[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 5 End of the golden witch

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Antera Caramichael

We don't know what happened between the events of 1986 and 1998, except Ange's highschool life. So we don't know how Eva succeed to prove her innocence to the court, but like you said, Ange thought Eva was the culprit since the begining, it didn't even went through her head that she was hurt like, or even more than her.

Eva said this to Ange:

Originally Posted by Eva from the Tanabata TIPS

We are connected because we are aunt and niece. But, we are also connected in that I have lost a child, and you have lost your parents. And we cannot trick ourselves into thinking of each other as replacements for our lost family. Even so, I think of you as my own child. So if you......could allow that, then I'd like you to think of me as your mother, and I want you to rely on me for whatever you need.

Originally Posted by Tanabata TIPS

Ange understood the the meaning of those words, and the affection verging on sorrow.
But as would be expected from a child her age, she needed some time to accept this......

Eva's words probably made Ange realize that Eva was hurt. It was only after some moron intervened that she turned cold to Eva.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Ssol

Eva's words probably made Ange realize that Eva was hurt. It was only after some moron intervened that she turned cold to Eva.

Like I said: Poor Eva.

Speaking of which, what is Bern, then? If Bern can have such an effect on reality, she has to have some sort of vessel... and I would think it would have to be someone relatively close to Ange to convince her like that.

...Asumu?

[Antera Caramichael]

I think more of a personnification of a part of Ange feeling.
On the top of the skycraper, she decided to leave for her journey. If you look through her intervention, it could fit.
Bernkastel want to win the game, and by so, find a rationnal explanation of the events. So she became the personnification of this quest for Ange I think.

[Ithekro]

If we attempt to assign a person to Bern....who would that be? Who has the personality to just want to win...no matter what? Does she have a score to settle (that would seem to be Lambda towards Bern really)? If we start trying to place faces to all the witches, then if Beatrice is Shannon, like many seem to think....who are Bern and Lambda?

[Antera Caramichael]

I think that a magical character/a real character, should work more for the furnitures (for example Rudolph/Sloth, Kyrie/Envy), but I highly doubt that Witches and Voyagers can be characters, since they are in a lot higher layer than the others.

For example, I highly doubt that the Beatrice from the Meta-world is a character more than she is like Bern says "the personnification of the rules of this world".
I have made a theory about that but I am too tire to search for it ^^"

[Renall]

I've said this plenty of times before, but: Based on the presentation of ep3, Eva cannot have killed the majority of the victims even if she was the murderer of some of them.

Servants and Kinzo: Impossible unless some detail was not provided, or the adults were lying about staying at the conference until morning. I'm willing to believe the adults on this one, which means none of them could possibly have done it without the participation or notice of the others.

Rosa and Maria: Eva could have done this.

Rudolf, Hideyoshi, and Kyrie: Almost impossible. Eva would have needed to leave the guesthouse and gone to the mansion, then returned unnoticed. The notion that Hideyoshi got in a fight with the other two seems more likely.

Krauss and Natsuhi: Eva could have done this.

George: Eva couldn't have done this, and more to the point, WOULDN'T have done this.

Nanjo: Eva couldn't have done this. Red text, Battler as an alibi, it's impossible.

Battler: Well, as far as we know Eva could have and did, but we don't know for certain if that's true.

Jessica: I don't see why Eva has any reason to know where Jessica is or any particular motive to find her at this point. Jessica probably hid until the midnight disaster, and died unable to save herself.

[Volcanic]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

Speaking of which, what is Bern, then? If Bern can have such an effect on reality, she has to have some sort of vessel... and I would think it would have to be someone relatively close to Ange to convince her like that.

...Asumu?

This makes me think: Ange most definitely knew her Father was married before, and that Battler was her half-brother, but had she heard about Asumu specifically? Had Battler mentioned his mother was named Asumu to her? She was just a little girl, but still...

