Have any of you noticed a decrease in forum activity?

[DonQuigleone]

Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf

I'm certainly aware of the dangers of selection bias, which is why I stated outright that I have no figures to back up my opinion.

But I will nonetheless assert that the anime industry as a whole is chasing a shrinking market. It's churning out shows that are still mainly targeted at teens and young adults in their 20s, at a time when the number of babies born in Japan is hitting record lows. A good number of anime's original audience has, in the meantime, grown older. Yet, there aren't that many anime series every year that specifically targets this group of older, one-time fans.

Many people will claim that there's no age limit to watching cartoons or anime. That's true. But the reality is that people's interests do change over time. That ought to be a no-brainer. As teens turn into adults, they enter university, graduate, land their first jobs, get married, have kids of their own, buy their first homes, rue their greying crowns, and worry about funding their children's education.

Amid all these pressing concerns, they simply aren't going to be cooing over the latest animated high-school romance/drama, no matter how brightly coloured it is.

And if you're not making shows to cater to these changing interests brought on by changing perspectives, then you're quite simply going to lose these fans over time.

So, if AnimeSuki appears to be losing long-time members, I'd say the root cause has very little to do with the forum itself — with or without gimicks like a reputation system. It's rather that the genre as a whole is stuck in time and is increasingly irrelevant to many older fans, who've largely moved on.

I have to say, I do agree with you on this. I find the ubiquity of content aimed at teens to be just as frustrating. That said, I do think there's content out there in Asia that suits our "greying" tastes. If we look purely at Manga, there's all that salaryman manga being produced. However, I have noticed that Salaryman manga are not the manga that get translated.

Likewise, if we look at our "sister fandom" of Asian Drama, most of the drama that gets attention/is translated is the asian equivalent of Soap Opera. It's easy to find out about the latest Takuya Kimura vehicle, but not the latest classical novel adaptation.

Maybe our fandom itself is very "youth" oriented?

[Akito Kinomoto]

Originally Posted by DonQuigleone

Maybe our fandom itself is very "youth" oriented?

Looking at the user base of a larger site like MAL, I wouldn't doubt it. Take this with a grain of salt, but I notice the "active community" and not just people on fansites randomly seem to get older and older. RL stuff takes over eventually, but what can you do. I remember just last year when the site usually had ~150 registered users logged in at any point, but now it coasts along 110. Sort of like watching the old lion whose age has finally caught up with it. I can't say I'm as enthusiastic for watching anime as I used to be. Bleh.

[Artful_Dodger]

Originally Posted by Akito Kinomoto

Looking at the user base of a larger site like MAL, I wouldn't doubt it.

I've never been there but visited out of curiosity just to get an idea of how much traffic they're dealing with. Indeed, its relatively high. I didn't spend much time there, but from looking around, the forum seems quite basic and doesn't seem to have any of the bells and whistles that have been suggested to be added/installed here from the site-feedback forum; I thought that was pretty interesting.

I wonder if its an older/more established forum, or are there just many prominent people in the anime community that frequent there(people do tend to join sites because of who's there)?

[Archon_Wing]

MAL's site is alive because the main purpose is to keep profiles. The forums are just a bonus and an afterthought and thus terrible for all kinds of reasons.

[Midnight_Commander]

Originally Posted by Artful_Dodger

I've never been there but visited out of curiosity just to get an idea of how much traffic they're dealing with. Indeed, its relatively high. I didn't spend much time there, but from looking around, the forum seems quite basic and doesn't seem to have any of the bells and whistles that have been suggested to be added/installed here from the site-feedback forum; I thought that was pretty interesting.

Perhaps instead of adding the "bells and whistles" you mention, this site needs to add another purpose to visit. From my understanding the original purpose of this site was to provide visitors with links to unlicensed manga, and later the forum became the main attraction.

I don't think it would hurt to try and add some other attractions here, like its own recommendation database, or a component that allows budding manga artists to showcase their work by uploading their pilot manga chapters, which will provide other reasons for people to stick around and hang out. (the above are just arbitrary examples )

Originally Posted by Archon_Wing

MAL's site is alive because the main purpose is to keep profiles. The forums are just a bonus and an afterthought and thus terrible for all kinds of reasons.

I've never used or visited their forums, but why do you feel the forums are terrible? Do you only use the site for recommendations? Anyway, the site in general seems to be doing relatively well, but I don't know much about manga/anime sites, so I don't know who I'd compare them to besides perhaps, anime-planet? Maybe the lack of competition in the "anime recommendation database" space is a factor in their success as well.

