[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[Renall]

I don't see why we should appeal to arbitrary universal restrictions when we can just ascribe things to malice. Bern is evil and malicious and there is very little that checks her power. She can "find" what she wants to find and use half-truths as she wishes.

She could well have been half-truthful in the sense of "this is the only Lion fragment [that I bothered looking for / that fits my criteria for Lion + tragedy / that I felt like tracking down]," but that's as reliable as her promise to Ange.

[Wanderer]

The whole concept of "moving to a bigger catbox" is strange to begin with. The boundary of a catbox is determined by knowledge. To make a catbox bigger would require a reduction in knowledge.

I suppose it's a matter of what assumptions are being worked from. If you remove a previous assumption that you've been working from, you can increase the size of the catbox (in this case, the assumption that information suggesting the existence of Yasu instead of Lion is false- of course this seems absurd, as Lion would be well-known at school and so forth). However, I suppose that this is possible since we ourselves have no completely reliable information about anything in Umineko.

It truly is an epistemological nightmare.

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As for probability, an infinite number of die rolls does not mean an infinite number of each possible result. It just means that the probability of rolling that given number more than 0 times is infinitely close to 100%. That isn't exactly the same as 100%, though.

It's definitely an issue related to Bern's and Lambda's respective powers- how Lambda can make probabilities infinitely close to 100%, and Bern can find a solution no matter how close to 0% its probability is.

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As for universal restrictions; whether fantasy kakera, or kakera with prime-verifiable falsehoods such as Eva's death, are "legitimate" is really up to the observer, isn't it? In other words, it's the observer who ultimately determines the "universal restrictions" of the set of worlds they encounter. Bern I can often see as representing a part of an observer's internal process of deciding which restrictions are intellectually necessary to constitute "legitimate" kakera. Of course, since she's evil she will adjust the level of restriction for maximum possible cruelty.

Originally Posted by Renall

I don't see why we should appeal to arbitrary universal restrictions when we can just ascribe things to malice.

Well, it'd make her lying a lot less dumb if what she claimed wasn't logically impossible to begin with.

[haguruma]

Originally Posted by Renall

No one can give me a single good reason why tragedy must happen though. Because no one can, because that's ridiculous.

Though this quote is from a page back, it encompasses what I want to comment on.

I never wanted to say that the possibility of a happy end is impossible, it is, like you said, very likely that it exists somewhere if Kakera are really endless. The problem is not it's existence but that it's existence poses no significance to the people that ran into tragedy.

Within the When they Cry universe we are spectating witches and become tangled up in it the more we try to find that instance that pleases us perfectly, be it happiness or misery.
That, at least for me, is the tragedy behind the witches, which was even implied during Chiru of applying to Bernkastel. Witches have lost contact with the world, they traveled so many, seen so much variations of the same events, they have grown bored so many times but are incapable of allowing themselves to die. This makes them less and less human, because interacting with the human world frustrates them so easily. They want all perfect options at once, never to allow even one single flaw to it, and that makes them inhuman.

What significance does the existence of a happy Kakera, which to humans is nothing more than a fantasy, have for the people who had to endure tragedy? To know that it might have been better? That is basically Maria's magic of happiness. Coating over your own reality with a sweet lie of probability.
Does it make people happier to know that there might have been a way for them to have a happy end? Can the dead rest more peacefully if they are adorned with a story of glory?

It might be that what I draw from Umineko is completely different from what you see in it, but for me it deconstructed the positivity of this act of hanging unto fiction much more than it praised it.
Ange was well on her way of becoming a witch herself and was only able to move on once she let go of trying to find a chance to change the inevitable. Yes, a small miracle was granted to her, but even that came at a price. She had to admit to herself that the brother she knew was dead (though in a psychological sense), all that she achieved by letting her obsession go she had done before she ever got to know that though.