I really think Ange and Eva could have been a perfect little family, and Ange didn't just decide she didn't like Eva and not get along with her. Somebody must have given that little push that ruined everything.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Antera Caramichael

I think that a magical character/a real character, should work more for the furnitures (for example Rudolph/Sloth, Kyrie/Envy), but I highly doubt that Witches and Voyagers can be characters, since they are in a lot higher layer than the others.

For example, I highly doubt that the Beatrice from the Meta-world is a character more than she is like Bern says "the personnification of the rules of this world".
I have made a theory about that but I am too tire to search for it ^^"

ALL Meta-characters seem to need some kind of vessel, whether this be a person or an object. The Stakes are obviously... the stakes... The Siestas seem to be some strange combination between the Winchesters and Maria's rabbits, Virgilia is Kumasawa, and Ronove is Genji. (Battler and Erika are obviously Battler and Erika.)

The theory is that Beatrice is Shannon... so who or what, then, are Bern, Lambda, and, for that matter, Gaap? (Well, Gaap could easily be one of the other servants, like Renon... no one said the vessels had to be ON the island...)

Note: Witches and Demons seem to always be humans, while ordinary Furniture appears to simply be objects.

Originally Posted by Volcanic

I really think Ange and Eva could have been a perfect little family, and Ange didn't just decide she didn't like Eva and not get along with her. Somebody must have given that little push that ruined everything.

Exactly. Ange was six. Most six-year-olds do not just up and choose to hate people who show them kindness when their family has just died.

[momobunny]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

ALL Meta-characters seem to need some kind of vessel, whether this be a person or an object. The Stakes are obviously... the stakes... The Siestas seem to be some strange combination between the Winchesters and Maria's rabbits, Virgilia is Kumasawa, and Ronove is Genji. (Battler and Erika are obviously Battler and Erika.)

The theory is that Beatrice is Shannon... so who, then, are Bern, Lambda, and, for that matter, Gaap? (Well, Gaap could easily be one of the other servants, like Renon... no one said the vessels had to be ON the island...)

Hmmm... there was a theory that the Stakes each represent one of the parents. But I just thought... when it comes to Eva, isn't that Eva-Beatrice's role? Things got confusing later on... and she seemed to have separated herself from Eva. In Episode 4, Ange sees her as "The Black Witch" who was possessing Kasumi.

Anyway, is it possible for the magical characters to have more than one vessel? Or for the humans or objects to be a vessel to more than one magical character?

[Antera Caramichael]

One don't contradict the other. The Stake can be part of the parents character, like Kyrie her Envy, and Rudolf his lazyness...

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Renall

I've said this plenty of times before, but: Based on the presentation of ep3, Eva cannot have killed the majority of the victims even if she was the murderer of some of them.

Servants and Kinzo: Impossible unless some detail was not provided, or the adults were lying about staying at the conference until morning. I'm willing to believe the adults on this one, which means none of them could possibly have done it without the participation or notice of the others.

I can't believe this discussion is back from the grave.

Why is it impossible that the scene at the end of the conference is false? I don't think anyone of the adults lied about the conference but I think what we were shown was not true. As I said before the last time we discussed this, I don't think it's possible that Krauss or Natsuhi were involved. It's possible that the conference ended much earlier than what we were shown.

If you are basing all of this on the adults behavior I find that argument incredibly weak considering almost everyone is shown to have lied or concealed the truth at some point.

The possibility exists that Eva was somehow involved in the first twilight from episode 3. If she was involved then she was not working alone. Her motive was to eliminate the servants who continued to lie about Kinzo's status. This would force Natsuhi and Krauss to reveal the truth about Kinzo.

Is this the most likely scenario? Probably not since there are plenty of other theories out there.
Can it be absolutely ruled out? Definitely not. This is not impossible as you claim.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Maho Momo

Hmmm... there was a theory that the Stakes each represent one of the parents. But I just thought... when it comes to Eva, isn't that Eva-Beatrice's role? Things got confusing later on... and she seemed to have separated herself from Eva. In Episode 4, Ange sees her as "The Black Witch" who was possessing Kasumi.

