2011-05-27, 20:36 | Link #1683 | |
にこにこにー
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: 国立音ノ木坂学院
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Anyway, preview of next round since I'm bored... Spoiler:
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2011-05-27, 22:47 | Link #1685 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
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Azusa > Hina: I guess losing by less than 300 is considered a moral victory for Hinagiku which should keep her in the running for the postseason.
Mikoto > Yuki: Awesome win. And she won by more than what she got against Yuki last year. Other very good wins: Last Order, Ruri, Charlotte, Nadeko, Yui-nyan, Kyou, Nagi, Haruna Nice job by Eri in a losing effort. It shows that she isn't completely forgotten.
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2011-05-27, 23:06 | Link #1686 |
Yuri µ'serator
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: FL, USA
Age: 36
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Interesting shifts in top 16 overall after this round looks 16th[and possibly 15th] will be highly contested like last year. Though I am bit surprised to see Yuri ranked number 5 overall at all, but happy at the same time .
Though Mio did worse on Kanade than I hoped, but I am happy about plenty of other results [Azusa, Yuri, Misaka, Kagami, Kyou, Kuroneko, Yui, and Shana's wins for example ]. And Misuzu's win of course being a key series fan >.>.
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2011-05-27, 23:53 | Link #1689 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2008
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My stats did unusually well this time around. On average, they were only 0.82 percentage points off the correct result and they got every winner correct. The only match the significantly deviated from what my stats called for was Haruhi's performance on Kirino. Although not huge, Haruhi did do a fair bit better than expected. Hinagiku has really been improving as of late. In Aquamarine, I would have expected Azusa to get closer to 55% but now Hinagiku looks like she could even win if she had a bit more luck. Kuroneko looked a bit weak in her match with Hitagi. The last OreImo OVA episode might help Kuroneko out a bit. I hadn't really noticed until now, but with these latest underperformances by Mikoto, Azusa and Ruri, Shana has climbed her way into second place in my stats mostly through small gains or just staying the same between matches. I'm interested in seeing if she can hang on to second in my stats. Still no one is even close to touching Kanade.
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2011-05-28, 02:10 | Link #1692 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2008
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My current estimates have Kanade getting 57% of the votes against her nearest competition. She has lots and lots of room to work with before anti-votes start to hurt her ability to win. Also, if anti-votes cause Kanade to not dominate as much she'll start losing anti-votes or it'll at least slow down the flow of new anti-voters. It probably wouldn't hurt for Kanade to be a bit weaker so we can at least pretend someone has a chance to beat her.
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2011-05-28, 09:07 | Link #1693 | |||
にこにこにー
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: 国立音ノ木坂学院
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2011-05-28, 11:30 | Link #1694 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: UK
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Don't have much to say about the main results, pretty much expected stuff. Next round though I'm backing Haruhi. While I do like Goko Ruri, I think I expected more out of the OVAs.
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2011-05-28, 12:11 | Link #1695 | |
┌(^o^)┘モリ!┌(^o^)┘モリ!
Join Date: Sep 2010
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2011-05-28, 13:38 | Link #1697 |
You're Hot, Cupcake
Join Date: Aug 2008
Age: 42
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It is Haruhi's fate to verse Yuki in the elimination finals and lose, over and over. It's happened two years in a row. Regardless of Haruhi's overall performances in 2009 and 2010, Yuki always beats her. As for Yuri, from memory Haruhi beat her by about 200 votes in Prelim Phase 1. Whether that will change in the regular season with more voters on board or no 3rd option to divert votes is another issue. Both are top 16 material but will probably be out within 2 rounds max of SE. Necklace round showed Yuri isn't top tier material - she hardly scored votes in that 7 character poll.
Face the facts - this is almost replicating Mio's dominance in 2010. The brief campaign against her in Ruby and Diamond only served to galvanise her supporters, cause major backlash against Shana and for people to boost Mikoto to the runner-up position. In the end, if you really want someone other than Kanade to stand a chance, either nurture a fanbase enough via online mediums or beg China and Taiwan to help you. Realistically, those are the places with the voting power in this contest and will likely dictate the course of action this year because Kanade is prized by them. At this rate, Kanade is way ahead. Mikoto and Azusa are the only two likely characters those who don't want Kanade to win could rally behind. Mio's strength has fallen considerably, as is to be expected of a tiara winner. Shana will hang around but it's gotten to the point it's now a hallowed tradition for Shana to get close then get kicked aside. What would concern me more is whether Kanade could back up such form for 2012. When Mio was dominating, her margins against her main rivals were smallish. Kanade's are anything but. Anti-tiara winner sentiment might not be enough to counter a 2k+ votes head start.
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2011-05-28, 16:49 | Link #1698 | |
NOM
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Outside the Asylum
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Though, whether said pent-up rage alone can topple Kanade or not this year is a whole nother issue. I love how irrelevent statistics are in intra-series matches.
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2011-05-28, 21:46 | Link #1700 |
My wolfu is >> your waifu
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Charleston, West Virginia
Age: 42
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Oh crud, Holo has to face Shana... I wonder if I can brainwash the masses to...
There are a handful of difficult matches, but I will do my best to delineate who is truly deserving of my vote!
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contest, isml, saimoe, tournament |
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