Island War [Manga]

[revan5]

Spoiler for The Balance of Power loses balance, Part 2:

In Chapter 93 and through to this moment, the balance of power in this now-hot Island War has been in constant flux. A balance of power that is constantly changing is symptomatic of near-continuous warfare by a host of powers or factions. That's exactly what we found in these chapters.

We started Chapter 93 looking like this:

1.) The Organization
2.) Western Abyssal
3.) The Ghosts
----------
Other powers not actively fighting:
Superabyssal One Priscilla
Dragonkin/Organization's Enemies

By the time we started Chapter 95, things had completely changed with the emergence of a brand-new power, the Destroyer. The Organization had just deployed its top warriors, Alicia and Beth, who were in the process of kicking Riful and Dauf's butt after a surprise attack by the Abyss Eaters.

1.) The Destroyer-At this point there was no power anywhere close to rivaling the Destroyer besides the Organization. However, unlike the Organization, whose top two Abyssal-level warriors had their strength diffused across two people, the Destroyer had hers concentrated in only one. We must assume that this made some substantial difference in collective strength, as in Claymore it is likely the sum of the whole is less than that of the individual parts. The offspring of the Destroyer dramatically enhanced its reach, destroying villages and terrain in a wide stretch of land around it.

2.) The Organization may have thought itself still top dog, but it was still unaware as to the nature of how powerful the new threat was. At its disposal were numerous Claymore and even more powerful but limited Abyss Eaters. Its real firepower though was deployed afield in the forms of Alicia and Beth. As such the risk to their position was great, although they could still survive such a blow.

3.) The Ghosts-In a surprising move, the Ghosts began demonstrating why they had survived Pieta, and also took advantage of Riful's weakness to move up a notch. Though no longer as stealthy, the Ghosts warrior pedigrees jumped as they survived the surprise onslaught. With half of their members (Miria, Miata , Galatea, Tabitha and Clarice) still in Rabona, they were also likely to survive the rise of the Destroyer no matter what.

4.) Western Abyssal-Everything that could have gone wrong in Riful's life just about did. She was cut up by Alicia, then when she was about to do more counterattacks, she got hit by flying projectiles from the Destroyer. The attacks wiped out her strength, reducing her to human form once more...

------------------
Non-participatory powers:
Superabyssal Priscilla
Dragonkin/Organization's Enemies

------------------------------------------------------

Then of course has come the last few chapters, chapters 96-99. Massive change has occurred, resulting in a humbled power, a new power in the field, and a massive power shift away from established powers.

1.)Priscilla/Destroyer (Tied for first): In an unprecedented situation, the Destroyer's strength has at least been matched by that of the Superabyssal One Priscilla. The Destroyer would be lower, but as we don't know the effects of concentrating the strength of two Abyssal Ones, I decided to be cautious. Priscilla obviously did the most damage, although she was certainly helping killing Riful by the efforts of Alicia, the Abyss Eaters, and the Destroyer.

2.) The Ghosts-With the Organization's top two warriors now dead, a large number of its Abyss Eaters annihilated, and its potential No. 1 replacement Miata now a member of their ranks, it would seem the Ghosts came brilliantly through the hellish chaos. That said, it would be a shame to lose Yuma or Cynthia, though not a crippling blow. Their future however at this point in time is very much up in the air as Priscilla approaches Claire.

3.) The Organization-The phrase "down but not out" is a good one for the Organization. They have lost Alicia and Beth, their potential replacement Miata, and their ranks are rife with rumor that the Ghosts of the Pieta battle have come back. Though they may be formidable in numbers, the remainder of the Ghosts in Rabona alone (Miria, Miata, Galatea, Tabitha and Clarice) are probably enough to defeat the remaining single digits of the Organization. Speaking of single digits, the Organization has only six of their previously nine single-digits alive or not deserting. The Organization might survive a showdown with only half the Ghosts, but almost certainly could not beat all the Ghosts. With Raki's imminent arrival at their headquarters their fortunes may be heading up shortly...

--------------
Non-active power:
Dragonkin/alliance of Organization's Enemies-Without a doubt these guys are even more powerful than Priscilla, and that's saying a lot. Expect the temptation to intervene in the Island War to steadily increase as the war grinds on and destroys more factions.

So, having read all that, let's get on to our discussion points.

1.) Which factions are most likely to be destroyed?

For me personally they are the Destroyer of course, and now that Riful is dead, I would say either the Organization or Priscilla. Everything points to the possible elimination of more players on the stage until we finally see the "grand continental war" make its way onto the island.

2.) Which factions are most likely to be hurt but not destroyed?

The two that top my list are the Organization and the Ghosts. The Ghosts at present time could lose up to roughly half their strength, which would be a terrible blow to their fortunes. The Organization has already seen a massive drop in its power and will need Raki to be an amazing warrior for their decline to halt.

3.) Will the continental war of alliances make it onto the island?

In my opinion this is close to guaranteed. Yagi has a track record of showing things like Awakened Beings or talking about them (Dragonkin) and later revealing them. To only talk about Dragonkin would seem a terrible waste to the story when he's set up for their entrance for a very long time.

4.) Which of the great alliances (Organization's or Dragonkins') will intervene with outside force first?

Hard to say, but I think that it is most likely to be the Dragonkins' side, as they would have much more to lose from controllable awakened beings. With 4 partially awakened ones (possibly six with Yuma and Cynthia's actions) facing off against the Organization, expect them to become aware of this fact at some point (possibly very, very soon!). When they do, also expect Rubel's employers to lose much of their previous sabotaging patience.

