Brexit Vote

[Dop]

So with Stuart out I can't see Sajid getting any further (though the only good thing about him getting to be PM is how much it'd infuriate the far right), and suspect Jeremy Rhyming-Slang hasn't a chance either as it'd be a gift to the media.

Suspect it'll finally come down to Gove vs Johnson, dumb vs dumber.

The whole no deal lunatic wing is the worrying part. They hate foreigners and the EU JUST SO MUCH they'd wipe out several industries and the UK economy out of some insane dream of empire.
I've often thought that what the tories REALLY hate about the EU is that they're not in charge of it.

[James Rye]

And Stewart is out. Given how ten of his votes disappeared over night I guess this means they were BoJo votes in order to eliminate Raab to grab his voters.

[Ithekro]

Come the 2065 retrospective:

"And tonight on BBC 4, 'The British Isles: England and the European countries formerly known as the United Kingdom' at 9:35pm"

[judasmartel]

Originally Posted by Dop

The whole no deal lunatic wing is the worrying part. They hate foreigners and the EU JUST SO MUCH they'd wipe out several industries and the UK economy out of some insane dream of empire.

LONG LIVE BRITANNIA!

[Guardian Enzo]

If BoJo is smart he’ll call a snap election for September. He has everything to gain - Corbyn is unelectable and will still be dragging Labour through the hell of murky indecision. And he should want an election before the scope of the Brexit disaster and his own general incompetence have become clear. If he does that the Tories will win big.

[Arabesque]

That's what May assumed as well.

I fear that the reality is that the country is far too divided to have a clear result like that materialize. The scope of the Brexit disaster is already clear for all to see, its just many have already decided it was worth it to get out of the EU, disaster it would be for the future of the country.

[Dop]

There's always the fear that Farage's Brexit Party would split the Tory vote, to a lesser extent the Labour vote, and that'd just wind up with another hung parliament. Which is another reason they're going to cling to power as long as possible.

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by Arabesque

That's what May assumed as well.

I fear that the reality is that the country is far too divided to have a clear result like that materialize. The scope of the Brexit disaster is already clear for all to see, its just many have already decided it was worth it to get out of the EU, disaster it would be for the future of the country.

Things have changed since May called that election. Brexit faultlines have hardened, and Labour's position (ROFL) has become completely untenable. This election will be fought on Brexit, period, and Labour will lose many times more remain votes than BoJo would lose leave votes to Farage (they're basically two facets of the same poltiician).

The longer Johnson waits, the worse it gets for him. He'll actually have to make something happen with Brexit, and deal with the reality of the damage it does to the economy. Labour may actually change leadership after whatever form of hard Brexit goes through without any input from them. He'd be a fool not to call an election at the first possible opportunity.

[Dop]

Colour me wrong, it's Johnson vs Hunt.

That's the UK finished then.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Dop

There's always the fear that Farage's Brexit Party would split the Tory vote, to a lesser extent the Labour vote, and that'd just wind up with another hung parliament. Which is another reason they're going to cling to power as long as possible.

I see a hung Parliament as well except for one scenario I'll mention in a moment.

In 2017, the Tories won 317 seats, eight short of a majority. The DUP's ten MPs made up the deficit.

Now let's imagine a 2019 or 2020 general election. If the 2019 EU results were extended to a general election, the Tories would be smashed. Farage and his Brexit party took nearly 40% of the MEP seats, mostly at the expense of the Tories who placed a miserable fourth.

People vote differently in elections that have more limited effects like by-elections or elections to the EU than they do in general elections. It's easier for people to defect when they think their vote matters less. So I don't think Farage would win 40% of the seats in a UK general election, but 30% doesn't seem all that impossible.

The LibDems face their usual disadvantage under the first-past-the-post system the UK (and the US) uses. They might get 15% of the vote (compared to 20% in the EU election), and perhaps bump their total of MPs from 12 to 20. I'd expect the SNP to bounce back, too, and recover some of the 21 seats they lost in 2017.

Then with a bit of rounding we'd have

Brexit          200
LibDem           20
SNP              50

for a total of 270 seats. That leaves just 380 for Labour and Conservative/DUP. A 325-seat majority seems pretty much out of the question.

Tories + Brexit could well equal a majority. Imagine the negotiations between Johnson and Farage over any coalition agreement.

If the general election takes place after October 31st, and the UK has left the EU, will the Brexit party continue to exist? Perhaps Farage and company would rejoin the Tories in that case?

TL;DR…

My instincts when it comes to hung Parliaments

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[Guardian Enzo]

First of all, the Brexit Party will follow the UKIP pattern of faring far worse in national elections than European "protest" elections. Second, with Johnson at the helm Brexit voters will have basically Farage - a dumbass right-wing populist promising hard Brexit. I wouldn't expect the BP to get more than 8-10 seats. They might cost the Tories some marginal seats with a vote split, but they won't be a major factor in terms of the makeup of parliament itself. In fact I think the LibDems are a far greater threat to a paralyzed and marginalized Labour Party.

[James Rye]

Originally Posted by Dop

Colour me wrong, it's Johnson vs Hunt.

That's the UK finished then.

Ofc it would be Johnson vs Hunt. BoJo could CHOSE his opponent! Just look at the ten vote drop of Stewart and the 4 vote drop of Javidh and Gove after overtaking not getting more votes from Javidh voters than Hunt which is BS. There was so much tactical voting going on that in a regular, normal election somebody would have called the police. Which should have happened anyway given how many MPS were threaten by their own members to vote their way or else...

[Guardian Enzo]

If there were any doubt of Boris' win, today's events should lock it down for sure. Tory voters will eat that shit up and love him even more.

[James Rye]

Looks like UK found its new role as 51th state or little pet of Trump.^^

[Ithekro]

Reverse colonization?

[MeoTwister5]

Is this about the ambassador resigning because the PM-to-be sided with Trump over him?

[Guardian Enzo]

I believe the phrase you’re looking for is “threw him under the bus”.

[MeoTwister5]

Eh the idiom is pointless when the entire country is already under said bus.

[Guardian Enzo]

Well, the next PM is apparently quite a fan of buses.

[SeijiSensei]

Have the rows over Tory Islamophobia and Labour anti-Semitism been designed to push the actual issues posed by Brexit off the agenda? I suspect neither major party really wants to talks about Brexit given how it divides both their coalitions. So they end up in name-calling spats instead.

Update: https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/201...re-cannot-hold