Brexit Vote

[Arabesque]

Originally Posted by James Rye

The UK should just do a hard clean Brexit and EU should accept it for it does starting to look better than... this mess. They don't even know what they want! How are you supposed to do a deal with such a nation?

The answer is that there is no dealing with it.

A clean break might be preferable ... until you consider the 1.3 UK citizens in the EU, the 3.7 million EU citizens in the UK, the Irish border the the risk of civil violence there, Gibraltar, the people who will be at risk of death due to not having support from the EU, the disruption to medical supplies etc.

Then it is clear that bad things are going to happen to a lot of people who the UK government should have focused on protecting.

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

No Brexit worries me a lot more than No Deal. And the worst thing is, it is totally on the table, legally speaking.

Its there legally because, despite some in the UK arguing otherwise, the UK has the full sovereign right to choose whether or not it wants to be in the EU.

The only major problem is that No Brexit creates this loophole that will end up harming the EU in the long term and cause wastage of public funds as different member states start using Art. 50 as leverage in negotiating while thinking that they could still remain in the EU at the end of the day. Not to mention that the UK it self will be insufferable as a member state if after all of this it remains in its position.

Even then, it is still better than No Deal, because in that situation, the EU people living in the UK, the Irish, and those in Gibraltar will not end up sacrificed to a fate that no one knows what will happen to them in.

But that's all a moot point at this juncture. No Deal is going to be the ultimate conclusion, because if there is anything we have learned these past 2 years, is that the UK will simply choose the option of greatest destructive potential to itself.

[James Rye]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

No Brexit worries me a lot more than No Deal. And the worst thing is, it is totally on the table, legally speaking.

The way I see it, in both cases the UK might break apart. This whole Leave or Remain stuff is breaking apart the two major parties, it is breaking up families and it is dividing the countries into counties who want to remain and counties who want to leave. Funny enough the ones who want to leave most likely will be the ones hit the hardest by a hard brexit.

[Ithekro]

Wasn't it England's job to maintain the balance of power in Europe? By messing with everyone and keeping alliances shifting so that England remained relivant and no one ele could be dominate without challenge? I say England specifically because they use to do this within the British Isles as well.

[SeijiSensei]

I've heard a number of commentators and opposition politicians from Labour and the LibDems argue that May was primarily responsible for this mess. They point out that May limited the number of decision-makers to just a few Conservative cronies and keeping out even her back benchers. Despite the depth of partisan rancor in Westminster, I can certainly understand, and generally agree with, the idea that for a decision as far-reaching as this, May needed to create a cross-party coalition with better representation in Parliament. I suspect a lot of the votes she lost among the Tories were disgruntled backbenchers who felt excluded by May. And some Conservative Brexiteers whom she'd never win over.

[Dextro]

Originally Posted by Arabesque

The only major problem is that No Brexit creates this loophole that will end up harming the EU in the long term and cause wastage of public funds as different member states start using Art. 50 as leverage in negotiating while thinking that they could still remain in the EU at the end of the day. Not to mention that the UK it self will be insufferable as a member state if after all of this it remains in its position.

Even then, it is still better than No Deal, because in that situation, the EU people living in the UK, the Irish, and those in Gibraltar will not end up sacrificed to a fate that no one knows what will happen to them in.

But that's all a moot point at this juncture. No Deal is going to be the ultimate conclusion, because if there is anything we have learned these past 2 years, is that the UK will simply choose the option of greatest destructive potential to itself.

Honestly the UK as always been insufferable as far as I can remember (being in from another EU member myself). The UK always got exceptions in the treaties and bullied their way into getting what they wanted (remember David Cameron's renegotiation with the EU?)

Personally I think that if the UK ended up reverting article 50 it would loose most of it's gravitas in EU for quite a few years. Westminster would be seen has having crawled back after showing unimaginable levels of incompetence and the rest of Europe would probably chuckle in Schadenfreude after all those years of the UK messing around european diplomacy like they owned the place.

