2016-08-25, 16:01 | Link #21 | |
Banned
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Montreal, QC, Canada
Age: 41
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Hypothetically speaking, would that happen if China were the ones launching a military invasion for the single purpose of getting rid of Fatso and putting a puppet president in place though? I'm not sure refugees would converge to the North and it would be borderline suicidal to try going to the South. |
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2016-08-25, 16:36 | Link #22 | |
Not Enough Sleep
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: R'lyeh
Age: 48
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2016-08-25, 20:36 | Link #23 | |
今宵の虎徹は血に飢えている
Join Date: Jan 2009
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Although I'd say shooting it down would score some PR points for sure
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2016-08-26, 02:10 | Link #24 | |
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Holy Terra
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2. In event that NK and China go all out China will just sit on their side of the border and let NK invade South Korea thus prompting US attack. Why would Chinese bleed their own military when they can make US do it? 3. That will never happen because not even Chinese don't want to bother with 20+ million refugees. |
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2016-08-26, 03:14 | Link #25 | |||
Banned
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Location: Montreal, QC, Canada
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The reason why I raised the hypothetical question was that history has shown since 1954 that "allies" who go rogue against any superpower end up being swiftly invaded. Furthermore, some PLA generals might feel the need to test their new toys as well (just as in any big army). Last but not least, Kim Jong-Un's elder brother lived in China for a good amount of time during his exile; he might just be that puppet China would consider putting in place without creating too much controversy inside North Korea. Quote:
On a sidenote: I'm quite surprised that for all the usual hawkish talk by the CCP/PLA against the US and Japan, they don't push to have a good testing battleground somewhere (like North Korea). Is there such a lack of faith in the PLA's capabilities? Last edited by KiraYamatoFan; 2016-08-26 at 05:20. |
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2016-08-26, 05:01 | Link #26 | |
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Holy Terra
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-NK have nukes, we don't know how many but they have them. And being crazy as they are I have no doubt that they would nuke their own territory at the first sign of invading army. Pretty much like Russians would if invaded and pushed from their current borders. -On top of that you have entire nation of fanatics who are taught from birth that everyone except Kim is hating them because they are "superior nation". So invading NK would be pretty much like invading Japan in 1945 - hundreds upon thousands of dead soldiers for the invading force. -And the biggest issue here: the population itself. North Korea has 24,895,000 people, let that sink in for a while... Let's say that the war is won and Kim is put down from power. You think that those 24+ million people would just sit around and do nothing? As soon as world opens to them and they learn for good western way of life is South Korea and Japan would face immigration crisis like EU is right now - only 10x bigger. And nobody, and I mean nobody wants that large number of refugees. North Korea will be left alone indefinitely. It's just too costly for anyone to bring them down, and the consequences of their downfall woudl be even bigger for the region. Never-mind world economy as refugees woudl swarm 4 very powerful economic houses and cause havoc. As it stands North Korea will be left alone, they know it and they are using the best of this situation. Only time will tell what will happen, but as world power slowly shifts from US to China and Russia the question of NK will be open for interpretation in the future. |
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2016-08-26, 16:15 | Link #27 |
Sav'aaq!
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Hyrule
Age: 51
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I'm guessing the lack of someone in place to lead that coup is probably the only thing keeping that from already happening. And China is hardly the only country who would see the value in doing something like that. Swiftly and cleanly replacing Kim Jong Un and his inner circle with someone less inured to near-religious fanatical devotion and xenophobic paranoia, however that comes around, is in the best interest of everyone. Problem is, the idea of "near-religious fanatical devotion and xenophobic paranoia" being a virtue is hammered into every NK citizen from birth.
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2016-08-26, 18:05 | Link #28 |
大佐
Join Date: Jun 2013
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China's interest on the Korean peninsula is the maintenance of the status quo. They neither have an interest in a collapse of internal order in North Korea with all the associated uncertainties, nor do they have an interest in the extension of American influence up to the Yalu. The Chinese don't care who is running the show in North Korea as long as they don't try to overthrow the status quo. Thus the Chinese also have no interest whatsoever in a military excursion into North Korea and the Chinese aren't blind. They have noticed that the West's supposedly swift military endeavours the last decade and a half have left a bigger chaos than the pre-war status was.
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2016-08-26, 18:45 | Link #29 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2007
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Invading a country is simple. The Chinese or anybody else could probably neutralize the North Koreans in a straight forward fight assuming the nukes are out of the picture or just nuked. The problem is what to do "AFTER" you've won. You can't just invade a country and leave 20 million people alone you have to take care of them. I'm pretty sure the South Koreans are well aware of this as well and aren't exactly keen on it. |
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2016-08-27, 05:34 | Link #31 | |
Part-time misanthrope
Join Date: Mar 2007
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Of course you'd have to find a way that doesn't include your country turning into a radioactive wasteland first. |
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2016-09-01, 12:32 | Link #34 | |
Sav'aaq!
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2016-09-01, 22:34 | Link #35 |
Logician and Romantic
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Within my mind
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How much does S-Korean citizens feel about the odds of being attacked for real?
Because if they start to believe NK would never actually attack, then it just might make economic sense to just ignore them. But if there is a belief of a real danger of war, then the economic costs of reunification could be worth actually no longer worry about still being technically at war. It's just that the Koreas are stuck in a situation where they are at peace, but not really. And limbo is just not going one way or another.
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2016-09-01, 23:15 | Link #36 | |
Sav'aaq!
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2016-09-02, 00:33 | Link #37 | |
Logician and Romantic
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Within my mind
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Wouldn't it be economically beneficial for S-Korea to never have to worry about having their Capital blown up by artillery shells? Or has the citizens already gotten used to the threat and stopped caring? Does the Korean citizens truly care so little about solving the war that never officially ended?
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2016-09-02, 00:53 | Link #38 | |
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Holy Terra
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And no, people of South Korea pretty much see NK situation as "normal" and are aware that North will never attack them. After all, entire North campaign and propaganda is about defense, not offense. They are also perfectly happy with they are right abotu now because, as post above said - in the end South Korea will eventually fall under influence of China. Japan as well given enough time. |
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2016-09-02, 03:40 | Link #39 | |
Logician and Romantic
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The Vietnamese people have managed to keep the Chinese out of their country for centuries, and they never once considered the possibility of not being able to keep this up. If Vietnam has confidence in themselves, why not the Koreans?
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2016-09-02, 04:46 | Link #40 |
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Holy Terra
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Vietnam was only able to do so because there was always good old US of A to keep China in check.
Take them out of the equation and even Vietnam will have no choice in the end but to start openly trading with China and submit to any of their demands - be it economical or political. |
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