5.) If there is an invasion, what will happen to the balance of powers?

In all likelihood Priscilla will lose top spot to a horde of Dragonkin and their armies. I would expect that the Organization might be overrun, and that the survivors would fall into the Ghosts' hands. On the other hand both continental powers could intervene with massive armies at the same time, precipitating total war for the first time in the island's history.

6.) What do the Ghosts do in the event of outside interference?

Consider if you will their fortuitous home city of Rabona. It has within it a legal system, a considerable army of guards, is massively fortified, and is aligned with the Ghosts. It is quite likely that the Ghosts may be leading an island unification movement from Rabona. I would expect Rabona may soon become the capital of a third rebellious power. That is what I expect to be the end-game in Claymore's story, not Priscilla versus Claire.

6.) So what's the wild card in all of this?

I think there are two, and one of them has already played its hand. That one is the Destroyer, and the other is Priscilla. I expect that their presence will massively foul up the anti-Organization war Miria has been planning for the last seven years. That said, I still see it happening.

[[thousandmaster]]

It would be funny if the number 1 rank warriors here on the island would be ranked in the 30 - 40 on the mainland, powerwise.

[revan5]

Originally Posted by [thousandmaster]

It would be funny if the number 1 rank warriors here on the island would be ranked in the 30 - 40 on the mainland, powerwise.

It all depends on numbers. I would expect though that the number of Awakened warriors deployed in the continental war far exceeds that found on "Claymore Island". So it is quite likely you may be right. That basically means the Ghosts have a very long way to go before this manga ends. Basically once things resolve themselves in roughly 12-20 chapters, it'll have to move onto a new arc.

What would be even more impressive than Priscilla and the Destroyer? An army of tens of thousands of soldiers armed with everything from pikes to crossbows followed by a large group of Dragonkin. That would be just about impossible for even Priscilla to top in firepower. My guess is that Dragonkin are seriously nasty opponents, otherwise Awakened Beings would be overpowering them, not "stalemating" the conflict to where it is now.

[Shiek927]

Originally Posted by [thousandmaster]

It would be funny if the number 1 rank warriors here on the island would be ranked in the 30 - 40 on the mainland, powerwise.

.........Nah. I imagine a standard Dragon is the strength of an above-average AB. Who knows though.

--

1.) Which factions are most likely to be destroyed?

For me personally they are the Destroyer of course, and now that Riful is dead, I would say either the Organization or Priscilla. Everything points to the possible elimination of more players on the stage until we finally see the "grand continental war" make its way onto the island.

Definitely definitely the Organization; they have nothing. They put all their eggs in one basket, and like Mike Myers quipped in Inglorious Basterds, the basket has been blown. All they have is a useless filler generation to show for all their arrogance.

Their only hope left is to make something out of Raki, whatever it may be. Even then, odds are, they probably won't control him because he's simply not the type. Developments between Raciella, Priscilla and The Ghosts could have the first, or first two killed, but at this point, the Org can be killed with the blink of a eye.

--

2.) Which factions are most likely to be hurt but not destroyed?

The two that top my list are the Organization and the Ghosts. The Ghosts at present time could lose up to roughly half their strength, which would be a terrible blow to their fortunes. The Organization has already seen a massive drop in its power and will need Raki to be an amazing warrior for their decline to halt.

Definitely the Ghosts....The Org could lose it all if something happens to Raki; he escapes from confinement, he goes berserk...but the Ghosts could very well lose 3 of their members right now, and if Claire awakens and goes berserk, who knows what will happen....

Will the continental war of alliances make it onto the island?

In my opinion this is close to guaranteed. Yagi has a track record of showing things like Awakened Beings or talking about them (Dragonkin) and later revealing them. To only talk about Dragonkin would seem a terrible waste to the story when he's set up for their entrance for a very long time.


I'm gonna say....yes. I feel it is slightly increasing overtime as times goes on and current developements on the island are reaching completion. It's all too possible that Raciella may be dealt with before they even get here, for all we know. But I feel the odds of them arriving increase as times goes on.

4.) Which of the great alliances (Organization's or Dragonkins') will intervene with outside force first?

Hard to say, but I think that it is most likely to be the Dragonkins' side, as they would have much more to lose from controllable awakened beings. With 4 partially awakened ones (possibly six with Yuma and Cynthia's actions) facing off against the Organization, expect them to become aware of this fact at some point (possibly very, very soon!). When they do, also expect Rubel's employers to lose much of their previous sabotaging patience.

I remember when I was coming up with theories back in 92 or whatever, I imagined that Rubel's bosses would show up and tell them basically that; patience is wearing thin, and the situation is steadily moving away from their control. As events on the island get bigger and bigger, it feels natural that this "covert" operation of theirs will not remain covert any more.

It may be possible that their is internal warfare going on and the "central DoD government" doesn't know about the island war and what it represents. If the general public on the mainland learns about the island, they may depend full-blown war in the name of defense; which means pulling out Rubel and sending in air cavalry .

5.) If there is an invasion, what will happen to the balance of powers?

In all likelihood Priscilla will lose top spot to a horde of Dragonkin and their armies. I would expect that the Organization might be overrun, and that the survivors would fall into the Ghosts' hands. On the other hand both continental powers could intervene with massive armies at the same time, precipitating total war for the first time in the island's history.

Part of it depends on how strong the Dragons really are, but yes, they'll probably immidiately get the top spot. The Org and DoDs will war eachother and the Ghosts will be left to pick up the pieces.

As for Priscilla and Raciella, they are wild cards.

6.) What do the Ghosts do in the event of outside interference?

