[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[Marion]

Originally Posted by MagiToxin

Hey, I'm currently replaying episode one right now...

Spoiler for Natsuhi's headache:

Why didn't Natsuhi's headache resurface in Ep4? It made a big deal in 1,2 and only a slight cameo/mention in 3...but as i recall it, in Ep4, it is completely absent. I probably want to blame it on the over-fixation on Ange but are we to suppose it's still there?

Well...

Spoiler for EP 4 spoilers:

Considering the lack of Rokkenjima scenes before the 1st twilight, which she immediately dies in, I'm guessing we don't see her enough for her to moan about those headaches |D;

[Jan-Poo]

Then why don't we make a list of possible solution for the final riddle? There can't be too many of them. I think they can be divide in four main branches:

Natural disaster:
Volcano
Typhoon
Landslide

Posthumous human cause:
Trap
Venom

Metaphorical interpretation:
Lonelines
Madness
Belief

Non human living being cause:
Animal
Sickness

The fourth is null if Eva-Beato's red truth applies to all games. "No one is alive except you" clearly only refer to humans, since trees and insects certainly exist on Rokkenjima.
Can you think about anything else?

[Christen]

I'm beginning to suspect that the last mystery is just applicable to Episode 4. Maybe Battler got hit by a stray lightning bolt.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Christen

I'm beginning to suspect that the last mystery is just applicable to Episode 4. Maybe Battler got hit by a stray lightning bolt.

Spoiler for EP 4 ending (kinda):

Beatrice: Who am I?
Battler: I'll figure it out -- *ZAPPED*
Beatrice: I'm a stray lightning bolt! :awesome: You lose, time to start ALL OVER AGAIN
Battler: D:<!!!!

[Jan-Poo]

That would fall under natural disaster. However Beatrice said "I will kill you". So whatever killed Battler it must be something Beatrice identify with.

[lovelysan]

Maybe she's a large metal pole. *snicker*

Er, anyways, I just wanted to add that Maria's little crown is actually somewhat common in goth-loli fashion. Just so ya'll know....

EDIT- OH GOD XD

Spoiler for metal:

Episode 1- Battler's weapon is a metal candstick. He holds it aloft outside, cursing Beatice's name! ....and..... *BZAP*

Episode 4- ..... lets say that hat rack weapon he was carrying around was metal too >D . ......*BZAP*

Poor, poor Battler~

[rogerpepitone]

Spoiler for Wildspec on Beato's motives:

1) Beatrice is real, and cares about Maria.
2) The villain needs to convince Maria to do something.
3) The villain is performing the series of kills in accordance with the epitaph to convince Maria that s/he is Beatrice, and that they are in the Golden Land.
4) Beatrice believes the only way to save Maria is to destroy completely her faith in witches.
5) She can't kill herself.
6) Therefore, she's trying to create, in Battler (as the person who triggered events six years ago), somebody who perfectly understands her and Maria.

That's why she was worried about Battler at the beginning of Alliance, and why she kept trying to needle him by saying Ange's name at the end.

[lovelysan]

On that note, judging by the epi 4 tea party...

Spoiler for ???tea party:

I get the impression that the only witch who can "save" Beatrice is MARIA. The witch of origins. She's the only one who can give birth to 1 from 0.
Since Beatrice's situation even Bern (rather gleefully) says is impossible.

[crazysjd89]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

If you can't provide a definitive proof you can't debunk my theory. You can debunk it with facts not with other speculations. I for myself do not state my theory is a fact, but as long as it's not denied I will stick with it.

Both of us are fighting with circumstancal evidence, and neither one is giving out. Therefore, I'll instead point out contradictions in your arguements that you've made. I hadn't been doing it earlier, since I thought this little debate wouldn't go on for so long.

Feel free to respond or ignore as you wish.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Why she doesn't even want to go to the old mansion? That doesn't make sense.
Yes it is said that there's been a landslide, but how Ange was supposed to know? I can only conclude that the Mansion doesn't exist anymore, neither does the chapel the guesthouse and the harbor, and that is common knowledge. Ange knew that already, and probably Juuza knows that too. No one is surprised. It is a know fact.

However, if they knew this due to a volcano, then there would be no reason to even investigate the island. Why would Ange believe everyone was murdered, if she knew there was a volcano eruption that destroyed the mansion that the killed people were staying in?

