Fansub hits, dvd flops? I'm curious.

[Kamui4356]

Originally Posted by DaFool

http://www.animenation.net/news/askjohn.php?id=1226

I derive from this that most R1 DVD sales are from dubbed (i.e. televised) exposure, not subtitled (fansub) exposure.

I don't doubt that. In fact, if you take that 11.5% I got for Inuyasha, 5750 people bought the dvds because they saw the series fansubbed, compaired to 24,150 who saw it on TV, assuming bayoab's numbers are close to accurate. The numbers are higher because a lot more people watch anime on tv than fansubbed.

However, that does not translate into dubs being much more popular than subs. TV is where most fans are first exposed to anime, which by default means dubbed. However, they don't really have much choice in this. Many of those people go on to prefer subbed.

Plus, he's using examples of kiddie series like pokemon, which are not marketed towards anime fans, to prove his point. Those series aren't dub only because they didn't think anime fans would buy the dvds for the subs, they're dub only because the companies decided they wouldn't even bother trying to sell to anime fans.

http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/poll.php?id=65
http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/poll.php?id=66

These polls from animenewsnetwork show 51.7% would not absolutely not buy a dvd without subs, compaired to 4.5% of people saying the same for dubs. I doubt they're accurate, but they should be a decent indicator that subs are at least popular among people who identify themselves as anime fans.
edit:

Originally Posted by hooliganj

(WTH is a sheeple, anyway?)

sheeple- (n.) A happy little consumer who does whatever corporations want without thinking, like a sheep being herded.

At least that's how I interpreted it.

That said, it seems the current trend is away from region codes. Blu-ray has half the regions as dvd, and I'd expect hd-dvd to be similiar to blu-ray in that regard. Remember, it might make money for Hollywood, but having different regions doesn't help electronic companies at all.

[hooliganj]

Face it folks, we, the posters at this fansub-watching forum, are not the market these companies are aiming for. ADV is the only company that tries to sell itself as a "by fans for fans" prospect, which is why they find themselves at odds with the fansubbing scene. Everyone else (and ADV too, at times, which only shows their hypocrisy) is aiming for the much broader market of the general TV and home theater viewing audience. So, as much as we may wish that these companies would pander to our every whim, the truth is we just don't have that kind of financial influence.

Originally Posted by Vexx

1) You're a happily programmed little sheeple then... I'm sure the corporations love you Corporations will work under whatever rules are in place as long as they can make a profit as they always have.

Who's being the "happily programmed little sheeple" here? (WTH is a sheeple, anyway?) Corporations tolerate rules when they have to, and change them when they can. Region locks are an excellent example - what started out as a corporate policy to increase sales potential and protect localized price-fixing became enforcable by law thanks to the efforts of companies who wanted to protect their profits. LytHka isn't being naive for supporting a corporation's right to defend their bottom line; that's how the free market works.

To approach the original poster's question: BT numbers are at best an early warning indicator for a series. I'm sure that any show that manages 50k+ downloads a week gets noticed, but each company has their own criteria that a show must meet before being considered. As has been stated by both sides of the argument that has emerged in this thread, there are many other factors that contribute to the actual sales performance.

[Vexx]

hooliganj -
You've confused the concept of "corporation" as it currently exists with the "free market" as it currently doesn't --- but thats not a topic for this forum. Read up on the history of the concept of "corporations" and their so-called "rights" and how the phrase "free market" is often misused to protect the antics of these entities as they currently exist. Region codes are an fundamental example of how the market isn't free but rather an example of distorting the playing field. A "sheeple" is a person who has been successfully programmed to "drink the kool-aid" (believe the mantra without question).

Your remark about the whom many of the companies are marketing towards is, unfortunately, correct. Also, ADV not only manages to be at odds with fansubbing but has some seriously poor customer service issues in general. Your last paragraph summarizes my view on the topic perfectly.

(sorry, I'm one of those people who read William F Buckley *and* Noam Chomsky so I have rather acidic attitudes about corporate behavior - having worked within corporate structures for so many years)

[rooboy]

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/poll.php?id=65
http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/poll.php?id=66

These polls from animenewsnetwork show 51.7% would not absolutely not buy a dvd without subs, compaired to 4.5% of people saying the same for dubs. I doubt they're accurate, but they should be a decent indicator that subs are at least popular among people who identify themselves as anime fans.

And of course the vast majority of casual anime fans who purchase anime and actually like the dubbed versions logged on to animenewsnetwork to take this poll.....

No bias in that whatsoever, nope nope.....

