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Old 2009-12-27, 02:32   Link #1101
Arbane the Terrible
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steampunk Librarian View Post
It was for Episode 1, specifically used when referring to the clockwise deaths, when Genji, Kumasawa and Nanjo were all found dead while Maria faced a wall.

However, The Red Truth is absolute, as in, even if Beatrice was using the Red to speak of that particular incident, she would not be capable of saying it if it did not apply to the entire world of Episode 1. The reasoning being because the Red which was given does not specify this incident; therefor its vagueness is more like a blanket statement in which Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not murderers
Okay, so Battler's Mexican Stand-Off theory is wrong, then. Figures.
And since everyone else who's accounted for at that time was locked up in the study, it'd have to be someone we already thought was dead.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steampunk Librarian View Post
I've begun to think there are 2 factions, because everyone ends up dead.

Spoiler for Faction A:


Spoiler for Faction B:


I made an edit on B if anyone just read this lol.
The servants and Rudolph/Kyrie, also. Don't forget that Ange also supposedly received an envelope after the massacre. (Which would explain Rudolph's "I'll probably die tonight" comment in EP1.) But most people are rather keen to not die...how did Faction A manage to coerce them into this?

Hm... I'd guessed there were a minimum of two groups, but I divided them up differently:

Spoiler for Faction 1:


Spoiler for Faction 2:


These two groups have obvious reasons to be antagonistic to each other. But it's more complicated than that...

Spoiler for Miscellaneous Random Factors:


As to how Battler's sin relates to this, or why the corpses start piling up, THAT I'm still working on.

And there's one other element: the stakes. (Copied from TVTropes. Don't go there if you don't have a lot of free time.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by TVTropes: Wild Mass Guessing for Umineko
"Who could the staker be? The adults all die and stakings continue. The servants all die and stakings continue. Jessica dies, George dies, Maria dies... but nothing can stop the stakings! It's just barely conceivable that Nanjo could have staked everybody singlehandedly even though that requires staking himself in "Turn of the Golden Witch". It absolutely staggers credulity that Battler could be doing it. If any bit of the story demands for a supernatural explanation, it's the horrifying consistency of the stakings."
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Old 2009-12-27, 03:07   Link #1102
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Ah, this could be useful: Someone posted The complete text of Battler and Beatrice's blue and red battle at the end of the VN 4th episode. There's a quite a bit more to it than was shown in the anime.
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Old 2009-12-27, 03:09   Link #1103
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Thanks for the link!

My theory:

I think that there's one main culprit 'Beatrice', the main culprit's accomplice(s) and then another killer who changes depending on how the game starts kinda like the L5 people in Higurashi (Yes, I know how much people hate comparing Higurashi to Umineko)

In Ep1, maybe George was the person with the 'Syndrome', and he killed Shannon because she declined his proposal (Anyone else find it strange that he lied about Shannon smiling?) and 'Beatrice' saw, and made a deal with him/blackmailed him into helping them, or they'll tell everyone that he killed Shannon.

My theory is that 'Beatrice' is Kanon. Each time, his death was kinda suspicious. In Ep1, everyone else was dead when discovered except for him. If Nanjo was his accomplice, he could have had him and Jessica lie about his death, or pretended to be dead to Jessica. In Ep2, his body disappeared and he was seen killing people afterwards, and then went poof. In Ep3, he came back as a ghost. In Ep4, he fell down the escape tunnel thing AKA disappeared. Suspicious right?

I'm pretty sure Nanjo is the accomplice/in on it too, he plays chess with a dead guy waaaaayyyyyy too much to not be suspicious
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Old 2009-12-27, 05:05   Link #1104
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Another reason Nanjo is probably an accomplice in all the chapters: He's the only medical expert on the island. In every chapter, he is the one to give the diagnoses of death and injury. He is indispensible to the killer as a tool to obscure his or her trail, if we accept the theory that the killer is playing possum at one point or another to gain more freedom to move.

A point of order: the red statement 'Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not murderers' is as treacherous as any other. If the three of them were somehow pressured into committing suicide, after which Maria hides the guns under 'Beatrice's' orders, they are not murderers, but suicides. The red statement that 'they were killed by other people' is not a total contradiction of this theory: if someone else put on the pressure that brought them to a point that they committed suicide, then the ultimate responsibility for the death belongs to the manipulator.