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

My assumption is that not only the police knows an eruption occurred in Rokkenjima, but everyone knows, this would be the official version of what happened that day. An official explanation of the events must have been told, however we are not told in the game.
It is a fact that the players are kept on the dark about what the police has found, and what was the official reconstruction of the events.

You keep asking about why Ange didn't investigate the mansion, however, this can be turned around.

Why didn't Ange ever talk to someone who knows about volcanos, or someone who believed the volcano theory. If the volcano theory was such the widespread belief, then why did she fail to investigate from that side also, when she was trying to investigate from every angle?

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Ange doesn't trust the police. If she did she would stick with whatever conclusion they reached.

This certainly is a convenient contradiction for you. You're saying that Ange doesn't trust the police, however, at the same time, you're wondering why she didn't explore the mansion and saying it's because "it was already destroyed", however, since everyone who tried to get on the island wasn't very succesful, that would mean it was the police who stated the mansion and chapel were destroyed. Why would she trust them on that if she doesn't trust them at all?

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

And I turn to you even the pieces of jaw. Why would they found only the bones? How is that possible? I can answer with my theory, Maria's body was completely burned, only some pieces of her jaws survived the extreme heat.

With this, you're saying that the lava was there for long enough to mow down the mansion and the chapel, and yet it conveniently left a jaw and bones?

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Even those that believed in the authorities they still questioned Eva. Why she was the only one to survive? Why she didn't bring with her the other family members? So people speculated she took advantage of the situation to let everyone die

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

And that's precisely why she wasn't convicted. Is it even stated that Eva underwent a difficult process? She was simply questioned as it is normal. However if she was found as the sole survivor of 17 people who were clearly murdered and no other culprit could be found, she would be seriously questioned and she'd have a lot of trouble to clear her name. Let's say that only O.J. Simpson's attorney could save her

I already pointed this one out, but I'll say it again:

If the police knew it was a volcano, there would be no reason to question Eva, if "everyone", as you said, believed this explanation, then there would be no reason to doubt Eva. Escaping a natural disaster and living, even though other people didn't is not a crime.

Yes it's true, Eva was the only known survivor and recieved a lot from it, however, all that is only circumstancal. You can't convict someone just because of such evidence. They would have to find actual proof. This also means, they would have to proove that they were the only people on the island. This is easy for us to know, because we have the red. However, the police do not. They cannot say for a fact that someone didn't "sneak onto the island before the typhoon and killed everyone but Eva, who had solved the riddle and escaped." There are not even any witness to say "I saw Eva, such and such".

With such evidence as you're saying they should have arrested Eva for, I can suspect everyone:
Ange, who was apprantly sick, could easily sneak on the island and kill everyone. She too recieved a lot of money. (I know she was 6, but I'm just making a point.)

Okonogi, who, once Eva recieved all the money, became someone who she trusted, and he was also able to live comfortably. He was apprantly close friends to Eva and Hideyoshi also, so he probably knew they were going to the island.

Ootsuki, who became very famous due to his position as a witch hunter. He was into the occult before this, so he might have been friends with Kinzo and he could have heard of the family conference.

I could keep going, but I think that's enough to proove my point. Just because "it was possible and the suspect recieved something significant because of their deaths" does not proove that they murdered the people.

It's as you said, we have no idea how harsh the questioning on Eva was. It might have been as you said, only a series of questions, or it might have been a harsh questioning where they try to get something out of her and fail. However, I absolutly fail to see why they would question Eva at all. If the bodies were "burned to bones and a jaw", as you say, and especially if they were reduced to ashes, as should be with a volcano, there would be absolutely no proof that this was anything but a natural disaster, so there is no reason to question Eva in the first place.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by lovelysan

On that note, judging by the epi 4 tea party...

Spoiler for ???tea party:

I get the impression that the only witch who can "save" Beatrice is MARIA. The witch of origins. She's the only one who can give birth to 1 from 0.
Since Beatrice's situation even Bern (rather gleefully) says is impossible.

about that

Spoiler for Ep4 secret tea party:

I wonder if I'm the only one who think that a statement like "It's absolutely certain that Beatrice will not win, and a miracle will certainly not occur" is like a giant loser flag. Usually in a story the amount of confidence something is stated is directly proportional to the chance it will be proven wrong. Since in this case the confidence is 100% the chance it will happen the exact opposite should also be 100%. However if they said so about Battler I'd have no doubt about it, but Beatrice? If she's going to win it means that Battler will lose and anti-mystery will win. I can't accept it! °°;
What's the trick? Is it some kind of reverse psychology to make us doubt Battler's victory? :/

EDIT

However, if they knew this due to a volcano, then there would be no reason to even investigate the island. Why would Ange believe everyone was murdered, if she knew there was a volcano eruption that destroyed the mansion that the killed people were staying in?

