2012-08-29, 06:47 | Link #30241 | |||
Human
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Crime Scene
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Second: But she has the hints all over the game, since the moment her cat-tail appears in our unworthy screens still the moment Bern's described to be... a black cat. PS: Yeah, Me too. At least we aren't taking this arguing seriously or it'd be pretty stupid XD Quote:
Or a stealth shout out to some detail in the series? Nah... Quote:
So, by the moment Tohya knew exactly Battler he wasn't writing forgeries anymore. All those are written by the still amnesiac Tohya. Edit: Lazy post is lazy. Gotta go to work. -_-
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2012-08-29, 07:42 | Link #30242 | |||
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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But I'm not sure I understand what is yours. Quote:
Circular reasoning (also known as paradoxical thinking or circular logic), is a logical fallacy Quote:
How is this different from Knownnomore? If Ikuko isn't Yasu, then Touya must be Battler. I mean, exactly like it appears to be without thinking about never mentioned conspiracies behind the scenes.
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2012-08-29, 08:38 | Link #30243 |
BUY MY BOOK!!!
Join Date: May 2009
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It is more likely that the person Ikuko met is a stranger than Ushiromiya Battler, in a raw probabilistic sense that "I saw a stranger crossing the street on my way to work" is probabilistically more likely to occur than "I saw Michael Jordan crossing the street on my way to work." Unless, of course, you happen to drive past Michael Jordan's house every day right about the time he goes out for a jog.
So the chances of Ikuko finding a person who happens to actually be Battler by chance is incredibly small, smaller than finding a random stranger who just so happens to have amnesia too, unless of course she was actually looking for Battler himself. In which case we'd need to know why she was looking for him and how she knew where to look. Otherwise it's by far the biggest and unlikeliest coincidence in the entire storyline, if only because it's a situation that is not self-contained to a small area like the stuff on Rokkenjima. I mean, even if Battler became an amnesiac hobo, he could be anywhere in Japan depending on whether or when he was found prior to encountering Ikuko and by whom. Hell, he could be anywhere on Earth, but let's assume he's not likely to leave the main part of Japan without sufficient faculties to do so. Encountering such a person by complete chance is exceedingly unlikely. The more likely scenarios are:
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2012-08-29, 09:12 | Link #30245 | |
Human
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Crime Scene
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If Battler escaped from Rokkenjima, the only likely place where he could wash alive is Niijima (a little island of 23,5 km2 aprox., from were the Ushiromiyas take the boat to Rokkenjima). I can't, for the life of me, think that the 18 year old amnesiac, confused and most likely hurt boy could even get OUTSIDE of Niijima without anyone seeing him. He'd need to take a plane or a boat, to begin with. So, it's very likely that Battler was in that island when he was taken by Ikuko. What in the world was Ikuko doing in Niijima? If she lived in that place, the probability of finding Battler goes up to the sky, for the fact that the litile place is not very populated nor big. How many hurt/amnesiac people can you find in a small place like that, and what's the probability of them not being conected to the Big Boom in the next island were only a rich family lived? Is easy believe for the woman that the man was actually an Ushiromiya. With Ikuko being an hermit, she wouldn't be that much in tune with news of the outside/real world, so she wouldn't know inmediately but with a little investigation she'd make her conclusions about Tohya's identity. So: Ikuko living in Niijima = Very likely to find Battler by chance. Ikuko living anywhere else = What the hell were you doing in that small island, if you are supposed to be an hermit?
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Last edited by Patchwork Chimera; 2012-08-29 at 09:25. |
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2012-08-29, 09:20 | Link #30246 | ||||
Detective, Witch, Pirate.