People will try to stay alive, yes. But you can put pressure on them that will make them see death as the preferable alternative. Just prior to his death in the third arc, Nanjo pleads with whoever has come to kill him that he has a sick child that he needs to care for. As soon as I heard that, I felt it was a strong motivation for him to play accomplice to one or some of the murderers.
Does anyone know exactly how sick Nanjo's child is? Does his clinic provide enough funds to care for this child? Until more information is provided, I feel secure in saying Nanjo is in desperate need of money to care for his child. This has left him open to persuasion and manipulation from the murderer. As such, Nanjo is a constant accomplice to the murderer in the first three arcs, providing a distraction that allows one or some of the murderers to move freely.

Last edited by Aebliss; 2009-12-27 at 05:26.
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Old 2009-12-27, 10:13   Link #1105
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I still think its too soon to pin the murders on one person and then to try to prove it by viewing the games as if that person had done them. Kanon is suspicious, which in and of itself is suspicious. Kanon is most likely innocent, at least he cannot possibly be the mastermind.

Until we know more about Kanon, I propose that Kanon is not the murderer. We have to consider the possibility that Kanon undergoing mysterious deaths is apart of the overall crime. Maybe it is in the culprits benefit Kanon look suspicious in case the guise of "Beatrice" does not fool everyone.
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Old 2009-12-28, 17:15   Link #1106
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Quote:
(Anyone else find it strange that he lied about Shannon smiling?)
I have to correct you here. Both in VN and manga Shannon smiled at him.
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Old 2009-12-28, 17:36   Link #1107
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Is it possible that Maria is a key element of the murder plot? All the supposedly magical elements - the stakes, the Goethian magic circles - were in her diary/grimoire, weren't they? The Siestas were her toys. Is someone using Maria's diary and life as inspiration to confuse and intimidate, or is someone going to a lot of trouble to play along with Maria's beliefs?

Or does this go deeper? Did someone start this killing spree to protect the children of the Ushiromiya clan from their rather lacking parents? Or was someone so traumatised by all the hardship those kids have known, that they snapped and felt it better if all the Ushiromiyas were dead?

Battler committed some sin, six years ago. He abandoned his Ushiromiya name becaus ehe felt Rudolph has dishonoured the memory of Asumu by immediately remarrying. Battler left and did not return to Rokkenjima, which is part of the cause of the murders. Jessica has been pressured and pressured into becoming heiress, when she really wants to cut loose and be a normal teenager. George has been molded into the perfect heir since birth by his mother, who wants to determine who he'll marry. Maria ... Need I say more?

Four children, all ill-treated in one way or another. Even if some or most of the parents may have had the best of intentions, even if some of them sincerely regretted what they'd done wrong, they still moved their own flesh and blood like pawns for their own campaign, or harboured a vicious hatred for them. Did someone fall into despair at seeing this? Did someone decide this family needed to be stamped out, uprooted and destroyed?
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Old 2009-12-28, 17:36   Link #1108
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I'm very certain, by Word of God, it was stated there is no Umineko Syndrome.
Personally, I am positively certain Ryukishi would NOT use the same gimmick again, because it makes for a horrible story if he just rewrote Higurashi and only change the setting/characters/format.
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Old 2009-12-28, 19:32   Link #1109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitsu View Post
I have to correct you here. Both in VN and manga Shannon smiled at him.
Yeah, but in the anime he said that she smiled, and then it showed us a shot of her not smiling... But then again the anime isn't that reliable =.=
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Old 2009-12-28, 19:43   Link #1110
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Originally Posted by ChibiBear View Post
Yeah, but in the anime he said that she smiled, and then it showed us a shot of her not smiling... But then again the anime isn't that reliable =.=
YXeah and in the manga we see a flashback of her smiling and from the VN we know that she smiled at him and that he saw that. So I can suppose you can go with the VN/manga verse in this one and don't build up a theory on a possible mistake
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Old 2009-12-29, 00:05   Link #1111
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This is probably completely un-related to what everyone else is talking about, but...

Spoiler for after anime episode 26?:
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Old 2009-12-29, 00:06   Link #1112
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Season 1 finished at episode 26 and the new season can't come out until the VN is finished or nearly finished which won't be a for a while T_T
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Old 2009-12-29, 09:38   Link #1113
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All right it's time to give some more food for thoughts.

This is a timeline a reconstructed using various informations spread out into the first 4 arcs of Umineko. Note that these might not be 100% true, but this is what the people on Rokkenjima claim. Note that whenever you see "Ca." it means the exact date is around that time, it could be even 2 or 3 years more or less than that.