I'm personally sad to see the sorry state of British politics. I personally think that the UK's place is inside the EU and that we are all stronger together (diplomatically and economically) but the world is completely screwed up, the UK is just a symptom of the larger problem.

[Anh_Minh]

The problem is that if they stay in, they keep voting and having their veto right. As well as prolonging the shit show if they just re-trigger Article 50.

[DracoS]

Originally Posted by Dextro

Honestly the UK as always been insufferable as far as I can remember (being in from another EU member myself). The UK always got exceptions in the treaties and bullied their way into getting what they wanted (remember David Cameron's renegotiation with the EU?)

Personally I think that if the UK ended up reverting article 50 it would loose most of it's gravitas in EU for quite a few years. Westminster would be seen has having crawled back after showing unimaginable levels of incompetence and the rest of Europe would probably chuckle in Schadenfreude after all those years of the UK messing around european diplomacy like they owned the place.

I'm personally sad to see the sorry state of British politics. I personally think that the UK's place is inside the EU and that we are all stronger together (diplomatically and economically) but the world is completely screwed up, the UK is just a symptom of the larger problem.

Brexit been bubbling away for decades to be honest. We joined the EC and -then- held a referendum if we should. The whole project was sold as a trading block with optional political aspects... and then anything EU related has for the most point been kicked into the long grass since and dealt with behind closed doors.

The reason the UK has always pushed for exceptions in treaties is pretty simple if you understand this context, keeping up the sharade were just in a trading block made is far tricker if you have to keep implementing poltical features.

[James Rye]

Say, why don't we change the poll to see what majority of this forum believes will happen? May's Deal, a no Deal or even stuff like BINO (Brexit In Name Only) or a 2nd referendum?

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by Arabesque

the people who will be at risk of death due to not having support from the EU,

So the UK's medical and social support is really that incompetent?

[felix]

I have to say this "Voting again is undemocratic!" I keep hearing about is a bigger joke then trump's administration. What is this, a contest?

If you're going to decide the "fate" of the country and potentially have some economic and social collapse, then what the hell is a referendum even worth? hold 2-3 more for all it matters. If brexit actually wins (like it did with 51.89% in favor, or just 36% if we consider all voters) then hey at least nobody will feel they were conned into it.

The funniest bit here is that I actually agree that just having a referendum is not good, but not in the sense that they shouldn't have one.
Rather, maybe have one when you have some idea what your options actually are. Re-asking the same question feels like just a knee-jerk reaction.
Pretty sure even right now they still don't really get what either option really implies. How are the voters suppose to?

[Arabesque]

Originally Posted by James Rye

Say, why don't we change the poll to see what majority of this forum believes will happen? May's Deal, a no Deal or even stuff like BINO (Brexit In Name Only) or a 2nd referendum?

Don't think any option outside of a no deal Brexit at this stage. The time for any other plan is well past, and the default option will be what ends up being the end for this sorry episode.

BINO and May's Deal are pretty much dead, ever since the vote showed parliament rejected her deal with those numbers.

Dunno what new poll we could have, outside of how bad things will get for the UK.

Originally Posted by Cosmic Eagle

So the UK's medical and social support is really that incompetent?

Its less of an issue of incompetence and more of how deeply dependent the UK is on the EU for it's medical and social support.

The NHS depends on doctors, nurses, researchers and other medical personnel from the EU as being integral to the functionality of the organization and patient care. They could be replaced overtime, but there is no guarantee of that happening any time soon. And getting those personnel from elsewhere is also a big question mark, since what the immigration policy of the UK after Brexit is also a big question mark. In the interim period, that will mean that the NHS will have to cut down on the number of available medical personnel.

Then comes funding. The whole "350 million pounds a week" promise had ended up being a giant lie, but even in the event that the British government cutting its contribution to the annual budget of the EU, they still have to address other economic problems and changes that will be happening across the country. What budget will be given to the NHS will not be the same as it is now, and cuts are expected.