EDIT: And regarding Bern's statement, I would still say that she was bending the truth while not outright lying.
Let's actually assume that observing Kakera is actually necessary to know about their content, you don't just immediately have the knowledge of all Kakera when becoming a witch. And let's also assume that the chance of running into a happy Lion fragment is lower than running into a tragic fragment.
0＝Tragic
1＝Happy
So an event chain of a witch could look like this: 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-0
There is a chance of there following a happy fragment, but after a while you start to despair and believe in probability more than hope. Bern is described as spiteful, filled with hatred for everyone happier than her...so she would give into a belief in a law of tragedy much more easily and actually want to make people believe it. And even if that happy end comes, it does not make her happy, because she exists on after that happy end has passed and has to experience further tragedies.

[AuraTwilight]

As for probability, an infinite number of die rolls does not mean an infinite number of each possible result. It just means that the probability of rolling that given number more than 0 times is infinitely close to 100%. That isn't exactly the same as 100%, though.

*Facepalm* Except yes, it does. Because if you're rolling the dice infinitely, there's never going to be a time when you're done rolling, meaning you'll keep getting atleast one result of each possibility, forever, without end. Some results might have LARGER infinities, but each result will occur an infinite number of times.

[Drifloon]

Is there really any difference between being 'infinitely close' to 100% and being 100%? >_>

[AuraTwilight]

Mathematically? Yes.

[Wanderer]

Originally Posted by Drifloon

Is there really any difference between being 'infinitely close' to 100% and being 100%? >_>

All the difference in the world, to a witch.

After a little research I found that I got my terminology a bit wrong. The probability is considered "100%", but the difference I was trying to point out is nevertheless recognized by mathematicians- it's not a "sure" chance, it's "almost sure".

[Uberzaki]

Thought I'd stir up the flames of conversation again, but I'll try to keep my post brief.

My personal belief is this could be seen as clue of some sort, especially if the Winchesters are never loaded:

What's the point on the wolf-and-sheep analogy that Rosa brings up? She has a freakin' gun to defend herself against any potential 'wolves'! Sure, a gun isn't perfect protection but it has a hell of presence.

[Golden Bug-Hunter]

Even someone with a gun can be taken down if you have the benefit of surprise to knife them in the back. If Rosa is looking the other way and she's surrounded by 'wolves', then the gun doesn't do much for her at all.

[AuraTwilight]

Exactly right. And what if the wolf has a concealed firearm like a pistol? She doesn't have the benefit of the Red to rule stuff like that out.

[Kiltias]

Originally Posted by Golden Bug-Hunter

Even someone with a gun can be taken down if you have the benefit of surprise to knife them in the back. If Rosa is looking the other way and she's surrounded by 'wolves', then the gun doesn't do much for her at all.

If anything the scene with "Zombie Kanon" had Genji portrayed as rather skilled with Knives.


On another note:
Quick question to EP 1 about Hideyoshi and Eva.
They were alive at 7 yet in the Manga the clock said 7:30 when the smell came in.(Kinzo)
Nanjo said Hideyoshi is dead for about an hour.
Of course Nanjo could have lied seeing him as the Accomplice.
Yet, Hideyoshi was in the tub with the shower being on and on hot.
Hot water speeds up Rigor Mortis and allows to help fake the time of death.

I just wonder, what's the point of doing so?
If Nanjo is an accomplice he could have just lied, yet with the hot water the only one tricked is Nanjo or what was the purpose?

[Renall]

They must have a heck of a hot water system for a shower to stay hot for any length of time. Mine goes cold in about half an hour.

My guess is Ryukishi didn't intend the water to have a specific effect on the state of the body (especially since Eva is dead the next room over and she wouldn't get the same treatment, so Nanjo would notice a discrepancy if he was supposed to). Easier to just say Nanjo lied.

[Uberzaki]

I guess I'll have to accept the not-invincible-argument, although since Rosa is an accomplice it seems to be an excuse to keep most of the characters in one place.

[Kiltias]

Originally Posted by Renall

They must have a heck of a hot water system for a shower to stay hot for any length of time. Mine goes cold in about half an hour.

My guess is Ryukishi didn't intend the water to have a specific effect on the state of the body (especially since Eva is dead the next room over and she wouldn't get the same treatment, so Nanjo would notice a discrepancy if he was supposed to). Easier to just say Nanjo lied.