Timeline:

- 1906 Ca. Kumasawa's birth
- 1923 Kanto earthquake exterminates the main family branch of the Ushiromiya and destroys their wealth
- 1948 Ca. Captain Kawabata starts transporting goods to Rokkenjima's Kuwadorian
- 1950 Kinzo makes a huge fortune from the Korean war
- 1952 The Rokkenjima Mansion's construction is finshed
- 1956 Ca. Kinzo and his family move from Odawara to Rokkenjima
- 1956 Ca. The legend of the witch in the forest becomes popular between the servants
- 1956 Ca. Rumors about a Kinzo's secret lover hidden somewhere in Rokkenjima start spreading
- 1956 Krauss's and Natsuhi's marriage
- 1963 George's birth
- 1967 Rosa meets the Beatrice in the Kuwadorian, who supposedly dies soon after escaping
- 1967 Both Kyrie and Asumu get pregnant
- 1967-1968 Rudolf's and Asumu's marriage
- 1968 Ca. (but most probably 1967) Captain Kawabata stops transporting goods to Rokkenjima's Kuwadorian
- 1968 Jessica's birth
- 1968 (15 July) Battler's birth
- 1970 Shannon's birth
- 1970 Kanon's birth
- 1976 Shannon starts working in the Ushiromiya's Mansion
- 1977 Maria's birth
- 1980 Battler commits a sin
- 1980 Asumu's death
- 1980 (Not much after Asumu's death) Rudolf's and Kyrie's marriage
- 1980 (Around the time of Rudolf's and Kyrie's marriage) Battler moves to his grandparents from his mother side
- 1980 Ange's birth
- 1983 Kanon starts working in the Ushiromiya's Mansion
- 1984 Gohda starts working in the Ushiromiya's Mansion
- 1984 The Guesthouse (Toraian) construction is completed
- 1984 (April) The Witch's epitaph is written and exposed
- 1984 (October) Last time Kinzo shows up at a family meeting
- 1985 (October) Nanjo announces that Kinzo has about 3 months left to live
- 1986 (Summer) The Torii disappears (supposedly after being hit by a lightning)
- 1986 (Before October) The last of Battler's grandparents from his mother side die
- 1986 (Before October) Rudolf literally prostrates in front of Battler to ask for his forgiveness and finally Battler returns back to his father home.
- 1986 (October 3) Ange gets sick
- 1986 (October 4) Last Ushiromiya family meeting


Other hints related to time:

- Natsuhi is 3 years younger than Eva
- Eva is 2 years younger than Krauss
- Genji remembers Kinzo in his youth
- Kumasawa served Kinzo for at least 30 years
- Nanjo have been friend with Kinzo for about 30 years, however he started attending the Ushiromiya's family meetings only recently.
- The Beatrice that supposedly lent the gold to Kinzo died in the year 1952 or before, according to Genji
- Natsuhi had Jessica after 12 years of marriage
- Suit Beatrice (ep2) says she and Kinzo haven't talked for 30 years
- Rosa says she was a middle schooler when she met Beatrice. Rudolf confirms that since the time Rosa was a middle schooler about 20 years have passed
- Kinzo says that he met Beatrice after the war (1945+)
- Hideyoshi begun smoking right after the war,
- When Rosa was a kid Eva and Krauss were already adults (20+), however Rudolf was still a minor.
- Rudolf was still in elementary school when the Ushiromiya family moved to Rokkenjima
- Eva used to play with Rosa when the latter was still a kindergartener (or so Eva says)
- Jessica remembers something that her grandmother said (which means she didn't die before Jessica could remember her)


The main characters's ages at the time of the game:

Kinzo: He's been selected as the new head after the great Kanto earthquake (1923) when he was still young. We know he wasn't married yet. We can assume that at that time he was about 20 years old, plus/minus five years. At the time of his death he must have been 80 years old or close to it.

Kumasawa: Battler says she must be around 80 years old.

Nanjo: We have absolutely no info on Nanjo, but judging from the look and the fact he retired he must be at least 70 years old or more.

Genji: No info on him either, however since he remembers Kinzo in his youth, Genji can't be that young. He doesn't seem to have any handicap or having any physical problem, no one mention such a thing in his case (despite what happens to Kumasawa). He must be around 70 years old or a little less.

Hideyoshi: We know that he started smoking right after the war. He must have been at least 14 by then. So at the very least Hideyoshi has 55 years.

Krauss: He is 5 years older than Natsuhi. Considering that they have been married for 30 years and that it isn't very likely that Krauss married before finishing his studies, I think he must have at least 53 years, probably 55.

Eva: She is 2 years younger than Krauss, so she's also on her fifties, probably above 50.

