News Stories

[Ithekro]

Crimea didn't put up a stand that the media could use in a Tiananmen way.

[LoveYouSaber]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

Russia just basically invaded a neighboring country and took a bite and i don't see any serious economic sanctions being put in place.

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Crimea didn't put up a stand that the media could use in a Tiananmen way.

Indeed. The Russians didn't have to do much, and to outsiders, it seems that the citizens half welcome them there. If say the Russians went in and started indiscriminatingly shoot unarmed citizens there, I am sure there would be a tremendous uproar.

But back to the Hong Kong situation, I already stated that I don't think a tough military crackdown will be forthcoming, and so conversely I (and most of the Hong Kong people) don't expect support from Western governments. The important bit for us is not to turn those demonstrations into violent ones and give the Chinese government any leeway to paint the activities as riots or revolutions and thus being able to justify their use of the People's Liberation Army (if they really decide to use it).

I also see possible economic sanctions from the US towards China as a signal to send to its Asian allies. If the US, fearful of the damage done to its own economy, were not willing to use economic sanctions in the extreme circumstances of Tiananmen V2, her Asian allies and potential allies would serious question the US commitment try to protect them from China. Given the importance of the Asian region to the US right now, I doubt the US would wish to send out a weak signal that would lead to desertion amongst her allies and other Asian countries.

[Jazzrat]

Originally Posted by LoveYouSaber

I also see possible economic sanctions from the US towards China as a signal to send to its Asian allies. If the US, fearful of the damage done to its own economy, were not willing to use economic sanctions in the extreme circumstances of Tiananmen V2, her Asian allies and potential allies would serious question the US commitment try to protect them from China. Given the importance of the Asian region to the US right now, I doubt the US would wish to send out a weak signal that would lead to desertion amongst her allies and other Asian countries.

I don't think that would happen in the current state of world economy. As long as it remain a peaceful demonstration, most countries would just offer vocal support and diplomatic pressure for China to review it's current legislation on HK. Even if it gets violent, i think most country would turn a blind eye over it with nothing but word of condemnation and regret.

Nothing changed for the Tibetan during the violent protest in 2008, i don't really expect any changes in the international community for the HK either.

[Bre]

Idk what we are even talking about

[Ithekro]

I don't remember any reports on anything happening in Tibet in 2008.

[ganbaru]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

I don't remember any reports on anything happening in Tibet in 2008.

I can't say if the year is right but, few year ago there was news about protests followed by some repression . If I remember right, part of the reasons of the trouble was the effort to assimilate Tibetans into the rest of China.

[Jazzrat]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

I don't remember any reports on anything happening in Tibet in 2008.

A series of rioting and protest in Tibet region during the 2008 Beijing Olympic. It's a bit too long to explain so here's a wikipedia link for it instead.

[GuZidi]

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/...070201995.html

Chinese Oil Embargo Paralyzes N.Korean Army
The North Korean military is experiencing a dire fuel shortage due to a Chinese oil embargo that has lasted for five months.

"Military units are making do without vehicles during drills and even regimental commanders can't use cars," a source said. "Their oil stockpiles are almost running dry, and they’re desperate to secure supplies."

[LoveYouSaber]

Originally Posted by GuZidi

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/...070201995.html

Chinese Oil Embargo Paralyzes N.Korean Army
The North Korean military is experiencing a dire fuel shortage due to a Chinese oil embargo that has lasted for five months.

"Military units are making do without vehicles during drills and even regimental commanders can't use cars," a source said. "Their oil stockpiles are almost running dry, and they’re desperate to secure supplies."

Meanwhile, China and South Korea are improving relations, and on the other hand Japan is lifting some sanctions on North Korea. It would be interesting to see how America is going to deal with North Korea. No such thing as eternal friends or enemies.

If the US and North Korea can reach a settlement of a some sort, or in the most extreme and unlikely case, become allies, China would feel very, very uncomfortable considering the short distance between its capital Beijing and North Korea.

[kirikirito334]

Lol. North Korea is just the wildcard there. No one knows what they'll do. The real battle is between the giants. Especially now that China is getting more and more aggressive on their disputed seas.

[Jazzrat]

N. Korea is like the crazy neighbour that nobody wants to deal with until he start shitting on your porch. Well, it's about time something is done about it and hopefully something drastic will happen to bring N.Korea back to some semblance of sanity.

If China isn't even on their side, there's no one else that's going to side with them other than crazy nations like Iran.

[Roger Rambo]

North Korea, if anything, is a liability for China today. Having a buffer state between China and the western South Korea made sense in the cold war. But today it's a liability. South Korea is nominally not a hostile state to China anymore, due to their trade relations and not having nearly as much ideological conflict as they once did. The only reason that South Korea even really heavily maintains its heavy Cold war era militarization and US military bases is BECAUSE of the threat posed by the dysfunctional and erratic North.

North Korea is an inconvenience for China, one that's only not taken out back and strangled, because doing so would be messier than just trying to use measures like this to keep North Korea marginally behaving while the grownups conduct actual international politics and business. Making it clear that China isn't there to help North Korea if it proactively starts trouble is important*.



