Anime DVD/BD Sales in Japan: Discussion

[Kirarakim]

I never thought it was the greatest anime of all time but I still think it is the greatest anime of 2011 and that is certainly not going to change because of sales figures.

Sales hardly equal quality. While I did really enjoy most of the top sellers this year that is rarely the case.

And it didn't sell poorly it just wasn't a breakthrough hit. There is a difference.

[Triple_R]

Anime shows that started airing in Summer 2011 simply didn't sell all that well as a group.

Lots of them fell short (some well short) of how much they were projected to sell by some of the more avid anime Blu-Ray sales watchers/speculators. It was more than just Idolmaster and Mawaru Penguindrum. For example, Usagi Drop pulling in less than 4 K in Blu-Rays alone is also pretty disappointing.

I wonder if the anime blu-ray sales world might start to be falling back down to Earth after the phenomenal sales success of Winter 2011 and Spring 2011 anime shows.

What I'll be looking to see is if any Fall 2011 anime shows can crack 20K, and also how many crack 10K. If It's 1 or less for 20K and 4 or less for 10K, then I think the blu-ray/dvd anime sales world has cooled off a bit and is settling back into a pre-2011 level of sales success.

[relentlessflame]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

Anime shows that started airing in Summer 2011 simply didn't sell all that well as a group.

Lots of them fell short (some well short) of how much they were projected to sell by some of the more avid anime Blu-Ray sales watchers/speculators. It was more than just Idolmaster and Mawaru Penguindrum. For example, Usagi Drop pulling in less than 4 K in Blu-Rays alone is also pretty disappointing.

Well, excepting the Idolmaster issue I explained earlier (the quoted figures do not by any means tell the full story), I think part of this is that the algorithm the sales speculators are using (based on Amazon pre-order rankings) is just not very accurate or complete (since it is only Amazon after all). After a number of series in the Spring exceeded predictions, I think people started to be optimistic and inflate their expectations for other shows. Keep in mind also that people are still in the process of buying Spring series Blu-Rays at the moment, so that money still being spent can't necessarily also go towards new shows. And also, people are asked to buy the Summer series Blu-Rays at the time when they already know what Fall series are out or coming out, so some people may decide to hold back and save for the Fall shows. It would probably be more instructive to look at some sort of rolling average to see how much total money is being invested on home media at any point in time (which I suspect hasn't dropped).

In the end, YuruYuri's sales are quite solid for that genre of show, and Idolmaster's sales will certainly be satisfactory when you include the Limited Edition Game Bundle. I think the sales are still pretty robust when you consider the "carry-over".

[Suzuku]

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

Well, excepting the Idolmaster issue I explained earlier (the quoted figures do not by any means tell the full story), I think part of this is that the algorithm the sales speculators are using (based on Amazon pre-order rankings) is just not very accurate or complete (since it is only Amazon after all).

I wouldn't say that, it's more like if a show lingers on Amazon too long or is in the top 10 and just drops out from there and linger in the bottom 100 for a while then the sales estimations will be inflated. Penguindrum and iM@S suffered from both of those (iM@S to a lesser extent), and Usagi Drop suffered from one. The estimations for Penguindrum's proceeding volumes are much more in-line with reality because they never hit the top 10 like Penguindrum vol 1 did, which was a result of being registered three weeks after the initial airing and having all that fandom build-up.

Some shows are indeed anomalies though, like Aria. In general Amazon and Amazon Stalker are reliable though.

Originally Posted by Triple_R

I wonder if the anime blu-ray sales world might start to be falling back down to Earth after the phenomenal sales success of Winter 2011 and Spring 2011 anime shows.

Summer is always the least fruitful season of the year, just look back at past years. Hell, in comparison to a lot of summers past this year's harvest is impressive, especially considering how many guaranteed-to-sale shows there are in fall..

What I'll be looking to see is if any Fall 2011 anime shows can crack 20K, and also how many crack 10K. If It's 1 or less for 20K and 4 or less for 10K, then I think the blu-ray/dvd anime sales world has cooled off a bit and is settling back into a pre-2011 level of sales success.

There are already four guaranteed 10k sellers with Guilty Crown looking like a possible fifth.

[ahelo]

Originally Posted by Kirarakim

I was never expecting Mawaru Penguindrum to sell that well. I don't think it has a hook that will get in male or female anime fans like Ano Hana & Tiger & Bunny. I am not really sure who Penguindrum targets in Japan? Ikuhara Fans?

Actually I think it did pretty good all things considering.

Actually that's a really good question? As much as I love the show, who the hell are the target fans of Penguindrum?

[Ithekro]

People with weird fetishes? "Rock over Japan" fans?

[Suzuku]

I'd say people who can appreciate Ikuhara's use of surrealism and symbolism. Basically, those who like to dissect art. I'd imagine there aren't a lot of anime collectors who enjoy looking for the deeper meaning of a certain scene, but there is certainly a faction like that out there in the community, however small it may be.

[relentlessflame]

Originally Posted by Suzuku

I'd say people who can appreciate Ikuhara's use of surrealism and symbolism. Basically, those who like to dissect art.

Yeah, I think that's probably as good of a categorization as any. I'd call it an "arthouse" anime -- the sort that will be endlessly-fascinating to a small but vocal group of hardcore fans. So in that sense, the sales are actually quite reasonable and even impressive. A lot of "arthouse" anime end up being total market flops, which is why there aren't that many of them (except when financed by groups who don't care about merchandise sales and are doing it more because they can).

