History and Counterfactual speculations discussions

[MrTerrorist]

Originally Posted by Ridwan

I've never read the book, but the general educated consensus is that direct and fair representation in London for the colonists wasn't physically viable. Self-governing Dominion is the way.

From what i remember from the book, Britain allowed the colonials to self-rule as long as their laws did affect current British laws.
As a results, the settlers who went west did not settled in lands owned by the Native Americans since there was a treaty between Britain and the Natives.

[ChainLegacy]

That's what they attempted with Ireland in the Irish Free State - it caused the Irish Civil War. I wonder if such a thing would have occurred in America.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by MrTerrorist

From what i remember from the book, Britain allowed the colonials to self-rule as long as their laws did affect current British laws.
As a results, the settlers who went west did not settled in lands owned by the Native Americans since there was a treaty between Britain and the Natives.

those treaties didn't stop the Canadian so why would it stop the Americans? Even if the war in 1776 was averted, it would still have eventually ended the same way the Canada did. Eventual Independence with the Royal family being keep as Head of State.

[LeoXiao]

Working on a not-so-in-depth TL. Here are the results thus far.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Mainland War 1912-1969
大陸戰爭

Introduction

Of the states which are generally defined as Great Powers in the modern age, the Nationalist Republic of China has undoubtedly seen the greatest turmoil along the path which has brought her to the present day. The great war of unification, which was brought to its conclusion just a few short years ago, encompassed nearly three generations since its origin at the end of the Manchurian dynasty, whose swan song was heard in a time which seems now to be a distant age. Such a war, if even comparable to the perennial Balkan and Arab conflicts so well-known in the West, has in its sheer destructive scale no Occidental counterpart. Studies, of which few have been completed, indicate a death toll of roughly one hundred million in the fifty-eight years of what first the Red Japanese and now the world calls the Mainland War. Even the European Weltkrieg with its ghastly use of atomic and bacteriological weapons had, even by the highest estimates, barely half of that figure.

The term "Mainland War", which we use here, is an apt observation on the part of the Japanese: Seen from their Home Islands, not just China but indeed all of East Asia - the mainland, or tairiku, seemed alight in the fires of war. So myriad were the geopolitical relationships active during this period that a less general name would be sure to leave out one aspect or the other. The Japanese En'an Revolution, the turning of the Philippines and Indonesia to socialism, the Japanese-American War, the Korean War of Independence, and the Indochina War can all be said to have close links to the multigenerational conflict in China, to speak nothing of the reverberations felt all across the world, in the Russian Empire then the Soviet Union, in the German Reich, or in the development of America and the Pan-Oceanic League.

But it is in China herself that the greatest changes were, are, and shall continue be seen. How the character and identity of the New China was shaped by a war that began with machetes and muskets and ended with armor and jet bombers, how her social and political consciousness were shattered and eroded, rebuilt and reinvented, are rightfully counted among some of the salient questions facing us today. To answer them, we must look at the historical epic told in the course of the Mainland War.

(author withheld) February 7th, 1975, in Los Angeles

Background

With the disintegration of the Qing dynasty in 1907-8 following the Boxer Rebellion and defeat at the hands of the 8-Power Alliance in 1901, China collapsed. In the south, Han nationalist groups formed militias and governments, while in the north former Qing generals, paying only lip service to the ideal of a Republican China, fought one another for control of Beijing and the former lands of the Manchus. Thus began the Chinese warlord era and resultant civil war, a conflict which would last well into the latter half of the 20th century. Aside from banditry and warlords talking advantage of the political chaos, separatists in the Mongol, Turkic, and Tibetan regions detached themselves from the waning dynasty, and the deployment of Russian troops, already deployed in Manchuria during the Boxer Rebellion and the recent war with Japan, was expanded such as soldiers of the Tsar could be found all across North China.