Natsuhi: is 3 years younger than Eva and she must have been at least 14 to marry. 44 is the minimum age she can have. However for reasons explained above she is probably around 50 years old

Rudolf: He was in elementary school when the family moved to Rokkenjima. This means he is a lot younger than Eva and Krauss. However the range in which they moved to Rokkenjima and the range of elementary school are wide.
min age: (6 years old in 1956) 36 years <- unrealistic because he would have been father while still a minor
max age: (12 years old in 1952) 46 years
Most probable age is a little above 40 years

Gohda: Zero info on his age, it can be only speculated he is on his forties by his look. Considering his story in Gohda's booklet, it is unlikely he is older than this.

Kyrie: We have absolutely no info on Kyrie's age. However what kind of philanderer would date older girls? Plus the way Rudolf treats her make me think she's definitely younger. She's probably on her 40s. She must have been already an adult when she got pregnant the first time.

Rosa: Since she was a middle schooler in 1967, min age 31 and max age 34. Her actual age is probably in between.

George: He's 23 years old

Jessica: She's 18 years old

Battler: He's 18 years old

Shannon: She's 16 years old

Kanon: He's 16 years old

Maria: She's 9 years old

Ange: She's 6 years old
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Old 2009-12-29, 13:06   Link #1114
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I wonder ... how terrible is the mundane truth of the murders to Battler specifically? In the fourth game (going by what happened in the anime) Kyrie tells Battler not to doubt the reality of witches and demons if they appear in front of him. Kyrie has struck me as a very logical person, disinclined to believing in the supernatural, and she says herself that she has resented Battler at times.

How mind-scarringly horrible must the mundane truth be to Battler for Kyrie to want to shield him from it? Or else, what other advantage could there be to it for her to have Battler believe in the supernatural explanation, rather than the criminological one?
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Old 2009-12-29, 18:05   Link #1115
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Given that Bern and Lambda seem to be behind everything, I wonder if it will eventually come down to the rest of the cast simply refusing to play and revolting. It'd be cool to see everyone against the 2 witches and maybe even try to deny their existence.
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Old 2009-12-29, 18:16   Link #1116
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I think it is Nanjo he is just one suspicious bastard >.>
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Old 2009-12-30, 13:23   Link #1117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Archon_Wing View Post
Given that Bern and Lambda seem to be behind everything, I wonder if it will eventually come down to the rest of the cast simply refusing to play and revolting. It'd be cool to see everyone against the 2 witches and maybe even try to deny their existence.
I'm absolutely sure a meta-World revolt is going to happen. An Epic battle for sure! I really do hope they do something though because Bernkastel and Lambda are rude.

EDIT: Question

Is there any HARD proof that Jessica likes Kanon? Like any scenes Battler/a detective is in to confirm its Kanon that she likes?

Last edited by Steampunk Librarian; 2009-12-30 at 13:41.
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Old 2009-12-30, 13:40   Link #1118
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Originally Posted by Leo_Otaku View Post
I think it is Nanjo he is just one suspicious bastard >.>
Well, he's definitely under suspicion for lying about who's alive (and who's dead?), but he usually has pretty good alibis for most of the murders.

The first twilight of the third game being a conspicuous exception.
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Old 2009-12-30, 14:51   Link #1119
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Nanjo doesn't have to be a murderer to be an accomplice. All he has to do is know about the murders and lie.
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Old 2010-01-11, 17:11   Link #1120
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Nanjo in the first game is the one at most suspicion. First question in the first game was who gave Maria the letter and umbrella, Nanjo claimed to be playing chess with Kinzo. However that cannot be counted as an alibi since there is no evidence that Kinzo was alive.

Natsuhi visited Kinzo, but that may be a lie as well. After all Eva's paper was still stuck within the door, which supports the theory that Kinzo was not in the room.

If Nanjo was the one confirming the deaths of the 6 in the shed, he could have very well lied about some of their deaths. Krauss is out of the question, since half of his face was shown. We cannot even confirm if Shannon was dead since it was only Kanon, Hideyoshi and Nanjo that apparently saw her corpse, and they did not let George see it either. (I rewatched the scene and wondered how Kanon can be so calm?)

Question comes who took the key out of Maria's letter and returned it. Jessica may be an accomplice, or anyone else.

Then comes the burnt corpse of Kinzo. It may have very well been Krauss's corpse used afterwards, and having his face all burnt off, and his genetically inherited 6 foot disease used as fake evidence that it is Kinzo's real corpse.

Also I dunno why Rudolf claimed he was gonna die before the night, it must mean he knows something that may set motives clear.
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