Brexit Vote

[Guardian Enzo]

What Corbyn wants and what he can get away with publicly supporting are two different things.

Has Johnson won a single vote in parliament yet?

[monir]

UK PM sends unsigned letter to EU asking for Brexit delay

ahahahaha...

[SeijiSensei]

An insightful observation from John LeCarre, famous British spy novelist, about the sort of Tory who loves Brexit:

On nostalgia for the British Empire

There is this extraordinary elite that we have to deal with in our country of wealthy, landed people ... who nurse really very silly and completely out of date nostalgia about the war, about empire. And it's quite extraordinary that they still impel us, they still actually give the voice to so much of the misleading propaganda that is being pumped out at the moment.

https://www.npr.org/2019/10/19/77108...g-in-the-field

Boris Johnson is the twentieth (of 55) Prime Ministers to have attended Eton.

[DracoS]

Meanwhile some of the EUs fan seem to want a one world goverment, becuse the British Empire worked out so well.

[monir]

One world government will happen, especially when space exploration isn't a meme anymore. That's when we encounter alien race full of waifus much superior to the human counterpart. Humanity, then, will have no other choice but to set aside their differences to come together to work toward the single goal of attaining better alien waifus.

It's happening in the not so distant future.

British empire on the other hand is acquired through force and misery like all other empires in human history. They tend not to last forever. People don't like being miserable for too long for some reason.

[James Rye]

Wow, Boris deal got through. A deal worse for UK econmoy than May's and while he is in a minority government after throwing out the "traitors" of his party and tossing the DUP under the bus. I have absolutely no idea how British MPs tick, they must be crazy Mofos. And now Bojo put his deal on "pause", lol! xD

[Dextro]

So... Referendums in Scotland and N. Ireland when?

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Dextro

So... Referendums in Scotland and N. Ireland when?

Northern Ireland's best option is to be annexed by a newly-independent Scotland and together the two re-join the EU. The Irish land border would once again not matter if all of Eire belongs. The Welsh might join as well. I do think it all starts in Scotland though.

It's not obvious that Scotland would want to adopt its Irish brother. GDP per capita in Northern Ireland is just half that for Scotland. On the other hand, an all-EU "bridge" around the UK connecting northern Europe and Ireland via Scotland could prove commercially valuable. Shipping and dock work provide jobs for people with low skills.

Post-Brexit UK could become just England and maybe Wales surrounded by EU members. Sure the UK could try to recreate its naval prowess and prosper from a raft of westward-looking trade agreements. I'm pretty dubious that the UK's future.

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by James Rye

Wow, Boris deal got through. A deal worse for UK econmoy than May's and while he is in a minority government after throwing out the "traitors" of his party and tossing the DUP under the bus. I have absolutely no idea how British MPs tick, they must be crazy Mofos. And now Bojo put his deal on "pause", lol! xD

Not really. A lot of thoese "yes" votes were given knowing they were about to scupper his timetable. Problem is he'll get his election now, crush Labour and probably emerge with a Tory majority that would pass this deal and worse.

[kari-no-sugata II]

So what do we think? Is Labour supporting the election a case of turkeys voting for Christmas? Or is BoJo going to flop? Current polls suggest it'll be a large Conservative majority.

Answers on a postcard...

[Guardian Enzo]

Milne and Murphy, Corbyn's personal axis of evil, overrode the shadow cabinet and convinced him to back Johnson here. A large Tory majority seems inevitable but Milne and Murphy will get the Brexit they so badly want.

[kari-no-sugata II]

Originally Posted by kari-no-sugata II

For what this might mean for actual seats:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Matches my intuitive guess - the Conservatives could win a majority with their current numbers.

Wonder how accurate this will turn out to be - the above page currently says:
Current Prediction: Conservative majority 76

By "accurate" I mean both in terms of "how will votes convert into seats" and "how accurate are the polls" (last time out the polls had a bias towards the Conservatives but not an unusually large one by historical standards)

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

Not really. A lot of thoese "yes" votes were given knowing they were about to scupper his timetable. Problem is he'll get his election now, crush Labour and probably emerge with a Tory majority that would pass this deal and worse.

If the British people voted for Johnson, then I would say it is fair Britain gets a hard brexit. That would be credible as a people's choice to punch themselves in the face. The rest of us could only watch.

[kari-no-sugata II]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

If the British people voted for Johnson, then I would say it is fair Britain gets a hard brexit. That would be credible as a people's choice to punch themselves in the face. The rest of us could only watch.

I would expect him to campaign on the deal he recently negotiated and that it would be in the manifesto.

If that isn't the case... then I think a lot of people would suddenly get very worried.

[Guardian Enzo]

I agree he'll campaign on his deal, but I'd argue that deal is a punch in the face. No-deal would be a dagger up the strap.

[erneiz_hyde]

I've been staying away from reading up on Brexit and I don't know shit about UK and EU politics, but I just watched CGP Grey's video and came upon this image

Images

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

There are 6 steps down right to No Deal. Apparently UK has been saying both "Brexit means Brexit" and "We want a deal" which made absolutely no sense. Do the UK actually wants to take 1 step up to the left? Be the Overlord of EU? "Make Great Britain Great Again"?

[Arabesque]

Originally Posted by erneiz_hyde

I've been staying away from reading up on Brexit and I don't know shit about UK and EU politics, but I just watched CGP Grey's video and came upon this image

Images

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

There are 6 steps down right to No Deal. Apparently UK has been saying both "Brexit means Brexit" and "We want a deal" which made absolutely no sense. Do the UK actually wants to take 1 step up to the left? Be the Overlord of EU? "Make Great Britain Great Again"?

Ah yes, that chart. The chart the EU had shown from the get go and made sure to explain, in as clear as terms as possible, why the UK demands were basically impossible to meet.

The long and short of it is that: the UK doesn't know what it wants, doesn't know how to get it, and is carrying on with this because it just "feels" right to leave the EU, consequences be damned.

There is no deal that the UK can agree on that can be better than being in their current position as a full member of the EU, simply because anything less than being a full member is a downgrade. But it don't matter, Brexit means Brexit.

As for taking a step on that ladder to clarify what position the UK wants in relation to the EU, that gets into the political situation in the UK making it almost impossible to do that. What position can the UK compromise on to move up the ladder when they know it will just be a worse position from where they are now? Should the UK just give up on what it has to be in a worse position just to avoid crashing out with no deal?

[James Rye]

Bye Bercow, Hi Hoyle.
Another election fun times ahead! XD

[James Rye]

Seems Bojo/Tories managed to cannibalize Farage/Brexit party totally. They now got like almost 20 points on Labour while Brexit has fallen from 19% down to 3 the past weeks. Still not sure Bojo gonna get his "conservative" (hahaha) majority but he seems closer to it than May.

[kari-no-sugata II]

Latest estimate (4 hours old) looks like this:


There was a late swing in 2017 and the polls were off by quite a bit so who knows what can happen. But, yeah, as said above, so far the Conservatives have been eating away at the Brexit party vote, and others. Labour have been a bit but seem to be plateauing while Libs are also shrinking. Pretty hard to say that the Remain vote is strong, or at least decisive.