[Solace]

Originally Posted by Midnight_Commander

From my understanding the original purpose of this site was to provide visitors with links to unlicensed manga, and later the forum became the main attraction.

The site was formed around assisting fansub groups in providing anime to English speaking audiences (and giving fans a place to discuss their favorite anime, of course). We didn't want to promote piracy, which is why any anime that was licensed was considered a kind of "mission accomplished" and removed from our database.

Today that's not important, for the most part. Anime is very popular, translations are readily available, and most anime is licensed before it even airs.

The forum was always popular, and never second place to the torrent site.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by Archon_Wing

MAL's site is alive because the main purpose is to keep profiles.

Right. MAL's personal profile system is excellent for thoroughly displaying your particular taste in anime, and linking it up with other MAL members on the basis of percentage similarity. For somebody relatively new to the online anime fandom, I would imagine it's a very useful way to meet new people and make new friends in the fandom. Forum-use is probably based a lot on simple convenience ('this is a place where I meet other anime fans with tastes similar to my own, so I might as well also use their forums').

[Archon_Wing]

Originally Posted by Midnight_Commander

Perhaps instead of adding the "bells and whistles" you mention, this site needs to add another purpose to visit. From my understanding the original purpose of this site was to provide visitors with links to unlicensed manga, and later the forum became the main attraction.

I don't think it would hurt to try and add some other attractions here, like its own recommendation database, or a component that allows budding manga artists to showcase their work by uploading their pilot manga chapters, which will provide other reasons for people to stick around and hang out. (the above are just arbitrary examples )

That's fine too, but it does involve a lot of work and ultimately more need for moderation. If anything, the club feature could be expanded.

I've never used or visited their forums, but why do you feel the forums are terrible? Do you only use the site for recommendations? Anyway, the site in general seems to be doing relatively well, but I don't know much about manga/anime sites, so I don't know who I'd compare them to besides perhaps, anime-planet? Maybe the lack of competition in the "anime recommendation database" space is a factor in their success as well.

MAL forums has too much flaming and not enough moderation plus numerous petty squabbles that involve trying to artificially increase the rating of various popular shows. Half the shit wouldn't even stay on this site for more than an hour. This isn't to say that the entire community is bad (the clubs are usually the best place to socialize.) but rather it doesn't do a good job of keeping out various toxic elements. And they aren't to completely blame either-- you just get these things as the result of a larger population so bigger isn't always better.

[Artful_Dodger]

Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf

So, no. I won't say I'm particularly active on social media, although I don't see how that's relevant to the discussion. I would say, though, that the only reason that I started using social media regularly is thanks to my smartphone. A pocket computer that's essentially designed to keep you connected and in constant communication makes social-media use a natural extension to daily face-to-face interaction.

I was wondering if there might have been a correlation between your usage on a classic forum like this and something like facebook; i.e. is it inversely proportionate? Over the recent years theres been talk of classic forums like these dying out because of other mediums such as facebook groups, google groups, etc. They look like mere comment sections to me, and I wouldn't use them for having an in-depth discussion or asking questions, but someone born in the mid to late 90's might feel differently. It'd be interesting to hear why pepole visit this forum instead of a facebook group and vice versa.

You mentioned above that the forum might simply be in a period of transition (paraphrasing), where old users are moving out and new users in; perhaps you're right. I've seen several new users in the forums I read here over the last year.

[arilando]

Originally Posted by Solace

It's important to recognize that the industry peaked in English speaking territories back in 2008 and has been in decline ever since.

Do you have source for that?

[Solace]

Originally Posted by arilando

Do you have source for that?

Google can give you plenty of sources. The industry has recovered slightly, but we're still nowhere near the English licensing frenzy and huge number of anime produced that occurred in the early 2k's.

[arilando]

Originally Posted by Solace

Google can give you plenty of sources. The industry has recovered slightly, but we're still nowhere near the English licensing frenzy and huge number of anime produced that occurred in the early 2k's.

I wouldn't really know what to google, altough you could very well be right about DVD releases overseas. But surely Crunchyroll is still licensing? I don't think Crunchyroll brings in less money to the producers than overseas DVD releases did.
As for the number of anime produced, i'm pretty sure, altough there was a decline immediately after 2006, that it has recovered. If you search for how many TV anime began airing a certain year on anidb, you get this result:
2014 201
2013 185
2012 159
2011 145
2010 119
2009 134
2008 143
2007 147
2006 177
2005 120
2004 132
2003 108
2002 89
2001 93
2000 56

[Solace]

Right, but you're replying to a post I made at the beginning of last year. You'll have to forgive me if I wasn't exactly correct about how many shows aired in 2013 and 2014. In addition, I was referring to the English speaking market, specifically North America.