The revolts in central and southern China began in Fujian, Anhui, Guangdong, and Xi'an. These initial insurrections, which came to be known as the Four Uprisings, were capitalized upon by Sun Zhongshan and his ideological comrades. In the north, General Yuan Shikai of the semi-modernized Beiyang Army had in 1909 declared himself loyal to a Han China and was instrumental in bringing about the downfall of Manchu hegemony. After fifteen months of battle with loyalist troops, he occupied Beijing and forced the Guangxu emperor to abdicate in 1910. Pockets of loyalist resistance, however, remained and met with decisive defeat only in late 1911.

Images

China 1907-1911

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

[LeoXiao]

Two Chinas, Endless Disorder

Within the few years of insurrections and mutinies against the Qing dynasty, two general factions had taken their preliminary forms. Negotiations between north and south broke down as it became clear that Yuan Shikai would not settle for any less than his being placed in a position of political and military dominance. The Chinese Federative Republic (Zhonghua Lianbang Gongheguo，中華聯邦共和國) was formed in 1912 from a coalition of southern Han nationalist movements, headed by that of Sun Zhongshan's Tongmenghui, which became the Democratic Party of China (ZMD, Zhongguo Minzhu Dang；中國民主黨, abbreviated Zhong Min Dang). Its provisional capital was located first at Nanjing and then Guangzhou. Yuan's response was to proclaim the National Republic of China (Zhonghua Minguo, 中華民國) the same year at a heavily-publicized conference and military parade in Beijing. Though both factions claimed the whole of the former Qing borders, actual control was severely limited. Military leaders outside of the CFR's (or the Federation) and NROC's immediate spheres of influence at Guangdong and Fengtian, respectively, soon showed themselves to be completely untrustworthy.

In Beijing, the general and head of the semi-modernized Beiyang Army Yuan Shikai was able to pacify all meaningful resistance to his rule, but he was soon threatened by a contender, the neo-Qing loyalist Zhang Xun, a fellow Beiyang general. Zhang was backed by Mongolian and Muslim generals, many of whom had previously been in league with Beiyang forces during the mutiny. Various Muslim generals held lingering loyalty for the ousted Manchus, and Zhang had promised the Mongolians control of Inner Mongolian regions in exchange for their friendship. In 1915, Zhang's troops stormed the Forbidden City and occupied key positions. Rather than "give up the throne", Yuan retreated those forces in Zhili still loyal to him and looted the capital's national treasures on the way out, to Fengtian, where the local gangs (including Zhang Zuolin) had earlier been pressured into joining his cause. However, Zhang Xun was soon threatened by both Beiyang and Federation-aligned warlords in what was termed the "Unified National Protection Front" (this would later be continued by the Federation in the form of the Northern Expedition) and was driven into Inner Mongolia. By 1917, Yuan's forces were back in control of Beijing, much to chagrin of Sun and his comrades.

Foreign powers, notably Russia, Japan, and to a lesser extent the USA watched these developing events with interest. Russia recognized the NROC and made agreements with Yuan Shikai early on to preserve its status in Manchuria and North China generally, a relationship that would be continued by the Soviets and prove of vital importance in years to come. Americans, hoping to open the more stable North Chinese market, recognized the Nationalist government as well. The UK and Japan, who were allied, recognized the Federation. Japan in particular gave loans to Sun Zhongshan's government and supplied them with weapons.

The Federation

During and following the anti-restorationist movement, the Federation tried its best to organize. Sun gathered up relatively generals to reign in the questionable ones, by force if necessary. The resultant 1918 Northern Expedition succeeded in getting many warlords on the way to Beijing to give their allegiance to the Federation, but was itself fraught with difficulties. Sun Zhongshan was constantly wary of his subordinates double-crossing him. Capable generals who had appeared loyal made a habit of creating their own personal zones of influence while singing praise of the Federation. This led to the formation of the so-called Hebei and Jiangxi Cliques by late 1918, to mention the most significant such cases. The ruthless Zhang Jingyao of future infamy as a top general in the People's Volunteer Army was one such officer. To make matters worse, the Federation could not secure any meaningful support from the Yunnan-Xikang warlord bloc or pacify the lawless Sichuan region. Even if the Yunnanese by themselves could not threaten the Federation, their refusal to provide assistance denied the former a potentially strong ally. Though the restorationist Zhang Xun was defeated within two years, it was not Federation armies but Yuan Shikai's Beiyang troops who paraded before the Gates of Tiananmen.