Not trying to give you a hard time, but that's like putting up a poll at animesuki and saying that 98% of anime fans are watching fansubbed anime. It might be true, but that's a really dubious way of finding out.

EDIT: Is that Sheeple with an "ell" or Sheepie with an "eye"? Sheepie with an "eye" seems to make more sense to me, but it looks like an "ell".

EDIT 2: I'm actually amazed that 4.5% of people who go to animenewsnetwork actually voted for keeping dubs.

[Kamui4356]

Originally Posted by rooboy666

And of course the vast majority of casual anime fans who purchase anime and actually like the dubbed versions logged on to animenewsnetwork to take this poll.....

No bias in that whatsoever, nope nope.....

Not trying to give you a hard time, but that's like putting up a poll at animesuki and saying that 98% of anime fans are watching fansubbed anime. It might be true, but that's a really dubious way of finding out.

EDIT: Is that Sheeple with an "ell" or Sheepie with an "eye"? Sheepie with an "eye" seems to make more sense to me, but it looks like an "ell".

EDIT 2: I'm actually amazed that 4.5% of people who go to animenewsnetwork actually voted for keeping dubs.

From what I've seen, ann has more dub supporters than animesuki. Also, the polls on ann are open to all readers, not just members of the forums, and are originally listed on the main page. I stand by my choice to use it as a source. I wanted to include information from animeondvd as well, but I wasn't having much luck there. If you can give a less biased potental source, I'll be glad to look into it. In any event, it's probably quite a bit more accurate than random numbers that are admitted to be "pure speculation".

[LytHka]

@Kamui4356: You're forgetting that the online anime community, be it ANN or Animesuki is still pretty "elitist" compared to the "offline" anime community which is by far the largest. And the offline anime community isn't only fans gathering in anime clubs but also simply fans watching anime on CN. So, yes, those polls are very much in favor of the sub-suporters, be them on fansubs or DVDs. The offline anime community is 99% loyal to dubs.

About the whole "sheeple" thingy: I am by no means naive, but it is in *MY* interest that more anime is produced and that I may buy DVDs and merchandise that *I* like. I got to know that american anime distributors are pretty much all ignoramuses, plus their products suck, so my collection of goods is 95% from the R2 Japanese region, DVDs and other stuff, my money goes directly to the Japanese artists. I *choose* to pay more, because it is in my interest to satisfy my ego with buying quality products. And I really don't care what price they set up on the items, or just how much other expenses (custom charges + taxes) I'll get when importing, as long as I get those. And that's what being a fan is all about. Certainly, it is by no means fan-like for your own ass to get away as comfy and cheap as possible. Sure, I'd love the idea of R2 stuff sold in a shop directly under my house for a few nickles, but I am by no means a hero to make that happen. Best of luck to Vexx and everyone else on that.

[dan88]

One day when Anime is shown regularly on TV (like in the USA and Germany) we won't need fansubs to promote anime.

However, no matter how much anime fans beg, there does not seem like there will be much of an increase in anime shown on TV in the near future.

It is illegal for shops to sell imported Region 1 DVD's or sell "multi region" DVD players.
We can privately import both over the internet for private personal use.
However many people feel that we are destroying the anime industry by importing directly from foreign countries like the USA or Japan.

[rooboy]

Originally Posted by LytHka

@Kamui4356: You're forgetting that the online anime community, be it ANN or Animesuki is still pretty "elitist" compared to the "offline" anime community which is by far the largest. And the offline anime community isn't only fans gathering in anime clubs but also simply fans watching anime on CN. So, yes, those polls are very much in favor of the sub-suporters, be them on fansubs or DVDs. The offline anime community is 99% loyal to dubs.

Yeah, that's pretty much what I was saying too, but apparently that's all null and void because animenewsnetwork is slightly less elitist than animesuki.

[Kamui4356]

Originally Posted by rooboy666

Yeah, that's pretty much what I was saying too, but apparently that's all null and void because animenewsnetwork is slightly less elitist than animesuki.

Ok, what the hell do you people want me to do, stand in the anime section of BestBuy and ask anyone who picks up a dvd if they prefer dubs or subs? I picked a site that isn't targeted at the fansub community, and I felt had the best chance of taking the opinions of casual fans into account. I even admitted the numbers were likely inaccurate and could only be used to say subs are popular. If you can find a better source, let me know and I'll consider that as well. I'd much rather use a "biased" poll than make numbers up, or use sub vs dub vhs sales, which were effected by what are, in my opinion, much larger factors of price and availability. I can only work with the numbers I have, and these are the best I've found.

