free over digital TV in the Los Angeles area to start and hopefully move onto other networks and regions.

[LytHka]

Originally Posted by Mentar

Now think of some schoolkids who wouldn't have the funds in the first place. Are all those "sales lost to fansubs"? Gimme a break.

I was involved in a discussion about this in some IRC channel. It really depends on the country and school system. Kids living in a country with strong working habits and weak study habits (the U.S.) will have a lot of money to spend, while receiving allowance from their parents. Allowance may not be enough, but part-time work should be. That's why most DVD sales in the U.S. come from teens. But take a kid from a very school-oriented culture, my country, for example; kids here don't have time to work part-time because they have either school activities or studying to do after school. But since we're already talking about R1 region, let's stick to it. Every anime fan who is still a kid in the U.S. is most likely a potential DVD buyer. Most of them don't know about fansubs. Most of them really get acquainted with fansubs at last when they hit college. Fansubs are for college file swappers and those are really the "fans" who usually don't buy anything.

Okay. Go to your local anime shopowner and ask him if a run is setting in on Tactics (which was a mediocre show at best with a few fansubs). By ADV's logic, it should be a hit. I predict a dud.

Bishounen (shounen-ai-ish) shows always sell well.

[Vexx]

Originally Posted by LytHka

Stop using phrases like "I will" when you're giving irrational conditions. It's fact that the current business model "works" for the industry. We're seeing that studios are bringing out more and more titles per season which tells us that they're not really running out of money. But to think that you're contributing something to the industry with watching fansubs is just bogus crap. The ones in Japan, watching their TV sets do to some extent. They help raise TV audience when the commercials are on (ads = money). Most commercials you don't see in fansubs and they're not meant for anyone else except the Japanese market anyway. So, please, stop pretending that you're contributing something to the industry because you're being granted the privilege to watch fan translated TV rips. Your spent hours watching fansubs and feelings you got when watching them mean a rats ass to the industry. What counts the most is DVD sales and licences. Period.

lol, but this post is so~ offtopic and so is yours.

But since I spend over a thousand american dollars a year on DVDs that I wouldn't buy otherwise - it kind of punctures your "doesn't contribute" argument. Dropping the region code is not irrational --- it is an anti-consumer tactic in a global economy. Wanting internationalization subtitles is not irrational either. Maybe *you* need to check your definition of irrational.

Per the commercial, I just happen to *like* watching foreign commercials - they show some innovation or novelty I don't see much of here.

As for it being "offtopic" since we're discussing sales of DVDs versus fansub "hits" so I think the constraints are pertinent to the discussion.

[raphaël]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

And thats a completely different industry with a c ompletely different set of standards to measure sales.

I was joking, basically.
Seems I failed to make everyone laugh, here.... *sighs

[LytHka]

Originally Posted by Vexx

But since I spend over a thousand american dollars a year on DVDs that I wouldn't buy otherwise - it kind of punctures your "doesn't contribute"

No, the "you" was addressing anyone that thinks he/she contributes something with watching fansubs. You're not THAT important.

EDIT: Your wishes about globalization are completely irrational because region codes and keeping things (un)translated for specific regions is what brings the companies more money in the long run. The fansub scene is a relatively unimportant fraction of the whole population of anime fans, so, while you're being a minority amongst an already unimportant niché group of people, you're just really easy to neglect. And the companies serve the majority. First, milk out the Japanese, then, milk out the NA region for all its worth. I, who wants to see more anime shows produced, have no problems with that logic.

[Mentar]

Originally Posted by LytHka

No, the "you" was addressing anyone that thinks he/she contributes something with watching fansubs. You're not THAT important.

Hilarious. First you lecture people about being "offtopic" while they're contributing relevant informations to the thread, and then you're putting words into other people's mouths which have absolutely nothing to do with the issue on hand.

The point is not whether or not watching fansubs "contributes" anything, and neither did Vexx or anyone else here claim that he was in any way important.

[Vexx]

Originally Posted by LytHka

No, the "you" was addressing anyone that thinks he/she contributes something with watching fansubs. You're not THAT important.

EDIT: Your wishes about globalization are completely irrational because region codes and keeping things (un)translated for specific regions is what brings the companies more money in the long run. The fansub scene is a relatively unimportant fraction of the whole population of anime fans, so, while you're being a minority amongst an already unimportant niché group of people, you're just really easy to neglect. And the companies serve the majority. First, milk out the Japanese, then, milk out the NA region for all its worth. I, who wants to see more anime shows produced, have no problems with that logic.

1) You're a happily programmed little sheeple then... I'm sure the corporations love you Corporations will work under whatever rules are in place as long as they can make a profit as they always have.

2) You're showing little understanding of trade cartel and price-fixing rules in the world markets under the WTO. The region coding is under attack from a number of countries due to its obvious price-fixing --- globalization works both ways whether the corporations like it or not. If the region coding vanishes, prices will stabilize under free market forces. Region coding and internationalization affect *all* entertainment, not just anime.

3) Try your canned arguments on someone to whom it applies. You're not even on the right channel in this discussion.

4) By my purchasing power, I'm a lot more important to a corporation than someone who spends nothing. Whats *your* purchasing value?