The success of the Ronoto-led (Workers and Peasants Party) socialist revolution in Japan inspired a new ideological wave across China. The Chinese Communist party, officially formed in 1922 as a part of Sun's Democratic government, saw a rise in popularity among intellectuals. Many warlords, however, did not think well of the revolutionary ideology and did their best to diminish the influence of leftist thinkers in Federation politics, imprisoning, torturing, and killing those found to be or suspected of being followers of Marx or Nakano*. A few, however, were convinced by the gospel of revolution, and Sun Zhongshan himself was partial to the idea that progress might be attained through the leftist route.

*= Refers to Nakano Seigo, a key En'an-era Japanese socialist political theorist.

Nationalist China and the Rise of the Northern Marshall

But in the north, Communists were systemically suppressed. By the time of Yuan Shikai's death in 1919, a dictatorial but functioning government had been set up in Fengtian (Beijing was capital in name only). From roughly the end of the Russo-Japanese war in 1907 to 1920, Manchuria was the most stable region of the former Qing empire. Russian, then Soviet, American, and German commerce were the primary sources in boosting the region's economic development. Cities like Fengtian, Jilin, and Changchun were quickly-growing metropolises, and the Russian-built Harbin was a cosmopolitan city approaching half a million in 1920, a mere twenty-two years after its founding.

Now ruling over Northeastern China was Yuan Kewen, the ambitious son of Yuan Shikai, commonly known as the "Young Marshall" or "Northern Marshall", among other nicknames. In Federal China he was simply termed "the Beiyang warlord". The younger Yuan had had a good relationship with his father, and since the mid-1910s had been gradually prepared to take the reins. Despite being the son of one of Shikai's Korean concubines, he was doted on by his father, whose wife's son, Keding, had tragically become a victim of the Boxer War. Kewen involved himself in army life, inspecting and leading troops and using his personal fortune to acquire modern weapons and hire foreign experts. Ever since he took office, the younger Yuan was hardly naive regarding the harsh reality of political affairs. In 1919, upon the death of the elder Yuan, he survived an assassination attempt and prevailed over a half-hearted coalition of lesser generals who hoped to oust him, an event which is said to be responsible for his future paranoia. The plotters, led by Zhang Zuolin in collusion with such figures as Wu Junsheng, Tang Yulin, and Cai E, were arrested and placed on show trial. All were executed except for Cai E, who escaped to Guangdong, where he gained Sun's favor as a loyal and ideologically correct officer. Tragically, he was soon assassinated by a general who feared his growing influence. The younger Yuan dedicated the next few months to a campaign of terror, rooting out and dealing with anyone connected to the plot. Since a great deal of senior officers had been removed from their posts, way was made for Yuan to fill their places with younger individuals.

Despite his early-acquired penchant for ruthlessness, Yuan proved a capable administrator. He promoted a decidedly Chinese nationalist agenda, which set him on the side of intellectuals and students who worried for their country's future. Continuing his habits from the time of his father, he solicited economic advice from experts and invited foreign investment. Using his late father's Beiyang army as a mold, he reorganized bandit units into a professional force. Particularly those troops once under the command of disloyal generals were broken up and reorganized among more standardized lines. He studied the results of the recent European wars between France, Germany, and Russia, and implemented institutional reforms to his command structure with the help of mostly Russian and some German advisors. Yuan also developed a slight obsession with "mechanical weapons" - heavy artillery, aircraft, and armored vehicles - which he believed were in the process of rendering the infantryman irrelevant in European conflicts and that this trend would surely be repeated in the Asia. While promoting a modern sense of Chinese national identity, he also criticized the Communist ideology as a "superfluous Western import" and not "intended for the Orient". Migrants poured in from all over China, boosting Manchuria's labor force. By 1930, the general Manchurian region would be home to almost fifty million people.