Consider if you will their fortuitous home city of Rabona. It has within it a legal system, a considerable army of guards, is massively fortified, and is aligned with the Ghosts. It is quite likely that the Ghosts may be leading an island unification movement from Rabona. I would expect Rabona may soon become the capital of a third rebellious power. That is what I expect to be the end-game in Claymore's story, not Priscilla versus Claire.

Agree 100%

6.) So what's the wild card in all of this?

I think there are two, and one of them has already played its hand. That one is the Destroyer, and the other is Priscilla. I expect that their presence will massively foul up the anti-Organization war Miria has been planning for the last seven years. That said, I still see it happening.

Priscilla I very much doubt will be an indepedent force for very long. Despite everything going the opposite direction I originally predicted, the possibility of her joining the Ghosts still exists.

I believe however their is a wild-card we are underestimating here: Claire, because if she fully-awakens in the near-future, she will be a rampaging beast plain and simple, one without control.

The ideal setup I imagine is: The Ghosts(and Priscilla) rallying the humans, the Organization(who will slowly lose filler warriors to the Ghosts) and their ultimate weapon Raki, the DoD's, and of course, Raciella.

The true wild-card of them all is Raciella, because she is totally on her own side and it's not changing.

[revan5]

Originally Posted by Shiek927

.........Nah. I imagine a standard Dragon is the strength of an above-average AB. Who knows though.

The question of how strong Dragonkin are is the million Euro question of the moment. Until we see them in action this will regretfully be unanswered.

Originally Posted by Shiek927

1.) Which factions are most likely to be destroyed?

Definitely definitely the Organization; they have nothing. They put all their eggs in one basket, and like Mike Myers quipped in Inglorious Basterds, the basket has been blown. All they have is a useless filler generation to show for all their arrogance.

Their only hope left is to make something out of Raki, whatever it may be. Even then, odds are, they probably won't control him because he's simply not the type. Developments between Raciella, Priscilla and The Ghosts could have the first, or first two killed, but at this point, the Org can be killed with the blink of a eye.

I think you're underestimating the Organization Shiek. Arrogant and ignorant as they are, their confidence is either overblown (quite likely) or more justified (also quite likely). We have yet to see what would happen if the Ghosts were to threaten their little operation. Chances are their alliance of nations will not tolerate failure and send in MASSIVE reinforcements.

Originally Posted by Shiek927

Definitely the Ghosts....The Org could lose it all if something happens to Raki; he escapes from confinement, he goes berserk...but the Ghosts could very well lose 3 of their members right now, and if Claire awakens and goes berserk, who knows what will happen....

I hate to say it, but I think you're right. I just don't want to see another "Flora" moment happen to Deneve or Helen. Claire on the other hand is the protagonist, so she won't be dying just yet...

Originally Posted by Shiek927

Will the continental war of alliances make it onto the island?

I'm gonna say....yes. I feel it is slightly increasing overtime as times goes on and current developements on the island are reaching completion. It's all too possible that Raciella may be dealt with before they even get here, for all we know. But I feel the odds of them arriving increase as times goes on.

You know what I keep thinking about? If one were to invade the island, where would be the ideal place to start? Personally I would think they'd either go for the prize (the east) immediately and slip into the southern or western lands quietly and carry out a high-speed "Napoleonic-style" offensive maneuver.

Originally Posted by Shiek927

I remember when I was coming up with theories back in 92 or whatever, I imagined that Rubel's bosses would show up and tell them basically that; patience is wearing thin, and the situation is steadily moving away from their control. As events on the island get bigger and bigger, it feels natural that this "covert" operation of theirs will not remain covert any more.

It may be possible that their is internal warfare going on and the "central DoD government" doesn't know about the island war and what it represents. If the general public on the mainland learns about the island, they may depend full-blown war in the name of defense; which means pulling out Rubel and sending in air cavalry .

The air cavalry? Shiek, we've seen nothing from Chapter 80 that suggests Dragonkin can fly. Absolutely nadda. However the fact that they are called "Dragonkin" does suggest that perhaps it may be possible, doesn't it?

Originally Posted by Shiek927

Part of it depends on how strong the Dragons really are, but yes, they'll probably immidiately get the top spot. The Org and DoDs will war eachother and the Ghosts will be left to pick up the pieces.

As for Priscilla and Raciella, they are wild cards.

Bring on the superpowers baby! If Yagi brings in the continental war rather than having our heroes pointlessly leave for the mainland (unless of course it's well-done), one expects their firepower would far surpass even Priscilla. After all, if making a Priscilla is merely a numbers game, chances are the same applies to Dragonkin on the mainland.

Originally Posted by Shiek927

Priscilla I very much doubt will be an indepedent force for very long. Despite everything going the opposite direction I originally predicted, the possibility of her joining the Ghosts still exists.

I believe however their is a wild-card we are underestimating here: Claire, because if she fully-awakens in the near-future, she will be a rampaging beast plain and simple, one without control.

The ideal setup I imagine is: The Ghosts(and Priscilla) rallying the humans, the Organization(who will slowly lose filler warriors to the Ghosts) and their ultimate weapon Raki, the DoD's, and of course, Raciella.

The true wild-card of them all is Raciella, because she is totally on her own side and it's not changing.

Well said. The Destroyer is almost certainly going to continue to interfere in whatever Claire/Priscilla confrontation follows this chapter.

Originally Posted by HegemonKhan

an interesting point though:


if RUBEL is indeed a spy for the dragon side, he KNEW Rafaela+Luciela+Clare would create the Destroyer.....