*If anything, China might opt to attack North Korea if it ever initiated conflict with the South in some incredibly egregious way, like shelling or bombing Seoul. China's current international standing is more important than their archaic relationship with the North, and more of the hardliners will likely consider keeping American forces off the Yalu river looking into Manchuria just as important today as it was 60 years ago. China will have its buffer zones, whether it has to fight Americans or North Koreans to get it.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

I agree that if I was China, I would consider the possibility of simply invading and installing a puppet government. The idea of a buffer state in itself isn't bad; the problem is that the NK regime is retarded and couldn't figure out how to modernise. The people in power in NK rightly fear that as soon as NK become a functioning nation, they would lose their grip on the population.

It may come a time when China realised it is more convenient to just remove and swap the NK leadership to someone who obeys the hand that feeds it.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

North Korea, if anything, is a liability for China today. Having a buffer state between China and the western South Korea made sense in the cold war. But today it's a liability. South Korea is nominally not a hostile state to China anymore, due to their trade relations and not having nearly as much ideological conflict as they once did. The only reason that South Korea even really heavily maintains its heavy Cold war era militarization and US military bases is BECAUSE of the threat posed by the dysfunctional and erratic North.

North Korea is an inconvenience for China, one that's only not taken out back and strangled, because doing so would be messier than just trying to use measures like this to keep North Korea marginally behaving while the grownups conduct actual international politics and business. Making it clear that China isn't there to help North Korea if it proactively starts trouble is important*.



*If anything, China might opt to attack North Korea if it ever initiated conflict with the South in some incredibly egregious way, like shelling or bombing Seoul. China's current international standing is more important than their archaic relationship with the North, and more of the hardliners will likely consider keeping American forces off the Yalu river looking into Manchuria just as important today as it was 60 years ago. China will have its buffer zones, whether it has to fight Americans or North Koreans to get it.

Problem is, invading North Korea will alienate the South - ROK citizenry does not trust the PRC much other than as a trading partner.

Now China is close to flipping South to their side, invading North will be a later issue. They are just bearing with it.

[Jazzrat]

It's easier to starve NK than to invade at this point. I don't think anyone have to worry about China or anyone launching an invasion on N. Korea.

Besides... there's nothing in that country other than starving citizen and possibly a nuclear missile.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Keep in mind China has no need to ANNEX NK. They would have no reason to. My point was that the issue is the NK leadership. China would be quite happy to keep NK where it is, but just replace the Kim Dynasty AND the military leaders with people much more cooperative.

[Jazzrat]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Keep in mind China has no need to ANNEX NK. They would have no reason to. My point was that the issue is the NK leadership. China would be quite happy to keep NK where it is, but just replace the Kim Dynasty AND the military leaders with people much more cooperative.

There's no need to spend money/manpower on a military strike just to remove the current madman from leadership when they can use embargo to destabilize the country enough to cause a regime change in form of coup de tat(with some foreign support).

No matter how much influence Kim have within the current regime, there's someone else who wants to take over his position.

Also, as crazy as NK is, I think it's going to be troublesome to get UN sanction to launch an attack on N.K eventhough it's probably best for everyone in the veto council that China do something about their rabid neighbor.

It's interesting to see Japan softening up against N.K though, not sure if it's just Abe being crazy or Japan and China playing the good cop bad cop role.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by Jazzrat

There's no need to spend money/manpower on a military strike just to remove the current madman from leadership when they can use embargo to destabilize the country enough to cause a regime change in form of coup de tat(with some foreign support).

No matter how much influence Kim have within the current regime, there's someone else who wants to take over his position.

Also, as crazy as NK is, I think it's going to be troublesome to get UN sanction to launch an attack on N.K eventhough it's probably best for everyone in the veto council that China do something about their rabid neighbor.

It's interesting to see Japan softening up against N.K though, not sure if it's just Abe being crazy or Japan and China playing the good cop bad cop role.

Japan's resident Koreans are split into the Seoul and Choseon camps; they still have Juche-style schools in Japan.

It would be good for Japan to have a controlling interest in there.

[LoveYouSaber]

As SaintessHeart said, I also seriously doubt whether South Korea would stand China annexing North Korea or turning it into a puppet state. They are able to have good relations now because South Korea doesn't directly feel threatened by China, which would change once they share land-borders. And despite the anti-Japanese stance, I think Koreans have a historic grudge towards China as well which could resurface easily if they feel threatened.

I think it's actually in China's interest to keep things as they are now, without tilting towards either North Korea or South Korea, and get them to compete for Chinese favour and not driving either to the opposite camp.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by LoveYouSaber

I think it's actually in China's interest to keep things as they are now, without tilting towards either North Korea or South Korea, and get them to compete for Chinese favour and not driving either to the opposite camp.

That's always China's position, the issue is that North Korea doesn't want to play along. China just wants NK to stabilise already and stop threatening everyone. If China is confident of everything staying the way they are, they wouldn't have any issue at all.