Brexit Vote

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-times-reports

The last time the Queen was forced to dismiss a Prime MInister was 1834.

If BoJo isn't willing to leave office voluntarily, what does that say about his friend across the pond?

At least Trump received over 60 million votes. Johnson is PM because of the votes of about 100,000 Tories.

But BoJo’s polling numbers are a helluva lot better.

[SeijiSensei]

Not lately. A poll by the Independent from October 1-4 puts Johnson's disapproval rating at 54 percent.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9144236.html

That's the same as the disapproval score for Trump.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

Not lately. A poll by the Independent from October 1-4 puts Johnson's disapproval rating at 54 percent.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9144236.html

That's the same as the disapproval score for Trump.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

Which is basically irrelevant when there’s no direct election of a PM and the Tories are consistently 15 points ahead of Labour in the polls. Also, in the most recent poll I saw Johnson was ahead of Corbyn 36-16 in “preferred choice for PM”. He may have a high personal disapproval rating but with Corbyn and his Brexit bungling as a foil, none of it really matters.

[SeijiSensei]

Oh, I agree that Johnson's approval rating may mean nothing when a General Election comes around. Voting preference has been pretty consistent for a while now. Tories are in the mid-thirties, Lab and LibDem are both in the low twenties, and everyone else (UKIP, SNP, DUP, etc.) command the affections of no more than 10% of the remaining voters. Tories could squeak out a parliamentary majority on their 35% depending on where their votes are. LD will likely be squeezed in races where they compete with Labour to be the main anti-Tory candidate. But Corbyn is so unpopular that he could take the anti-Brexit forces down with him. As of this morning Labour was saying he would have to be PM in an government of national unity (GNU). That's anathema to the LDs, the independents, and the SNP. I think Speaker Bercow would be a great choice to lead a GNU, but he apparently has a lot of enemies in Parliament.

[Guardian Enzo]

The SNP is fine with Corbyn as an interim PM if he promises IndyRef 2. But without the rebel Tories it doesn't even matter what the LDs do - there's no majority. Labour is basically saying they're going to refuse to allow a temporary "unity" government. That fits with the Corbyn game plan, because he wants Brexit and it's more likely he gets it if BoJo remains in power until the next election, which his cabal of top advisors have convinced him he'll win.

As for the LDs, they would kill for low 20s - that would be their best GE performance in generations. Last poll I saw they were back in the mid-teens, as Corbyn has succeeded in splintering and demoralizing the remain vote. If the Tories win by anything close to double-digits, they'll sweep into a clear majority even at 35% of the popular vote.

[SeijiSensei]

Economist summary of polls this weekend has

Con 34%
Lab 26
LD 20
Brx 12
Grn 3
UKIP 0

There's substantial variation among all these numbers.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ing-with-boris

Remain voters have been choosing LD over Labour for some time now.

The Liberal Democrats won 22% of the popular vote in 2010.

[kari-no-sugata II]

For what this might mean for actual seats:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Matches my intuitive guess - the Conservatives could win a majority with their current numbers.

[James Rye]

With only 34% a majority???

[kari-no-sugata II]

Originally Posted by James Rye

With only 34% a majority???

Welcome to First Past The Post aka Winner Takes All. The most important thing is the gap between the top two parties, not the absolute polling numbers.

You can get a similar result with the electoral college in the US.

Before you ask for proportional representation, bear in mind that would mean the Brexit Party getting a bunch of seats.

[Guardian Enzo]

And Labour will never agree to any sort of strategic voting Remain bloc strategy, because the leadership is pro-Brexit.

[DracoS]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

Not lately. A poll by the Independent from October 1-4 puts Johnson's disapproval rating at 54 percent.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9144236.html

That's the same as the disapproval score for Trump.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

In fairness the Independent polls are a bit on the dodgy side (good luck finding one that don't match there stances). If Boris and the Torries really were in such a bad postion, it would be a great time for Labour to push for a election, yet after months under May were Corbyn seemed to be calling for a election every week, he suddenly doesn't want one!

[SeijiSensei]

The Independent's results are not out of line with other polling that ask about the PM's approval.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader...#Boris_Johnson

Since September 1st, Johnson's approval rating has been in the mid thirties.

[James Rye]

Lol, now they blame the Germans, you know the ones who's carmakers would totally call up on Merkel to make sure to give UK a favorable deal, for no-deal. Who believes this crap? XD
Ah, right, the Tory voters and Brexit Party Voters Johnson is aiming for...

[Arabesque]

So, just a brief update, but it would seem that, once again, a deal had been reached. Well, for the time being anyways, it still needs to pass the UK parliament, and we all know how that shit show is going to turn out, but let us pretend that things will work out this time and we won't be here again for another round of the UK not knowing what it wants to do.

The legal text is up:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/site...rn_ireland.pdf

And the press release by the EU

https://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-6120_en.htm

I'm still reading through it, but so far, the entire thing is basically instead of the backstop, Northern Ireland will just be in alignment with the EU regulations and the UK will pretend its still part of it.

Stuck the border in the Irish Sea rather on the Irish Isle. Expect to see a lot of smuggling in the coming years if this deal were to pass.

Then again, it would seem that our boy Boris thinks that he can get this deal to pass without the DUP, who had made it clear they did not like what they were seeing. Mess.

Notably, this is all without mentioning what is going to happen Gibraltar, which is just in as much trouble in the coming years, but I guess the UK had just accepted its going to cut off parts of its territory to just get out of the EU. Oh well. Let's just get this all over with already.

[SeijiSensei]

Bloomberg counts the votes: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...we-do-the-math

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by Arabesque

So, just a brief update, but it would seem that, once again, a deal had been reached. Well, for the time being anyways, it still needs to pass the UK parliament, and we all know how that shit show is going to turn out, but let us pretend that things will work out this time and we won't be here again for another round of the UK not knowing what it wants to do.

The legal text is up:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/site...rn_ireland.pdf

And the press release by the EU

https://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-6120_en.htm

I'm still reading through it, but so far, the entire thing is basically instead of the backstop, Northern Ireland will just be in alignment with the EU regulations and the UK will pretend its still part of it.

Stuck the border in the Irish Sea rather on the Irish Isle. Expect to see a lot of smuggling in the coming years if this deal were to pass.

Then again, it would seem that our boy Boris thinks that he can get this deal to pass without the DUP, who had made it clear they did not like what they were seeing. Mess.

Notably, this is all without mentioning what is going to happen Gibraltar, which is just in as much trouble in the coming years, but I guess the UK had just accepted its going to cut off parts of its territory to just get out of the EU. Oh well. Let's just get this all over with already.

I've heard that there is a danger of the deal passing in the UK parliament, thus freeing BoJo from the Benn Act, and then BoJo just... not signing the agreement. So no-deal exit the 31st.

[James Rye]

I can't believe BoJo is trying to push a deal worse than May one's through parliament and says without getting red or getting hit by lighting that it is a "good deal". xD

[James Rye]

Also looks like BoJo might be able to get his deal through parliament, lol, I seriously have no idea how British MPs tick that even Labour MPs gonna vote for this but not May's deal. XDDD

[Guardian Enzo]

It's what Corbyn wants.

[James Rye]

True that but seems we got a delay now because of the Letwin amendment. God, what a show! XDDD