Nah, Kanon brought the attention immediately to Hideyoshi when Nanjo entered along with Natsuhi and Genji.
Besides, the bath was right next to the door.
And Nanjo didn't even check for Evas time of death because he had checked Hideyoshis already and even if he wanted to George came right next and got onto Eva.

[Renall]

Right but, your point was whether Nanjo was fooled. Why try to fool Nanjo when he's an accomplice? It isn't needed. Nobody else seems to have a clue about determining time of death, so they all trust him on that, meaning there's no reason to give him "help" to confuse the issue. He'd be the only person who could even know.

[GreyZone]

Did Battler ever enter the room?

[Wanderer]

Originally Posted by Kiltias

Quick question to EP 1 about Hideyoshi and Eva.
They were alive at 7 yet in the Manga the clock said 7:30 when the smell came in.(Kinzo)
Nanjo said Hideyoshi is dead for about an hour.
Of course Nanjo could have lied seeing him as the Accomplice.
Yet, Hideyoshi was in the tub with the shower being on and on hot.
Hot water speeds up Rigor Mortis and allows to help fake the time of death.

Nanjo: "No signs of postmortem lividity... Rigor mortis hasn't begun either".

Funny, because Wikipedia says postmortem lividity and rigor mortis are the same thing. Not sure if it's Ryuukishi's error, Witch-hunt's, Wikipedia's.

Anyway, the hot water trick would only be useful if the corpse were observed after rigor mortis had already been produced by it. And that's not the case for Hideyoshi.

Originally Posted by Uberzaki

I guess I'll have to accept the not-invincible-argument, although since Rosa is an accomplice it seems to be an excuse to keep most of the characters in one place.

Remember, the puzzle itself was about never having more wolves in one place than sheep. It would suggest that everyone staying together would make the wolves unable to act. Yet Rosa, apparently obsessed with "wolves" is the one who always initiates the split-ups. A while back I observed that if the "wolves" consist of ShKanon, Genji, Gohda, and Rosa (Nanjo and Kumasawa are actually not at all necessary as accomplices in EP2), Rosa twice engineered groups that had wolves outnumber sheep. First she sent Kanon and Gohda after Jessica (2v1), then she banished Shannon, Genji, Gohda, Kumasawa, and Nanjo (3v2).

This of course makes sense from Yasu's motivation as well, as it's pretty hard to create any kind of mystery if you and everyone else is in the same place.

Although a great deal of my confidence in this interpretation was undermined from Our Confessions.

And not exactly part of the wolf and sheep puzzle discussion, but it just dawned on me that Yasu couldn't know that George would volunteer to go with the servants. Sacrificing Genji was probably the original plan, or, if she suspected George volunteering, at least the backup plan.

Originally Posted by GreyZone

Did Battler ever enter the room?

No. He was in the hallway the whole time.

[battle22]

http://07th-expansion.net/Cgi/clip/clip.cgi
Can anyone translate if new When They Cry is really announced?

[AuraTwilight]

Er...that looks like Rose Guns Days Season 2, to me.

[Wanderer]

I'll do my best. Corrections welcome.

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僕がテレビでドラマ見ても、大抵の場合、“同業者アイ”が働いてしまって、面白い面白くないじゃなく、“シ ナリオが上手いな”とか“それが見せたい絵だったのね”みたいなシナリオ技術的なものを見てしまうのですが ……。

今日の相棒は面白かった！！！
まだ興奮が覚めません。
うーーん、本当に面白かった！！

畜生畜生スゴイスゴイ！　ヤバイよ胸が熱くなる！
“なく頃に”のプロット作り、もっかい練り直すぜ！！

When I watch a TV drama, I always end up viewing it as another writer's "work", not looking at whether it's enjoyable or not, but as a technical thing- "is it a good scenario?" or "ah, this is the 'picture' they wanted to show me."...But...

Today's 'partner' was really enjoyable!!!
I'm still exited.
Maaaan... it really was enjoyable!!!

Dammit dammit, so amazing! Uh oh, my passion is burning!
I'm gonna try making another When They Cry plot!!

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So, yeah, sounds like it's gonna happen. Anyone know if this summer's release of Rose Guns Days is its last installment?