[hooliganj]

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

Ok, what the hell do you people want me to do, stand in the anime section of BestBuy and ask anyone who picks up a dvd if they prefer dubs or subs? I picked a site that isn't targeted at the fansub community, and I felt had the best chance of taking the opinions of casual fans into account. I even admitted the numbers were likely inaccurate and could only be used to say subs are popular. If you can find a better source, let me know and I'll consider that as well. I'd much rather use a "biased" poll than make numbers up, or use sub vs dub vhs sales, which were effected by what are, in my opinion, much larger factors of price and availability. I can only work with the numbers I have, and these are the best I've found.

You face the same problem here that political pollsters do, which is that any poll is weighted by the simple fact that the respondants are all people who care enough to waste their time on the poll. Even the ANN poll is biased towards people who care enough about anime to follow genre news, and also within that readership, in that a more casual fan, one who would have little tolerance for foreign languages in their viewing habits, is less likely to answer.

Sales are really the only way to guage actual consumer attitudes, and even then the corrupting factors you mentioned prevent a meaningful conclusion from being drawn. It may be that we'll never know for sure, but anecdotal evidence would suggest that most people prefer hearing their own language when watching TV.

Which leads me to the biggest question - how did this thread turn into a sub v dub debate?

[DaFool]

Which leads me to the biggest question - how did this thread turn into a sub v dub debate?

Because most DVDs are bought for their dubs. While most fansubs are downloaded for their subs. Which is somewhat as related (or non-related) as the correlation between bittorrent statistics and DVD sales statistics.

[zalas]

Originally Posted by Mentar

That TV shows tend to sell much better on DVD only underscores _my_ theory which says that free and easy public availability per se helps DVD sales instead of hurting them.

You keep sticking by your theory that free and easy public availability helps DVD sales. That is very true of TV broadcasts, but that does not apply so cleanly to fansub downloads. While it's free and easily available(assuming you know how to operate a computer well enough to get BitTorrent downloads, etc.), fansubs have the added "benefit" of easy archival. It's very easy to hold on to a fansub forever and watch it as many times as one would wishes. It requires a bit more effort on the part of the TV viewer to get a tape and record it. By the time the viewer is able to watch a fansub, he/she is already able to hang onto it forever. By the time a TV viewer is able to watch a broadcast (assuming he/she wasn't time shifting it because he/she is asleep/at work when it's broadcast), he/she still has to go through the extra step of operating a VCR or PVR to be able to hang on to the show to rewatch. Hence, while fansubs are free and fairly easy to obtain, they are also easy to archive. The big question is not whether they are free or easy to obtain, but whether it's easy to use them as substitutes for DVDs which you can replay at your leisure as many times you want. There's simply just way too many factors to consider to be able to positively say that fansubs help DVD sales.

For TV, the majority of the effort in the archival process is not actually enabling viewing, but enabling recording. For fansubs, the majority of the effort is in the viewing (and subsequent easy archival) itself.

One thing that's interesting, though, is that Japan has started to offer free streams of some shows, like Shana. They seem to be of low enough quality that I suspect the people who buy DVDs would probably end up buying them anyway even if they could streamrip the content. So if the Japanese companies start offering super high quality non-streaming content (technical issues aside), I think that would start eating into their DVD sales, as you start getting to the population who thinks "it's good enough to not warrant a DVD purchase."

[Vexx]

Definitely some marketing truth to that as the "mp3 at 128/192" seems to be good enough to listen to <insert mind-numbing corporate pop of choice> for most folks.

I honestly don't have an answer to how visual entertainment should adapt to the new information flow models - but I do know restricting those models is no more effective than the whale lamp industry trying to have electricity outlawed

Cripes, people seem willing to watch tv on those pathetic 2" screen iffypods....

[DaFool]

Zalas' argument holds for explaining why people who've watched Friends or Sex in the City would buy the DVDs in order to archive. These are mainly nontechnical people.

But how about the nuts who program their VCR or TIVO to catch something on public television or a marathon on some specialist channel? This is similar to the hard-disk-recording otakus in Japan who provide us with the content in the first place. For these technical people, the archival occurs automatically with the viewing (just like fansubs). I think when these people then trade their caps with each other on Winny, it may cut on sales in Japan.

[hooliganj]

Originally Posted by zalas

For TV, the majority of the effort in the archival process is not actually enabling viewing, but enabling recording. For fansubs, the majority of the effort is in the viewing (and subsequent easy archival) itself.