This is because schizophrenia runs strong in the Ushiromiya family.

>_>

Eva-Beatrice isn't Meta-Eva... she's something else that's been inside Eva for a very long time, if you ask me.

Originally Posted by Maho Momo

Anyway, is it possible for the magical characters to have more than one vessel? Or for the humans or objects to be a vessel to more than one magical character?

I have no idea....

Originally Posted by Antera Caramichael

One don't contradict the other. The Stake can be part of the parents character, like Kyrie her Envy, and Rudolf his lazyness...

The only reason the parents can really be associated with each stake is because the stakes are used on people who have committed the sin they represent. This tends to change each episode.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

Like I said: Poor Eva.

Speaking of which, what is Bern, then? If Bern can have such an effect on reality, she has to have some sort of vessel... and I would think it would have to be someone relatively close to Ange to convince her like that.

...Asumu?

Is it possible that Bern represents one of the culprits? She was supposedly interfering in Episode 1 and 2, although we have no idea what she was doing. Then the culprit's plan goes awry in Episode 3, the round where Bern is distracted with Ange and Lambda starts acting openly (possibly representing a different culprit). Then in Episode 4, both Bern and Lambda are directly participating, and we get signs of two culprits going around killing people.

[Marion]

Why do Bern and Lambda have to represent people on the gameboard? It's not as if they appear on the gameboard themselves, unlike Erika for example. Bern can be taken as a representation of miracles occurring, albeit twisted sometimes (Ange gets her family back, but Natsuhi is turned into the culprit and 7 people die - Erika survives the shipwreck). Lambda represents certainty and the will to get the job done and since Bern wonders if it was Lambda doing the call to Natsuhi then maybe the 19th person's will to frame Natsuhi and kill the people is personified by Lambda because of his strong will to do it.

[Used Can]

I think the only people who have vessels in the real world are those who are pieces in the gameboard. Bern and Lambda do not fall under that category; so, I do not think they have vessels.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Ssol

I can't believe this discussion is back from the grave.

Why is it impossible that the scene at the end of the conference is false? I don't think anyone of the adults lied about the conference but I think what we were shown was not true. As I said before the last time we discussed this, I don't think it's possible that Krauss or Natsuhi were involved. It's possible that the conference ended much earlier than what we were shown.

Why would we be shown a scene as random as the conference ending at 6am with everyone tired and disoriented from the long debate and be expected to guess that it is false? When has a "real" scene ever been portrayed in a manner that suggests to the reader it is completely fabricated? There were no magic elements involved. The line was practically a throwaway from Rosa. What does ryukishi gain from being so pointlessly misleading?

If you are basing all of this on the adults behavior I find that argument incredibly weak considering almost everyone is shown to have lied or concealed the truth at some point.

Generally, when someone seems to be lying, they're tense, or nervous. The behavior of the adults on the second day toward one another is not tense in that fashion. They seem to be pulling together, and no suspicions arise until Rosa turns up dead. They simply do not behave like people who suspect one another of murder. Yet in other games they are willing to go that far.

What could have led to this certainty that they can trust each other? The fact that they were all together.

The possibility exists that Eva was somehow involved in the first twilight from episode 3. If she was involved then she was not working alone. Her motive was to eliminate the servants who continued to lie about Kinzo's status. This would force Natsuhi and Krauss to reveal the truth about Kinzo.

Is this the most likely scenario? Probably not since there are plenty of other theories out there.
Can it be absolutely ruled out? Definitely not. This is not impossible as you claim.

Of course it can be ruled out. Absent bad writing, the only way for that theory to work is if:

1) Everything we were told about the ep3 family conference was an outright lie, and all the adults behaved the next morning in conformity with that lie. Seven people, keeping one fake story straight. With no emotional reaction. And they were all faking being exhausted from staying up all night, which by this theory they might not have done. Right.