EDIT (8-27-13): This is only a precursory look at Manchuria. A 4000-word update has been written that goes into greater detail. It shall be posted soon.

Images

China 1911-1919

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

[LeoXiao]

I've cooked up a few more updates in the last couple months. Will post them in succession.

Initial Nationalist-Federal Conflicts and the Rise of Early Leftism in the 1920s

In 1923, Yuan Kewen felt he needed to consolidate his hold on the North China plain. With his Beiyang Army, he marched south to Nanjing and then towards Shanghai, press-ganging various warlords into his service on the way. However, the position was untenable as the new warlord allies proved less than reliable, and his own Beiyang troops, though well-disciplined and equipped, did not have the proper experience or doctrine to defeat the enemies they faced. Sun Zhongshan had placed generals Duan Qirui, Xu Shuzheng, and Wu Guangxin, of the Hubei Clique, in charge of the defense of Jiangsu and Shanghai. The threat of the Beiyang Army created incentive for bandits and Federation troops (albeit under unruly warlords such as Duan) to work together in harassing and wearing down the northerners. In 1924 Yuan had had enough and decided to retreat his army to the north banks of the Yellow River and Qingdao.

The incursion had unpredicted effects. After the conflict, Sun Zhongshan seemed in a better position to reign in the more major warlords who did not head the demands of his legislature. In 1925 Sun was murdered while touring Zhejiang Province, probably by a Jiangxi Clique warlord fearful of further centralization. In any case, the assassination made Sun a martyr for progress, especially in the eyes of leftists, for he had recently approved various reform projects. Sun was replaced by Wang Jingwei, a charismatic politician who appealed to growing revolutionary sentiment. He declared that Beijing would be "red by 1930" and that the "Manchu remnants" (referring to the NROC) would soon succumb. This led to the Second Northern Expedition in 1928, which was in fact not meant to destroy the NROC, but the Jiangxi and Hubei Cliques.

The campaign met with initial success - Zhang Jingyao, prominent warlord in Hunan province, had recently endorsed revolutionaries in that region and vowed to "follow Marx" in building the "New China". He led his army through the countryside, killing landlords and recruiting peasant militias in complete betrayal of his former clique members. Though criticized by Wang for his blatant banditry, his style of revolution was approved by others as "patriotic vigilantism". Other military leaders in the Hunan-Jiangxi-Zhejiang area saw what had happened and put themselves on the side of the revolutionaries.

Things had gone less smoothly with the Hubei Clique. Rather than come over to the Wang government as bandits-turned-revolutionaries, the Hubei generals saw Wang's "Northern" Expedition for what it was and put up bitter resistance, claiming that the federal ideal had been "perverted" by Wang's "dictatorship". The Hubei Clique, too, collapsed, but what came of it was not a "revolutionary province" but simply a lawless hellhole like Sichuan west of Chongqing. The Wuchang arsenal had been looted and industrial machinery destroyed or stolen. Anti-Wang elements now demonized him as "Wang Biantai" (Wang the Perverse) instead of "Jingwei". As it were, however, many of the warlords who followed Zhang's example and "turned" had simply "applied red paint", and carried on much as before, justifying their wanton by terming it "revolution". Wang found himself much in the same position as the late Sun - intellectuals and soldiers were, after all, a world apart.

And here is the map. So far I am assuming that people know what the provinces are, so I'm not labeling anything except for what the colors mean. Please speak up if this is making things difficult.

Images

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

A Mongolian update, which covers events up until around 1928, is next up. It was made possible by a Mongolian dude from AH.com.

