2020 US Presidential Election Discussion (primary & general)

[kari-no-sugata II]

Originally Posted by Magin

It's not over until a candidate drops or all states have had their primaries. I will keep saying that Biden looks good, BUT I understand that there's still 53% of delegates to go. Which is still the majority. Again, it's all about who shows up to the polls from here on.

Which is technically correct but kinda misses the point. While the majority of delegates haven't been awarded, it's not like the race has been reset. Just to have a chance of getting a plurality by the time of the convention, Bernie would need to win by 20% or more. But he's down by 20% or more. So he'd need a 40-50% swing to win.

It's not for nothing that 538's model has Bernie as a less than 1% chance:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/

Unless Biden gets sick or something really out there happens, it's basically over.

[Key Board]

It seems Bernie is just there to push Biden left, now.
Seems... to be working, though?

//

[Toukairin]

Originally Posted by Key Board

It seems Bernie is just there to push Biden left, right now.
Seems... to be working, though?

//

Hopefully. I think that it is the main objective as far as Sanders keeps on going.

[Guardian Enzo]

He may want to also consider that by forcing contested primaries after the outcome is a foregone conclusion, he's making it more difficult for people to self-isolate. Especially considering that a sizable number of poll workers are elderly.

[Reckoner]

Bernie's campaign has proven to be an abject failure. The entire premise was to say that he could turn out low propensity voters at a rate no one else can and this was his theory of electability. The problem is that once elections start happening the proof is in the pudding and now he does not seem electable at all. All the new Democratic voters turning out came out for Biden. The rural voters he won in 2016 over Hillary are going for Biden. Trying to win an election with 35% of the vote, hoping that the rest of the field remained fractured almost worked but he made no progress in expanding his coalition. Worse, the progressive candidate who was more palatable to the suburban voters that powered the 2018 midterms and also agreeable with progressives was torn down because of his own vanity. He also started doing stupid things like praising Castro again and double downing on his Democratic socialist label. After his heart attack he should have dropped out and backed Warren if he wanted progressives to have the best shot possible, but he outflanked her from the left and had his followers spam snake emojis instead. A complete failure to coalition build.

Ultimately the only thing people care about this election is electability so it may not have mattered. This resulted in people believing only an old white man could win, and ultimately one who was "moderate". I don't like it but that's what happened. The best we can hope for at this point is for Warren and Sanders to push Biden to the left. Unfortunately, Sanders is hopelessly incompetent at debating. That last debate was embarrassing and he somehow lost to the mentally deficient Biden. This election is over and it's time to consolidate. Sanders brought a lot to the progressive movement in 2016 but he may have just sent back progress in the Democratic party years with his toxic campaign.

[Guardian Enzo]

Biden certainly didn't look mentally deficient in that debate. But whether you believe he is or not, he's the guy and it's him or Trump. There are no other options and to me, that choice couldn't be easier.

I certainly agree Sanders made a tactical error in making to attempt to broaden his coalition beyond his core support. That "I'm coming for you" tweet he sent after his tepid victory in NH was emblematic of his whole campaign. Fact is turnout among young voters was down across the board this time, and the Bernie coalition never translated into one that could actually win outside the world of social media - not even in 2016 against an opponent with some of the worst favoribility ratings of any major party nominee in the modern era (exceeded only by Trump's).

I regret Sherrod Brown didn't run, because I think he could have united the party in a way Warren sadly couldn't (almost entirely because of sexism, I would argue). But he didn't and she was clearly the best candidate who did run, so I supported her. It didn't happen. The primaries have run their course, Biden has an insurmountable lead, the country is in a terrible crisis and ready to move on. It's time to think about November and making sure Trump doesn't try to flaunt the constitution again and try to cancel the election.

[Key Board]

It's a weird time when the GOP is more left than the Democrats on some issues. Emergency UBI, suspension of all evictions, home loan foreclosures

//

[Magin]

Even I'm forced to admit that unless something miraculous occurs, Bernie is out of the race. Of course, the biggest problem with that is even if I was back home to cast a vote for this election, NY doesn't have its primary for over another month.