Also, the Dragons seem to be in control of themselves, not killing their own side.

in other words:

it is suggestive that the dragons' side and Rubel has much more knowledge then the Organization does...

What makes the Dragonkin so dangerous, from what we have read, is the fact that they are intelligent monsters that fight as part of a coherent tribe. That means they have a command hierarchy and PREFER to fight in groups compared to being alone. This stands in contrast to Awakened Beings, who sometimes lose their intelligence while switching over and have so far demonstrated that most HATE fighting together in groups.

I don't know what the Dragonkin eat, but something tells me they are at least omnivores, and possibly carnivores.

[Shiek927]

I think you're underestimating the Organization Shiek. Arrogant and ignorant as they are, their confidence is either overblown (quite likely) or more justified (also quite likely). We have yet to see what would happen if the Ghosts were to threaten their little operation. Chances are their alliance of nations will not tolerate failure and send in MASSIVE reinforcements.

For what purpose? To butcher themselves against Raciella?

Remember, they are the LOSING side. They can't afford to send troops to clean up their own mistakes, as it would be a huge intelligence loss in most likely revealing the islands location to the DoD's with any sizable exchange. It wouldn't matter anyway because, again, all their soldiers are mere humans. It'd be like sending an army of sheep.

I hate to say it, but I think you're right. I just don't want to see another "Flora" moment happen to Deneve or Helen. Claire on the other hand is the protagonist, so she won't be dying just yet..

It would be shocking........but I'm not leaving anything out. Even though she's the "protaganist", it would be a cool twist if something happened to Claire and the story kept going on. It's not like the story is all about her anyway.

The air cavalry? Shiek, we've seen nothing from Chapter 80 that suggests Dragonkin can fly. Absolutely nadda. However the fact that they are called "Dragonkin" does suggest that perhaps it may be possible, doesn't it?

Bah, I would be dissapointed if they can't fly: some authors are very unique with their dragons; giving them new powers, making them unable to shoot fire, or clipping their wings....I want to see the classical dragons.

[Aimless]

@revan:

I think you are missing a couple of things in your analysis here. The idea behind a balance of power is that multiple adversarial actors remain locked in a stable and self-perpetuating stalemate by virtue of the fact that no actor can move against another without weakening himself and thereby leaving himself vulnerable to a third. If you are familiar with the game Risk, this is a fundamental principle in that game; unless you have reached a position where you are stronger than all other forces combined, the best action is to do nothing and let your opponents kill each other.

To put some math into it, the situation goes a bit like this: consider factions A, B, C etc. and lets assign them strength on a point system. Suppose that each faction starts with 100 points. Further, suppose that any faction can "spend" points in order to damage another faction on a 1-for-1 basis; that is, A can spend 10 points to lower B's strength by 10 points. Finally, suppose that each faction will recover lost points slowly over time until they reach their starting total. Lastly, any faction which is reduced to 0 dies.

Now, the game proceeds. It should be immediately clear that, barring an alliance of two or more factions, the situation is a stalemate; no faction can kill another without committing suicide. This remains true even if the starting values of the powers are changed, up to a certain point.

The effect is strongest in a three-way situation. With three players, faction A must achieve a strength greater than the combined strength of B and C in order to break the stalemate; otherwise, killing B leaves A vulnerable to C.

In a four-way situation, A must only achieve enough strength to be able to kill B and still have enough strength to force a stalemate with C and D. That is to say, A must kill B and have more remaining strength than the difference between C and D. Otherwise, A cannot kill B.

(Edit: Actually, 4-ways are almost always unstable, since except in situations where the strengths are a dead tie the strongest can always kill the weakest and have more left over than the difference between the middle two.)

In a five-way, things are bit harder. Now, A must be able to kill B with enough strength remaining that the difference between A and the strongest remaining player (call him C) is smaller than the difference between D and E. Otherwise, C could afford to immediately eliminate A.

(Edit: In light of the edit above, five-ways are tricky. Basically, no player can afford to kill another if that would leave him as the weakest member of the resulting four-way.)

Beyond this, it's a recursive relation. A can break the stalemate so long as A can kill B and have enough left over to still force stalemate conditions on the rest. Of course, by this point, alliance structures become more important than the actual power levels of the actors, but we're assuming a situation in which no faction is willing to act in concert with any other faction.

From that perspective, the balance of power was permanently broken on the Island the second that Priscilla awoke; her power was such that whichever faction controlled her could afford to eliminate the others one by one without leaving itself vulnerable to retaliation by any other group. And we see this in the way that Isley immediately began a conflict with Luciela.

The initial situation of the Org. and the three abyssals was stable (mainly because the three abyssals had a three way amongst themselves and the Org. was weak enough that they didn't care), but after Prissy awoke it no longer was so. Thus, all of the events we have seen in the manga should be interpreted in the light of a dynamic and evolving system, rather than the equilibrium suggested by a balance of power. The War in the North was the first move, but everything since then was set in motion by that event.

The situation will inevitably continue to evolve until it reaches a new stable equilibrium; ie. it will evolve until all factions but one are destroyed or until a new balance of power is established. It should be noted that balances are impossible if there are only two factions.

Thus, your questions should be answered with that in mind. Which factions will die? All factions which are not included in whatever the final equilibrium might be. However, the existence of Priscilla and the Destroyer make finding a new equilibrium extremely difficult. The Destroyer will continue attacking until it is dead, and as a result will weaken all factions.

To form a new equilibrium means that, after the Destroyer is dead, we must have two surviving factions on strength par with Priscilla. This is unlikely, even if we count Clare as one. So, I think the appropriate answer to that question is "all of them save one, dependent upon the outcome of the battle between Clare and Priscilla."