[Sumeragi]

Something to consider for my various projects.

[Fireminer]

Ok, so my first post: What if the theory of Domino effect never existed? No Cold Wars? A least agrresive feat in weapon development? A more friendly partner between the East and the West?

[Ridwan]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

Something to consider for my various projects.

"Red Plum Blossom" ? Which reminds me of what I forgot to ask you back then : what's the PoD ?

Originally Posted by Fireminer

Ok, so my first post: What if the theory of Domino effect never existed? No Cold Wars? A least agrresive feat in weapon development? A more friendly partner between the East and the West?

How do you intend to achieve this ? By having no WW2 ? Or by having D-Day launched earlier ?

[Fireminer]

Well... Japan and Germany both targerted Soviet Union first. D-Day happened sooner. Due to the heavy blow to its power, Soviet Union became less ambitious and more opened...

The only scenario appeared on my head...

[LeoXiao]

Here's one possibility. Get rid of the Berlin Blockade, and have the proper negotiations to unify Germany succeed in 1948 (Stalin Note, but earlier?), and be carried out over the next few years. You have just eliminated the zone of early Cold War flashpoints. Provided Germany doesn't become Communist (I believe it won't as long as it is truly self-governed), it will stand as an argument against the domino effect theory.

This change of OTL historical events leads to Stalin seeing the Korean situation differently, and refusing Kim Il-sung permission to invade South Korea in hopes that negotiations can lead to unification. In this case, the negotiations fail and Korea remains separated, perhaps to turn into a war in a couple decades, but at least for the present it does not serve to fuel anti-Communist fears. No Korean war means that Mao might be able to conquer Taiwan in 1950 without the US making a big deal about it, which would have interesting effects regarding future economics, UN recognition, etc.

Without the Korean war, China also does not have a huge excuse to leech the Soviets for weapons. I don't honestly know how much of their scientific/research aid was a result of the Korean war, but no war could leave a dent in this relationship and perhaps cause the Sino-Soviet split to occur sooner. China might not get the nuclear bomb for quite some time.

The lack of intense flashpoints or the Korean proxy war will affect Russia as well. By 1955, the German unification will have produced a nice neutral pillow country between the Warsaw Pact and NATO, and fears about nuclear war will be far less pronounced since the superpowers have so far gotten along. No McCarthy anti-Communist witchhunt leads to higher tolerance of socialist ideas in American politics. Whoever replaces Stalin in 1953 might be inclined to attempt trade with the West, with there being less reason for military confrontation. You could have detente two decades early. When Vietnam votes on a government for reunification, the USA might allow Ho Chi Minh's faction to get into office.

This, however, only concerns the 40s, 50s, and 60s. The fact that the Eastern and Western blocs still exist and still have rather opposite ideologies might not be overcome so easily. The butterfly effect could lead to conflicts elsewhere that weren't really an issue in our world. Perhaps in the 60s or 70s, despite a good start after WW2, the cold war would really start up. Perhaps it would not be over even today.

[Fireminer]

Thank you! Have been irked by this one for quite sometime. But what do you think that could happened with Afghanistan War?

Oh, and no Pig Gulf and Cuba Missile Crisis?

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by Fireminer

Thank you! Have been irked by this one for quite sometime. But what do you think that could happened with Afghanistan War?

If you're talking about the scenario I proposed, in which Germany gets reunified in 1950, then Afghanistan is impossible to predict, since that conflict started in the 70s. Circumstances in the 70s of the scenario would look very different.

Oh, and no Pig Gulf and Cuba Missile Crisis?

This might well be the case. It's possible that Castro doesn't even come to power in 1959 since at one point he only had 80 men to fight the government with. His victory was far from certain and the butterfly effect could have changed the outcome easily.