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Ruins of the Golden Land
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The fact that Bernkastel is depticted as a black cat does not prove her hair is also black. Black fur does not necessarily imply black hair. Minerva McGonagall can transform into a cat but its fur has no relation to her hair colour. The black cat aspects are of Bern are just put in there for fanservice and possibly to trace back to Rika's punishment game outfit. The tail proves nothing. (We should really be ending this, I feel like we're eating up thread space by being stupid ) Quote:
And after all, Battler IS a stranger to Ikuko. Anyone else could have found him by pure chance, it just happened to be her. No matter how improbable, it's not that hard to accept. Plus, of all the astronomical coincidences in Umineko, is that really the one that bothers you? Quote:
As for myself, it really touched me the second time I read through it. The first one did leave me a disappointing aftertaste for some reason. Quote:
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2012-08-29, 10:39 | Link #30247 | ||||||
Goat
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
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But, even if we assume it's as you say, it's still strange that Touya would remember the backstories of other people better than that of himself... Quote:
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This sequence of argument has been about comparing my "Touya=random_amnesiac" theory and your "Touya=hired_actor" theory, both of which require Touya to not be Battler, which implies that Ikuko must be Yasu. You seem to have forgotten what we were actually arguing about and accused me of "assuming Ikuko=Yasu" in the middle of a debate where both our ideas imply it's assumption by default, anyway. I am annoyed by this. Quote:
If we assume Battler really did make it to civilization, then someone is going to find him. If Ikuko was remotely normal, the fact that she found him wouldn't mean much. What's weird is that the "someone" who found Battler was the only person in the world who would secretly adopt him. |
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2012-08-29, 11:14 | Link #30248 | |||
Human
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Crime Scene
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But Minerva McGonagall is a gray cat. And her hair is gray... argh! Enough! Quote:
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After all, Tohya wouldn't be able to write anything about backstories if he had just his own Battler memories to go by, by the simple fact of the six years he was away from his family. The personalities, on the other hand, could be taken from his scarce memories of the Rokkenjima incident and before, Yasu's letters, etc. Besides, I'd think is easier to remember his past before Rokkenjima that the traumatic experiencie lived in that island that caused him to lose it.
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2012-08-29, 12:13 | Link #30249 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2011
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I think it's a beautiful episode, myself. |
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2012-08-29, 12:23 | Link #30250 | |||
The True Culprit
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If it's the problem of where the two are getting their information, we don't really have any proof that Ikuko's never read Eva's diary. Just saying.
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2012-08-29, 12:44 | Link #30251 | |
BUY MY BOOK!!!
Join Date: May 2009
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But you're kind of... not very good at probability here with that reasoning of yours. The point is what Wanderer noted: It's not [relatively that] unusual that Ikuko would meet an amnesiac stranger, and it's not [relatively that] unusual that someone would find and help amnesiac Battler. It is exceedingly more relatively unlikely that Ikuko would be the one who finds Battler, purely by chance. The chance of two unlikely events happening at the same time is extremely low unless the scenario is designed such that happening simultaneously is the only way those events could have occurred. It's still possible, it's just unfathomably less possible than one of the two events happening by itself. To wave your hand and say "Well, it could have happened, just like I could be the person to win the lottery this week, ergo there is nothing wrong with the writing" is missing the point of willing suspension of disbelief. A reader of a fiction can expect and accept coincidences; ultimately, small to moderate coincidences are necessary to drive a story forward. We accept that, in a love story, the fated couple is just going to bump into each other or come into each others' lives at some point, even if they aren't set up with the best reason (though if they are, so much the better). We accept that, in a story about a guy who happens upon a fortune and loses it in a series of hilarious and unfortunate mishaps, the guy stumbling upon the money is going to just happen to be the one who does so and not some other guy we're not reading about. The coincidences we're asked to accept in Umineko are stacked to the ceiling, but we accept that for one extraordinary and magical weekend in 1986, bizarre and magical things happened. Even that is pushing it, but for the sake of entertaining the mystery-versus-fantasy battle most people are fine with it even if they have reservations about some of the execution (such as the killer getting away with incredibly risky maneuvers without leaving any evidence or risking being caught). And then the veil lifts, and we're back in the "real" world, and... oh massive coincidences just keep happening. We'll accept that Battler lived. We'll accept he was washed up on a foreign shore without memories. But seriously, now he's just coincidentally stumbling upon the one person who can help him? And she's just coincidentally stumbling upon him? Right now, at this very moment? And everything just mostly works out fine? Really? It makes a mockery of Bernkastel's role in the story if miracles are literally a dime a dozen. And given some of the story themes about creating miracles by fostering appropriate circumstances, it would make more sense if at the very least Ikuko had calculated where debris from Rokkenjima might wash up and regularly visited that area looking for information when she stumbled upon an actual survivor. At least then the encounter would make sense, fit with her motives, and not seem like an unfathomably unlikely coincidence, even though it is still a coincidence.