Well... that's quite a lot of rambling blather from me, and it's an oversimplification of the issue anyway. My main point is that we're past the point where balance of power is a consideration, and we're now into the inevitable downspiral of confrontation following confrontation until the end.

[Ryus]

@ Aimless: Nice risk comparison... not sure I agree this is the beginning of the end since the mainland sides haven't been effected by The Destroyer or Priscilla. In short a multiple sided fight in Australia (that doesn't have troops arriving from the mainland to the Island) won't effect Asia, Africa, Europe, North America, and South America's battles. (As vital as Australia is in Risk, their board is very different.)

-------

Before I begin... I just want to state that man power wise the mainland organization should be as close to as strong as the Dragonskin. They also have knowledge of making twin warriors (so they could produce more of them). We saw how far they trained Alicia x Beth so how much better would version 2 be... They also have made Priscilla and Teresa, so theoricially they could produce another (that is once they realize how strong they really are, Rubel likely won't be able to prevent them from finding this one out). Plus let's not forget the mainland likely has thousands of AB corpses out there to make AFs with and Priscilla has left a few limbs behind. So I'd place both the mainland combined armies far stronger than Priscilla or the Destroyer, however if attacked piecemeal Priscilla might stand a good chance since she could easily avoid an armies worth of arrows... she's just too fast. Plus lets not forget the Claymore's metal, what if all soldiers have this armor and weapons?

I have been wondering how the Dragonskin came to be, after all Miria seemed to imply they showed up 100 years ago. So what upgrades have they gotten since then.

Also I see a problem with the Ghosts ability to survive a war of attrition. They can't produce their own warriors and rely on just a few people. I mean if they could produce their own hybrid warriors and partially awaken all of them they might stand a chance in the grandscale. For now, they can survive by picking up scraps of the organization and training the lower ranks to get stronger. But later this won't work... Also we have this mistake Raphaela mentioned to consider... I doubt Rabona can offer a huge army anytime soon... It would take months if not years to get anything more than a very large city guard.

Originally Posted by revan5

Spoiler for The Balance of Power loses balance, Part 2:

In Chapter 93 and through to this moment, the balance of power in this now-hot Island War has been in constant flux. A balance of power that is constantly changing is symptomatic of near-continuous warfare by a host of powers or factions. That's exactly what we found in these chapters.

We started Chapter 93 looking like this:

1.) The Organization
2.) Western Abyssal
3.) The Ghosts
----------
Other powers not actively fighting:
Superabyssal One Priscilla
Dragonkin/Organization's Enemies

By the time we started Chapter 95, things had completely changed with the emergence of a brand-new power, the Destroyer. The Organization had just deployed its top warriors, Alicia and Beth, who were in the process of kicking Riful and Dauf's butt after a surprise attack by the Abyss Eaters.

1.) The Destroyer-At this point there was no power anywhere close to rivaling the Destroyer besides the Organization. However, unlike the Organization, whose top two Abyssal-level warriors had their strength diffused across two people, the Destroyer had hers concentrated in only one. We must assume that this made some substantial difference in collective strength, as in Claymore it is likely the sum of the whole is less than that of the individual parts. The offspring of the Destroyer dramatically enhanced its reach, destroying villages and terrain in a wide stretch of land around it.

2.) The Organization may have thought itself still top dog, but it was still unaware as to the nature of how powerful the new threat was. At its disposal were numerous Claymore and even more powerful but limited Abyss Eaters. Its real firepower though was deployed afield in the forms of Alicia and Beth. As such the risk to their position was great, although they could still survive such a blow.

3.) The Ghosts-In a surprising move, the Ghosts began demonstrating why they had survived Pieta, and also took advantage of Riful's weakness to move up a notch. Though no longer as stealthy, the Ghosts warrior pedigrees jumped as they survived the surprise onslaught. With half of their members (Miria, Miata , Galatea, Tabitha and Clarice) still in Rabona, they were also likely to survive the rise of the Destroyer no matter what.

4.) Western Abyssal-Everything that could have gone wrong in Riful's life just about did. She was cut up by Alicia, then when she was about to do more counterattacks, she got hit by flying projectiles from the Destroyer. The attacks wiped out her strength, reducing her to human form once more...

------------------
Non-participatory powers:
Superabyssal Priscilla
Dragonkin/Organization's Enemies

------------------------------------------------------

Then of course has come the last few chapters, chapters 96-99. Massive change has occurred, resulting in a humbled power, a new power in the field, and a massive power shift away from established powers.

1.)Priscilla/Destroyer (Tied for first): In an unprecedented situation, the Destroyer's strength has at least been matched by that of the Superabyssal One Priscilla. The Destroyer would be lower, but as we don't know the effects of concentrating the strength of two Abyssal Ones, I decided to be cautious. Priscilla obviously did the most damage, although she was certainly helping killing Riful by the efforts of Alicia, the Abyss Eaters, and the Destroyer.

2.) The Ghosts-With the Organization's top two warriors now dead, a large number of its Abyss Eaters annihilated, and its potential No. 1 replacement Miata now a member of their ranks, it would seem the Ghosts came brilliantly through the hellish chaos. That said, it would be a shame to lose Yuma or Cynthia, though not a crippling blow. Their future however at this point in time is very much up in the air as Priscilla approaches Claire.