2) More than one adult or pairing of adults committed the First Twilight. If anyone left for long, they'd have noticed. The only explanation is that they all did it. But you'd have to leave an explanation for Krauss and Natsuhi being absent. No evidence suggests they were. So that means Krauss and Natsuhi would have to do it.

3) The motives are screwed up and nonsensical. Kinzo being burnt points a finger at the people who knew he was already dead. Why would the other siblings need to fake Kinzo's "murder" to pressure Krauss, who already knows? What's the point of "pressuring" Krauss if you actually "kill" Kinzo? He's dead now, inheritance time. And what point is there to committing five murders to conceal the one death you actually want revealed? The First Twilight works against the adults and in favor of Krauss. Even if you believe Krauss and Natsuhi somehow managed to do it, the blame doesn't get laid at the feet of Eva. She has no reason to cover up Kinzo's death. If anything, Eva seems to have long since already suspected it. All she needs is for Krauss to admit it. Why wreck that one chance by committing a pointless crime?

The entire First Twilight looks like it was set up by a person with little or no personal stake (no pun intended) in the family's financial troubles. Economically, it doesn't benefit Eva/Rudolf/Rosa. Logistically, it doesn't benefit Krauss ("killing" Kinzo might be a good way to reveal his death without admitting you covered it up, but killing all your servants at the same time makes it harder to operate). I can't speculate on who it could be (though the only people really left are Nanjo, George, and Maria). But it wasn't Eva.

[Antera Caramichael]

Originally Posted by Renall

Why would we be shown a scene as random as the conference ending at 6am with everyone tired and disoriented from the long debate and be expected to guess that it is false? When has a "real" scene ever been portrayed in a manner that suggests to the reader it is completely fabricated? There were no magic elements involved. The line was practically a throwaway from Rosa. What does ryukishi gain from being so pointlessly misleading?

Well.... Misleading us maybe?
More seriously, showing us than we can't trust anything other than what Battler see (When he is not drunk or see dead people).
After, it is not necessarily the scene that is false but the clock that is wrong =p

Originally Posted by Renall

Generally, when someone seems to be lying, they're tense, or nervous. The behavior of the adults on the second day toward one another is not tense in that fashion. They seem to be pulling together, and no suspicions arise until Rosa turns up dead. They simply do not behave like people who suspect one another of murder. Yet in other games they are willing to go that far.

[...]

1) Everything we were told about the ep3 family conference was an outright lie, and all the adults behaved the next morning in conformity with that lie. Seven people, keeping one fake story straight. With no emotional reaction. And they were all faking being exhausted from staying up all night, which by this theory they might not have done. Right.

IT IS POSSIBLE. Just get some theatre lessons and you'll learn how to face a room of 500 people, so faking that...
Generally, it is the pictures that are exagerating the reactions of the protagonists, in the real world, someone can easily with a minimum of selfcontrol to put a mask.
It is more true if you are in business, you have to learn that minimum, overwise you're dead or won't last long...

That doesn't mean that I believe that they suspect each other, what I want to prove is that you can fake your reactions, behavior.
Your theory is coherent.

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Renall

Why would we be shown a scene as random as the conference ending at 6am with everyone tired and disoriented from the long debate and be expected to guess that it is false? When has a "real" scene ever been portrayed in a manner that suggests to the reader it is completely fabricated? There were no magic elements involved. The line was practically a throwaway from Rosa. What does ryukishi gain from being so pointlessly misleading?

There are plenty of scenes that are misleading and we don't know which scenes are red herrings and which are true. It's way too early to claim that there is no point to misleading the audience in any given scene.

Originally Posted by Renall

Generally, when someone seems to be lying, they're tense, or nervous. The behavior of the adults on the second day toward one another is not tense in that fashion. They seem to be pulling together, and no suspicions arise until Rosa turns up dead. They simply do not behave like people who suspect one another of murder. Yet in other games they are willing to go that far.

