2023-04-05, 02:33 | Link #1281 | |
Sleepy Lurker
Graphic Designer
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Nun'yabiznehz
Age: 38
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Also, NATO candidacy isn't that straightforward. Sweden and Finland were actually in good standing with their Western neighbors for a long time and it's only Turkey blocking the door that slowed down this fast-tracked induction process. Ukraine vied for it for years after the 2014 invasion and NATO, in response, shuffled its feet for a number of reasons - to avoid goading Russia into a broader military or economic response...and wariness towards Ukraine's endemic governmental corruption issues. How do you think Lukashenko measures up compared to a pre-2022 Ukraine that had its big pool of oligarchs and bribers? Think NATO will see him as a reformed leader (don't forget - he's still known as "Europe's last dictator") that's seen the light? Nope.
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2023-04-05, 03:48 | Link #1283 |
Sleepy Lurker
Graphic Designer
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Nun'yabiznehz
Age: 38
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Provided they can spare the manpower, and I'm not too sure about that. While I do not know how many reserves it still has, its current recruitment numbers and its unit regeneration capability, the UA has been subjected to combat attrition for a while already and it's still got three regions to retake. They'll need every man in the fight during the spring offensive, on top of (less critical, but still numerous) personnel needed to hold the other borders (the North, for one) fast. And that's not taking into account Russian counter-offensives and escalation -- and the price that comes therewith.
No, what is of bigger interest is how the Belarussian military will react to a hypothetical takeover, when they've already got Russian boots on the ground mingling with them. One can fantasize about an ouster of Lukashenko by a military junta followed by a Ferdinand Marcos-style exile, but I'm not holding my hopes up -- the Belarussian armed forces could've sided with the political opposition during the demonstrations that preceded the 2022 invasion, but they didn't. I do see however see Lukashenko stalling Moscow for time to prevent the country from getting subsumed into the greater Russian body.
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2023-04-05, 10:33 | Link #1284 | |||
formerly ogon bat
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Mexico
Age: 53
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So yeah, there are russian boots on the ground, but are easily identifiable and can be arrested on short notice because they are not highly motivated to do anything else, see Armenia for an example. Quote:
The simple reason NATO would not give membership to Ukraine after 2014 is precisely because they were already invaded and theoretically any new government could trigger article 5, triggering a direct confrontation with russia, a no no. Quote:
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2023-04-05, 11:45 | Link #1285 |
Sensei, aishite imasu
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Hong Kong Shatterdome
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The little green men contingency has greater problems than Russia not being able to spare the proffessional operators to pull that stunt, but it is an issue. The Russian takeover of Crimea partly worked because the Russians managed the takeover smoothly and professionally enough, that Russian control over the peninsula provided an appearance of stability that looked more attractive than the Chaos and uncertainty going on with Maidan on the mainland.
Those circumstances don't apply to Belarus today. Belarus being annexed doesn't offer its citizens even a promise of stability, but an express ticket to getting fed into the Ukraine blender. This is pretty awkward for the Belarusian government since their own military is one of the demographics that doesn't want to fight. An FSB backed LGM type operation won't work if a bunch of Belarusian generals decide that a handful of Spetnaz and FSB spooks are easier to defeat with tanks than Javelin and HIMARS equipped Ukrainians.
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2023-04-09, 08:08 | Link #1286 |
ARCAM Spriggan agent
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https://armourersbench.com/2023/01/1...r-rpg-warhead/
Armorer's Bench has a page (and YT video) on the use of the makeshift fire extinguisher as an improvised RPG warhead by the Sheikh Mansur Battalion.
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2023-04-13, 04:06 | Link #1287 | |
Carbon
Join Date: Nov 2003
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ts-2023-04-12/
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2023-04-13, 22:32 | Link #1288 |
ARCAM Spriggan agent
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https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/st...95415725187077
The guy who posted the tweet (He's active military in the Ukrainian military) translated unencrypted Russian Army chatter that their troops fighting can't retreat.
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2023-04-14, 00:46 | Link #1289 | |
formerly ogon bat
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Mexico
Age: 53
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2023-04-14, 17:17 | Link #1290 |
books-eater youkai
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Betweem wisdom and insanity
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Airman suspected of leaking secret US documents hit with federal charges
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/man...rt-2023-04-14/ Can someone tell me how a U.S. Air National Guard got his hand on that kind of intel? The info about the situation on Ukraine ( like th actual number of KIA on both side or the level of Ukraine's stock of SAM) I could maybe see how, but the more geopolitical stuff seem a bit more of a far stretch.
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2023-04-15, 21:38 | Link #1291 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2006
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2023-04-16, 01:37 | Link #1293 |
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2014
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It also depends on his job. Someone on Youtube says the 21 year old is an IT guy. The information is not confirmed. The case is strikingly similar to the story of a 22 year old who sold information to Wikileaks for transgender surgery and then he was later saved by the former president. The reason on the news was that frontline guys complained that they were in dangerous situation when intel was not shared with them.
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2023-04-16, 02:55 | Link #1294 | |
Sleepy Lurker
Graphic Designer
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Nun'yabiznehz
Age: 38
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And yes I know it is no consolation.
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2023-04-16, 17:27 | Link #1296 |
formerly ogon bat
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Mexico
Age: 53
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Back in the XX century, my answer would have been "That is impossible, there must be some kind of error or conspiracy behind". But we are now in the XXI century, so the only answer I can muster is "Duuuude, it is 'murrica we are talking about, the government is snafu, as expected".
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2023-04-20, 00:05 | Link #1299 |
ARCAM Spriggan agent
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Can only find this video on reddit.
Someone in Kyiv recorded this strange green light. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...light_in_kyiv/
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2023-04-20, 14:32 | Link #1300 | |
Sensei, aishite imasu
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Hong Kong Shatterdome
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Forbes has an intersting article on how imported high end ball bearings are potentially an even bigger bottleneck to Russias tank production/refurbishment than even sanctioned western electronics. And may be a reason we've seen this recent transition at least on a modest scale to much lower and less mechanicall complex tanks like the T-62 andT-54
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