What the people who depend on its medical services will find themselves unable to access them any longer in that event where there is a reduction in budget, medical personnel and even the lack of ability to travel to Europe for treatment due to the changes in immigration.

Add to this the fact that due to the change in regulations and custom check of medications coming from the EU into the UK, there will also be risk of delays and shortages of essential drugs. What happens when people who need those medications for their conditions is also going to be a problem.

The social element is even more complicated, since we have regions in the UK that are entirely dependent on the support from the EU budget to maintain their communities. When this support is gone, where is the UK government going to get that money from?

This does not also mention the British nationals marrying EU nationals, living in the EU or have family in EU countries.

The reality is that the UK's current systems are deeply integrated into the EU systems, be them social or medical. The system could have been changed, or plans made to account for these problems, but they were not, so right now the UK is heading towards just cutting them off without any sort of back plan being in place.

Originally Posted by felix

I have to say this "Voting again is undemocratic!" I keep hearing about is a bigger joke then trump's administration. What is this, a contest?

If you're going to decide the "fate" of the country and potentially have some economic and social collapse, then what the hell is a referendum even worth? hold 2-3 more for all it matters. If brexit actually wins (like it did with 51.89% in favor, or just 36% if we consider all voters) then hey at least nobody will feel they were conned into it.

The funniest bit here is that I actually agree that just having a referendum is not good, but not in the sense that they shouldn't have one.
Rather, maybe have one when you have some idea what your options actually are. Re-asking the same question feels like just a knee-jerk reaction.
Pretty sure even right now they still don't really get what either option really implies. How are the voters suppose to?

Normally, it would be something decided democratically and we would be getting a few more indepth questions about what the people in the UK as a whole want in regard to how the relationship between the EU and the UK should be in the future.

But there is no time now.

The People's Choice and Second Referendum debate going on is honestly pointless because we just don't have time. Like, it took 2 years to get the deal that was just voted against. Are we going to have another referendum in less than a month, and then agree to a deal ... in a week?

The time for a Second Referendum had been lost now. It probably should have been done in the past 2 years, since the first one was pretty vague and not legal binding, but we don't have time to do that now.

Right now, it's either going to be no deal or no Brexit.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by felix

I have to say this "Voting again is undemocratic!" I keep hearing about is a bigger joke then trump's administration. What is this, a contest?

If you're going to decide the "fate" of the country and potentially have some economic and social collapse, then what the hell is a referendum even worth? hold 2-3 more for all it matters. If brexit actually wins (like it did with 51.89% in favor, or just 36% if we consider all voters) then hey at least nobody will feel they were conned into it.

Yeah, but I can understand why people would see it as asking the same question until you get the answer you want, which indeed isn't very democratic. It'd be different if they'd outlined the process right from the start, before the first vote. It could have been one, two, or even ten referendums. It certainly wouldn't have been unreasonable to have one to start the talks with the EU27, and another once the options were more clearly defined. But you had to declare it first.

It's all moot anyway. Arabesque is right, it's too late.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by James Rye

Say, why don't we change the poll to see what majority of this forum believes will happen? May's Deal, a no Deal or even stuff like BINO (Brexit In Name Only) or a 2nd referendum?

There is no need for a 2nd referendum. Just cancel the Brexit. The only people who would be upset by it are the people who want a Hard Brexit, who are a minority.

Not saying that is the plan, but it is an option if May want to go down in a blaze of glory and be remembered as a martyr doing the right thing, which is probably something she doesn't deserve for being otherwise a shitty human.

[DracoS]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

There is no need for a 2nd referendum. Just cancel the Brexit. The only people who would be upset by it are the people who want a Hard Brexit, who are a minority.

Not saying that is the plan, but it is an option if May want to go down in a blaze of glory and be remembered as a martyr doing the right thing, which is probably something she doesn't deserve for being otherwise a shitty human.