TV producers tried to sue to stop the production of VCRs back in the 80s, claiming the exact same copyright protection that they are now. Ultimately the case led the Supreme Court to establish the doctrine of "fair use" that we still use today.

SONY CORP. v. UNIVERSAL CITY STUDIOS, INC., 464 U.S. 417 (1984)

[DaFool]

Imagine if it had been Sony Corp. vs. Columbia Pictures / Tristar back then. LOL!
The problem now is that the hardware makers and content rights holders have strong relationships, and now share the same goal of ripping the consumer with DRM.

But that's another topic altogether.

[Dural]

Hajime no Ippo, I believe, suffered this fate

[bayoab]

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

I don't doubt that. In fact, if you take that 11.5% I got for Inuyasha, 5750 people bought the dvds because they saw the series fansubbed, compaired to 24,150 who saw it on TV, assuming bayoab's numbers are close to accurate. The numbers are higher because a lot more people watch anime on tv than fansubbed.

Except, the ratio is 1:5 for buying vs 1:2 for exposure. There is still a gap there.

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

Second, even if the percentage of sub watchers was correct, there is no reason to believe fansub watchers will only watch subbed dvds, and tv watchers will only watch dubbed. There are a lot of people who watch anime on tv then buy the dvds so they can watch it subbed. There are also a lot of people who download fansubs who buy dvds so they can watch it dubbed. The lines between sub watchers and dub watchers aren't as clear cut as you seem to think.

That is why I reduced the pure sub watchers to 10%. The crossover is immeasurable with bilingual discs. And the last informal study of the difference was done on the cards inside those DVDs that the companies want you to send back. There is no reason to suddenly suggest that dub watchers are more likely to send back the card than sub watchers.

Originally Posted by Mentar

That's the same thing. The ADV linear channel is a complete non-factor. ... The implicit and logical conclusion would be that easy and free availability would have to be harmful to DVD sales. However, empirical data proves (via sales numbers of especially easy-free TV shows) that this blanket claim is FALSE.

Yes, because the number of people who get the ADV free linear channel is a very very small number. This therefore makes their overall effect negligable. The difference here is that there are different groups that are affected. You cannot just pool all the fans and consider them to act the same way. See below...

Now if you suddenly turn around and claim that this was just ADV's opinion and not yours, why did you open up with "Completely incorrect", huh? Don't blame ME for misunderstanding your positions when you're lacking consistency and precision in your own statements. And just for the record, even after rereading your posts two more times, I'm still unsure what YOUR theory is, then.

Every single company has said at least once that they have been hurt by fansubs.

My position is not that fansubs are inherently evil or anything to that effect. My position is that more people who get fansubs need to buy anime goods.

"Certainly"? How do you know that? And are you trying to construe some wacky position "dub watchers = good, sub watchers = bad"? I'm just asking before you cry once more about me "twisting" things.

Nope. Neither is good or bad. The only thing I am insinuating is that dub watchers are more likely to buy a disc than a sub watcher. (Sub watchers are more likely to buy R2s however.)

Again, whether they buy the DVDs to listen to the dub, or to put them away on their shelves shrinkwrapped is TOTALLY irrelevant to the labels. What counts for them is the SALE itself, not what people do with it.

Yes, but if one audiance is more likely to buy it, then they matter more to you.

Do people like this exist? Certainly, but they're much more rare than you're painting them - at least in MY experience. Even assuming that they are, that alone doesn't prove that fansubs hurt DVD sales at all. This is the only group which negatively effects DVD sales:

You think that the (-) group is bigger than the (+) ones? Based on my experiences, I strongly doubt that. But I know for a fact that the anime market wouldn't be remotely as big as it is today if it wasn't for the fansub world.

I know someone who when he found out about fansubs stopped buying DVDs. I know a number of people who refuse to buy R1s because fansubs exist. There are people online who we tell them to buy things then spot them walking into another channel and looking for the same file. These people definitely exist. The number of people who buy DVDs is about 20% of those who talk in 1 channel I am in.

Who are those groups? How about you define them first? Which 2 groups out of which 15 matter why?

You take all combinations of [fan sub|dub|buy|other] (2^4)

And no, not EVERYONE buys something. I'm sure that there's some l33ches who don't spend a single penny on anime. But most people I know do - they buy their shares of DVDs, manga, OSTs and whatnot. I'd venture a guess that nearly everyone reading this board will watch fansubs. I'd also venture a guess that you do, too.

Now, are you a good guy or a bad one?