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2012-08-29, 13:13 | Link #30252 | ||||||
Detective, Witch, Pirate.
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Ruins of the Golden Land
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Bern is a black cat. Black is the color of her dress. Checkmate. (Sorry, I couldn't resist....) Quote:
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Ryukishi said they do have some hints towards the actual truth. If we are willing to trust that, then Toya's and Ikuko's forgeries have grains of truth in them, BUT that's a "courtesy" on Ryukishi's part, on a Meta-Meta level outside of the story. I guess what I'm saying is, technically speaking, the forgeries could have nothing to do with Rokenjima. Hell, the Ushiromiya family may have even been kidnapped by aliens, as long as the cat box is closed, anything can be inside. Ryukishi might have put hints towards Prime somewhere, perhaps, within his story, but that doesn't mean he felt like Toya and Ikuko were aware of it. If you try to read that into the story, yeah, it screws it all up, but then again that's just my theory. Quote:
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2012-08-29, 17:30 | Link #30253 | ||
Goat
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
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Yeah, that's what I'm saying. So why doesn't Battler's life during the last 6 years ever creep into the story? |
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2012-08-30, 00:40 | Link #30255 |
The True Culprit
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Because it 'feels legit'.
Really, it's just a handwave, since it's not like we get any other Forgeries to compare them to. It's kind of like when Ikuko refused to show off Eva's diary and that made the Witch Hunting fandom die off....for uh. Some reason.
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2012-08-30, 03:03 | Link #30256 |
Endless Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
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Because they were training to be ninjas so they can break in and steal the diary, obviously. You don't have time to theorize when you have to learn to go into stealth mode.
In all honesty though, you'd think the police would be coming down on Ikuko for her shit. |
2012-08-30, 03:38 | Link #30257 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2010
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So, at what point has Battler's past become a blank slate? Like we know nothing about the guy, when we have plenty of info about the last 6 years? He was a sporty, extroverted, popular kid living with Asumu's parents until they died. Refused to speak to Rudolf out of stubbornness, but occasionally spent time with Kyrie and Ange. Not the brightest bulb, but not a dunce either. had a few girls interested, but disliked their tendency to be interested in Astrology and the like. Apparently a bit of a mystery buff.
Again, I'm making the Meta-Meta assumption that despite the wiggle room the forgeries allowed, Ryukishi is presenting the characters selves fairly straightforwardly, because ... well, damnit, everything is far simpler that way, and there are enough elements that can be much more reasonably doubted, as it is. Though I must admit, every single person I've tried to introduce Umineko to, EVERY SINGLE ONE, assumed the plot would pull a Shyamalan and reveal that Battler was the killer all along. And, to be fair, EP5 at least appears to give us an accomplice Battler of a sort. And EP6 is full on trollolol Piece-Battler. |
2012-08-30, 03:51 | Link #30258 | |
The True Culprit
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2012-08-30, 03:53 | Link #30259 | |
Endless Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
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Seriously, what was the point of comparing Battler to his delusional murderer and incestuous rapist of a grandfather at the end of the day? |
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