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Old 2010-04-20, 09:23   Link #8501
LyricalAura
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I'd argue that because of the conversation in summer 1986 where Jessica talked about creating another self and Kanon rejected her confession, it is impossible for her to have known about Shkannon before that point.
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Old 2010-04-20, 10:14   Link #8502
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Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen View Post
"Furudo Erika increases it by one person" doesn't necessarily have to mean that she's there. Just that the maximum number of people has increased and that Furudo Erika's CORPSE has washed up on Rokken Island.
I don't understand.
"Furudo Erica increases it by one person" implies that Furudo Erica is the added value and that she is a person ( not a corpse).

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Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen View Post
The second two can be explained by positing Nanjo took Erika's corpse to the lounge to examine it!
The third one can be explained in this way but the second one can’t. Corpses don’t posses any knowledge.
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Old 2010-04-20, 10:27   Link #8503
LyricalAura
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The third one can be explained in this way but the second one can’t. Corpses don’t posses any knowledge.
"Erika" refers to "the piece controlled by Meta Erika," which is not necessarily a human named Erika. There were a number of people who were indirectly placed in the dining room using a statement like "all other people were in the dining room." If one of these people was in fact Erika's piece, such as Shannon, they could be removed from the dining room and placed in the guesthouse.
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Old 2010-04-20, 10:37   Link #8504
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Regardless of how Sayo could trick Jessica into believing her to be a boy. I have to ask for the reason for the creation of Kanon.

If Sayo created Kanon to fulfill Jessica's desire to find a boyfriend, it was puzzling to me why Kanon rejected her downright. It defeated the purpose of creating Kanon.

Kinzo called Sayo to impose as a boy? Why? He could not find a male orphan?

And then I would ask what was Shannon lying in the garden shed in EP1.

------------------

For EP5, I wonder if there is any scene where it is narrated from Erika's point of view. If NONE, then could I just say the scenes were fake even Erika was present at the scene?
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Old 2010-04-20, 10:39   Link #8505
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
I'd argue that reading over the second to last chapter makes it clear that they are both trying to "destroy Beatrice's illusion" and "kill her heart", despite being very reluctant to do so, but even besides that.

Ange understanding magic takes place at a key point in EP4, just before the final chapter. It is the culmination of the final Ange scenes and the story thread that took up a third of the entire game. There has to be some purpose for it, don't you think?



If you don't see the irony in this statement, I'm not going to comment on it
Ange arrived on 'Ushiromiya Island' to find another family dead.

There was an earthquake.

There are several islands all in 2009

Battler is scared of planes so he decides not take one, instead going for a boat.

It is 2009 let's all believe this and not act like a pack of wolves
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Old 2010-04-20, 11:05   Link #8506
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
I'm 95% certain.

There are just two scenes that are problematic. The scene where Kanon leaves the chapel and dies in Jessica's room. And the scene where Kanon is introduced in episode 1. Other than that...

EDIT: I can get around episode 2 though.

Since George = Kanon obviously Kanon never left the chapel.

Nanjo pretended to find a master key in Jessica's pocket.

George simply had a stomach wound in Natsuhi's room. After Rosa and Battler left, George, having Ordered Shannon to kill Jessica, mourned over Jessica's body at the end of the game and died in Jessica's room.
One problem with this. Kanon's death was proclaimed with the red while we could confirm that George was alive. So the death occurred before the stomach wound. Thus, I don't think it works.
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Old 2010-04-20, 11:14   Link #8507
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@Oliver:

It sounds as though you've just sidestepped my argument instead of responding to it. Let's put it this way... What if Shannon and Kanon were never on duty on the same day? What if all or at least most of the servants on duty know about the secret, meaning that only Natsuhi, Krauss, and Jessica need to be fooled for more than a few weeks?

I think it's important to look at this from an in-universe perspective, not a reader's perspective. Think about what it would take for someone to actually confront Shannon about that. First off, have you ever asked a friend you've known for a long time "hey, you look a lot like someone else I know who is a girl. You're both the same person in disguise, aren't you?" If we're reading a book, this would be a perfectly natural thing to suspect, but in real life, no one would ever say this except as a joke that could be brushed aside. And if Jessica thinks they're siblings, the confrontation becomes: "You look a lot like your sister. Could it be that you and your sister are the same person and you've been cross-dressing for some inexplicable reason ever since the day I met you?" Call me stupid, but I would never come to this conclusion myself. And unless I am subhumanly dense, there's a counterexample to show that such a disguise could work on someone.