3.) The Organization-The phrase "down but not out" is a good one for the Organization. They have lost Alicia and Beth, their potential replacement Miata, and their ranks are rife with rumor that the Ghosts of the Pieta battle have come back. Though they may be formidable in numbers, the remainder of the Ghosts in Rabona alone (Miria, Miata, Galatea, Tabitha and Clarice) are probably enough to defeat the remaining single digits of the Organization. Speaking of single digits, the Organization has only six of their previously nine single-digits alive or not deserting. The Organization might survive a showdown with only half the Ghosts, but almost certainly could not beat all the Ghosts. With Raki's imminent arrival at their headquarters their fortunes may be heading up shortly...

--------------
Non-active power:
Dragonkin/alliance of Organization's Enemies-Without a doubt these guys are even more powerful than Priscilla, and that's saying a lot. Expect the temptation to intervene in the Island War to steadily increase as the war grinds on and destroys more factions.

So, having read all that, let's get on to our discussion points.

For the most part a very good analysis.

Originally Posted by revan5

1.) Which factions are most likely to be destroyed?

For me personally they are the Destroyer of course, and now that Riful is dead, I would say either the Organization or Priscilla. Everything points to the possible elimination of more players on the stage until we finally see the "grand continental war" make its way onto the island.

For me it's
1) The Destroyer
2) The Islands Organization
3) Priscilla (I doubt this, at least for quite a while)
4) Left over Yoma/ABs (they just seem too insignificant to be dealt with anymore)
---
5) The church / total annihilation of all humans on the island (if you count them as something separate side from the Ghosts)
6) The Ghosts (Though the least likely, though it would be interesting to see them loss the island war and retreating to the Mainland and going into hiding there.)

Originally Posted by revan5

2.) Which factions are most likely to be hurt but not destroyed?

The two that top my list are the Organization and the Ghosts. The Ghosts at present time could lose up to roughly half their strength, which would be a terrible blow to their fortunes. The Organization has already seen a massive drop in its power and will need Raki to be an amazing warrior for their decline to halt.

For the short term it's clearly the organization and ghosts. The Destroyer and Priscilla are solo players... and to injure them is to put them so close to death it would take a miracle for someone not to pick them off.

I'm not sure I can include the Humans/Yoma/leftover ABs on this list... there all solo sides that have large numbers spread out... So in the coming chapters they should survive... and loss of numbers won't harm there over all strength.

Originally Posted by revan5

3.) Will the continental war of alliances make it onto the island?

In my opinion this is close to guaranteed. Yagi has a track record of showing things like Awakened Beings or talking about them (Dragonkin) and later revealing them. To only talk about Dragonkin would seem a terrible waste to the story when he's set up for their entrance for a very long time.

I agree they will get involved. The question ishow and when... For example will the Ghosts be playing defensive (staying on the island) or offensive (going to the mainland and starting more rebellions). Or will one of the sides act before the Ghosts have a chance to choose to go offensive (striking midway through so yet to come epic fight).

Originally Posted by revan5

4.) Which of the great alliances (Organization's or Dragonkins') will intervene with outside force first?

Hard to say, but I think that it is most likely to be the Dragonkins' side, as they would have much more to lose from controllable awakened beings. With 4 partially awakened ones (possibly six with Yuma and Cynthia's actions) facing off against the Organization, expect them to become aware of this fact at some point (possibly very, very soon!). When they do, also expect Rubel's employers to lose much of their previous sabotaging patience.

This idea has potential but we have nothing implying they will act first but nothing implying otherwise either... I like the idea of the one of the big players finally stepping in and so far it makes more sense for the Dragonskin to act since The Ghosts have defeated many ABs before... (unless Yagi wants them to partially awaken them or gain a rebellious legion of troops before they take on the Dragonkin). However Rubel did mention they wanted to make the organization think they lost control, so acting before they report failing would be stupid on the Dragonskins part...

Originally Posted by revan5

5.) If there is an invasion, what will happen to the balance of powers?

In all likelihood Priscilla will lose top spot to a horde of Dragonkin and their armies. I would expect that the Organization might be overrun, and that the survivors would fall into the Ghosts' hands. On the other hand both continental powers could intervene with massive armies at the same time, precipitating total war for the first time in the island's history.

Well, Priscilla doesn't seem to want the top spot. She only hungry and wants Raki back... So the odds of her getting involved in a future fight are uncertain. Though Raki, if he maintains his humanity, likely would... So would Priscilla join him (if she's still alive and still likes Raki)

Originally Posted by revan5

6.) What do the Ghosts do in the event of outside interference?

Consider if you will their fortuitous home city of Rabona. It has within it a legal system, a considerable army of guards, is massively fortified, and is aligned with the Ghosts. It is quite likely that the Ghosts may be leading an island unification movement from Rabona. I would expect Rabona may soon become the capital of a third rebellious power. That is what I expect to be the end-game in Claymore's story, not Priscilla versus Claire.

That depends on the force they encounter... A Dragonskin would likely have no problems breaching Rabona's walls and there army would likely be bigger. It would be wisest to defend Rabona by intercepting their force prior to reaching Rabona. Think Battle of Thermopylae (the movie 300) where they intercepted them at a place the terrain favored them giving them a force multiplier. Or the Battle of Martahon, where the Athenians meet the invading army at the sea. They forced the Persians back onto their ships, the Persians in turn just sailed around Greece to invade the other side of the island only too see what appeared to be a city full of troops and the Athenian army returning (the "army in the city" was every citizen dressed up as a solider too fool the Persians).

Originally Posted by revan5

7.) So what's the wild card in all of this?

I think there are two, and one of them has already played its hand. That one is the Destroyer, and the other is Priscilla. I expect that their presence will massively foul up the anti-Organization war Miria has been planning for the last seven years. That said, I still see it happening.