Well... about the island it looks like in fact Ange didn't really investigated anything, and that's precisely my point...
About why she believes everyone was murdered I admit you have a point. I can only explain with her hatred towards Eva, but I admit is a weak argument.

Why didn't Ange ever talk to someone who knows about volcanos, or someone who believed the volcano theory. If the volcano theory was such the widespread belief, then why did she fail to investigate from that side also, when she was trying to investigate from every angle?

Good question but I turn it over again. If Ange was trying to investigate it from every angle why she doesn't ever talk about the official version of the story? Is it really possible there isn't any?
You see my assumption is that the narration is concealing anything about this. Yes you can say it's a trick but isn't it true that movie like "the sixth sense" and "the others" do play on showing the spectators partial informations so to prevent them to think about what it is actually happening?

You're saying that Ange doesn't trust the police, however, at the same time, you're wondering why she didn't explore the mansion and saying it's because "it was already destroyed", however, since everyone who tried to get on the island wasn't very succesful, that would mean it was the police who stated the mansion and chapel were destroyed. Why would she trust them on that if she doesn't trust them at all?

Because she trusts her eyes, the first thing the Captain does is to bring her to the side that was destroyed.

With this, you're saying that the lava was there for long enough to mow down the mansion and the chapel, and yet it conveniently left a jaw and bones?

Well then ok. Whatever is your explanation for the jaw I can use that too, it's not like the volcano eruption would prevent it. Volcano or not, someone must have taken Maria's body.

[momobunny]

Spoiler for EP4 secret tea party:

It is kinda odd that they both have ultimate faith in someone who's trying to disprove their existence... unless of course that's not what they mean by "winning the game".

[lovelysan]

You know, about Battler "winning"...

Spoiler:

Even if Battler DOES prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that witches do not exist and the culprit is human, and he "wins" the battle against Beatrice.
Um... that still ends up with Battler being dead ^^;.

The trick could be that the only way Battler can get out of this alive is with <i>at least a little</i> magical assistance.

But uh, who knows? I didn't really consider the flag thing, but that's a good point!

[lovelysan]

Originally Posted by Maho Momo

Spoiler for EP4 secret tea party:

It is kinda odd that they both have ultimate faith in someone who's trying to disprove their existence... unless of course that's not what they mean by "winning the game".

Bern and Lambda...

Spoiler:

Are actually a different type of witch than Beato. They don't really need anyone to "believe" to validate their existences. At least, that's the impression I got.

[crazysjd89]

As for my personal opinon, it has been so since Episode 1, I believe the person carrying out the murders is human, however, magic exists.

And possily, the Beatrice Battler is fighting is a real witch, trying to take claim for the crimes.

Spoiler for Episode 4 Hidden Tea Party:

Bern and Lambda wouldn't care if Battler denied them. As seen with Ange, to a "real" witch, even with the toxin, they can still use magic.

[Marion]

Spoiler for EP 4 ??? Tea Party:

Honestly, I hate how people think Bern is now evil because of that face :U

You have to understand the goals of the three witches:
Beatrice wants to win
Bern wants Battler to win
Lambda wants an eternal tie, similar to Higurashi

Basically Bern and Lambda teaming up means Beatrice has no hope in winning alone. This actually helps Bern a lot, because her Miracles can counter Lambda's Certainty with ease. I'm pretty sure that Beatrice is fully aware that Lambda is not helping her for her sake, so making an alliance and friend out of an Origin Witch, who is stronger than a Voyager witch according to TIPs, will help her a lot. Lambda and Bern are both Voyagers, but Maria is Origin.

Of course, I don't think Bern will just abandon Beatrice completely. Although her face doesn't show it she's probably a kind individual. She doesn't have to help Battler, she chooses to because she empathizes with his situation. I'm sure we'll see a happy ending for Beato too~

[momobunny]

Originally Posted by lovelysan

Bern and Lambda...

