2010-04-20, 09:23 | Link #8501 |
Dea ex Kakera
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
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I'd argue that because of the conversation in summer 1986 where Jessica talked about creating another self and Kanon rejected her confession, it is impossible for her to have known about Shkannon before that point.
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2010-04-20, 10:14 | Link #8502 | |
Junior Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: The Golden Land
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Quote:
"Furudo Erica increases it by one person" implies that Furudo Erica is the added value and that she is a person ( not a corpse). The third one can be explained in this way but the second one can’t. Corpses don’t posses any knowledge. |
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2010-04-20, 10:27 | Link #8503 |
Dea ex Kakera
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
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"Erika" refers to "the piece controlled by Meta Erika," which is not necessarily a human named Erika. There were a number of people who were indirectly placed in the dining room using a statement like "all other people were in the dining room." If one of these people was in fact Erika's piece, such as Shannon, they could be removed from the dining room and placed in the guesthouse.
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2010-04-20, 10:37 | Link #8504 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: HK, China
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Regardless of how Sayo could trick Jessica into believing her to be a boy. I have to ask for the reason for the creation of Kanon.
If Sayo created Kanon to fulfill Jessica's desire to find a boyfriend, it was puzzling to me why Kanon rejected her downright. It defeated the purpose of creating Kanon. Kinzo called Sayo to impose as a boy? Why? He could not find a male orphan? And then I would ask what was Shannon lying in the garden shed in EP1. ------------------ For EP5, I wonder if there is any scene where it is narrated from Erika's point of view. If NONE, then could I just say the scenes were fake even Erika was present at the scene?
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2010-04-20, 10:39 | Link #8505 | |
Member
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: United Kingdom.
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Quote:
There was an earthquake. There are several islands all in 2009 Battler is scared of planes so he decides not take one, instead going for a boat. It is 2009 let's all believe this and not act like a pack of wolves |
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2010-04-20, 11:05 | Link #8506 | |
Member
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Classified
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Quote:
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2010-04-20, 11:14 | Link #8507 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Buffer overflow
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@Oliver:
It sounds as though you've just sidestepped my argument instead of responding to it. Let's put it this way... What if Shannon and Kanon were never on duty on the same day? What if all or at least most of the servants on duty know about the secret, meaning that only Natsuhi, Krauss, and Jessica need to be fooled for more than a few weeks? I think it's important to look at this from an in-universe perspective, not a reader's perspective. Think about what it would take for someone to actually confront Shannon about that. First off, have you ever asked a friend you've known for a long time "hey, you look a lot like someone else I know who is a girl. You're both the same person in disguise, aren't you?" If we're reading a book, this would be a perfectly natural thing to suspect, but in real life, no one would ever say this except as a joke that could be brushed aside. And if Jessica thinks they're siblings, the confrontation becomes: "You look a lot like your sister. Could it be that you and your sister are the same person and you've been cross-dressing for some inexplicable reason ever since the day I met you?" Call me stupid, but I would never come to this conclusion myself. And unless I am subhumanly dense, there's a counterexample to show that such a disguise could work on someone. The easiest way to create a mystery is if no one knows that there's a mystery being created. Real people aren't "genre-savvy".
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2010-04-20, 13:10 | Link #8508 | |
Mystery buff
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
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Quote:
Episode 6 further supports her being a witch because she uses basically the same kind of red Beatrice does when She says "I killed those people".