[arilando]

Originally Posted by Solace

Right, but you're replying to a post I made at the beginning of last year. You'll have to forgive me if I wasn't exactly correct about how many shows aired in 2013 and 2014.

I was replying to your recent post.

Originally Posted by Solace

In addition, I was referring to the English speaking market, specifically North America.

Well, i'm pretty sure because of Crunchyroll more anime are being licensed than ever before, altough i don't have any exact statistics.

[Solace]

Originally Posted by arilando

I was replying to your recent post.

Which was a response to your post, which was a post responding to a post I made in very early 2014, which was a response to a member who knew what I was talking about.

Googling it really isn't that difficult. Just search for terms like anime peak, or anime crash. Refine as needed.

Well, i'm pretty sure because of Crunchyroll more anime are being licensed than ever before, altough i don't have any exact statistics.

Crunchyroll licenses anime to translate and stream, that's all. They're basically like Netflix, they can only broadcast, they can't do anything else with the license. That's different from the licensing of companies like Viz and Funimation, who can do that and more.

And no, there are fewer licenses than before. You're forgetting that there are mountains of anime that have lapsed licenses from companies either no longer able to afford them or no longer in business. That's in addition to the number of anime that were never licensed in the first place. And even if other companies have picked up those licenses, it doesn't matter if they aren't actually using them.

Streaming licenses like Crunchyroll have helped make currently airing anime easier to watch, because you don't have to wait for fansubs anymore, but that's not a reflection of what the licensing market was pre-2008. They also don't license everything, and it took them a few years after they went legit to get to the number of licenses they are able to acquire today.

No offense but I'm not really interested in pulling out link after link detailing the industry tanking after 2006 up until the modest recovery today, while explaining the differences in how licensing was handled then, how it was affected, and why it is different now, for both here and Japan. This includes counting how many shows are produced each year, the markets they are oriented to, and other detailed discussions on the topic.

My statement was never meant to be examined in detail because at the time I made it, it implied enough to anyone who was knowledgeable about it.

Sorry to come off as gruff, but I honestly don't understand what you hope to gain by asking me about this stuff.

[arilando]

Originally Posted by Solace

Which was a response to your post, which was a post responding to a post I made in very early 2014, which was a response to a member who knew what I was talking about.

Googling it really isn't that difficult. Just search for terms like anime peak, or anime crash. Refine as needed.

I am aware of the decline in anime production after 2006, and it being partially blamed on a decline in overseas revenue.

Originally Posted by Solace

Crunchyroll licenses anime to translate and stream, that's all. They're basically like Netflix, they can only broadcast, they can't do anything else with the license. That's different from the licensing of companies like Viz and Funimation, who can do that and more.

The question is what makes the studios the most money. You can't be sure that an overseas home video release is more profitable than a streaming deal with Crunchyroll or other sites (and a lot of shows get both).

Streaming licenses like Crunchyroll have helped make currently airing anime easier to watch, because you don't have to wait for fansubs anymore, but that's not a reflection of what the licensing market was pre-2008. They also don't license everything, and it took them a few years after they went legit to get to the number of licenses they are able to acquire today.

Surely they license more shows per season than ever got a licensed when DVD releases were the norm.

No offense but I'm not really interested in pulling out link after link detailing the industry tanking after 2006 up until the modest recovery today, while explaining the differences in how licensing was handled then, how it was affected, and why it is different now, for both here and Japan. This includes counting how many shows are produced each year, the markets they are oriented to, and other detailed discussions on the topic.

From all the statistics i have seen it seems to have made a full recovery.

Sorry to come off as gruff, but I honestly don't understand what you hope to gain by asking me about this stuff.

I take a critical approach to anything i read. Considering how popular streaming is at the moment i doubt that "industry in English speaking territories" is in decline. I mean a part of Crunchyroll was recently sold for $100 million.
It would be nice if you could provide a stronger backing for your claim.

[Solace]

Originally Posted by arilando

I am aware of the decline in anime production after 2006, and it being partially blamed on a decline in overseas revenue.

That's one reason, yes.

The question is what makes the studios the most money. You can't be sure that an overseas home video release is more profitable than a streaming deal with Crunchyroll or other sites (and a lot of shows get both).

Can you be sure? What exactly do we analyze here? Gross profits? Lost profits? Profits by year, or by inflation? Potential profits? I honestly have no idea if streaming is more profitable than home video release, especially considering that physical disc release sales aren't doing so well.