I'd add Clare and Raki to that list... but that's just me.

[revan5]

Originally Posted by Aimless

@revan:

I think you are missing a couple of things in your analysis here. The idea behind a balance of power is that multiple adversarial actors remain locked in a stable and self-perpetuating stalemate by virtue of the fact that no actor can move against another without weakening himself and thereby leaving himself vulnerable to a third. If you are familiar with the game Risk, this is a fundamental principle in that game; unless you have reached a position where you are stronger than all other forces combined, the best action is to do nothing and let your opponents kill each other.

To put some math into it, the situation goes a bit like this: consider factions A, B, C etc. and lets assign them strength on a point system. Suppose that each faction starts with 100 points. Further, suppose that any faction can "spend" points in order to damage another faction on a 1-for-1 basis; that is, A can spend 10 points to lower B's strength by 10 points. Finally, suppose that each faction will recover lost points slowly over time until they reach their starting total. Lastly, any faction which is reduced to 0 dies.

Now, the game proceeds. It should be immediately clear that, barring an alliance of two or more factions, the situation is a stalemate; no faction can kill another without committing suicide. This remains true even if the starting values of the powers are changed, up to a certain point.

The effect is strongest in a three-way situation. With three players, faction A must achieve a strength greater than the combined strength of B and C in order to break the stalemate; otherwise, killing B leaves A vulnerable to C.

In a four-way situation, A must only achieve enough strength to be able to kill B and still have enough strength to force a stalemate with C and D. That is to say, A must kill B and have more remaining strength than the difference between C and D. Otherwise, A cannot kill B.

(Edit: Actually, 4-ways are almost always unstable, since except in situations where the strengths are a dead tie the strongest can always kill the weakest and have more left over than the difference between the middle two.)

In a five-way, things are bit harder. Now, A must be able to kill B with enough strength remaining that the difference between A and the strongest remaining player (call him C) is smaller than the difference between D and E. Otherwise, C could afford to immediately eliminate A.

(Edit: In light of the edit above, five-ways are tricky. Basically, no player can afford to kill another if that would leave him as the weakest member of the resulting four-way.)

Beyond this, it's a recursive relation. A can break the stalemate so long as A can kill B and have enough left over to still force stalemate conditions on the rest. Of course, by this point, alliance structures become more important than the actual power levels of the actors, but we're assuming a situation in which no faction is willing to act in concert with any other faction.

From that perspective, the balance of power was permanently broken on the Island the second that Priscilla awoke; her power was such that whichever faction controlled her could afford to eliminate the others one by one without leaving itself vulnerable to retaliation by any other group. And we see this in the way that Isley immediately began a conflict with Luciela.

The initial situation of the Org. and the three abyssals was stable (mainly because the three abyssals had a three way amongst themselves and the Org. was weak enough that they didn't care), but after Prissy awoke it no longer was so. Thus, all of the events we have seen in the manga should be interpreted in the light of a dynamic and evolving system, rather than the equilibrium suggested by a balance of power. The War in the North was the first move, but everything since then was set in motion by that event.

The situation will inevitably continue to evolve until it reaches a new stable equilibrium; ie. it will evolve until all factions but one are destroyed or until a new balance of power is established. It should be noted that balances are impossible if there are only two factions.

Thus, your questions should be answered with that in mind. Which factions will die? All factions which are not included in whatever the final equilibrium might be. However, the existence of Priscilla and the Destroyer make finding a new equilibrium extremely difficult. The Destroyer will continue attacking until it is dead, and as a result will weaken all factions.

To form a new equilibrium means that, after the Destroyer is dead, we must have two surviving factions on strength par with Priscilla. This is unlikely, even if we count Clare as one. So, I think the appropriate answer to that question is "all of them save one, dependent upon the outcome of the battle between Clare and Priscilla."

Well... that's quite a lot of rambling blather from me, and it's an oversimplification of the issue anyway. My main point is that we're past the point where balance of power is a consideration, and we're now into the inevitable downspiral of confrontation following confrontation until the end.

Well Aimless, the explanation would've taken more than I had space for, so I did my explanation of the balance of power WAY, WAY back in the thread.

My main point in my latest posts was that the balance of power, since Isley's death, has become completely undone. Priscilla didn't really factor into the equation once she left Isley and until she ate the villagers in Ticheri. After Isley's death there was nothing to make anyone hesitate in conducting actions other than threats from the top two powers. Also, you had the unprecedented position that one of the great powers (the Organization) was unaware of a hostile great power in its backyard (the Ghosts).

In actuality the island is becoming a multi-polar place, which has 2 superpowers (Priscilla and the Destroyer) and 2 great powers (the Ghosts and the Organization).

The problem, as Ryus points out so well, is that even if you get rid of the superpowers, chances are the Ghosts would lose a war of attrition. Their best chance is to sow dissent in the Organization's ranks with their knowledge. There is a chance though that perhaps the knowledge of how to create more Claymores will fall into the Ghosts' hands and perhaps a few girls will volunteer to join their ranks.

At least that would be my hope if it became a war of attrition.

[clarakiss~]

Originally Posted by [thousandmaster]

It would be funny if the number 1 rank warriors here on the island would be ranked in the 30 - 40 on the mainland, powerwise.

i think what thousand was talking about was claymores. let's say alicia and beth were shipped off to the mainland and the sisters discover shockingly they are actually ranked very low among the mainland claymores even though they were ranked 1 and 2 on the island. XD lol

[MisterJB]

Originally Posted by HegemonKhan

i agree with most said.

a good way to put all of it is:

ONLY the Organization has EXPENDABLE forces and a near unlimited supply of them.