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2010-04-20, 13:26 | Link #8509 | ||||
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
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Quote:
Let us assume that Kanon and Shannon's schedule never coincides so that in all situations except possibly family conferences only one is supposed to be present in the first place. That's the first assumption you're proposing to displace the much more unpleasant assumption that Sayo is capable of being in two places at once. But schedules are maintained by Genji. So at least Genji has to know and knowingly approve, you just added one more assumption, that he does. Naturally, with Genji being such an enigma, it's easy to assume he's a pirate ninja if you want to, but that assumption by itself is not well founded. It's still another assumption. Genji however is just the most obvious start to the snowball. Schedules are sometimes jossed by both Natsuhi's orders, Krauss' orders, random illnesses of other personell, random illnesses of Sayo herself, unstable weather conditions that prevent navigation for certain periods of time, (notice how Jessica refers to the issues of living on an island and going to school on another one at length) and numerous other force majeure factors. Unstable weather is the most common and the most unavoidable factor here. You now have to add another assumption, that this never happened, or that if it did, they could somehow cover for it. But it still doesn't end. While Krauss may not care who pours him tea, he can do this only because Natsuhi cares for him, that is her role in the household. Natsuhi would not come off as terribly paranoid or observant... if it weren't for that numerously referenced order of hers to keep windows and doors shut and locked for the night, and references to her personally issuing punishment to the servants. She clearly does seem to care who pours her tea, if not to ask about their personal life, which is beneath her interest, but to ensure they perform adequately to her standards. So she'd have to notice, and then she'd have to ask Genji if she thought not to ask directly. And she wouldn't take a vague answer for an answer. So you have to assume that she did, in fact, take a very vague answer. And there's the whole issue of paying Sayo double salary. But it doesn't end there either. Gohda is referenced to have interacted with both Kanon and Shannon -- in particular, his letter contains a clear reference to Kanon and it's clear the 1986 conference is not the first time he sees Shannon -- and paid special attention to both, if only for workplace politics. So if he has any suspicion they are one and the same person, it's very weird for him not to have voiced it when the going gets tough, even if he did glaze over it otherwise -- in particular in Ep2, where Gohda is alive, and Sayo is alive, and someone's killing everyone. So you have to assume he's covering for them. Everything gets much worse when Shannon and Kanon do have to show up for the same shift in different locations, however rarely that happens. We know this has to have happened at least once previously, in 1985, because only one-winged servants were in on the Kinzo Phantom Conspiracy. For this not to have happened, you have to assume there are more one-winged servants, i.e. that all the 'on' get one-winged status. Poor Gohda, he must be so furious. Then there's Jessica. Who simply cannot possibly be unaware, as Kanon and Shannon are basically the only people commonly present on the island that seriously interest her, and she knows they are not siblings, so any possible resemblance which we don't see because Ryukishi07 can't draw would not escape her. So she has to know too, and then go and fall in love with a character created by her friend. Or, she has to be incredibly unobservant. You have to assume either, though you don't have to assume both. But if you assume she is unobservant, you also have to explain why Shannon initially offers a closer contact, but then Kanon rejects Jessica outright, for which more assumptions would be necessary. Then there's Rosa. Who is suspiciously friendly with the servants -- in Ep1 she brings Kumasawa a mysterious package she says is tea, in Ep3 she narrates that she trusts Genji and Kumasawa more than her siblings for help, and in Ep2 she offers to relax with Shannon drinking coffee. But she very seriously investigates Kanon's disappearance and clearly wants to pin the murder of Jessica on him. She saw him long enough, so she has to know. I'm sure the entire list of required assumptions has been given previously several times by Renall, and was probably more extensive than the one I give here. Extra assumptions get less and less drastic as they pile up, naturally, and eventually the pile would be complete and fend off everything... just very big. By the time it is completely complete and is capable of fending off all the possibilities I have not thought of but which have been numerously raised previously, it can expand the difference-from-the-world-available-as-experience that we ascribe to Umineko already into a world that is outside the genre of mystery and the genre of fantasy and even the genre of romance. It becomes vaudeville instead, where such things are normal. So tell me, are we meant to be reading a vaudeville? I want a musical number with Jessica on guitar and Rosa on drums then. There is only one thing that can make all these assumptions founded in one go, because then the assumption that a few conspirators are engaging in a charade to fool the other concerned parties readily becomes founded and everything clicks into place. That thing is a clear motivation for keeping the illusion up by at least some of those concerned parties, that is based on a quote from the text that is given to us. I'm looking for one, I don't see one. Instead of going point by point against my criticism of Shkanon based on the fact that I don't like the outgrowth of assumptions, why not look for this motivation and the quotes supporting it instead? I see numerous hints stating it might be so, you're not alone in seeing them, and I fully acknowledge they exist. Those are just not sufficient for me because of the numerous assumption they require --- I see a total lack of evidence as to why it is other than the mysterious workings of Genji's mind... which suspiciously resembles the whims of the fickle witch. Quote:
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So yes, I can imagine myself collecting evidence to find out discreetly at the very least. Like maybe taking pictures for more detailed comparison under false pretences. I'm very obviously not normal though, so that's not a very good counterargument, but -- Things I can imagine myself doing other people can do. Quote:
That doesn't mean they're genre-savvy in mysteries, obviously, but this genre does include the concept of people wishing ill on you, especially in the competitive workplace situation which we know exists on Rokkenjima.