What could have led to this certainty that they can trust each other? The fact that they were all together.

Kumasawa is proven to be hiding the truth about Kinzo yet is neither tense nor nervous. In fact it is the opposite case.

Originally Posted by Renall

Of course it can be ruled out. Absent bad writing, the only way for that theory to work is if:

1) Everything we were told about the ep3 family conference was an outright lie, and all the adults behaved the next morning in conformity with that lie. Seven people, keeping one fake story straight. With no emotional reaction. And they were all faking being exhausted from staying up all night, which by this theory they might not have done. Right.

From Battler's point of view, are you able to provide any quote where he notices the adults are fatigued or do any of the adults mention they stayed up all night to him? I won't trust any scene regarding the adults behavior that Battler does not witness.

Originally Posted by Renall

2) More than one adult or pairing of adults committed the First Twilight. If anyone left for long, they'd have noticed. The only explanation is that they all did it. But you'd have to leave an explanation for Krauss and Natsuhi being absent. No evidence suggests they were. So that means Krauss and Natsuhi would have to do it.

I said the conference ended way earlier than was shown. No one left the conference and returned later like you are suggesting. It ended.

Originally Posted by Renall

3) The motives are screwed up and nonsensical. Kinzo being burnt points a finger at the people who knew he was already dead. Why would the other siblings need to fake Kinzo's "murder" to pressure Krauss, who already knows? What's the point of "pressuring" Krauss if you actually "kill" Kinzo? He's dead now, inheritance time. And what point is there to committing five murders to conceal the one death you actually want revealed? The First Twilight works against the adults and in favor of Krauss. Even if you believe Krauss and Natsuhi somehow managed to do it, the blame doesn't get laid at the feet of Eva. She has no reason to cover up Kinzo's death. If anything, Eva seems to have long since already suspected it. All she needs is for Krauss to admit it. Why wreck that one chance by committing a pointless crime?

If they faked Kinzo's death that would be the perfect way to reveal if Kinzo is alive or not.
From their view:
If he really was alive then Krauss and Natsuhi would be forced to show Kinzo alive after the corpse is discovered.
If he really was not alive then they still would have to reveal that Kinzo died in the past because Natsuhi and Krauss would know that the corpse must not be Kinzo's.
Either way Kinzo's status is revealed, which is the whole point.

Originally Posted by Renall

The entire First Twilight looks like it was set up by a person with little or no personal stake (no pun intended) in the family's financial troubles. Economically, it doesn't benefit Eva/Rudolf/Rosa. Logistically, it doesn't benefit Krauss ("killing" Kinzo might be a good way to reveal his death without admitting you covered it up, but killing all your servants at the same time makes it harder to operate). I can't speculate on who it could be (though the only people really left are Nanjo, George, and Maria). But it wasn't Eva.

The first twilight was planned well in advance. As I said before the goal was to have Kinzo's status revealed. Going as far as mass murder is possible if you are in dire financial trouble and needed IMMEDIATE CASH (which they all were).

[Ithekro]

The problems become which group did it...and how...if all the groups were together, none have the opportunity to commit mass murder. Only one group knows Kinzo is dead for a fact. Two groups suspect it and the last group is just going along for the ride (Rosa). However for the later groups, they have to get Kinzo's body, and elimitate the servants. For Krauss, Kinzo's body is not the problem...how much loyalty do you need to have to be able to have your servents kill themselves off, and then probably betray the last one so you can close the circle?

Then to make it complicated with the closed rooms to hide that Kinzo's burnt body had been dead for well over a year. That takes planning and time. Too much time if it is to be done by anyone just the servents or someone that isn't the parents....if they actually are all together that night.