Surely they license more shows per season than ever got a licensed when DVD releases were the norm.

As a single license holder? It's possible, but I'm not sure. I'm doubtful.

From all the statistics i have seen it seems to have made a full recovery.

Context is important, which is why I noted when I made that post. At the time, 2012 had just finished. It's now almost halfway through 2015. It's always easier to look back in hindsight when you have more information. I've already said the industry has recovered slightly, but nothing today is happening like the insane bubble that existed then.

Besides, if you can find those statistics, then why are you responding to an old thread to ask me to back up what I said? You should realize how that looks from my perspective. Are you trying to get me to admit I was wrong? You seem to have already come to that conclusion yourself, considering you are arguing it right now.

I take a critical approach to anything i read. Considering how popular streaming is at the moment i doubt that "industry in English speaking territories" is in decline. I mean a part of Crunchyroll was recently sold for $100 million.

I sincerely doubt you dug up an old post because you are interested in critical thought. "At the moment" is not then, it's now. "Recently" was a few months before I made that post, and it has no bearing on how good the industry was/is doing, just that Crunchyroll itself was worth another company purchasing it.

It would be nice if you could provide a stronger backing for your claim.

I'm not going to. Deal with it.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by arilando

Do you have source for that?

Originally Posted by Solace

Which was a response to your post, which was a post responding to a post I made in very early 2014, which was a response to a member who knew what I was talking about.

As the member in question, I want to confirm that yes, I knew what Solace was talking about.

Solace was talking about more than just basic licensing stats, arilando.

I'm pretty sure that Solace was talking about the economic strength of the anime industry as a whole, in the English speaking territories.

It's certainly possible that there has been a complete recovery here, but to know that for sure, we'd probably need more than just basic licensing stats.

Are the cost of licenses the same now as they were previous to the mid-00s anime bubble burst (in English speaking territories)? Is the cost for licensing for DVD/Blu-Ray release the same as the cost for licensing for digital distribution alone? I honestly don't know the answers to those questions, so they're not rhetorical ones.

Is the Crunchyroll sales model more, less, or equally profitable compared to where the DVD/Blu-Ray sales model was at around the time of Code Geass?

These are all questions worth considering, at least.


It's fine that you're raising a counterargument to Solace's point, but yeah, you should keep in mind when Solace's point was made - Back in early 2014. The picture you presented a few posts back had probably not been fully compiled at the time.

Sorry to come off as gruff, but I honestly don't understand what you hope to gain by asking me about this stuff.

In entertainment industry discussions, some take a "bullish" perspective and some take a more "bear market" perspective, to borrow Stock Market terms. It reads to me that arilando and yourself are having that sort of discussion. Optimism vs. caution, to put it in very broad strokes.

I tend to lean more towards caution myself, because when you overestimate how much a particular market is growing, that's when you can get into big trouble.

[relentlessflame]

Internet ad rates are horrible, and even if you consider that Crunchyroll claims to have 500,000 paying subscribers, that's only a few million per month by the time you deduct fees, and by the time you pay for all your fixed costs and split that over all the various licensing companies that have shows hosted there, it's not a lot. Keep in mind that, back in the day, some licensors were asking for over $1 million per show. Disc sales don't bring the revenue they used to either because it's down to either ultra-cheap season/half-season sets, or expensive premium releases. Neither are going to bring in a huge amount of money.

The anime industry in North America seems to have stabilized, but there's no way you could argue that it's of the size/scope that it was back during the bubble -- which, like all bubbles, was inflated by overly-optimistic expectations that eventually had to face stark reality. What we can easily observe is that anime is more available now than it was before, which makes sense due to the much-lower costs of streaming.

And by the way...

Originally Posted by arilando

If you search for how many TV anime began airing a certain year on anidb, you get this result:
2014 201
2013 185
2012 159
2011 145
2010 119
2009 134
[...]

Keep in mind that this doesn't take into account the length of the show either. There are a fair bit more short 3-minute/5-minute shows than there were a few years back. That isn't to say that overall production has not increased, and that the industry hasn't recovered to some degree, but it's a bit more complicated than any single set of stats would demonstrate on its own.

(I too wasn't sure what the point of bumping this thread to ask the question over a year later...)

[TJR]

We have too little information to go on.

The trouble with investment hype is that we're in the midst of a tech bubble spurred on by global smartphone/tablet adoption rates. Not surprisingly, video streaming is one area of interest (besides CrunchyRoll, niche services DramaFever and Viki sold for $140 million and $200 million, respectively!!), so serious money is being thrown around given the potential for explosive growth.