Or should I have asked "do you like dubs, or do you watch fansubs"?

I hate dubs in general. I watch subs and I buy DVDs of series I like. (I have not bought series because of subs too and bought series from seeing the dub or without seeing anything.)

[Demongod86]

I really think that piracy does not and WILL NOT ever hurt sales so dramatically that it will ever be a problem for any sort of producers. Eminem has made billions of dollars, with or without people DLing his music for free. Ditto with any other well-known artists, and ditto with well-known anime. The companies that harp about piracy are like women who preach abortion because of random acts of violence rapes...theoretically big issues? Yes. Statistically big issues? No.

And how can the companies claim lost sales from people that wouldn't buy the anime anyway? I know I don't have $20 to shell out for every DVD of 3 episodes. I mean hell, just to get gundam seed+GSD on dvd, that'd be 100/3x20=around $660.00...that's absolutely ridiculous.

[xris]

Originally Posted by Demongod86

Eminem has made billions of dollars, with or without people DLing his music for free. Ditto with any other well-known artists, and ditto with well-known anime.

And how can the companies claim lost sales from people that wouldn't buy the anime anyway? I know I don't have $20 to shell out for every DVD of 3 episodes.

Comparing the international music distribution industry with a niche market like anime is a misnomer.

And as for cost of anime, people seem to have the strange impression that all the $20/$25/$30 DVD retail price goes to the anime company.

Let's look at a typical American anime DVD, retail cost of $30. Now typically the Retailer will buy the DVD from a Distributor who buys it from the Manufacturer. As a rule of thumb, you can double to cost at each stage, so if the end cost is $30 then the following applies

Manufacturer sells it for $7.50 (to the Distributor)
Distributor sells it for $15 (to the Retailer)
Retailer sells it for $30 (to the Public)

For example, if you take an on-line retailer that offers decent discounts, they typically sell a $30 at discount at around $19 (a 35% discount). They must still make profit even on this so they must be able to purchase it for less (my example above shows the Retailer purchases it for about $15 and so can "afford" to sell it still for profit at $19). On-line shops can offer greater discount than brick and mortar shops due to lower overheads (smaller staff, cheaper rent, etc.).

The point to make here is that the anime company (i.e. the Manufacturer) only gets something like $7/$8 for the "$30" DVD. Out of this they need to pay for the manufacturing costs, the license cost, advertisement, Voice Actors, staff salary, etc., etc. and show a profit! I wonder if they can actually make a $1 profit per DVD, and how many DVDs do you think they sell, it's not that great since it's still a niche market.

Originally Posted by Mentar

As I pointed out before, TV airings are only stronger forms of fansubs. We're talking about fansubs hurting DVD sales here, meaning people who would have bought a DVD, but did not because of the existence of fansubs.

I don't think this looks at the entire picture. A point that's missed about such claims concerning TV airings is the fact they generate income for the anime. While they may be considered "free" by many people who watch, the series still generates income via commercials, DVD sales are not the only factor. I think there is a valid argument that fansubs are hurting the TV ratings of anime, and this is directly effecting the perceived "worth" of a series when the rights are purchased by the TV company. If anything, I consider fansubs contributing to this more (in a negative sense) than fansubs have an effect on DVD sales.

Originally Posted by Mentar

That TV shows tend to sell much better on DVD only underscores _my_ theory which says that free and easy public availability per se helps DVD sales instead of hurting them.

The reasons people purchase DVDs of series already shown on TV (be it anime or any sort of show) varies, I don't see there is a simple case as to why different people do or do not purchase DVDs. One example of why people purchase DVDs is the ease to watch (or rewatch) such a show when and where they like. It's true that they could tape the show when it was originally shown on TV but it seems most people who do tape such shows do not keep the tape for years ready to watch again and again. Even back before DVDs, why did so may people purchase videos of movies when "all they needed to do" was wait until a TV station broadcast the movie again and tape it then. One reason is that if you own a (purchased) copy you could watch it when you liked without having to rely on noticing the next time it was broadcast.

Plus there are many "problem" with fansubs (from the industry's point of view), more so since they are now digital. It's easier to distribute fansubs (in a digital form) than it is to distribute video tapes. The quality doesn't degrade when you make a copy nor does time effect the quality (unlike tape), storage is in many ways easier. The list goes on.

So yes, while TV shows do increase the sales of DVDs, at least the TV show does generate revenue for the original show. This is not true for fansubs, they generate no such income.

Sorry, this discussion is going round in circles again. Time to close the thread as it drifted far from the original topic.