2020 US Presidential Election Discussion (primary & general)

[Guardian Enzo]

My favorite part was when he said COVID-19 would be stopped by "herd mentality".

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by kari-no-sugata II

538 currently give Biden a 30 in 100 chance of a "landslide" victory (double digit margin). Wouldn't that be enough?

Enough for Biden to win? Yes. Enough for Trump to accept defeat? No. Remember most trump followers like to believe they are the word of reason when the simple truth is that they are swayed by emotions (remember, fear leads to hate, hate leads to the dark times we are living in). Trump does not have to show proof, he can retweet conspiracy theories about forged mail in votes and what not and his followers will drink the kool aid with delight each and every time.

[kari-no-sugata II]

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

Enough for Biden to win? Yes. Enough for Trump to accept defeat? No. Remember most trump followers like to believe they are the word of reason when the simple truth is that they are swayed by emotions (remember, fear leads to hate, hate leads to the dark times we are living in). Trump does not have to show proof, he can retweet conspiracy theories about forged mail in votes and what not and his followers will drink the kool aid with delight each and every time.

If you're right then such a scenario would likely be catastrophic.

[Guardian Enzo]

https://twitter.com/JournalistJG/sta...324295168?s=20

[Key Board]

Yes, I hope government officials realize that there are some things that can not be solved with just #voteblue

//

[ramlaen]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

https://twitter.com/JournalistJG/sta...324295168?s=20

This video is a great example of the koolaid I spoke of, might as well have had this chyron for the Step 1.

[kari-no-sugata II]

Decent summary of the state of the polls vs the punditry:
https://unherd.com/2020/09/is-donald-trump-toast/

Putting it simply: just because the polls were off a bit in 2016 (an average sized polling error), there's no reason to expect the exact same thing to happen in same way again. Genuine pollsters have plenty of motivation to get things right and are always adjusting their methodology and it's entirely possible that they could overcorrect, for example. So don't think that you can predict the degree let alone the direction of any polling errors.

Two things I'd add to the article: polls in 2018 were generally quite accurate and in this year compared to 2016 there's a lot of high quality polling of battleground states.

[SeijiSensei]

Not weighting for education was the principal source of error in 2016. That was only somewhat the fault of the pollsters because the correlation between having a college degree and voting Democratic was considerably greater in 2016 than in any previous year. Pretty much any serious pollster weights by education these days.

[Guardian Enzo]

Historically the polling error in. 2016 was quite normal - less than 2 points. The problem was that those 2 points came almost all in the upper Midwest and PA.

[SeijiSensei]

The national polls were Clinton +3; she won by two.

State polling, however, was pretty poor in the competitive states. On the other hand, Trump won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by fewer than 80,000 votes. Polls are not that accurate.

https://www.politicsbythenumbers.org...-mean-a-thing/

[Ithekro]

And winning by a super majority in California does nothing special over the electors gained.

[Guardian Enzo]

Much more focus on state polling this cycle. But also Trump has the full apparatus of power to suppress the vote.

[cyberdemon]

If a Majority of conservative justiceS agrees with him then they lose all right to be called constitutionalists

[James Rye]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

Damn, this is something. Not that this gonna change the minds of an Trump-fanatic, but it might change the minds of some undecided Voters.

[cyberdemon]

This is outright tax evasion. He also stole from the government by taking those returns while paying nothing. Apparently it also lines up with things that were in Cohen’s book. If this is true things are only going to get even messier over the next few months.

Any time he claims fake news without any proof otherwise, I’m take it as actually being the truth. He could very easily prove it wrong by releasing his tax returns but still refuses to. This would definitely explain why he is so against it.

Funnily enough, Democrats wanted a reason to impeach him again to stop the SC nomination. If this had been legally obtained, it would’ve been more than enough.

Originally Posted by James Rye

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

Damn, this is something. Not that this gonna change the minds of an Trump-fanatic, but it might change the minds of some undecided Voters.

Sadly. They would pass it off as him being a great businessman rather than a horrible businessman and a thief.

[The Green One]

Nah it still wouldn't of worked. If Trump proclaims the world is flat the Republican party will dutifully parrot it to the best of their ability. Trump impeachment was never going to pass in Republican controlled portions. Trump's base will forgive anything for their leader. This will be no different.

Funny how years ago Trump ranted and raved about corruption in the swamp and he's just as corrupt as any of them. Trump's hypocrisy never changes.

[Guardian Enzo]

The tax evasion part is easier to sell to voters, but the real story is that he has $410 million in debt that he's personally guaranteed. That's a huge national security risk, not that Rs will say bo peep about it.

[cyberdemon]

Right now being president is probably all that is keeping him out of jail for tax fraud. If he loses then he is definitely not going to peacefully leave. He literally can’t afford to leave the White House.

[ramlaen]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

The tax evasion part is easier to sell to voters, but the real story is that he has $410 million in debt that he's personally guaranteed. That's a huge national security risk, not that Rs will say bo peep about it.

I guess we need to add US tax code and real estate finance to the previously mentioned civics lessons.

For those with a legit interest in the subject, this twitter thread explains why the media (and Democrats like Pelosi) babbling about debt are using your ignorance to create the appearance of scandal.

https://twitter.com/mollyfprince/sta...82295733452802

[cyberdemon]

Originally Posted by ramlaen

I guess we need to add US tax code and real estate finance to the previously mentioned civics lessons.

For those with a legit interest in the subject, this twitter thread explains why the media (and Democrats like Pelosi) babbling about debt are using your ignorance to create the appearance of scandal.

https://twitter.com/mollyfprince/sta...82295733452802

Doesn’t change the fact that he stole over 70 million from the government in returns that he didn’t pay the taxes for.