The easiest way to create a mystery is if no one knows that there's a mystery being created. Real people aren't "genre-savvy".
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Old 2010-04-20, 13:10   Link #8508
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Originally Posted by goldenlove27 View Post
To be honest I mean something more deeper than that. Like her overall existence On the game board. She is indeed a trap, (I bet she is rolling around laughing in her grave knowing how she raped everyone's minds ), but regarding how she was able to transcend the laws of the game, you can't help but think there is something special about her character.

Sorry for going off topic.
Actually if I remember right the reason people started denying Erika wasn't because she killed people in episode 6 it had more meaning than that. The reason it started was because Erika acted like a witch everywhere she was. She did impossible things like making references to the meta world (which Beatrice does in episode 4) and sealing windows in a typhoon. So after that people in Japan started claiming that she was a witch and that it was possible to deny her. The only difference is instead of a fantasy element in the core arcs Erika carries a mystery element. The reds about her in episode 5 are especially vague too. Until episode 6 they didn't specifically call her "a person".

Episode 6 further supports her being a witch because she uses basically the same kind of red Beatrice does when She says "I killed those people".
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Old 2010-04-20, 13:26   Link #8509
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
It sounds as though you've just sidestepped my argument instead of responding to it. Let's put it this way... What if Shannon and Kanon were never on duty on the same day? What if all or at least most of the servants on duty know about the secret, meaning that only Natsuhi, Krauss, and Jessica need to be fooled for more than a few weeks?
Let's put it this way...

Let us assume that Kanon and Shannon's schedule never coincides so that in all situations except possibly family conferences only one is supposed to be present in the first place. That's the first assumption you're proposing to displace the much more unpleasant assumption that Sayo is capable of being in two places at once. But schedules are maintained by Genji.

So at least Genji has to know and knowingly approve, you just added one more assumption, that he does. Naturally, with Genji being such an enigma, it's easy to assume he's a pirate ninja if you want to, but that assumption by itself is not well founded. It's still another assumption.

Genji however is just the most obvious start to the snowball. Schedules are sometimes jossed by both Natsuhi's orders, Krauss' orders, random illnesses of other personell, random illnesses of Sayo herself, unstable weather conditions that prevent navigation for certain periods of time, (notice how Jessica refers to the issues of living on an island and going to school on another one at length) and numerous other force majeure factors. Unstable weather is the most common and the most unavoidable factor here. You now have to add another assumption, that this never happened, or that if it did, they could somehow cover for it.

But it still doesn't end. While Krauss may not care who pours him tea, he can do this only because Natsuhi cares for him, that is her role in the household. Natsuhi would not come off as terribly paranoid or observant... if it weren't for that numerously referenced order of hers to keep windows and doors shut and locked for the night, and references to her personally issuing punishment to the servants. She clearly does seem to care who pours her tea, if not to ask about their personal life, which is beneath her interest, but to ensure they perform adequately to her standards. So she'd have to notice, and then she'd have to ask Genji if she thought not to ask directly. And she wouldn't take a vague answer for an answer. So you have to assume that she did, in fact, take a very vague answer. And there's the whole issue of paying Sayo double salary.

But it doesn't end there either. Gohda is referenced to have interacted with both Kanon and Shannon -- in particular, his letter contains a clear reference to Kanon and it's clear the 1986 conference is not the first time he sees Shannon -- and paid special attention to both, if only for workplace politics. So if he has any suspicion they are one and the same person, it's very weird for him not to have voiced it when the going gets tough, even if he did glaze over it otherwise -- in particular in Ep2, where Gohda is alive, and Sayo is alive, and someone's killing everyone. So you have to assume he's covering for them.

Everything gets much worse when Shannon and Kanon do have to show up for the same shift in different locations, however rarely that happens. We know this has to have happened at least once previously, in 1985, because only one-winged servants were in on the Kinzo Phantom Conspiracy. For this not to have happened, you have to assume there are more one-winged servants, i.e. that all the 'on' get one-winged status. Poor Gohda, he must be so furious.

Then there's Jessica. Who simply cannot possibly be unaware, as Kanon and Shannon are basically the only people commonly present on the island that seriously interest her, and she knows they are not siblings, so any possible resemblance which we don't see because Ryukishi07 can't draw would not escape her. So she has to know too, and then go and fall in love with a character created by her friend. Or, she has to be incredibly unobservant. You have to assume either, though you don't have to assume both. But if you assume she is unobservant, you also have to explain why Shannon initially offers a closer contact, but then Kanon rejects Jessica outright, for which more assumptions would be necessary.