Really, my biggest issue with Biden is that it means we're going back to all the Obama-era problems... and that's ignoring the fact that both Biden and Trump appear to be literally losing their minds. I loathe Trump, but he knows how to be charismatic to just enough people to win. Biden is your Moderate White (Rich) Male- keep the status quo and generally be quiet about all the issues. Don't regress, but make no progress either. Student loan debt will stay stagnant, you're going to be paying for Obamacare again and making insurance companies happy while your bank account is empty (this is the worst part!), and generally anything that benefits corporations is what a Biden presidency means. With Republicans, at least they're actively telling you they're going to make life miserable unless you're rich and white. Democrats attempt to let you down gently... but they're still going to let you down. They'll cut taxes for the middle class, too... while letting corporate greed still run rampant. I hate to use the narrative of Both Sides Are the Same, but Biden is a perfect example of this. About the only good things that might come of it are some competent people in cabinet positions, and a left-leaning SCJ.

Sigh. I fully admit I'm on the side of "help the middle class and hurt the corporations", but Biden is going to help both... and give it a decade or less, and we'll be right back in our current mess. But I suppose baby steps are better than what we have now.

[Guardian Enzo]

I don't know how anyone could watch that last debate and conclude that Biden was "losing his mind". That narrative is just a last-ditch piece of political slander.

[Key Board]

I see the Trump and the GOP pivoting left of some issues.

Why do I get the feeling that Trump might reveal his own version of M4A the presidential election?
Yeah, it goes against GOP ideology, but Trump is loyal to himself.

If that happens than well. The democratic party can only blame themselves for that.

//

[coded321]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

I don't know how anyone could watch that last debate and conclude that Biden was "losing his mind". That narrative is just a last-ditch piece of political slander.

Its when we see stuff like this.
https://twitter.com/QueenInYeIIow/st...34256882073600
https://www.politico.com/video/2020/...n-stage-069778
http://https://twitter.com/shaunking...ive-decline%2F
https://twitter.com/KyleKulinski/sta...45536418492416
You really have no idea how much i wish it was just slander. In this case its a double standard. MSM constantly talks and discusses about the signs of trump's cognitive decline, but yet claims those exact same signs we see from biden are just "gaffes". And when he is lucid, we get treated to a wholesale of absolute lies about his horrible record or him telling key voters "they're full of s**t", simply providing more ammunition for trump to use against him in the fall. But, in the name of "unity", we have to ignore this crap, along with all his other baggage, because at least he's not trump!


Hell, if we had this "other biden" from 2016, i'd vote for this guy, despite his crap record:

YouTube

https://youtu.be/Li4PG7nmlyM

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

[Magin]

Not to mention... even when he was merely Obama's VP he was prone to many "gaffe" moments. We're talking Dubya Bush levels of political gaffes. I distinctly remember several late-night show hosts saying "You know, we lost Bush and can't make fun of him anymore. But, in return, we now get Joe Biden!"

I'm sorry, but I want a candidate who is exemplary, not someone who the late-night shows can crap on all the time. Joe Biden is not that candidate. But maybe it's too much to ask for any respect for my home country after all these years of Trump.

[ganbaru]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O78XUDVzENI

I don't know if they are right, but the idea is interesting.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Key Board

It's a weird time when the GOP is more left than the Democrats on some issues. Emergency UBI, suspension of all evictions, home loan foreclosures

"We're all Keynesians now."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/We_are_all_Keynesians_now

[ramlaen]

Originally Posted by Key Board

It's a weird time when the GOP is more left than the Democrats on some issues. Emergency UBI, suspension of all evictions, home loan foreclosures

//

[James Rye]

Given the jump from 218k to 680k jobless within a week I am not sure a 1000$ are going to cut it when the average rent in the US is around 1200$. I feel like this won't be the last time the US government hands over free monies to their citizens in the coming months.

[coded321]

Its certainly better than nothing.

[Guardian Enzo]

It's not better than the actual benefits Pelosi is pushing for and the Republicans are blocking, which would be worth a lot more than $1000 to the typical person. It's the classic right-wing approach of offering simple solutions to complex problems.

[ganbaru]

Originally Posted by coded321

Its certainly better than nothing.

Would be more useful than the previous tax cut, which mostly fueled share buyback and the bubble than just bursted.

[Guardian Enzo]

We now know at least two Republican Senators left a Coronavirus briefing, sold millions in stock and then went before the public and echoed Trump's line that everything was under control and fine.