[ahelo]

Penguindrum really is the artsy anime so I guess it would be correct that its biggest fans are those who do expect more from anime rather than the usual tropes or just people who like things done unconventionally. But Penguindrum does appeal to a lot of people so that would mean people really have good taste sometimes.

And counting the DVD sales (if there are any) Penguindrum really isn't a disappointment. 5000 is above the average Manabi-line; though the question would be the production budget since Penguindrum does look amazing

[relentlessflame]

Originally Posted by ahelo

Penguindrum really is the artsy anime so I guess it would be correct that its biggest fans are those who do expect more from anime rather than the usual tropes or just people who like things done unconventionally. But Penguindrum does appeal to a lot of people so that would mean people really have good taste sometimes.

Well I don't really think we should get into the "good taste" debate, because that's a pointless rat hole. I do think there is a good balance between elements that are relatable (some of the characters, their struggles, etc.) and elements that are trippy/artistic/bizarre, and that balance is very important if you want to get some level of "mass appeal".

In any case, more detailed analysis of Penguindrum and it's appeal should probably head to the Penguindrum sub-forum so this thread doesn't go too much more off-topic. Here we should really stay focused mostly on the sales. (edit: which you just edited in )

[Westlo]

I don't know why anyone would gloat over Penguin Drum selling only at a decent level. Apart from the obvious sales =! quality argument it's not like MPD is a show that needs to sell. It's not a light novel series that's getting 4 of the first 10 LNs adapted and we'll never see the rest of it animated if it flopped. It's not a manga series that will adapt the first 50 chapters of a 120+ chapter and counting...

[relentlessflame]

Originally Posted by Westlo

I don't know why anyone would gloat over Penguin Drum selling only at a decent level. Apart from the obvious sales =! quality argument it's not like MPD is a show that needs to sell. It's not a light novel series that's getting 4 of the first 10 LNs adapted and we'll never see the rest of it animated if it flopped. It's not a manga series that will adapt the first 50 chapters of a 120+ chapter and counting...

Well, I'm not sure about "gloating", but the two obvious reasons to be pleased with decent sales would be: 1) the producers may have recouped their investment (since anime-original shows don't have quite as many other sources to draw on), 2) presumably increases the likelihood for other similar shows to be green-lit (including possible sequels/spin-offs).

[Last Sinner]

July in a nutshell: 2 bishie/fujioshi oriented series get decent profits. A handful of generic moe shows get break even to slight profit. Usagi Drop does better than most noitaminA titles this year but nowhere near AnoHana.

October, expecting a race between Fate/Zero and Boku wa Todomachi for highest sales for a title starting that season. Persona 4 and Horizon pre-orders suggest existing fandom had enough faith/saw what they wanted early and bought in, so they'll get decent profits. I have a fool's hope Chihayafuru and Mirai Nikki could win over enough people to part money for them.

[0utf0xZer0]

I keep wondering if the reason why Yuruyuri and Ro-kyu-bu managed to buck the "summer sells like crap" trend is because unlike most genres, the "moe slice of life" genre actually didn't have a very strong spring.

[darkchibi07]

Granted I hope Yuru Yuri's unexpecteded success would be used as a bridge to bring forth more yuri-flavored anime series.

[ahelo]

Originally Posted by 0utf0xZer0

I keep wondering if the reason why Yuruyuri and Ro-kyu-bu managed to buck the "summer sells like crap" trend is because unlike most genres, the "moe slice of life" genre actually didn't have a very strong spring.

Moe fans have a bigger allowance than others. Even stuff like A-Channel got a pretty decent selling. While Nichijou technically got terrible numbers, without considering the production, its okay.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by 0utf0xZer0

I keep wondering if the reason why Yuruyuri and Ro-kyu-bu managed to buck the "summer sells like crap" trend is because unlike most genres, the "moe slice of life" genre actually didn't have a very strong spring.

K-On/Key fans were kind of freed up this year, as KyoAni did nothing but Nichijou for four seasons straight.

So that was a large untapped market. I do think that Yuruyuri and Ro-Kyu-Bu tapped into that market (as did Anohana and Hanasaku Iroha in the Spring).

[Suzuku]

Originally Posted by Last Sinner

July in a nutshell: 2 bishie/fujioshi oriented series get decent profits. A handful of generic moe shows get break even to slight profit. Usagi Drop does better than most noitaminA titles this year but nowhere near AnoHana.

October, expecting a race between Fate/Zero and Boku wa Todomachi for highest sales for a title starting that season. Persona 4 and Horizon pre-orders suggest existing fandom had enough faith/saw what they wanted early and bought in, so they'll get decent profits. I have a fool's hope Chihayafuru and Mirai Nikki could win over enough people to part money for them.

Haganai is performing pretty low actually. It's not doing bad, but at this rate it won't even touch Horizon in sales, let alone Fate/Zero which is tearing up the charts.

[ahelo]

Does anyone know the pre-orders for Guilty Crown and how its doing now? I'm quite curious considering the varied reactions of audiences.

[Suzuku]

Originally Posted by ahelo

Does anyone know the pre-orders for Guilty Crown and how its doing now? I'm quite curious considering the varied reactions of audiences.

It's the fifth top selling show of the season and is on track to sale over 10k.