[Ridwan]

I always find it fascinating about how everything could've happened with intellectual development in reaction to the rise of Capitalism, 19th century Industrial Revolution, and Western Imperialism, and frankly it's always been fun for me imagining a Cold War situation with alternative ideologies on the play, or imagining how socialism and/or state nationalism could've evolved the alternative way and change the world. There are lots to play with. Narodism (where OTL communism is basically this plus marxism) or Menshevism could've taken hold in Russia. Pan-Islamism could've had its chance had Ottomans retained their pre-1878 strength/Islamic modernism could've rolled with surviving Ottoman Caliphate. Et cetera et cetera.

What kind of an alternative ideology would you like to see ?

I'm personally interested in seeing alternative location to Russia for the rise of revolutionary marxist regime like in, say, Britain or France and how marxist ideas will be interpreted there. Or perhaps some kind of a "fascism light" equivalent to social democracy as an adjustment of fascist ideas into democratic system, with all the contradictions that follow. Or perhaps a world where religious left and/or religious liberalism actually took off...

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by LeoXiao

No Korean war means that Mao might be able to conquer Taiwan in 1950 without the US making a big deal about it, which would have interesting effects regarding future economics, UN recognition, etc.

Something normally overlook in the West but very significant happen during the Korean War that affected China. Mao's oldest son, who was being groom to succeed Mao died in US airstrike. If Mao's oldest succeed, Deng doesn't get to do his opening up of China. Who knows what China would look like today.

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

Something normally overlook in the West but very significant happen during the Korean War that affected China. Mao's oldest son, who was being groom to succeed Mao died in US airstrike. If Mao's oldest succeed, Deng doesn't get to do his opening up of China. Who knows what China would look like today.

A lot of things could happen. There might not be a Great Leap Forward, which might lead to there not being a Cultural Revolution. China might look a lot more like the post-Stalin USSR after Mao dies.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by LeoXiao

A lot of things could happen. There might not be a Great Leap Forward, which might lead to there not being a Cultural Revolution. China might look a lot more like the post-Stalin USSR after Mao dies.

unfortunately the Culture Revolution would still go through. It was Mao's way of purging anyone he thinks could be a threat to his position. If he oldest son was still alive to succeed him, Mao's purge would be even more through then the real one.

[LeoXiao]

You're right, the Cultural Revolution was probably going to happen in some form, since that was Mao's style since his time at Yan'an. I wonder how much he really cared about his family, however. He did not pass power to Jiang Qing nor did he prepare Mao Yuanxin (his nephew) for leadership. Incidentally, on AH.com, someone has written an excellent timeline in which Mao Yuanxin comes to power and turns post-1975 China into a mega-Cambodia.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by LeoXiao

You're right, the Cultural Revolution was probably going to happen in some form, since that was Mao's style since his time at Yan'an. I wonder how much he really cared about his family, however. He did not pass power to Jiang Qing nor did he prepare Mao Yuanxin (his nephew) for leadership. Incidentally, on AH.com, someone has written an excellent timeline in which Mao Yuanxin comes to power and turns post-1975 China into a mega-Cambodia.

Jiang Qing was more his attack dog then a wife by that point and Oldest Son is very different then a nephew. You really can't say just because he didn't prepare his nephew as a successor he wouldn't have done the same for his oldest son. Who was groom for the top job.

College Education
Work at a Factory
the Korean War was suppose to burnish his military credentials. He was just unlucky enough to be at HQ when the US airstrike hit.

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

Jiang Qing was more his attack dog then a wife by that point and Oldest Son is very different then a nephew. You really can't say just because he didn't prepare his nephew as a successor he wouldn't have done the same for his oldest son. Who was groom for the top job.

That's the thing. If he saw his wife as a tool, what would that make a son? I feel like Mao wasn't all that attached to concepts of family loyalty.

College Education
Work at a Factory
the Korean War was suppose to burnish his military credentials. He was just unlucky enough to be at HQ when the US airstrike hit.

I agree he would have been important if he survived, but just how far the elder Mao would have gone to ensure his son can get into power is something I don't know.