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Last edited by Oliver; 2010-04-20 at 13:52. Reason: typo. :) |
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2010-04-20, 13:46 | Link #8510 | |
Mystery buff
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
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Quote:
But there are far less reds against George being Kanon than there are for Shannon. Also if you want a more logical reason: George has a strange urge to sneak out of windows. So if he does it in episode 6 it is most definitely supported by the event in episode 3, and it's posssible he sneaks out of windows in other episodes too. Edit: I'm thinking of changing the theory name to "Kanji" theory instead of "Kouji". Makes more sense. What do you think?
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2010-04-20, 14:11 | Link #8512 | ||||
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Buffer overflow
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Quote:
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So, add that all together, and the chances that both would be assigned at the same time during the ~1 year Kinzo was dead when Genji still had a say in setting the shifts and Natsuhi had no particular reason for having them both on at the same time are very low, and all of the factors point towards this being possible and not improbable at all. Also, I don't see how weather changes could result in both of them being scheduled at the same time. If one was unable to leave the island, presumably the other would be unable to enter the island. Quote:
And again, for the double salary, that only comes into affect after Kinzo dies since he was employing those servants personally. If he had set up some kind of fund or account for these servants before his death, then Genji would know about it, and could probably convince Natsuhi to continue using that method to pay them. Quote:
I have said all of this before, but you have either missed it or ignored it. It is really only based on two assumptions that aren't practically given to us by the text: one of which is backed up by what we know of Beatrice 2, and the simple fact of human nature that we don't immediately jump to the conclusion that two people are the same person just because they look alike. If you are unable to accept this, then there is no point arguing.
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2010-04-20, 14:18 | Link #8513 | |
Mystery buff
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
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Quote:
So Cloning or amnesia should be fine as explanations for Beatrice there and they're more probable.
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2010-04-20, 14:19 | Link #8514 | |
Member
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Classified
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Quote:
Here's a scary thought: Shanninzo. |
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2010-04-20, 14:27 | Link #8517 | |
Mystery buff
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
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Quote:
As for the age I was assuming the Beatrice there was in her late-early 20's. The age doesn't really matter for amnesia though, especially if the Beatrice before her didn't really die.
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2010-04-20, 14:31 | Link #8518 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Buffer overflow
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Quote:
It may be possible to make a theory like this, but I don't see why amnesia would be a factor if she isn't the original Beatrice. Oh, and don't forget that Genji said that Beatrice died before the mansion was completed. If he was lying (I don't think he was just mistaken), there should be some explanation for why he said this. Not a vital weakness, but something to be considered.
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2010-04-20, 14:36 | Link #8519 |
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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Genji was referring to Beatrice1 when he said that.
I admit I'm lost, when you say "amnesia", Judoh, who are you supposing is having amnesia of the three Beatrice and what problem does that solve?
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2010-04-20, 14:38 | Link #8520 |
Mystery buff
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
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Yeah I remember that. I have that in my notes. That might be evidence that he considered the original and the second Beatrice to be different people though since Rosa was living in the mansion by the time the second Beatrice died. He may not even consider her to be Beatrice. Maybe Genji knew Beatrice 2 on a more personal level than even Kinzo did.
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