Once Priscilla is gone, the "Priscilla faction/superpower" is gone.

Once the Destroyer is gone, the "Destroyer faction/superpower" is gone.

Once the Ghosts are gone, the "Ghosts faction/great power" is gone.

You seem to be forgetting that The Destroyer can create limitless, powerful soldiers from within her own body that are not only blindly obeddient but can also contaminate living beings who will, on their turn, contaminte other living beings thus creating an limitless army.

It is unclear, tough, if The Destroyer can control creatures like HellBeth through some kind of Soul-Link.
Personally, I don't think so. The Destroyer doesn't even have a sense of self.

[MisterJB]

Rude? Well, Hege, I certainly don't consider suggesting that a fellow user migth have forgotten something about the manga rude. You seemed to be forgetting The Destroyer's ability because you said that only The Organization had expendable forces, so, I reminded you of it. Nothing more.

Anyway, what you said is all true. However, Rimuto is the higest ranked Men in Bleack in the Organization. If someone kills him, chance are that or Dae-sama will become the next leader or the Organization leaves the Continent.

[MisterJB]

Originally Posted by HegemonKhan

HK thinks Rimuto is a fake-puppet "leader" and RUBEL is the REAL LEADER of the Organization making rimuto dance on his puppet master's strings, along with EVERYONE AND EVERYTHING ELSE !

Speaking of yourself in the third person?

Well, I won't say it's impossible but, as of now, Rubel is a spy for the DoDs.

I just had a random tougth and since I have nothing better to do, I'll share it you guys.

We all know that the Organization used the term "Voracious Eater" to cover up for their mistakes, rigth?
What if, it's the same thing with the DoDs and the War in the Mainland? What if the Organization created the DoDs for the sole purpose of being slaves to the humans? And one day, they revolted, managed to escape and this is how the War started.
And now, the Org is creating Awakened Beings to solve the problems that they caused.

Why, yes. I've watched Underworld: Ryse of the Lyncans . Why do you ask that?

[Repelsteeltju]

Originally Posted by HegemonKhan

um, it would seem so, huh. YES, obviously
(see I change my POV some times, lol)

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that's quite a possibility.

or maybe there is no other side and their dragons, as well.

all we know for sure is that Miria was unable to find the mineral/metal used to make the claymore swords on the island. however, even this doesn't mean that the metal/mineral doesn't exist on the island. For all we know, the "metal/mineral" used to create the claymore swords could be from ABs/AOs as well (maybe their bones or their claws). anything else said from/by Rubel/MiBs/Organization could be a lie.....

Well saying that that the island is the comple claymore world would be somewhat strange... Since it seems fairly small to me.

However the whole dragonkin thing could have been a lie or at least a half-truth.

[Shiek927]

Originally Posted by Repelsteeltju

Well saying that that the island is the comple claymore world would be somewhat strange... Since it seems fairly small to me.

However the whole dragonkin thing could have been a lie or at least a half-truth.

I agree; we've gotten all kinds of maps and the whole "continent" is smaller then it looks. Going out on a limb, but I think it's relatively the same size as the United States - only a couple of days to get from one end to the other.

Large, but pretty small if we're supposed to believe it's the only landmass in this entire world.

[[thousandmaster]]

I see the island being more like the country Australia. United States is too big of a land mass to be pass off as an island.

[revan5]

Originally Posted by [thousandmaster]

I see the island being more like the country Australia. United States is too big of a land mass to be pass off as an island.

Too big by far. If the Ghosts can walk from one end to another in less than a month, we're talking about an island the size of France or smaller. Australia is roughly 5000 kilometers or more from tip to tip. Even if super-human, I doubt any Ghost could walk that distance or run it for that matter in mere weeks. If the island gets any bigger than Germany or even as large as France, then the math begins to break down.

My personal estimate is we're dealing with an island roughly the size of Portugal or bigger, like the main isle of the British Isles.

[[thousandmaster]]

If it's true like you say it is, the 47 claymores patrol areas would be somewhat small.

[revan5]

Originally Posted by [thousandmaster]

If it's true like you say it is, the 47 claymores patrol areas would be somewhat small.

Patrol areas for single Claymores have to make sense in terms of scale. The girls cannot run everywhere, so relatively small patrol areas make the most sense. I think an area the size of Portugal would work just about perfectly for our island. You could walk from edge to edge in a relatively short time, but the climate can differ dramatically depending on altitude and latitude. Also, note how fast Dietrich got from the Southern Lands to the center where Rabona is. There's no way that she could have done that so quickly if the island is any bigger than France.

I don't care if she's superhuman, her legs would "break" if they went too fast, so there is a limit to her long-distance speed.

[Ryus]

Originally Posted by revan5

Patrol areas for single Claymores have to make sense in terms of scale. The girls cannot run everywhere, so relatively small patrol areas make the most sense. I think an area the size of Portugal would work just about perfectly for our island. You could walk from edge to edge in a relatively short time, but the climate can differ dramatically depending on altitude and latitude. Also, note how fast Dietrich got from the Southern Lands to the center where Rabona is. There's no way that she could have done that so quickly if the island is any bigger than France.

I don't care if she's superhuman, her legs would "break" if they went too fast, so there is a limit to her long-distance speed.

I agree with you in principle but I still wonder why Clare had walked for 3 days straight at the beginning of Chapter 1 then...

Maybe she had just been assigned a new area... or maybe she was very slow due to being #47 and only a quarter yoma back then... Whatever the reason I'm curious as to why.