No referendum ever after would remotely be taken serously throught. No democracy in it right mind wants it people to think voting is meaningless, because that how extremists gain power.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by Arabesque

Its less of an issue of incompetence and more of how deeply dependent the UK is on the EU for it's medical and social support.

The NHS depends on doctors, nurses, researchers and other medical personnel from the EU as being integral to the functionality of the organization and patient care. They could be replaced overtime, but there is no guarantee of that happening any time soon. And getting those personnel from elsewhere is also a big question mark, since what the immigration policy of the UK after Brexit is also a big question mark. In the interim period, that will mean that the NHS will have to cut down on the number of available medical personnel.

Then comes funding. The whole "350 million pounds a week" promise had ended up being a giant lie, but even in the event that the British government cutting its contribution to the annual budget of the EU, they still have to address other economic problems and changes that will be happening across the country. What budget will be given to the NHS will not be the same as it is now, and cuts are expected.

What the people who depend on its medical services will find themselves unable to access them any longer in that event where there is a reduction in budget, medical personnel and even the lack of ability to travel to Europe for treatment due to the changes in immigration.

Add to this the fact that due to the change in regulations and custom check of medications coming from the EU into the UK, there will also be risk of delays and shortages of essential drugs. What happens when people who need those medications for their conditions is also going to be a problem.

The social element is even more complicated, since we have regions in the UK that are entirely dependent on the support from the EU budget to maintain their communities. When this support is gone, where is the UK government going to get that money from?

This does not also mention the British nationals marrying EU nationals, living in the EU or have family in EU countries.

The reality is that the UK's current systems are deeply integrated into the EU systems, be them social or medical. The system could have been changed, or plans made to account for these problems, but they were not, so right now the UK is heading towards just cutting them off without any sort of back plan being in place.

In other words it now depends on how well bureaucracy can improvise until Britain learns to be like a normal country everywhere else that has cordial, functioning relations with Europe but as an external party?

[Arabesque]

Originally Posted by Cosmic Eagle

In other words it now depends on how well bureaucracy can improvise until Britain learns to be like a normal country everywhere else that has cordial, functioning relations with Europe but as an external party?

Yes, however we have no clue as of now as to what the immediate and near future relationship with Europe will look like, and the level of improvising that the bureaucracy might need to do in order to avoid complete disaster might not be tenable at all in the scenario where no deal happens.

So, lots of question marks, a very ill prepared UK, and only 2 months to go.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by DracoS

No referendum ever after would remotely be taken serously throught. No democracy in it right mind wants it people to think voting is meaningless, because that how extremists gain power.

Do you really think voters are not allowed to change their minds?
Fundamentally, the voters were lied to concerning Brexit.
If you think votes that were influenced by a lie is legitimate, then what is illegitimate to you?

[Ithekro]

The problem being there isn't time for another vote before the deadline, and just tossing Brexit out (without another vote) breaks any notion of democratic voting rights at all for the British citizens.

[Endscape]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Do you really think voters are not allowed to change their minds?
Fundamentally, the voters were lied to concerning Brexit.
If you think votes that were influenced by a lie is legitimate, then what is illegitimate to you?

It's one thing to have another referendum (and that would have it's own problems too) but they cannot just go against what the people have voted for, even if it is stupid or they were lied to, because that would be going against democracy itself.

Most likely they'll just extend Article 50 until they're ready.

[James Rye]

Yeah, but I don't think the EU will be that happy about the idea to extend A50 when there is no clear path/plan for the UK parliament to take. Extending for the sake of extending is just extra costs which the UK does not want to pay for despite being the ones that are hindering the process. There are already voices in the EU saying a ending with horror is better than no ending with horror. Lets not forget there are the EU elections soonish and if UK is still in there during that time that means they would have to put up people to vote for and make sure their people go voting as well, that all costs money again, for something they don't wanna have as they want to leave the EU.