Then there's Rosa. Who is suspiciously friendly with the servants -- in Ep1 she brings Kumasawa a mysterious package she says is tea, in Ep3 she narrates that she trusts Genji and Kumasawa more than her siblings for help, and in Ep2 she offers to relax with Shannon drinking coffee. But she very seriously investigates Kanon's disappearance and clearly wants to pin the murder of Jessica on him. She saw him long enough, so she has to know.

I'm sure the entire list of required assumptions has been given previously several times by Renall, and was probably more extensive than the one I give here. Extra assumptions get less and less drastic as they pile up, naturally, and eventually the pile would be complete and fend off everything... just very big.

By the time it is completely complete and is capable of fending off all the possibilities I have not thought of but which have been numerously raised previously, it can expand the difference-from-the-world-available-as-experience that we ascribe to Umineko already into a world that is outside the genre of mystery and the genre of fantasy and even the genre of romance. It becomes vaudeville instead, where such things are normal.

So tell me, are we meant to be reading a vaudeville? I want a musical number with Jessica on guitar and Rosa on drums then.

There is only one thing that can make all these assumptions founded in one go, because then the assumption that a few conspirators are engaging in a charade to fool the other concerned parties readily becomes founded and everything clicks into place.

That thing is a clear motivation for keeping the illusion up by at least some of those concerned parties, that is based on a quote from the text that is given to us.

I'm looking for one, I don't see one. Instead of going point by point against my criticism of Shkanon based on the fact that I don't like the outgrowth of assumptions, why not look for this motivation and the quotes supporting it instead? I see numerous hints stating it might be so, you're not alone in seeing them, and I fully acknowledge they exist. Those are just not sufficient for me because of the numerous assumption they require --- I see a total lack of evidence as to why it is other than the mysterious workings of Genji's mind... which suspiciously resembles the whims of the fickle witch.

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I think it's important to look at this from an in-universe perspective, not a reader's perspective. Think about what it would take for someone to actually confront Shannon about that.
A murder happening and people being worried for their dear lives certainly could do it, or at the very least, make people legitimately suspect the person in question and want to distance themselves from them silently.

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First off, have you ever asked a friend you've known for a long time "hey, you look a lot like someone else I know who is a girl. You're both the same person in disguise, aren't you?"
No, I did not ask that in particular. But I did happen to unravel a complex scheme intended to deceive me and a few other parties once, by randomly finding a drugstore receipt timestamped with a moment when the person replied by phone they were in a very different location. That was a lovely scandal.

So yes, I can imagine myself collecting evidence to find out discreetly at the very least. Like maybe taking pictures for more detailed comparison under false pretences. I'm very obviously not normal though, so that's not a very good counterargument, but -- Things I can imagine myself doing other people can do.

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The easiest way to create a mystery is if no one knows that there's a mystery being created. Real people aren't "genre-savvy".
I have to comment on that in particular. Real people are genre savvy. The genre is just radically different from most genres seen in literature, but it still remains a genre, in the sense that it is born from collective speech in all it's multitude of forms which embodies culture as a narrative. "Culture is positively selected social experience transmitted through a semiotic system." is the definition of culture used in my school of social anthropology.

That doesn't mean they're genre-savvy in mysteries, obviously, but this genre does include the concept of people wishing ill on you, especially in the competitive workplace situation which we know exists on Rokkenjima.
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Last edited by Oliver; 2010-04-20 at 13:52. Reason: typo. :)
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Old 2010-04-20, 13:46   Link #8510
Judoh
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One problem with this. Kanon's death was proclaimed with the red while we could confirm that George was alive. So the death occurred before the stomach wound. Thus, I don't think it works.
It's a fringe theory so I'm ignoring the past tense of that red. The point I'm making is that in episode 6, if you assume the blue truth seal on the neighboring room was removed later, then since Shannon and George are both in that neighboring room they are both candidates to be Kanon. Since Erika suggested George there must be hints in 1-4 for this to be possible.

But there are far less reds against George being Kanon than there are for Shannon.

Also if you want a more logical reason: George has a strange urge to sneak out of windows.

So if he does it in episode 6 it is most definitely supported by the event in episode 3, and it's posssible he sneaks out of windows in other episodes too.

Edit: I'm thinking of changing the theory name to "Kanji" theory instead of "Kouji". Makes more sense. What do you think?
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Old 2010-04-20, 14:00   Link #8511
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Sorry Evatrice

Insulting the Author is forbidden, his job is not to make something completely contrived, a genetic abnormality as a motive removes the whydunnit from the game. That's no fun to solve
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Old 2010-04-20, 14:11   Link #8512
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Let's put it this way...