Spoiler:

Are actually a different type of witch that Beato. They don't really need anyone to "believe" to valide their existences. At least, that's the impression I got.

Spoiler:

I suppose that would explain it... but I thought that by disproving the existence of witches meant to disprove the existence of ALL kinds of witches. I'm probably mistaken...

I actually believe that Battler won't be able to prove that they don't exist at all. After all... the final episode might be a little boring if there are no magical elements and if they basically survive by using normal human abilities. I think that a final huge magical war would make it really epic. But I guess I'm getting ahead of myself...

Anyway, maybe by "winning" they ONLY mean that he can prove that a human did the crime. Perhaps they weren't even thinking about him disproving the existence of witches and demons or anything...

[Squirrellord]

Yeah, Lovelysan... that does seem to be the dark unspoken question, doesn't it?
Beatrice: Yes, Battler, if you prove I do not exist, you and your family will be released.
Battler: ...Alive?
Beatrice: Oh look, shiny penny!

My guess is that Battler will prove that there was no magic involved, and the game will end with only him surviving. However, he then starts to believe in Beatrice, who is then revived by belief, and will revive his family for him. That, or something similar will happen just before the end of the game, Battler conceding defeat to Beatrice, but every getting released alive regardless.
Sure, it's a happy happy ending... but I like happy endings :P

[momobunny]

Originally Posted by Marion

Spoiler for EP 4 ??? Tea Party:

Honestly, I hate how people think Bern is now evil because of that face :U

You have to understand the goals of the three witches:
Beatrice wants to win
Bern wants Battler to win
Lambda wants an eternal tie, similar to Higurashi

Basically Bern and Lambda teaming up means Beatrice has no hope in winning alone. This actually helps Bern a lot, because her Miracles can counter Lambda's Certainty with ease. I'm pretty sure that Beatrice is fully aware that Lambda is not helping her for her sake, so making an alliance and friend out of an Origin Witch, who is stronger than a Voyager witch according to TIPs, will help her a lot. Lambda and Bern are both Voyagers, but Maria is Origin.

Of course, I don't think Bern will just abandon Beatrice completely. Although her face doesn't show it she's probably a kind individual. She doesn't have to help Battler, she chooses to because she empathizes with his situation. I'm sure we'll see a happy ending for Beato too~

Spoiler:

I also don't think that Bern is evil. One laughing face shouldn't automatically make people think of her as a main villain of some sort, we still know too little to come to that conclusion. It's very possible that she could be tricking Lambda, tricking the reader, or even have some other reason.

Though... I was wondering, if Bern is siding with Battler, and Lambda is hoping for an eternal tie. Will another witch be included to side with Beato or are things really hopeless for her?
I've been hoping for a Hanyuu witch to come in, but I know that probably won't happen and at the moment it makes a lot more sense if Maria was the one to side with Beato and make it a more even game... if that's even a goal.

[lovelysan]

Originally Posted by Marion

Spoiler for EP 4 ??? Tea Party:

Honestly, I hate how people think Bern is now evil because of that face :U

Eeeeeh, to be fair, I've never really considered her to be "good." Helpful if you're careful about it, yes, but...

Spoiler:

Basically, I've always found her rather creepy simply because she likes to play with other people's lives "for fun" too much.
That, and one of the TIPS I read about her thoughts of such "play" in one of the Higurashi threads here. It was rather chilling.

EDIT- To Squirrel Lord and Maho Momo

Spoiler:

One would think, that the best thing for Battler to do is to say, "Witches exist but they did NOT commit the murders!" But noooooooo, Kid's just gotta be stubborn! Hmph ;p.

[k//eternal]

Originally Posted by Squirrellord

My guess is that Battler will prove that there was no magic involved, and the game will end with only him surviving. However, he then starts to believe in Beatrice, who is then revived by belief, and will revive his family for him. That, or something similar will happen just before the end of the game, Battler conceding defeat to Beatrice, but every getting released alive regardless.
Sure, it's a happy happy ending... but I like happy endings :P

Yeah, I figure it'll be something like that too, or that the solution will have unfortunate implications for his family's happiness that aren't necessarily "they all die" (such as Kyrie or Rudolf being a murderer, etc).

In a sense, the setup allows for him to choose a reality, and I think in the end he'll find one where everyone can get a happy ending.