They can't all be working together on the mass murders because they would have conflicting motives that cannot mess. Thus for it to be the parents, one must either get Krauss/Natsuhi away from the group, or some of the group away from Krauss/Natsuhi.

So someplace there is a lie.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Ssol

There are plenty of scenes that are misleading and we don't know which scenes are red herrings and which are true. It's way too early to claim that there is no point to misleading the audience in any given scene.

There's really nothing about it that's all that important though. Normally if something isn't true, we're given a hint to doubt it. We're not really given anything of the sort here.

Kumasawa is proven to be hiding the truth about Kinzo yet is neither tense nor nervous. In fact it is the opposite case.

Uhhhh, we're talking about the same Kumasawa, right? Crazy old lady's constantly nervous or shifty. Could it be an act? Sure. But she can't keep a straight face. And Kinzo's been dead for ages. You can practice a lie over time. The First Twilight happened mere hours ago. For a bunch of exhausted adults to fake that... it stretches all credibility.

From Battler's point of view, are you able to provide any quote where he notices the adults are fatigued or do any of the adults mention they stayed up all night to him? I won't trust any scene regarding the adults behavior that Battler does not witness.

Then the game is basically pointless if everything Battler isn't present for is completely untrue. Some of it might be, but I don't want to doubt things that haven't been presented in a manner that suggests I ought to be critical. There is such a thing as being too much of a skeptic.

I said the conference ended way earlier than was shown. No one left the conference and returned later like you are suggesting. It ended.

And then everyone did what, exactly? And if it ended, why didn't anyone's behavior the next day - where Battler was present - reflect that manner of suspicion?

If they faked Kinzo's death that would be the perfect way to reveal if Kinzo is alive or not.
From their view:
If he really was alive then Krauss and Natsuhi would be forced to show Kinzo alive after the corpse is discovered.
If he really was not alive then they still would have to reveal that Kinzo died in the past because Natsuhi and Krauss would know that the corpse must not be Kinzo's.
Either way Kinzo's status is revealed, which is the whole point.

They didn't "fake" Kinzo's death. That was Kinzo's body. And everyone else was murdered. Unless you're suggesting the corpse that was burned wasn't Kinzo's. After ep5, I find that statement ridiculous. It was Kinzo. Painting him as a murder victim with the others conceals the fact that he was already dead. It does not work any other way. It does not make anyone who was suspicious more likely to conclude he was already dead. To reason otherwise is insane.

The first twilight was planned well in advance. As I said before the goal was to have Kinzo's status revealed. Going as far as mass murder is possible if you are in dire financial trouble and needed IMMEDIATE CASH (which they all were).

If that were the case, why not make up an excuse to leave the conference very early, as happened in ep1? And as you have failed completely to show otherwise, I have to ask once again: How does the ep3 FT in any way benefit anyone's financial situation? All they need is an admission from Krauss that Kinzo is dead. Kumasawa, Gohda, Genji, Kanon, and Shannon do not have to be killed to achieve this result. If the adults really wanted, they could've captured Krauss and Natsuhi at the conference by force, marched him upstairs to Kinzo's study, and forced him to either confess or find a way to let them inside.

It's an illogical and pointless response to a problem that doesn't require it. If Kinzo is alive, they force their way in and see him. If Kinzo is dead, they find his body and make Krauss admit it. Even if, somehow, Krauss is using Nanjo or whoever as his agent to conceal Kinzo's earlier death with another set of murders (which is an extreme I don't think Krauss has the stomach for), that doesn't involve Eva. It never conforms to her motives. It never serves her ends. It just doesn't make any sense to consider her as a suspect.

The ep3 FT's killer did not have the revelation of Kinzo's earlier death as a motive. If he knew Kinzo was dead, he took steps to conceal that this fact was already known (perhaps because Krauss would realize that only one or two people are left who would realize he was pre-deceased). If he didn't know Kinzo was dead, he destroyed the body once he discovered it, possibly to make it look like there was one more victim than there really was.