Let us assume that Kanon and Shannon's schedule never coincides so that in all situations except possibly family conferences only one is supposed to be present in the first place. That's the first assumption you're proposing to displace the much more unpleasant assumption that Sayo is capable of being in two places at once. But schedules are maintained by Genji.

So at least Genji has to know and knowingly approve, you just added one more assumption, that he does. Naturally, with Genji being such an enigma, it's easy to assume he's a pirate ninja if you want to, but that assumption by itself is not well founded. It's still another assumption.
Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo know about Kuwadorian and Beatrice 2. Unless you have a better explanation for Beatrice 2 than my theory gives, it seems very likely that those three would know about Kinzo's plans to revive Beatrice through another person. So, this is an assumption made with a reasonable basis and not an easy one to shrug off. Let me pose a counter-question: how do you explain Beatrice 2 (the Beatrice that Rosa saw)? I claim that the easiest solution for that strongly hints that those three know some of what Kinzo and the -on servants are doing, and furthermore, would have a reason to lie about it.

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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Genji however is just the most obvious start to the snowball. Schedules are sometimes jossed by both Natsuhi's orders, Krauss' orders, random illnesses of other personell, random illnesses of Sayo herself, unstable weather conditions that prevent navigation for certain periods of time, (notice how Jessica refers to the issues of living on an island and going to school on another one at length) and numerous other force majeure factors. Unstable weather is the most common and the most unavoidable factor here. You now have to add another assumption, that this never happened, or that if it did, they could somehow cover for it.
We know that there are about a dozen servants who work on the island at the very least, but Natsuhi says that there are usually only 2 or 3 servants on the island at any time. The odds that Kanon and Shannon would be chosen for the same shift by chance are very low, especially if Genji is on the island all of the time (since he's both the head servant and the only one Kinzo trusts, this is very probable). Add in the fact that Kinzo personally controlled all of the -on servants when he was alive, and that Genji presumably had some say in scheduling the servants or else his position as head servant would be pretty pointless.

So, add that all together, and the chances that both would be assigned at the same time during the ~1 year Kinzo was dead when Genji still had a say in setting the shifts and Natsuhi had no particular reason for having them both on at the same time are very low, and all of the factors point towards this being possible and not improbable at all.

Also, I don't see how weather changes could result in both of them being scheduled at the same time. If one was unable to leave the island, presumably the other would be unable to enter the island.

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But it still doesn't end. While Krauss may not care who pours him tea, he can do this only because Natsuhi cares for him, that is her role in the household. Natsuhi would not come off as terribly paranoid or observant... if it weren't for that numerously referenced order of hers to keep windows and doors shut and locked for the night, and references to her personally issuing punishment to the servants. She clearly does seem to care who pours her tea, if not to ask about their personal life, which is beneath her interest, but to ensure they perform adequately to her standards. So she'd have to notice, and then she'd have to ask Genji if she thought not to ask directly. And she wouldn't take a vague answer for an answer. So you have to assume that she did, in fact, take a very vague answer. And there's the whole issue of paying Sayo double salary.
Not seeing your point here. Natsuhi thinks very little of all the servants, and only cares about how well they perform. If she thinks the two are siblings, would she really pay attention to the fact that they look similar when their personalities and outfits are so radically different?

And again, for the double salary, that only comes into affect after Kinzo dies since he was employing those servants personally. If he had set up some kind of fund or account for these servants before his death, then Genji would know about it, and could probably convince Natsuhi to continue using that method to pay them.

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But it doesn't end there either. Gohda is referenced to have interacted with both Kanon and Shannon -- in particular, his letter contains a clear reference to Kanon and it's clear the 1986 conference is not the first time he sees Shannon -- and paid special attention to both, if only for workplace politics. So if he has any suspicion they are one and the same person, it's very weird for him not to have voiced it when the going gets tough, even if he did glaze over it otherwise -- in particular in Ep3, where Gohda is alive, and Sayo is alive, and someone's killing everyone. So you have to assume he's covering for them.
Think about what you're saying. "If Gohda sees a boy at one point in time and a girl at another point in time and their faces look similar even though their personalities and outfits are completely different, then there is a nearly 100% chance that he would guess that they are the same person and not feel like a complete idiot to say it out loud." And the EP3 part doesn't make sense. Shannon looks like Kanon does not equal someone must be alive after they both die. In other words, Shkanon doesn't imply Shkanontrice=culprit. Even if he did have suspicions, he would have assumed that their deaths proved that they were separate people.


I have said all of this before, but you have either missed it or ignored it. It is really only based on two assumptions that aren't practically given to us by the text: one of which is backed up by what we know of Beatrice 2, and the simple fact of human nature that we don't immediately jump to the conclusion that two people are the same person just because they look alike. If you are unable to accept this, then there is no point arguing.
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Old 2010-04-20, 14:18   Link #8513
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo know about Kuwadorian and Beatrice 2. Unless you have a better explanation for Beatrice 2 than my theory gives, it seems very likely that those three would know about Kinzo's plans to revive Beatrice through another person. So, this is an assumption made with a reasonable basis and not an easy one to shrug off. Let me pose a counter-question: how do you explain Beatrice 2 (the Beatrice that Rosa saw)? I claim that the easiest solution for that strongly hints that those three know some of what Kinzo and the -on servants are doing, and furthermore, would have a reason to lie about it.
There are more theories than just that. Remember Beatrice said that she was a soul inside another body. She basically said she was a homunculus to Battler and she believed that.

So Cloning or amnesia should be fine as explanations for Beatrice there and they're more probable.
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Old 2010-04-20, 14:19   Link #8514
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It's a fringe theory so I'm ignoring the past tense of that red. The point I'm making is that in episode 6, if you assume the blue truth seal on the neighboring room was removed later, then since Shannon and George are both in that neighboring room they are both candidates to be Kanon. Since Erika suggested George there must be hints in 1-4 for this to be possible.

But there are far less reds against George being Kanon than there are for Shannon.

Also if you want a more logical reason: George has a strange urge to sneak out of windows.

So if he does it in episode 6 it is most definitely supported by the event in episode 3, and it's posssible he sneaks out of windows in other episodes too.

Edit: I'm thinking of changing the theory name to "Kanji" theory instead of "Kouji". Makes more sense. What do you think?
Personally, I think the tense and the time of the red's statement are important, but since I have no objective way to prove it, I'll keep my mind open to the possibilities. Regardless, I think I see what you're getting at.

Here's a scary thought: Shanninzo.
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Old 2010-04-20, 14:20   Link #8515
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
There are more theories than just that. Remember Beatrice said that she was a soul inside another body. She basically said she was a homunculus to Battler.

So Cloning or amnesia should be fine as explanations for Beatrice there and they're more probable.
...No, please don't say that. Cloning is flat out impossible, and amnesia doesn't match up with the age of Beatrice.
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Old 2010-04-20, 14:23   Link #8516
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Chronotrig, I don't quite get what you mean about amnesia not matching up. Could you please elaborate?
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Old 2010-04-20, 14:27   Link #8517
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...No, please don't say that. Cloning is flat out impossible, and amnesia doesn't match up with the age of Beatrice.
Well cloning humans has been possible for years even decades actually it's just illegal, but that's not something Kinzo has to worry about. Beatrice did say she was born in a test tube though.

As for the age I was assuming the Beatrice there was in her late-early 20's. The age doesn't really matter for amnesia though, especially if the Beatrice before her didn't really die.
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Old 2010-04-20, 14:31   Link #8518
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Well cloning humans has been possible for years actually it's just illegal, but that's not something Kinzo has to worry about. Beatrice did say she was born in a test tube though.

As for the age I was assuming the Beatrice there was in her late-early 20's. The age doesn't really matter for amnesia though, especially if the Beatrice before her didn't really die.
Exactly. I seriously doubt the Beatrice that Rosa saw could have been the original one at that age. So, who is she exactly? Beatrice's daughter, maybe? She has amnesia, so Kinzo locks her up in a hidden mansion and tells her that she's the witch, Beatrice? And refuses to tell her anything about her past?

It may be possible to make a theory like this, but I don't see why amnesia would be a factor if she isn't the original Beatrice.

Oh, and don't forget that Genji said that Beatrice died before the mansion was completed. If he was lying (I don't think he was just mistaken), there should be some explanation for why he said this. Not a vital weakness, but something to be considered.
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Old 2010-04-20, 14:36   Link #8519
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Genji was referring to Beatrice1 when he said that.

I admit I'm lost, when you say "amnesia", Judoh, who are you supposing is having amnesia of the three Beatrice and what problem does that solve?
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Old 2010-04-20, 14:38   Link #8520
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Oh, and don't forget that Genji said that Beatrice died before the mansion was completed. If he was lying, there should be some explanation for why he said this. Not a vital weakness, but something to be considered.
Yeah I remember that. I have that in my notes. That might be evidence that he considered the original and the second Beatrice to be different people though since Rosa was living in the mansion by the time the second Beatrice died. He may not even consider her to be Beatrice. Maybe Genji knew Beatrice 2 on a more personal level than even Kinzo did.
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